河南省冬小麦拔节-抽穗期干旱天气指数保险研究
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摘要
利用1971—2014年河南103个台站地面气象逐日观测资料和冬小麦产量资料,选择对产量有明显影响的拔节-抽穗期干旱作为天气指数保险设计的气象灾害类型,分析了河南冬小麦拔节-抽穂期干旱发生基本规律,并开展干旱风险评估。定义降水负距平百分率作为冬小麦干旱天气指数,并利用173组典型灾害样本建立了冬小麦拔节-抽穗期干旱天气指数与减产率的关系模型;在此基础上,初步设计了冬小麦干旱天气指数保险产品,并基于风险评估结果对天气指数产品费率进行修订。结果表明,河南冬小麦干旱程度总体由西南向东北增强;拔节-抽穂期,豫北地区的干旱风险最高;其次是豫西北、豫东和豫中;豫西南和豫南的风险相对较低;基于天气指数模型和历史赔付状况分析,将降水负距平百分率60%作为触发值,并确定了不同干旱天气指数等级的赔付标准;基于干旱风险评估结果修订后的河南各地区的天气指数保险费率在9. 2%～11. 2%,单位面积保费在29. 8～36. 3元·亩~(-1)。
Based on surface meteorological observations and yield data of winter wheat at 103 stations in Henan Province from 1971 to 2014, the characteristics of winter wheat drought damage were analyzed. Besides, the drought condition at jointing-heading stage, which has a serious effect on yield was selected as a meteorological disaster type of the model design of the weather index insurance and the disaster risk assessment was carried out. Negative anomaly percentage of precipitation was defined as drought index of winter wheat and the model that described the relationship between drought index and yield reduction was also established using 173 groups of typical disaster samples. On this basis, the weather index insurance product of winter wheat drought damage was developed and the premium rates of different regions were revised based on the results of the drought risk assessment. The results showed that the level of winter wheat drought increases from the southwestern part to the northeastern part in Henan Province. During the jointing-heading stage, the highest risk was found in the northern part, followed by the northwestern,eastern and central parts, and the risk of the southwestern and the southern parts is relatively lower.Based on the drought index model and the analysis of historical payments, negative anomaly percentage of precipitation of 60% was considered as the payment trigger value, and the payment standards of different levels of drought weather index were determined. Considering the results of the drought risk assessment,the revised premium rates of different regions in Henan are 9. 2%-11. 2%, and corresponding premiums of unit area are 29. 8 — 36. 3 Yuan · mu~(-1).
Based on surface meteorological observations and yield data of winter wheat at 103 stations in Henan Province from 1971 to 2014, the characteristics of winter wheat drought damage were analyzed. Besides, the drought condition at jointing-heading stage, which has a serious effect on yield was selected as a meteorological disaster type of the model design of the weather index insurance and the disaster risk assessment was carried out. Negative anomaly percentage of precipitation was defined as drought index of winter wheat and the model that described the relationship between drought index and yield reduction was also established using 173 groups of typical disaster samples. On this basis, the weather index insurance product of winter wheat drought damage was developed and the premium rates of different regions were revised based on the results of the drought risk assessment. The results showed that the level of winter wheat drought increases from the southwestern part to the northeastern part in Henan Province. During the jointing-heading stage, the highest risk was found in the northern part, followed by the northwestern,eastern and central parts, and the risk of the southwestern and the southern parts is relatively lower.Based on the drought index model and the analysis of historical payments, negative anomaly percentage of precipitation of 60% was considered as the payment trigger value, and the payment standards of different levels of drought weather index were determined. Considering the results of the drought risk assessment,the revised premium rates of different regions in Henan are 9. 2%-11. 2%, and corresponding premiums of unit area are 29. 8 — 36. 3 Yuan · mu~(-1).
引文
陈怀亮.邓伟,张雪芬,等,2006.河南小麦生产农业气象灾害风险分析及区划[J].自然灾害学报,15(1),135-143. Chen H L,Deng W,Zhang X F, et al.2006. Analysis and zoning of agrometeorological disasters risk for wheat growing in Henan Province[J]. J Natural Disaster, 15(1):135-143(in Chinese).
