中国西南部区域雨季极端降水指数时空变化特征
|
摘要
基于1971-2013年中国西南部区域7省市477个气象站点的逐日降水观测资料,选取11个极端降水指数,运用线性倾向法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法和滑动t检验法分析了西南部地区雨季极端降水指数的时空分布及变化特征,并探究极端降水指数多年平均以及变化趋势与海拔高度的关系。结果表明:(1)近43a来,西南部地区雨季PRCPTOT、CWD、R1mm、R10mm以及SDII分别以12.6mm·10a~(-1)、0.23d·10a~(-1)、1.57d·10a~(-1)、0.49d·10a~(-1)和0.31mm·d-1·10a~(-1)的速率下降(P<0.05),CDD上升速率为0.37d·10a~(-1)(P<0.05),而Rx1day、Rx5day、R95、R99以及R20mm的变化不显著。(2)雨季CDD、R1mm、Rx1day的突变集中发生在20世纪80年代,而PRCPTOT、R10mm、Rx5day和SDII的突变主要发生在2003年前后;PRCPTOT、CDD、R1mm、R10mm、Rx1day和SDII在突变年份以前表现出一定的稳定性,而在突变年份以后则会发生显著的上升或下降趋势。(3)从变化趋势空间分布的角度看并非所有地区均表现出干旱化趋势,云南、贵州及广西三省交界处雨季干旱化程度较严重,广西东南部地区雨季发生暴雨洪涝灾害的风险较大,而横断山脉地区雨季更加湿润。(4)从贡献率变化的角度,西南部地区雨季降水占比的变化趋势具有很强的区域特征,四川北部和西藏地区雨季指数对全年贡献率逐年下降,而广西东南部地区雨季指数对全年贡献率逐渐上升。(5)综合11个指数与海拔高度的关系来看,一方面,西南高海拔地区R1mm较高,降水以中小雨为主,并且PRCPTOT、R1mm、R10mm以及R20mm的多年平均值均表现出不同程度的上升趋势。因此,43a来西南高海拔地区变得更加湿润。另一方面,低海拔地区R1mm较低,而R95、R99、Rx1day、Rx5day以及SDII均较高,并且在低海拔地区CWD和CDD均呈现上升趋势,因此,雨季低海拔地区面临洪涝及干旱的风险相对较大。
Based on the daily precipitation data of 477 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2013 in southwestern China, the spatial distribution and variation features of 11 extreme precipitation indices were analyzed by using the linear regression, Mann-Kendall test and moving t test. Besides, the relationship among the multi-year average of extreme precipitation indices,variation trend and altitude were also discussed. The results were as follows:(1) in the past 43 years, the decline rates of PRCPTOT, CWD, R1 mm, R10 mm and SDII in the rainy season of southwest China were 12.6 mm·10 y~(-1), 0.23 d·10 y~(-1), 1.57 d·10 y~(-1), 0.49 d·10 y~(-1) and 0.31 mm·d-1·10 y~(-1)(P<0.05) respectively, the growth rate of CDD is 0.37 d·10 y~(-1)(P<0.05), while the changes in Rx1 day, Rx5 day, R95, R99, and R20 mm were not significant.(2) The mutations of CDD, R1 mm, and Rx1 day in the rainy season occurred in the 1980 s intensively, while the mutations of PRCPTOT, R10 mm, Rx5 day, and SDII occurred mainly around 2003. RCPTOT, CDD, R1 mm, R10 mm, Rx1 day, and SDII showed certain stability before mutation year and a significant increase or decrease trend after mutation year.(3) From the perspective of spatial distribution, not all regions showed the tendency of drought. The extent of drought in rainy season at the junction of Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi provinces was more serious, the risk of heavy rain and flood disaster in the rainy season in southeastern Guangxi was greater, while rainy season in the Hengduan Mountains was more humid.(4) In terms of the contribution rate, variation trend of precipitation proportion in rainy season in southwestern had a strong regional characteristic: the contribution rate of rainy season indices for the whole year in northern Sichuan and Tibet had declined year by year, while in southeastern Guangxi it had gradually increased.(5) Judging from the relationship between the 11 indices and altitude, in high altitude regions of southwestern, the R1 mm value was higher and the precipitation was mainly moderate and light rain. Besides, the multi-year average values of PRCPTOT, R1 mm, R10 mm and R20 mm showed different degrees of upward trend. Therefore, the climate had become more humid in the past 43 years. On the other hand, in low altitude regions, R1 mm was lower, while R95, R99, Rx1 day, Rx5 day, and SDII were higher and CWD, CDD showed an upward trend. Therefore, the risk of flooding and drought in the low altitude regions during the rainy season was relatively larger.
