基于生态足迹的西藏耕地生态承载力动态分析
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摘要
依据相关的统计年鉴,运用生态足迹法对2000-2017年西藏耕地生态足迹与生态承载力及可持续发展指数进行了分析,得出了2000～2017年间西藏耕地生态承载力动态变化趋势结果。结果表明:西藏当前为耕地生态盈余,可持续发展指数为0.5063,属于可持续发展,农业县为0.4811,为弱不可持续发展;半农半牧县为0.5670,为弱可持续发展。研究期间,西藏耕地生态承载力一直在盈余与赤字临界点徘徊。根据模型预测到2020年,西藏人均耕地生态足迹和人均耕地生态承载力分别为0.2593和0.2573。
According to the relevant statistical yearbooks, the ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity and sustainable development index of cultivated land in Tibet from 2000 to 2017 were analyzed by the ecological footprint method, and the dynamic change trend of cultivated land ecological carrying capacity in Tibet from 2000 to 2017 was obtained. The results show that the current ecological surplus of cultivated land in Tibet is 0.5063, which belongs to sustainable development. Agricultural county is 0.4811, which is weak unsustainable development; semiagricultural and semi-pastoral county is 0.5670, which is weak sustainable development. During the study period, the ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land in Tibet has been hovering at the critical point of surplus and deficit. According to the model, by 2020, the ecological footprint of per capita cultivated land and the ecological carrying capacity of per capita cultivated land in Tibet will be 0.2593 and 0.2573, respectively.
According to the relevant statistical yearbooks, the ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity and sustainable development index of cultivated land in Tibet from 2000 to 2017 were analyzed by the ecological footprint method, and the dynamic change trend of cultivated land ecological carrying capacity in Tibet from 2000 to 2017 was obtained. The results show that the current ecological surplus of cultivated land in Tibet is 0.5063, which belongs to sustainable development. Agricultural county is 0.4811, which is weak unsustainable development; semiagricultural and semi-pastoral county is 0.5670, which is weak sustainable development. During the study period, the ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land in Tibet has been hovering at the critical point of surplus and deficit. According to the model, by 2020, the ecological footprint of per capita cultivated land and the ecological carrying capacity of per capita cultivated land in Tibet will be 0.2593 and 0.2573, respectively.
引文
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[2]Park,R. F&Burgess, E.W, An Introduction to the Science of Sociology[M], Chicqgo,1921.
[3]William Vogt, Road to Survival[M], London:victor Gollancz Ltd, 1949.
[4]Millington, R.&Gifford, R. Energy and How We Live,Australian UNESCO Seminar[M], Committee for Man and Biosphere, 1973.
[5]赵卫,渭寿,刘波等.西藏地区草地承载力及其时空变化[J].科学通报,2015(21):2014-2028
[6]畅慧勤.西藏阿里草原生态承载力研究[D].杨林;西北农林科技大学.2012,5.
[7]苏杭森,杨小林,王忠斌.西藏林芝工布江达自然保护区生态旅游地土地生态承载力变化分析[J].四川林勘设计,2012,4:41-43.
[8]张敏,马守春,王忠斌等.珠峰自然保护区旅游环境承载力评价指标体系研究[J].四川林勘设计,2012,9(3):16-21.
[9]徐霞辜世贤刘宝元等.西藏山南地区自然环境与土地人口承载力研究——以乃东县,琼结县,扎囊县与贡嘎县为例[J].水土保持研究,2007(1):29-32.
[10]张养安,郑志峰,王永红.汉中市水域生态承载力的研究与分析[J].水土保持学报,2017,10(5):356-360.
[11]Zhang Z Q, Xu Z M, Cheng G D. The concept of ecological footprints and computer models[J]. Ecological Economy,2000,(10):8-10.
[12]王宁,粟晓玲.陕西关中地区水资源生态足迹与生态赤字研究.[J].西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版,2013,41(3):221-227.
[13]李萍,孙自保等.基于生态足迹动态分析的西藏可持续性发展评估[J].水土保持学报,2015,12(6):327-331.
[14]安宝晨,程国栋.西藏生态足迹与承载力动态分析[J].生态学报,2014,34(4):1-8.
[15]刘钦普,林振山.江苏省耕地利用可持续动态性分析及预测[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(4):594-601.