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方文松,刘荣花,马志红,等,2008.河南省冬小麦干旱评估指标初探[J].气象与环境科学,31(3):12-14. Fang W S,Liu R H,Ma Z H,et al,2008. Preliminary study on drought evaluation indices of winter wheat in Henan[J]. Meteor Environ Sci,31(3):12-14(in Chinese).
胡雪琼,吉文娟,张茂松,等,2011.云南省冬小麦干旱灾损风险区划[J].大气科学学报,34(3):356-362. Hu X Q,Ji W J,Zhang M S,et al,2011. Drought risk regionalization for winter wheat in Yunnan Province[J]. Trans Atmos Sci, 34(3):356-362(in Chinese).
李思佳.2013.基于灾害风险分析的农业气象指数保险研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学.Li S J,2013.Study on agrometeorological index insurance based on disaster risk analysis[D]. Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(in Chinese).
廖要明,张存杰,2017.基于MCI的中国干早时空分布及灾情变化特征[J].气象,43(11):1402-1409. Liao Y M,Zhang C J,2017.Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and disaster change of drought in China based on meteorological drought composite index[J]. Meteor Mon,43(11):1402-1409(in Chinese).
刘布春,梅旭荣,2010.农业保险的理论与实践[M].北京:科学出版社.Liu B C,Mei X R,2010. Theory and Practice of Agricultural Insurance[M]. Beijing:Science Press(in Chinese).
刘荣花,2008.河南省冬小麦干早风险分析与评估技术研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学.Liu R H,2008. Study on drought risk analysis and assessment technology of winter wheat in Henan Province[D]. Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(in Chinese).
娄伟平,吉宗伟,邱新法,等,2011.茶叶霜冻气象指数保险设计[J].自然资源学报,26(12):2050-2060. Lou W P,Ji Z W,Qiu X F,et al,2011. Design of weather index insurance contact for tea frost[J].J Natural Resour,26(12):2050-2060(in Chinese).
陆魁东,黄晚华,方丽,等,2007.气象灾害指标在湖南春玉米种植区划中的应用[J].应用气象学报,18(4):548-554. Lu K D,HuangW H,Fang L,et al.2007. The climatic zoning of spring maize in Hunan based on meteorological disaster indexes[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,18(4):548-554(in Chinese).
马晓群,姚筠,许莹,2010.安徽省农作物干早损失动态评估模型及其试用[J].灾害学,25(1):13-17. Ma X Q,Yao Y,Xu Y,2010. A model for dynamic assessment of crop yield losses from drought and its tryout in Anhui Province[J]. J Catastrophology,25(1):13-17(in Chinese).
毛裕定,吴利红,苗长明,等,2007.浙江省柑桔冻害气象指数保险参考设计[J].中国农业气象,28(2),226-230. Mao Y D,Wu L H,Miao C M,et al,2007. A reference design for citrus freeze damage insurance by using meteorological index in Zhejiang Province[J]. Chinese J Agrometeor,28(2):226-230(in Chinese).
任义方,赵艳霞,王春乙,2011.河南省冬小麦干旱保险风险评估与区划[J].应用气象学报,22(5):537-548. Ren Y F,Zhao Y X,Wang C Y,2011. Winter wheat drought disaster insurance risk assessment and regionalization in Henan Province[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,22(5):537-548(in Chinese).
史培军,王静爱,叶涛,等,2011.“全国种植业保险区划”研究报告[R].北京:中国保险监督管理委员会.Shi P J, Wang J A,Ye T,et al,2011. National Crop Insurance Zoning Research Report[R]. Beijing:China Insurance Regulatory Commission(in Chinese).
孙劭,王东阡,尹宜舟,等,2018. 2017年全球,大天气气候事件及其成因[J].气象,44(4):556-564. Sun S, Wang D Q,Yin Y Z,et al,2018. Global major weather and climate events in 2017 and the possible causes[J]. Meteor Mon, 44(4):556-564(in Chinese).
庹国柱,冯文丽,2016.一本书明白农业保险[M].郑州:中原农民出版社.Tuo G Z,Feng W L,2016. A Book to Understand the Agricultural Insurance[M]. Zhengzhou:Zhongyuan Farmer Press(in Chinese).
王春乙,张雪芬,赵艳霞,2010.农业气象灾害影响评估与风险评价[M].北京:气象出版社.Wang C Y, Zhang X F,Zhao Y X,2010. Impact Assessment and Risk Evaluation of Agrometeorological Disasters[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press(in Chinese).
