基于足球联赛竞争算法-投影寻踪-云模型的水资源短缺风险评价
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摘要
为客观衡量水资源短缺风险评价过程中的随机性与模糊性,将正态云模型引入水资源短缺风险评价,建立足球联赛竞争算法-投影寻踪-正态云评价模型,以云南省各州市水资源短缺风险评价为例进行实例研究。从水资源等系统遴选20个指标构建水资源短缺风险评价指标体系和分级标准,采用云模型正向发生器计算水资源短缺风险分级评价指标的隶属度;在分级标准阈值间随机内插样本构造投影寻踪优化目标函数,利用足球联赛竞争算法、粒子群算法、布谷鸟搜索算法和差分进化算法优化投影寻踪目标函数并进行比较,并通过足球联赛竞争算法-投影寻踪法给出各指标权重;根据隶属度矩阵和权重矩阵计算水资源短缺风险评价的分级确定度并进行评价,评价结果与投影寻踪法、模糊综合评价法比较。结果表明:足球联赛竞争算法寻优精度高于粒子群算法等3种算法。昆明市、怒江州和迪庆州水资源风险评价为低风险;玉溪市、保山市、文山州和德宏州评价为较低风险;曲靖市、昭通市、普洱市、临沧市和红河州评价为中等风险;其余州市评价为较高风险,评价结果与投影寻踪法、模糊评价法基本一致。足球联赛竞争算法-投影寻踪-正态云评价模型兼具模糊性和随机性,既能反映水资源短缺风险评价分级的定性概念,又可反映隶属程度的不确定性,具有较好的应用价值。
To objectively measure the randomness and ambiguity in the process of water scarcity risk assessment, the normal cloud model was introduced to the assessment of water scarcity risk, and a competition algorithm for football leagues-projection pursuit-normal cloud evaluation model was established to use for the various cities in Yunnan Province. Water shortage risk assessment was used as an example to study. Twenty indicators were selected from the water resources system to establish the water scarcity risk assessment index system and grading standards, and the cloud generator was used to calculate the degree of membership of the water shortage risk grading evaluation index; the sample structure was randomly interpolated between the grading standard thresholds. Projection pursuit optimizes the objective function, uses the football league competition algorithm, particle swarm algorithm, cuckoo search algorithm and differential evolution algorithm to optimize the projection pursuit objective function and compare them, and gives each index through the soccer league competition algorithm-projection pursuit method.According to the degree of membership matrix and weight matrix to calculate the degree of water shortage risk assessment of the degree of certainty and make evaluation, the results were compared with the projection pursuit method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results show that the accuracy of the soccer league competition algorithm is higher than that of the particle swarm algorithm. Risk assessments for water resources in Kunming, Nujiang, and Diqing indicate a low risk; Yuxi, Baoshan, Wenshan, and Dehong were assessed as lower risk; Qujing,Zhaotong, Puer, Linyi, and Honghe were assessed as moderate risk; the other cities were rated as higher risk, and the evaluation results were basically consistent with the projection pursuit method and fuzzy evaluation method. The football league competition algorithm-projection pursuit-normal cloud assessment model is both fuzzy and random, it can not only reflect the qualitative concept of water shortage risk assessment rating, but also reflect the uncertainty of the degree of membership.
To objectively measure the randomness and ambiguity in the process of water scarcity risk assessment, the normal cloud model was introduced to the assessment of water scarcity risk, and a competition algorithm for football leagues-projection pursuit-normal cloud evaluation model was established to use for the various cities in Yunnan Province. Water shortage risk assessment was used as an example to study. Twenty indicators were selected from the water resources system to establish the water scarcity risk assessment index system and grading standards, and the cloud generator was used to calculate the degree of membership of the water shortage risk grading evaluation index; the sample structure was randomly interpolated between the grading standard thresholds. Projection pursuit optimizes the objective function, uses the football league competition algorithm, particle swarm algorithm, cuckoo search algorithm and differential evolution algorithm to optimize the projection pursuit objective function and compare them, and gives each index through the soccer league competition algorithm-projection pursuit method.According to the degree of membership matrix and weight matrix to calculate the degree of water shortage risk assessment of the degree of certainty and make evaluation, the results were compared with the projection pursuit method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results show that the accuracy of the soccer league competition algorithm is higher than that of the particle swarm algorithm. Risk assessments for water resources in Kunming, Nujiang, and Diqing indicate a low risk; Yuxi, Baoshan, Wenshan, and Dehong were assessed as lower risk; Qujing,Zhaotong, Puer, Linyi, and Honghe were assessed as moderate risk; the other cities were rated as higher risk, and the evaluation results were basically consistent with the projection pursuit method and fuzzy evaluation method. The football league competition algorithm-projection pursuit-normal cloud assessment model is both fuzzy and random, it can not only reflect the qualitative concept of water shortage risk assessment rating, but also reflect the uncertainty of the degree of membership.
