基于Biome-BGC模型的北方杨树人工林碳水通量对气候变化的响应研究
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摘要
研究中国北方杨树人工林碳水通量对气候变化的响应,对于制定合理的经营管理措施以应对区域的气候变化具有重要意义。基于对杨树人工林碳水通量的连续监测数据和对Biome-BGC模型参数的校准,模拟分析杨树人工林碳水通量及水分利用效率(WUE)对气候变化(气温上升、降水变化和大气CO_2浓度上升)的响应规律。结果表明,Biome-BGC模型校准后显著提升了其对杨树人工林碳水通量的模拟精度,对GPP、ET模拟结果的Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(NS)分别为0.69和0.63,各自提高了64.3%和80%,均方根误差(RMSE)则分别降低至1.94 g C m~(-2) d~(-1)和0.88 mm/d,分别下降了26.5%和25.4%。在未来气候变化情景中,单独的气温上升、降水增加和大气CO_2浓度上升分别造成GPP的降低、升高和升高,其中GPP对大气CO_2浓度上升的响应程度(28%—44%)远高于对气温上升(1%—5%)和降水变化(3%—10%)的,ET则主要受降水的影响,响应程度在5%—14%之间。GPP和ET对气候变化的响应则受不同水平的气温上升、降水变化和大气CO_2浓度上升三者综合作用的影响。基于GPP和ET对气候变化的响应,WUE随气温上升、降水增加表现为降低趋势,随降水减少和大气CO_2浓度升高则呈升高趋势;其对未来气候中大气CO_2浓度升高的响应程度为27.7%—43.6%,远高于对气温上升(1.2%—5.8%)和降水变化(1.2%—3.5%)的,说明未来气候变化中大气CO_2浓度上升是促进杨树生长的主要因素;其中相对于当前WUE(2.8 g C/kg H_2O),C2T2P1和C0T3P0情景下WUE的升高和降低幅度最大,分别为45.4%和5.8%。
It is of great importance to project the response of carbon and water fluxes of terrestrial ecosystems with climate change and to develop science-based biological climate change mitigation strategies. We used our continuously measured long-term carbon and water flux data for a poplar plantation(Populus euramericana CV. "74/76") to calibrate and validate a widely applied Biome-BGC model to accurately simulate gross primary productivity(GPP), evapotranspiration(ET), and water use efficiency(WUE) and to project their responses to climate change. The climate change scenarios were designed with different levels of rising temperature(T), precipitation change(P), and atmospheric CO_2 concentration(C). Results showed that the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient(NS) of the simulated GPP and ET were 0.69 and 0.63, respectively, with a root mean square error(RMSE) of 1.94 g C m~(-2)?d~(-1)and 0.88 mm/d, respectively, which indicated that the calibrated Biome-BGC model could be effectively used for modeling their responses to climate change. Under future climate change scenarios, the overall responses of GPP and ET were influenced by a combined effect of C, T, and P. In addition, the individual responses of GPP and ET to these climatic factors varied. Rising temperature and decreasing precipitation caused a decrease in GPP, while an increase in precipitation and atmospheric CO_(2 )concentration resulted in an increase in GPP. The enhancement of GPP with increasing atmospheric CO_(2 )concentration was 28%—44%, which was much higher than that of rising temperature(1%—5%) and precipitation(3%—10%). However, the variations in ET only responded to a precipitation change of 5%—14%. As a result, WUE(GPP/ET) decreased with rising temperature and an increase in precipitation, while increased with a decrease in precipitation and rising atmospheric CO_2 concentration. The rising atmospheric CO_2 concentration enhanced WUE by 27.7%—43.6%, which was much higher than that effect of rising temperature(1.2%—5.8%) and precipitation(1.2%—3.5%). Compared with the current WUE(2.8 g C/kg H_2O), the largest increase and decrease in WUE would occur under scenarios C2 T2 P1 and C0 T3 P0, which are 45.4% and 5.8%, respectively.