王永利,侯琼,苗百岭,等,2017.内蒙古马铃薯干早风险区划[J].应用气象学报,28(4):504-512. Wang Y L,Hou Q,Miao B L,et al, 2017. Drought risk regionalization of potatoes in Inner Mongolia[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,28(4):504-512(in Chinese).
吴荣军,史继清,关福来,等,2013.基于风险区划的农业干早保险费率厘定——以河北省冬麦区为例[J].气象,39(12):1649-1655.Wu R J,Shi J Q, Guan F L, et al,2013. Agricultural drought premium ratemaking based on risk zoning for winter wheat region in Hebei Province[J]. Meteor Mon,39(12):1649-1655(in Chinese).
杨丽,2013.山东省小麦玉米干早指数保险研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学. Yang L,2013. Design of wheat and corn drought index insurance in Shandong Province[D]. Nanjing:Nanjing Uni-versity of Information Science and Technology(in Chinese).
杨太明,刘布春,孙喜波,等,2013.安徽省冬小麦种植保险天气指数设计与应用[J].中国农业气象,34(2):229-235. Yang T M,Liu B C,Sun X B,et al,2013. Design and application of the weather indices of winter wheat planting insurance in Anhui Province[J]. Chinese J Agrometeor,34(2):229-235(in Chinese).
杨太明,孙喜波,刘布春,等,2015.安徽省水稻高温热害保险天气指数模型设计[J].中国农业气象,36(2):220-226. Yang T M,Sun X B,Liu B C,et al,2015. Design on weather indices model for insurance of rice heat damage in Anhui Province[J]. Chinese J Agrometeor,36(2):220-226(in Chinese).
杨太明,许莹,孙喜波,等,2016.安徽省夏玉米干旱天气指数保险产品设计及应用[J].气象,42(4):450-455. Yang T M,Xu Y,Sun X B,et al,2016. Design and application of the drought weather index insurance of summer corn in Anhui Province[J]. Meteor Mon,42(4):450-455(in Chinese).
张爱民,马晓群,杨太明,等,2007.安徽省旱涝灾害及其对农作物产量影响[J].应用气象学报,18(5):619-626.Zhang A M,Ma X Q,Yang T M,et al,2007. The influence of drought and waterlogging disasters on crop yields in Anhui Province[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,18(5):619-626(in Chinese).
张星,张春桂,吴菊薪,等,2009.福建农业气象灾害的产量灾损风险评估[J].自然灾害学报,18(1):90-94. Zhang X,Zhang C G,Wu J X,et al,2009. Risk assessment of yield losses from agrometeorological disasters in Fujian Province[J]. J Natural Disaster, 18(1):90-94(in Chinese).
朱琳,叶殿秀,陈建文,等,2002.陕西省冬小麦干旱风险分析及区划[J].应用气象学报,13(2):201-206. Zhu L,Ye D X,Chen J W,et al,2002. The drought risk assessment and division of winter wheat in Shaanxi Province[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci, 13(2):201-206(in Chinese).
Barnett B J,Mahul O,2007. Weather index insurance for agriculture and rural areas in lower-income countries[J]. Amer J Agric Econ,89(5):1241-1247.
Hess U,Syroka J,2005. Weather-based insurance in Southern Africa:The case of Malawi[M]//Agriculture and Rural Development Discussion. Washington,D C:The World Bank.
Karuaihe R N,Wang H H,Young D L,2006. Weather-based crop insurance contracts for African countries[C]//International Association of Agricultural Economists Conference. Gold Coast:International Association of Agricultural Economics.
Paulson N D, Hart C E, 2006. A spatial approach to addressing weather derivative basis risk:a drought insurance example[C]//2006 Annual Meeting of American Agricultural Economics Association. Long Beach:Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
Varangis P,Skees J, Barnett B,2005. Weather indexes for developing countries[M]//Dischel R S. Climate Risk and the Weather Market. London:World Bank,University of Kentucky and University of Georgia.
陈家金.李丽纯,林晶,等,2014.福建省枇杷气象灾害综合风险评估[J].应用气象学报,25(2), 232-241. Chen J J,Li L C, Lin J,et al,2014. Integrated risk evaluation on meteorological disasters of loquat in Fujian Province[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,25(2):232-241(in Chinese).