引文
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[9]付文艺.基于熵权-正态云模型的地下水水质综合评价[J].人民黄河,2016,38(5):68-71+76.(FU Wenyi.Water quality evaluation based on entropy weightnormal cloud model[J].Yellow River,2016,38(5):68-71+76.(in Chinese))
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[11]曾志雄,田海,黄珏皓.基于云模型的膨胀土胀缩等级分类[J].长江科学院院报,2016,33(2):80-85.(ZENG Zhixiong,TIAN Hai,HUANG Juehao.Classification of swelling-shrinkage grade of expansive soils based on cloud model[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research INSTI,2016,33(2):80-85.(in Chinese))
[12]黄显峰,刘展志,方国华.基于云模型的水利现代化评价方法与应用[J].水利水电科技进展,2017,37(6):54-61.(HUANG Xianfeng,LIU Zhanzhi,FANG Guohua.Evaluation and application of water conservancy modernization index system based on a cloud model[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2017,37(6):54-61.(in Chinese))
[13]乔丹颖,刘凌,闫峰.基于云模型的中运河水安全评价[J].水资源保护,2015,31(2):26-29.(QIAO Danying,LIU Ling,YAN Feng.Assessment on water security of Zhong canal based on cloud model[J].Water Resources Protection,2015,31(2):26-29.(in Chinese))
[14]周云哲,粟晓玲.基于指标规范化的正态云模型的水安全评价[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2017,38(4):18-24,66.(ZHOU Yunzhe,SU Xiaoling.Water security evaluation based on normal cloud model with normalized indexes[J].Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Hydropower(Natural Science),2017,38(4):18-24,66.(in Chinese))
[15]耿芳,董增川,徐伟.基于云模型的黑龙江上中游河流健康评价[J].水资源保护,2016,32(6):131-135.(GENG Fang,DONG Zengchuan,XU Wei.River health assessment of upper and middle reaches of Heilongjiang River based on cloud model[J].Water Resources Protection,2016,32(6):131-135.(in Chinese))
[16]李奎,邢玉玲,谭炳卿,等.基于云模型的黄河流域火电行业用水定额评估[J].人民黄河,2017,39(5):64-68.(LI Kui,XING Yuling,TAN Bingqing,et al.Evaluation of thermal power industry water auota in the Yellow River basin based on cloud model[J].Yellow River,2017,39(5):64-68.(in Chinese))
[17]陈杰,孟锦根.岩爆烈度分级预测的云模型法及其应用[J].人民长江,2016,47(15):82-86.(CHEN Jie,MENG Jingen.Normal cloud model for rockburst intensity forecast and its application[J].Yangtze River,2016,47(15):82-86.(in Chinese))
[18]崔东文.鸡群优化算法投影寻踪洪旱灾害评估模型[J].水利水电科技进展,2016,36(2):16-23.(CUI Dongwen.Projection pursuit model for evaluation of flood and drought disasters based on chicken swarm optimization algorithm[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2016,36(2):16-23.(in Chinese))
[19]崔东文,郭荣.SSO-PP模型在水源地安全保障达标评价中的应用[J].水利经济,2015,33(5):8-13.(CUI Dongwen,GUO Rong.Application of SSO-PP model in security standard evaluation of water sources[J].Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2015,33(5):8-13.(in Chinese))
[20]崔东文,金波.基于新型蝙蝠算法-投影寻踪模型的文山州水量分配方法[J].水利水电科技进展,2017,37(2):55-62.(CUI Dongwen,JIN Bo.A water allocation method based on novel bat algorithmprojection pursuit model and its application in Wenshan autonomous prefecture[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2017,37(2):55-62.(in Chinese))
[21]崔东文.蛾群算法与投影寻踪耦合模型在区域水资源脆弱性评价中的应用[J].三峡大学学报(自然科学版),2017,39(4):10-18.(CUIDongwen.Application of moth swarm algorithm and projection pursuit coupling model to regional water resources vulnerability sssessment[J].Journal of China Three Gorges University(Natural Science),2017,39(4):10-18.(in Chinese))
[22]崔东文,郭荣.基于混沌闪电搜索算法-最大熵投影寻踪模型的区域水安全评价[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2017,38(3):17-26.(CUI Dongwen,GUO Rong.Assessment on regional water safety using the model of chaos lightning search algorithm optimized by maximum entropy projection pursuit[J].Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Hydropower(Natural Science),2017,38(3):17-26.(in Chinese))
[23]N.Moosavian,B.K.Roodsari.Soccer league competition algorithm:a new method for solving systems of nonlinear equations[J].International Journal of Intelligence Science,2014,(4):7-16.
