基于集对分析与可变模糊集的城市水资源安全评价
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摘要
城市水资源安全定量评价对于制定合理的城市水资源发展战略,促进水资源可持续利用,实现社会经济可持续发展圴具有重要的意义。为此,建立了包括水量安全、水环境安全和社会经济安全3个子系统在内的城市水资源安全评价指标体系。借助于层次分析法和熵值法得到了评价指标的组合权重,构建了集对分析与可变模糊集耦合的城市水资源安全评价模型,并以广州市为例,应用该模型分析了2004～2014年广州市水资源安全状况及其主要障碍因子。分析结果表明:广州市水资源安全水平总体上在不断提高,安全级别从较不安全上升至临界安全水平;水量安全是影响广州市水资源安全的首要因素,人均水资源量、产水模数、客水比例等是阻碍水资源安全水平提升的主要障碍因子。评价模型能够较客观地反映城市水资源安全的时序演变特性和主要制约因素,评价结果比较贴近实际情况,可为城市水资源安全评价提供一种有效可行而又直观的方法。
Quantitative evaluation of urban water resources security has great significance for making reasonable development strategy of urban water resources, promoting sustainable utilization of water resources, realizing sustainable development of social economy. An index system of water resources security evaluation is established, including water resources quantity security, water environment security and social and economic security subsystems. Combined weights of indexes are determined using analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and entropy value method. The model of urban water resources security evaluation is constructed based on the set pair analysis(SPA) and the variable fuzzy sets(VFS). Water resources security of Guangzhou and its main obstacle factors are analyzed from 2004 to 2014. The result shows that there is a tendency of gradual improvement in water resources security conditions in Guangzhou, upgrading from "less safety" to "critical safety" level. The primary factor affecting water resources security is water resources quantity security. Main obstacles hindering water resources security level of Guangzhou are water resources quantity per capita, water resources quantity per unit area, and guest water proportion. Evaluation model is more objective in reflecting the temporal evolution characteristics of urban water resources security and main restrictive factors. The result is in line with reality. The proposed model provides a practical and intuitive way for evaluating urban water resources security.
Quantitative evaluation of urban water resources security has great significance for making reasonable development strategy of urban water resources, promoting sustainable utilization of water resources, realizing sustainable development of social economy. An index system of water resources security evaluation is established, including water resources quantity security, water environment security and social and economic security subsystems. Combined weights of indexes are determined using analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and entropy value method. The model of urban water resources security evaluation is constructed based on the set pair analysis(SPA) and the variable fuzzy sets(VFS). Water resources security of Guangzhou and its main obstacle factors are analyzed from 2004 to 2014. The result shows that there is a tendency of gradual improvement in water resources security conditions in Guangzhou, upgrading from "less safety" to "critical safety" level. The primary factor affecting water resources security is water resources quantity security. Main obstacles hindering water resources security level of Guangzhou are water resources quantity per capita, water resources quantity per unit area, and guest water proportion. Evaluation model is more objective in reflecting the temporal evolution characteristics of urban water resources security and main restrictive factors. The result is in line with reality. The proposed model provides a practical and intuitive way for evaluating urban water resources security.
引文
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[16] 郭显光.改进的熵值法及其在经济效益评价中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998,18(12):98-102.
[17] 赵克勤,米红.非传统安全与集对分析[M].北京:知识产权出版社,2007.
[18] 王文圣,金菊良,丁晶,等.水资源系统评价新方法:集对评价[J].中国科学E辑(技术科学),2009,39(9):1529-1534.
[19] 陈守煜.可变模糊集理论与模型及其应用[M].大连:大连理工大学出版社,2009.
[20] 汪明武,李丽,金菊良.围岩稳定性集对分析:可变模糊集综合评价模型[J].岩土工程学报,2008,30(6):941-944.
[21] 程乾生.属性识别理论模型及其应用[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),1997,33(1):12-20.
[22] 李新举,方玉东,田素锋,等.黄河三角洲垦利县可持续土地利用障碍因素分析[J].农业工程学报,2007,23(7):71-75.
[2] 陈筠婷,徐建刚,许有鹏.非传统安全视角下的城市水安全概念辨析[J].水科学进展,2015,26(3):443-450.
[3] Bakker K.Water Security:Research Challenges and Opportunities[J].Science,2012,337(6097):914-915.
[4] Norman E S,Dunn G,Bakker Karen,et al.Water security assessment:Integrating governance and freshwater indicators[J].Water Recourse Management,2013(27):535-551.
[5] Christenson E,Bain R,Wright J,et al.Examining the influence of urban definition when assessing relative safety of drinking-water in Nigeria[J].Science of the Total Environment,2014(490):301-312.
[6] Marlow D R,Moglia M,Cook S,et al.Towards sustainable urban water management:A critical reassessment[J].Water Research,2013(47):7150-7161.
[7] 杨明杰,杨广高,普章,等.基于SD模型的干旱区城市水资源供需分析:以新疆克拉玛依市为例[J].人民长江,2018,49(5):45-51,73.
[8] 曹永强,朱明明,张亮亮,等.基于可变模糊评价法的大连市水资源承载力分析[J].水利水运工程学报,2016(4):40-46.
[9] 王绍玉,刘佳.城市洪水灾害易损性多属性动态评价[J].水科学进展,2012,23(3):334-340.
[10] 高媛媛,王红瑞,许新宜,等.水资源安全评价模型构建与应用:以福建省泉州市为例[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(2):204-214.
[11] 焦士兴,王腊春,尹义星,等.基于集对分析原理和熵权理论的水资源安全评价:以河南省安阳市为例[J].安全与环境学报,2011,11(6):92-97.
[12] 史正涛,刘新有,黄英,等.基于边际效益递减原理的城市水安全评价方法[J].水利学报,2010,41(5):545-552.
[13] 李艳丽,苏维词,杨吉,等.基于熵权模糊综合模型的重庆市水环境安全评价[J].人民长江,2017,48(9):25-29.
[14] 张俊艳,韩文秀.城市水安全问题及其对策探讨[J].北京科技大学学报(社会科学版),2005,21(2):78-81
[15] 叶义成,柯丽华,黄德育.系统综合评价技术及其应用[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,2006.
[16] 郭显光.改进的熵值法及其在经济效益评价中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998,18(12):98-102.
[17] 赵克勤,米红.非传统安全与集对分析[M].北京:知识产权出版社,2007.
[18] 王文圣,金菊良,丁晶,等.水资源系统评价新方法:集对评价[J].中国科学E辑(技术科学),2009,39(9):1529-1534.
[19] 陈守煜.可变模糊集理论与模型及其应用[M].大连:大连理工大学出版社,2009.
[20] 汪明武,李丽,金菊良.围岩稳定性集对分析:可变模糊集综合评价模型[J].岩土工程学报,2008,30(6):941-944.
[21] 程乾生.属性识别理论模型及其应用[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),1997,33(1):12-20.
[22] 李新举,方玉东,田素锋,等.黄河三角洲垦利县可持续土地利用障碍因素分析[J].农业工程学报,2007,23(7):71-75.
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