沟床起动型泥石流的10min降雨预报模型
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摘要
针对沟床起动型泥石流的诱发因素为高强度短历时的降雨,提出10 min降雨强度是这类泥石流暴发的关键。在1 h预报模型的基础上,基于云南蒋家沟的多年泥石流观测资料,修正了1 h预报模型的降雨参数,并得到了10 min降雨预报模型。10 min降雨预报模型在中国西部的其他流域,如云南浑水沟、贵州望谟县打易区域泥石流沟、四川三滩沟、四川雅安陆王沟和干溪沟、甘肃柳湾沟、甘肃马槽沟等流域的验证中,取得了较好的结果。10min降雨预报模型是部分建立在泥石流的形成机理上的模型,并不是完全的统计模型,因此该模型也可以用于其他地区的沟床起动类型泥石流预报。
High-intensity short duration rainfall was the main triggering factor for the gully type debris flows which are triggered by a runoff induced mechanism. The 10-minute rainfall intensity is considered as the trigger. A revised prediction model with factors related to rainfall is introduced for this kind of gully type debris flows and applied to the Jiangjia gully. A 10-minute rainfall coefficient intensity is proposed based on the 1-hour prediction model,and the observational data of Jiangjia gully is presented. The model was successfully validated in debris flow gullies with the same initiation mechanism in other areas of west China. The generic character of the model is explained by the fact that its factors are partly based on the initiation mechanisms and not only on the statistical analyses of an unique variety of local factors. The research provides a new way to predict the occurrence of debris flows initiated by a runoff induced mechanism.
High-intensity short duration rainfall was the main triggering factor for the gully type debris flows which are triggered by a runoff induced mechanism. The 10-minute rainfall intensity is considered as the trigger. A revised prediction model with factors related to rainfall is introduced for this kind of gully type debris flows and applied to the Jiangjia gully. A 10-minute rainfall coefficient intensity is proposed based on the 1-hour prediction model,and the observational data of Jiangjia gully is presented. The model was successfully validated in debris flow gullies with the same initiation mechanism in other areas of west China. The generic character of the model is explained by the fact that its factors are partly based on the initiation mechanisms and not only on the statistical analyses of an unique variety of local factors. The research provides a new way to predict the occurrence of debris flows initiated by a runoff induced mechanism.
引文
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[18]周伟,唐川.汶川震区暴雨泥石流发生的降雨阈值[J].水科学进展,2013,24(6):786-793.(ZHOU Wei,TANG Chuan.Rainfall thresholds for debris flows occurrence in the Wenchuan earthquake area[J].Advances in Water Science,2013,24(6):786-793.(in Chinese))
[19]周伟,唐川,周春花.汶川震区暴雨泥石流激发雨量特征[J].水科学进展,2012,23(5):650-655.(ZHOU Wei,TANG Chuan,ZHOU Chunhua.Critical rainfall characteristics for rainfall-induced debris flows in Wenchuan earthquake affected areas[J].Advances in Water Science,2012,23(5):650-655.(in Chinese))
[20]殷水清,王杨,谢云,等.中国降雨过程时程分型特征[J].水科学进展,2014,25(5):617-624.(YIN Shuiqing,WANG Yang,XIE Yun,et al.Characteristics of intra-storm temporal pattern over China[J].Advances in Water Science,2014,25(5):617-624.(in Chinese))
[21]程卫帅.山洪灾害临界雨量研究综述[J].水科学进展,2013,24(6):901-908.(CHENG Weishuai.A review of rainfall thresholds for triggering flash floods[J].Advances in Water Science,2013,24(6):901-908.(in Chinese))