[24]N.Moosavian,B.K.Roodsari.Soccer league competition algorithm:a novel meta-heuristic algorithm for optimal design of water distribution networks[J].Swarm Evol.Comput.,2014,(17):14-24.
[25]崔东文,金波.足球联赛竞争算法-投影寻踪模型在区域水资源承载力评价中的应用[J].三峡大学学报(自然科学版),2018,40(1):7-13.(CUI Dongwen,JIN Bo.Evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity based on SLC-PP model[J].Journal of China Three Gorges University(Natural Science),2018,40(1):7-13.(in Chinese))
[26]崔东文.文山州近10年水资源利用效率评价SLC-PP模型及应用[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2017,45(2):129-136.(CUIDongweng.SLC-PP model and its application to evaluation of water use efficiency in Wenshan prefecture in last ten years[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2017,45(2):129-136.(in Chinese))
[2]秦晋,刘树峰.吉林省水资源短缺风险等级评价及预测[J].人民长江,2016,47(21):39-43.(QIN Jin,LIU Shufeng.Evaluation and prediction of risk level of water resources shortage of Jinlin province[J].Yangtze River,2016,47(21):39-43.(in Chinese))
[3]杜向润,冯民权,张建龙.基于改进信息扩散理论的水资源短缺风险评价研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2014,32(6):188-194.(DUXiangrun,FENG Minquan,ZHANG Jianlong.Evaluation research of water resources shortage risk based on improved information diffusion theory[J].Agriculture Research in the ARID Areas,2014,32(6):188-194.(in Chinese))
[4]张中旺,周萍.基于主成分分析的襄阳市水资源短缺风险评价[J]中国农学通报,2016,32(2):92-98.(ZHANG Zhongwang,ZHOUPing.Assessment of water shortage risk in Xiangyang city based on principal component analysis[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2016,32(2):92-98.(in Chinese))
[5]陈大春.基于模糊集对法的乌鲁木齐市水资源短缺风险评价[J]水电能源科学,2013,31(12):25-28.(CHEN Dachun.Risk evaluation of water resources shortage in Urumqi based on SPAVFS[J].Hydroelectric Energy Science,2013,31(12):25-28.(in Chinese))
[6]张中旺,常国瑞.中线调水后汉江生态经济带水资源短缺风险评价[J]人民长江,2016,47(6):16-21.(ZHANG Zhongwang,CHANGGuorui.Risk assessment of water resource shortage in Hanjiang River ecological economic zone after implementing middle route project of south to north water diversion[J].Yangtze River,2016,47(6):16-21.(in Chinese))
[7]万昔超,殷伟量,孙鹏,等.基于云模型的暴雨洪涝灾害风险分区评价[J].自然灾害学报,2017,26(4):77-83.(WAN Xichao,YINWeiliang,SUN Peng,et al.Risk division assessment of rainstormflood disasters based on cloud model[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2017,(4):77-83.(in Chinese))
[8]石晓静,查小春,刘嘉慧,等.基于云模型的汉江上游安康市洪水灾害风险评价[J].水利水电科技进展,2017,37(3):29-34.(SHIXiaojing,CHA Xiaochun,LIU Jiahui,et al.Cloud model-based risk assessment of flood disasters in Ankang city on upper reaches of Hanjiang River[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2017,37(3):29-34.(in Chinese))
[9]付文艺.基于熵权-正态云模型的地下水水质综合评价[J].人民黄河,2016,38(5):68-71+76.(FU Wenyi.Water quality evaluation based on entropy weightnormal cloud model[J].Yellow River,2016,38(5):68-71+76.(in Chinese))
[10]任飞鹏,侯炳江,佘学成.正态云模型在地下水水质综合评价中的应用[J].人民长江,2016,47(21):15-20.(REN Feipeng,HOU Bingjaing,SHE Xuecheng.Application of normal cloud model in groundwater quality evaluation[J].Yangtze River,2016,47(21):15-20.(in Chinese))
[11]曾志雄,田海,黄珏皓.基于云模型的膨胀土胀缩等级分类[J].长江科学院院报,2016,33(2):80-85.(ZENG Zhixiong,TIAN Hai,HUANG Juehao.Classification of swelling-shrinkage grade of expansive soils based on cloud model[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research INSTI,2016,33(2):80-85.(in Chinese))
[12]黄显峰,刘展志,方国华.基于云模型的水利现代化评价方法与应用[J].水利水电科技进展,2017,37(6):54-61.(HUANG Xianfeng,LIU Zhanzhi,FANG Guohua.Evaluation and application of water conservancy modernization index system based on a cloud model[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2017,37(6):54-61.(in Chinese))