It is of great importance to project the response of carbon and water fluxes of terrestrial ecosystems with climate change and to develop science-based biological climate change mitigation strategies. We used our continuously measured long-term carbon and water flux data for a poplar plantation(Populus euramericana CV. "74/76") to calibrate and validate a widely applied Biome-BGC model to accurately simulate gross primary productivity(GPP), evapotranspiration(ET), and water use efficiency(WUE) and to project their responses to climate change. The climate change scenarios were designed with different levels of rising temperature(T), precipitation change(P), and atmospheric CO_2 concentration(C). Results showed that the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient(NS) of the simulated GPP and ET were 0.69 and 0.63, respectively, with a root mean square error(RMSE) of 1.94 g C m~(-2)?d~(-1)and 0.88 mm/d, respectively, which indicated that the calibrated Biome-BGC model could be effectively used for modeling their responses to climate change. Under future climate change scenarios, the overall responses of GPP and ET were influenced by a combined effect of C, T, and P. In addition, the individual responses of GPP and ET to these climatic factors varied. Rising temperature and decreasing precipitation caused a decrease in GPP, while an increase in precipitation and atmospheric CO_(2 )concentration resulted in an increase in GPP. The enhancement of GPP with increasing atmospheric CO_(2 )concentration was 28%—44%, which was much higher than that of rising temperature(1%—5%) and precipitation(3%—10%). However, the variations in ET only responded to a precipitation change of 5%—14%. As a result, WUE(GPP/ET) decreased with rising temperature and an increase in precipitation, while increased with a decrease in precipitation and rising atmospheric CO_2 concentration. The rising atmospheric CO_2 concentration enhanced WUE by 27.7%—43.6%, which was much higher than that effect of rising temperature(1.2%—5.8%) and precipitation(1.2%—3.5%). Compared with the current WUE(2.8 g C/kg H_2O), the largest increase and decrease in WUE would occur under scenarios C2 T2 P1 and C0 T3 P0, which are 45.4% and 5.8%, respectively.
引文
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[2] 方升佐.中国杨树人工林培育技术研究进展.应用生态学报,2008,19(10):2308- 2316.
[3] Migliavacca M,Meroni M,Manca G,Matteucci G,Montagnani L,Grassi G,Zenone T,Teobaldelli M,Goded I,Colombo R,Seufert G.Seasonal and interannual patterns of carbon and water fluxes of a poplar plantation under peculiar eco-climatic conditions.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2009,149(9):1460- 1476.
[4] Kim H S,Oren R,Hinckley T M.Actual and potential transpiration and carbon assimilation in an irrigated poplar plantation.Tree Physiology,2008,28(4):559- 577.
[5] Li Y Z,Qin H Y,Xie Y H,Wang W,Chen X S,Zhang C M.Physiological mechanism for the reduction in soil water in poplar (Populus deltoides) plantations in Dongting Lake wetlands.Wetlands Ecology and Management,2014,22(1):25- 33.
[6] Stanturf J A,van Oosten C.Operational poplar and willow culture//Isebrands J G,Richardson J,eds.Poplars and Willows:Trees for Society and the Environment.Oxfordshire,England:CABI,2012:200- 257.
[7] 康满春,蔡永茂,王小平,查同刚,朱丽平,牛勇,周洁,张志强.表层阻力和环境因素对杨树(Populus sp.)人工林蒸散发的控制.生态学报,2016,36(17):5508- 5518.
[8] Zhou J,Zhang Z Q,Sun G,Fang X R,Zha T G,McNulty S,Chen J Q,Jin Y,Noormets A.Response of ecosystem carbon fluxes to drought events in a poplar plantation in Northern China.Forest Ecology and Management,2013,300:33- 42.
[9] Migliavacca M,Meroni,M,Busetto L,Colombo R,Zenone T,Matteucci G,Manca G,Seufert G.Modeling gross primary production of agro-forestry ecosystems by assimilation of satellite-derived information in a process-based model.Sensors,2009,9(2):922- 942.