[22]杜榕桓,康志成,陈循谦,等.云南小江泥石流综合考察与防治研究[M].重庆:科学技术文献出版社重庆分社,1987:53-65.(DU Ronghuan,KANG Zhicheng,CHEN Xunqian,et al.A comprehensive investigation and control planning for debris flow in the Xiaojiang River basin of Yunnan province[M].Chongqing:Chongqing Division of Reference Press of Science&Technology,1987:53-65.(in Chinese))
[23]中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所.泥石流研究与防治[M].成都:四川科学技术出版社,1989:328-331.(Chengdu Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,CAS.Research and prevention of debris flow[M].Chengdu:Sciences and Technology Press of Sichuan,1989:328-338.(in Chinese))
[24]谭万沛,杨忠义.“791102”雅安泥石流及暴雨成因分析[M].重庆:科学出版社重庆分社,1984:9-14.(TAN Wanpei,YANG Zhongyi.“791102”debris flows of Yaan and analysis of torrential rain genesis[M].Chongqing:Chongqin Division of Science and Technique Press,1984:9-14.(in Chinese))
[2]王世金,秦大河,任贾文.冰湖溃决灾害风险研究进展及其展望[J].水科学进展,2012,23(5):735-742.(WANG Shijin,QIN Dahe,REN Jiawen.Progress and prospect in risk assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts[J].Advances in Water Science,2012,23(5):735-742.(in Chinese))
[3]铁永波,唐川.冰湖溃决评价体系研究进展[J].水科学进展,2009,20(3):448-452.(TIE Yongbo,TANG Chuan.Progress in glacier lake outburst assessment system[J].Advances in Water Science,2009,20(3):448-452.(in Chinese))
[4]铁永波,李宗亮.冰川泥石流形成机理研究进展[J].水科学进展,2010,21(6):861-866.(TIE Yongbo,LI Zongliang.Progress in the study of glacial debris flow mechanisms[J].Advances in Water Science,2010,21(6):861-866.(in Chinese))
[5]倪化勇,唐川.中国泥石流起动物理模拟试验研究进展[J].水科学进展,2014,25(4):606-613.(NI Huayong,TANG Chuan.Advances in the physical simulation experiment on debris flow initiation in China[J].Advances in Water Science,2014,25(4):606-613.(in Chinese))
[6]吴积善,康志成,田连权,等.云南蒋家沟泥石流观测研究[M].北京:科学出版社,1990:191-221.(WU Jishan,KANG Zhicheng,TIAN Lianquan,et al.Observation and research on the debris flows in Jiangjia gully,Yunnan province,China[M].Beijing:Science Press,1990:191-221.(in Chinese))
[7]张兴宝,刘江.云南大盈江流域泥石流[M].成都:成都地图出版社,1989:1-64.(ZHANG Xingbao,LIU Jiang.Debris flows in the basin of Dayinjiang,Yunnan,China[M].Chengdu:Map Press of Chengdu,1989:1-64.(in Chinese))
[8]谭万沛,谭炳炎.三滩泥石流发生与降雨的关系[M].成都:铁道部科学研究院西南研究所,1981:1-15.(TAN Wanpei,TAN Bingyan.The occurrence of debris flow in Santan and its relationship with rainfall[M].Chengdu:Southwest Institute of Sciences Institute of Railway Department,1981:1-15.(in Chinese))
[9]中国科学院兰州冰川所,中国甘肃省交通科学研究所.甘肃泥石流[M].北京:人民交通出版社,1982:125-156.(LanzhouInstitute of Glaciology and Cryopedology,Traffic Science Institute of Gansu Province,China.Debris flow in Gansu province[M].Beijing:People's Transportation Press,1982:125-156.(in Chinese))
[10]高守义,祁龙.甘肃省武都县马槽沟泥石流特征[J].山地研究,1997,15(4):300-304.(GAO Shouyi,QI Long.Some features of debris flow in Macaogou gully,Wudu county,Gansu province[J].Mountain Research,1997,15(4):300-304.(in Chinese))
[11]余斌,朱渊,王涛,等.沟床起动型泥石流预报研究[J].工程地质学报,2014,22(3):450-455.(YU Bin,ZHU Yuan,WANG Tao,et al.Research on the prediction model for debris flow triggered in channels[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2014,22(3):450-455.(in Chinese))
[12]YU B,LI L,WU Y,et al.A formation model for debris flows in the Chenyulan River watershed,Taiwan[J].Natural Hazards,2013,68:745-762.