[13]乔丹颖,刘凌,闫峰.基于云模型的中运河水安全评价[J].水资源保护,2015,31(2):26-29.(QIAO Danying,LIU Ling,YAN Feng.Assessment on water security of Zhong canal based on cloud model[J].Water Resources Protection,2015,31(2):26-29.(in Chinese))
[14]周云哲,粟晓玲.基于指标规范化的正态云模型的水安全评价[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2017,38(4):18-24,66.(ZHOU Yunzhe,SU Xiaoling.Water security evaluation based on normal cloud model with normalized indexes[J].Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Hydropower(Natural Science),2017,38(4):18-24,66.(in Chinese))
[15]耿芳,董增川,徐伟.基于云模型的黑龙江上中游河流健康评价[J].水资源保护,2016,32(6):131-135.(GENG Fang,DONG Zengchuan,XU Wei.River health assessment of upper and middle reaches of Heilongjiang River based on cloud model[J].Water Resources Protection,2016,32(6):131-135.(in Chinese))
[16]李奎,邢玉玲,谭炳卿,等.基于云模型的黄河流域火电行业用水定额评估[J].人民黄河,2017,39(5):64-68.(LI Kui,XING Yuling,TAN Bingqing,et al.Evaluation of thermal power industry water auota in the Yellow River basin based on cloud model[J].Yellow River,2017,39(5):64-68.(in Chinese))
[17]陈杰,孟锦根.岩爆烈度分级预测的云模型法及其应用[J].人民长江,2016,47(15):82-86.(CHEN Jie,MENG Jingen.Normal cloud model for rockburst intensity forecast and its application[J].Yangtze River,2016,47(15):82-86.(in Chinese))
[18]崔东文.鸡群优化算法投影寻踪洪旱灾害评估模型[J].水利水电科技进展,2016,36(2):16-23.(CUI Dongwen.Projection pursuit model for evaluation of flood and drought disasters based on chicken swarm optimization algorithm[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2016,36(2):16-23.(in Chinese))
[19]崔东文,郭荣.SSO-PP模型在水源地安全保障达标评价中的应用[J].水利经济,2015,33(5):8-13.(CUI Dongwen,GUO Rong.Application of SSO-PP model in security standard evaluation of water sources[J].Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2015,33(5):8-13.(in Chinese))
[20]崔东文,金波.基于新型蝙蝠算法-投影寻踪模型的文山州水量分配方法[J].水利水电科技进展,2017,37(2):55-62.(CUI Dongwen,JIN Bo.A water allocation method based on novel bat algorithmprojection pursuit model and its application in Wenshan autonomous prefecture[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2017,37(2):55-62.(in Chinese))
[21]崔东文.蛾群算法与投影寻踪耦合模型在区域水资源脆弱性评价中的应用[J].三峡大学学报(自然科学版),2017,39(4):10-18.(CUIDongwen.Application of moth swarm algorithm and projection pursuit coupling model to regional water resources vulnerability sssessment[J].Journal of China Three Gorges University(Natural Science),2017,39(4):10-18.(in Chinese))
[22]崔东文,郭荣.基于混沌闪电搜索算法-最大熵投影寻踪模型的区域水安全评价[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2017,38(3):17-26.(CUI Dongwen,GUO Rong.Assessment on regional water safety using the model of chaos lightning search algorithm optimized by maximum entropy projection pursuit[J].Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Hydropower(Natural Science),2017,38(3):17-26.(in Chinese))
[23]N.Moosavian,B.K.Roodsari.Soccer league competition algorithm:a new method for solving systems of nonlinear equations[J].International Journal of Intelligence Science,2014,(4):7-16.
[24]N.Moosavian,B.K.Roodsari.Soccer league competition algorithm:a novel meta-heuristic algorithm for optimal design of water distribution networks[J].Swarm Evol.Comput.,2014,(17):14-24.
[25]崔东文,金波.足球联赛竞争算法-投影寻踪模型在区域水资源承载力评价中的应用[J].三峡大学学报(自然科学版),2018,40(1):7-13.(CUI Dongwen,JIN Bo.Evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity based on SLC-PP model[J].Journal of China Three Gorges University(Natural Science),2018,40(1):7-13.(in Chinese))
[26]崔东文.文山州近10年水资源利用效率评价SLC-PP模型及应用[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2017,45(2):129-136.(CUIDongweng.SLC-PP model and its application to evaluation of water use efficiency in Wenshan prefecture in last ten years[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2017,45(2):129-136.(in Chinese))