方文松,刘荣花,马志红,等,2008.河南省冬小麦干旱评估指标初探[J].气象与环境科学,31(3):12-14. Fang W S,Liu R H,Ma Z H,et al,2008. Preliminary study on drought evaluation indices of winter wheat in Henan[J]. Meteor Environ Sci,31(3):12-14(in Chinese).
胡雪琼,吉文娟,张茂松,等,2011.云南省冬小麦干旱灾损风险区划[J].大气科学学报,34(3):356-362. Hu X Q,Ji W J,Zhang M S,et al,2011. Drought risk regionalization for winter wheat in Yunnan Province[J]. Trans Atmos Sci, 34(3):356-362(in Chinese).
李思佳.2013.基于灾害风险分析的农业气象指数保险研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学.Li S J,2013.Study on agrometeorological index insurance based on disaster risk analysis[D]. Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(in Chinese).
廖要明,张存杰,2017.基于MCI的中国干早时空分布及灾情变化特征[J].气象,43(11):1402-1409. Liao Y M,Zhang C J,2017.Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and disaster change of drought in China based on meteorological drought composite index[J]. Meteor Mon,43(11):1402-1409(in Chinese).
刘布春,梅旭荣,2010.农业保险的理论与实践[M].北京:科学出版社.Liu B C,Mei X R,2010. Theory and Practice of Agricultural Insurance[M]. Beijing:Science Press(in Chinese).
刘荣花,2008.河南省冬小麦干早风险分析与评估技术研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学.Liu R H,2008. Study on drought risk analysis and assessment technology of winter wheat in Henan Province[D]. Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(in Chinese).
娄伟平,吉宗伟,邱新法,等,2011.茶叶霜冻气象指数保险设计[J].自然资源学报,26(12):2050-2060. Lou W P,Ji Z W,Qiu X F,et al,2011. Design of weather index insurance contact for tea frost[J].J Natural Resour,26(12):2050-2060(in Chinese).
陆魁东,黄晚华,方丽,等,2007.气象灾害指标在湖南春玉米种植区划中的应用[J].应用气象学报,18(4):548-554. Lu K D,HuangW H,Fang L,et al.2007. The climatic zoning of spring maize in Hunan based on meteorological disaster indexes[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,18(4):548-554(in Chinese).
马晓群,姚筠,许莹,2010.安徽省农作物干早损失动态评估模型及其试用[J].灾害学,25(1):13-17. Ma X Q,Yao Y,Xu Y,2010. A model for dynamic assessment of crop yield losses from drought and its tryout in Anhui Province[J]. J Catastrophology,25(1):13-17(in Chinese).
毛裕定,吴利红,苗长明,等,2007.浙江省柑桔冻害气象指数保险参考设计[J].中国农业气象,28(2),226-230. Mao Y D,Wu L H,Miao C M,et al,2007. A reference design for citrus freeze damage insurance by using meteorological index in Zhejiang Province[J]. Chinese J Agrometeor,28(2):226-230(in Chinese).
任义方,赵艳霞,王春乙,2011.河南省冬小麦干旱保险风险评估与区划[J].应用气象学报,22(5):537-548. Ren Y F,Zhao Y X,Wang C Y,2011. Winter wheat drought disaster insurance risk assessment and regionalization in Henan Province[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,22(5):537-548(in Chinese).
史培军,王静爱,叶涛,等,2011.“全国种植业保险区划”研究报告[R].北京:中国保险监督管理委员会.Shi P J, Wang J A,Ye T,et al,2011. National Crop Insurance Zoning Research Report[R]. Beijing:China Insurance Regulatory Commission(in Chinese).
孙劭,王东阡,尹宜舟,等,2018. 2017年全球,大天气气候事件及其成因[J].气象,44(4):556-564. Sun S, Wang D Q,Yin Y Z,et al,2018. Global major weather and climate events in 2017 and the possible causes[J]. Meteor Mon, 44(4):556-564(in Chinese).
庹国柱,冯文丽,2016.一本书明白农业保险[M].郑州:中原农民出版社.Tuo G Z,Feng W L,2016. A Book to Understand the Agricultural Insurance[M]. Zhengzhou:Zhongyuan Farmer Press(in Chinese).