[13]YU B,LI L,MA Y,et al.Research on topographical factors in the formation of gully type debris flows[C]//River,Coastal and Estuarine Morphodynamics.Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2011:1-10.
[14]YU B,CHU S,LU K,et al.A study about the relationship between the frequency of debris flows and lithology[M]//Eberhardt E,Froese C,Turner A K,et al.Landslides and Engineered Slopes:Protecting Society Through Improved Understanding.Netherlands,CRC Press/Balkema,2012:757-761.
[15]余斌,褚胜名,朱渊,等.风化作用在沟谷型泥石流发育环境中的影响研究[J].水土保持通报,2013,33:51-56.(YU Bin,CHU Shengming,ZHU Yuan,et al.Impacts of weathering on formation of gullied debris flow[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2013,33:51-56.(in Chinese))
[16]FOOKES P G,DEARMAN W R,FRANKLIN J A.Some engineering aspects of rock wearthering with field examples from dartmoor and elsewhere[J].The Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology,1971,4(3):161-163.
[17]SHIEH C L,CHEN Y S,TSAI Y J.Variability in rainfall threshold for debris flow after the Chi-Chi earthquake in central Taiwan,China[J].International Journal of Sediment Research,2009,24:177-188.
[18]周伟,唐川.汶川震区暴雨泥石流发生的降雨阈值[J].水科学进展,2013,24(6):786-793.(ZHOU Wei,TANG Chuan.Rainfall thresholds for debris flows occurrence in the Wenchuan earthquake area[J].Advances in Water Science,2013,24(6):786-793.(in Chinese))
[19]周伟,唐川,周春花.汶川震区暴雨泥石流激发雨量特征[J].水科学进展,2012,23(5):650-655.(ZHOU Wei,TANG Chuan,ZHOU Chunhua.Critical rainfall characteristics for rainfall-induced debris flows in Wenchuan earthquake affected areas[J].Advances in Water Science,2012,23(5):650-655.(in Chinese))
[20]殷水清,王杨,谢云,等.中国降雨过程时程分型特征[J].水科学进展,2014,25(5):617-624.(YIN Shuiqing,WANG Yang,XIE Yun,et al.Characteristics of intra-storm temporal pattern over China[J].Advances in Water Science,2014,25(5):617-624.(in Chinese))
[21]程卫帅.山洪灾害临界雨量研究综述[J].水科学进展,2013,24(6):901-908.(CHENG Weishuai.A review of rainfall thresholds for triggering flash floods[J].Advances in Water Science,2013,24(6):901-908.(in Chinese))
[22]杜榕桓,康志成,陈循谦,等.云南小江泥石流综合考察与防治研究[M].重庆:科学技术文献出版社重庆分社,1987:53-65.(DU Ronghuan,KANG Zhicheng,CHEN Xunqian,et al.A comprehensive investigation and control planning for debris flow in the Xiaojiang River basin of Yunnan province[M].Chongqing:Chongqing Division of Reference Press of Science&Technology,1987:53-65.(in Chinese))
[23]中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所.泥石流研究与防治[M].成都:四川科学技术出版社,1989:328-331.(Chengdu Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,CAS.Research and prevention of debris flow[M].Chengdu:Sciences and Technology Press of Sichuan,1989:328-338.(in Chinese))
[24]谭万沛,杨忠义.“791102”雅安泥石流及暴雨成因分析[M].重庆:科学出版社重庆分社,1984:9-14.(TAN Wanpei,YANG Zhongyi.“791102”debris flows of Yaan and analysis of torrential rain genesis[M].Chongqing:Chongqin Division of Science and Technique Press,1984:9-14.(in Chinese))