[10] Chiesi M,Chirici G,Corona P,Duce P,Salvati R,Spano D,Vaccari F P,Maselli F.Use of BIOME-BGC to simulate water and carbon fluxes within Mediterranean macchia.iForest-Biogeosciences and Forestry,2012,5(5):38- 43.
[11] Hashimoto H,Melton F,Ichii K,Milesi C,Wang W L,Nemani R R.Evaluating the impacts of climate and elevated carbon dioxide on tropical rainforests of the western Amazon basin using ecosystem models and satellite data.Global Change Biology,2010,16(1):255- 271.
[12] Dai Z,Johnson K D,Birdsey R A,Hernandez-Stefanoni J L,Dupuy J M.Assessing the effect of climate change on carbon sequestration in a Mexican dry forest in the Yucatan Peninsula.Ecological Complexity,2015,24:46- 56.
[13] Churkina G,Tenhunen J,Thornton P,Falge E M,Elbers J A,Erhard M,Grünwald T,Kowalski A S,Rannik ü,Sprinz D.Analyzing the ecosystem carbon dynamics of four european coniferous forests using a biogeochemistry model.Ecosystems,2003,6(2):168- 184.
[14] Eastaugh C S,P?tzelsberger E,Hasenauer H.Assessing the impacts of climate change and nitrogen deposition on Norway spruce (Picea abies L.Karst) growth in Austria with BIOME-BGC.Tree Physiology,2011,31(3):262- 274.
[15] Hlásny T,Barcza Z,Fabrika M,Balázs B,Churkina G,Pajtík J,Sedmák R,Turˇáni M.Climate change impacts on growth and carbon balance of forests in Central Europe.Climate Research,2011,47(3):219- 236.
[16] Jochheim H,Puhlmann M,Beese F,Berthold D,Einert P,Kallweit R,Konopatzky A,Meesenburg H,Meiwes K J,Raspe S,Schulte-Bisping H,Schulz C.Modelling the carbon budget of intensive forest monitoring sites in Germany using the simulation model BIOME-BGC.iForest-Biogeosciences and Forestry,2009,2:7- 10.
[17] Merganicová K,Merganic J,Hasenauer H.Assessing the carbon flux dynamics within virgin forests:the case study ′Babia hora′ in Slovakia.Austrian Journal of Forest Science,2012,129(1):1- 21.
[18] Tatarinov F A,Cienciala E,Vopenka P,Avilov V.Effect of climate change and nitrogen deposition on central-European forests:Regional-scale simulation for South Bohemia.Forest Ecology and Management,2011,262(10):1919- 1927.
[19] Ueyama M,Ichii K,Hirata R,Takagi K,Asanuma J,Machimura T,Nakai Y,Ohta T,Saigusa N,Takahashi Y,Hirano T.Simulating carbon and water cycles of larch forests in East Asia by the BIOME-BGC model with AsiaFlux data.Biogeosciences,2010,7(3):959- 977.
[20] 吴玉莲,王襄平,李巧燕,孙阎.长白山阔叶红松林净初级生产力对气候变化的响应:基于BIOME-BGC模型的分析.北京大学学报:自然科学版,2014,50(3):577- 586.
[21] 何丽鸿,王海燕,王璐,王岳.长白落叶松林生态系统净初级生产力对气候变化的响应.北京林业大学学报,2015,37(9):28- 36.
[22] 张艺,余新晓,范敏锐,常存,陆晓宇.北京山区刺槐林净初级生产力对气候变化的响应.水土保持研究,2012,19(3):151- 155.
[23] 彭俊杰,何兴元,陈振举,崔明星,张先亮,周长虹.华北地区油松林生态系统对气候变化和CO2浓度升高的响应——基于BIOME-BGC模型和树木年轮的模拟.应用生态学报,2012,23(7):1733- 1742.
[24] 张文海,吕锡芝,余新晓,范敏锐.气候和CO2变化对北京山区油松林NPP的影响.广东农业科学,2012,(6):4- 7.
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