王春乙,张雪芬,赵艳霞,2010.农业气象灾害影响评估与风险评价[M].北京:气象出版社.Wang C Y, Zhang X F,Zhao Y X,2010. Impact Assessment and Risk Evaluation of Agrometeorological Disasters[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press(in Chinese).
王永利,侯琼,苗百岭,等,2017.内蒙古马铃薯干早风险区划[J].应用气象学报,28(4):504-512. Wang Y L,Hou Q,Miao B L,et al, 2017. Drought risk regionalization of potatoes in Inner Mongolia[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,28(4):504-512(in Chinese).
吴荣军,史继清,关福来,等,2013.基于风险区划的农业干早保险费率厘定——以河北省冬麦区为例[J].气象,39(12):1649-1655.Wu R J,Shi J Q, Guan F L, et al,2013. Agricultural drought premium ratemaking based on risk zoning for winter wheat region in Hebei Province[J]. Meteor Mon,39(12):1649-1655(in Chinese).
杨丽,2013.山东省小麦玉米干早指数保险研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学. Yang L,2013. Design of wheat and corn drought index insurance in Shandong Province[D]. Nanjing:Nanjing Uni-versity of Information Science and Technology(in Chinese).
杨太明,刘布春,孙喜波,等,2013.安徽省冬小麦种植保险天气指数设计与应用[J].中国农业气象,34(2):229-235. Yang T M,Liu B C,Sun X B,et al,2013. Design and application of the weather indices of winter wheat planting insurance in Anhui Province[J]. Chinese J Agrometeor,34(2):229-235(in Chinese).
杨太明,孙喜波,刘布春,等,2015.安徽省水稻高温热害保险天气指数模型设计[J].中国农业气象,36(2):220-226. Yang T M,Sun X B,Liu B C,et al,2015. Design on weather indices model for insurance of rice heat damage in Anhui Province[J]. Chinese J Agrometeor,36(2):220-226(in Chinese).
杨太明,许莹,孙喜波,等,2016.安徽省夏玉米干旱天气指数保险产品设计及应用[J].气象,42(4):450-455. Yang T M,Xu Y,Sun X B,et al,2016. Design and application of the drought weather index insurance of summer corn in Anhui Province[J]. Meteor Mon,42(4):450-455(in Chinese).
张爱民,马晓群,杨太明,等,2007.安徽省旱涝灾害及其对农作物产量影响[J].应用气象学报,18(5):619-626.Zhang A M,Ma X Q,Yang T M,et al,2007. The influence of drought and waterlogging disasters on crop yields in Anhui Province[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,18(5):619-626(in Chinese).
张星,张春桂,吴菊薪,等,2009.福建农业气象灾害的产量灾损风险评估[J].自然灾害学报,18(1):90-94. Zhang X,Zhang C G,Wu J X,et al,2009. Risk assessment of yield losses from agrometeorological disasters in Fujian Province[J]. J Natural Disaster, 18(1):90-94(in Chinese).
朱琳,叶殿秀,陈建文,等,2002.陕西省冬小麦干旱风险分析及区划[J].应用气象学报,13(2):201-206. Zhu L,Ye D X,Chen J W,et al,2002. The drought risk assessment and division of winter wheat in Shaanxi Province[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci, 13(2):201-206(in Chinese).
Barnett B J,Mahul O,2007. Weather index insurance for agriculture and rural areas in lower-income countries[J]. Amer J Agric Econ,89(5):1241-1247.
Hess U,Syroka J,2005. Weather-based insurance in Southern Africa:The case of Malawi[M]//Agriculture and Rural Development Discussion. Washington,D C:The World Bank.
Karuaihe R N,Wang H H,Young D L,2006. Weather-based crop insurance contracts for African countries[C]//International Association of Agricultural Economists Conference. Gold Coast:International Association of Agricultural Economics.
Paulson N D, Hart C E, 2006. A spatial approach to addressing weather derivative basis risk:a drought insurance example[C]//2006 Annual Meeting of American Agricultural Economics Association. Long Beach:Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
Varangis P,Skees J, Barnett B,2005. Weather indexes for developing countries[M]//Dischel R S. Climate Risk and the Weather Market. London:World Bank,University of Kentucky and University of Georgia.