Based on the daily precipitation data of 477 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2013 in southwestern China, the spatial distribution and variation features of 11 extreme precipitation indices were analyzed by using the linear regression, Mann-Kendall test and moving t test. Besides, the relationship among the multi-year average of extreme precipitation indices,variation trend and altitude were also discussed. The results were as follows:(1) in the past 43 years, the decline rates of PRCPTOT, CWD, R1 mm, R10 mm and SDII in the rainy season of southwest China were 12.6 mm·10 y~(-1), 0.23 d·10 y~(-1), 1.57 d·10 y~(-1), 0.49 d·10 y~(-1) and 0.31 mm·d-1·10 y~(-1)(P<0.05) respectively, the growth rate of CDD is 0.37 d·10 y~(-1)(P<0.05), while the changes in Rx1 day, Rx5 day, R95, R99, and R20 mm were not significant.(2) The mutations of CDD, R1 mm, and Rx1 day in the rainy season occurred in the 1980 s intensively, while the mutations of PRCPTOT, R10 mm, Rx5 day, and SDII occurred mainly around 2003. RCPTOT, CDD, R1 mm, R10 mm, Rx1 day, and SDII showed certain stability before mutation year and a significant increase or decrease trend after mutation year.(3) From the perspective of spatial distribution, not all regions showed the tendency of drought. The extent of drought in rainy season at the junction of Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi provinces was more serious, the risk of heavy rain and flood disaster in the rainy season in southeastern Guangxi was greater, while rainy season in the Hengduan Mountains was more humid.(4) In terms of the contribution rate, variation trend of precipitation proportion in rainy season in southwestern had a strong regional characteristic: the contribution rate of rainy season indices for the whole year in northern Sichuan and Tibet had declined year by year, while in southeastern Guangxi it had gradually increased.(5) Judging from the relationship between the 11 indices and altitude, in high altitude regions of southwestern, the R1 mm value was higher and the precipitation was mainly moderate and light rain. Besides, the multi-year average values of PRCPTOT, R1 mm, R10 mm and R20 mm showed different degrees of upward trend. Therefore, the climate had become more humid in the past 43 years. On the other hand, in low altitude regions, R1 mm was lower, while R95, R99, Rx1 day, Rx5 day, and SDII were higher and CWD, CDD showed an upward trend. Therefore, the risk of flooding and drought in the low altitude regions during the rainy season was relatively larger.
引文
[1]Collins M,Knutti R,Arblaster J et al.Climate change2013:the physical science basis[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University press,2013:136-137.
[2]Solomon S.Climate change 2007:the physical science basis contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007:114-167.
[3]胡宜昌,董文杰,何勇.21世纪初极端天气气候事件研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2007,22(10):1066-1075.Hu Y C,Dong W J,He Y.Research on extreme weather events in the early 21st century[J].Advances in Earth Science,2007,22(10):1066-1075.(in Chinese)
[4]张存杰,黄大鹏,刘昌义,等.IPCC第五次评估报告气候变化对人类福祉影响的新认知[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(4):246-250.Zhang C J,Huang D P,Liu C Y,et al.IPCC AR5 updated understanding of climate change impacts on human wellbeings[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2014,10(4):246-250.(in Chinese)
[5]Alexander L V,Zhang X,Peterson T C,et al.Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2012,111(D5):1042-1063.
[6]Zolina O,Simmer C,Belyaev K,et al.Changes in the duration of European wet and dry spells during the last 60 years[J].Journal of Climate,2013,26(6):2022-2047.
[7]Griffiths M L,Bradley R S.Variations of twentieth-century temperature and precipitation extreme indicators in the northeast United States[J].Journal of Climate,2007,20(20):5401-5417.
[8]武文博,游庆龙,王岱.基于均一化降水资料的中国极端降水特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(6):1015-1026.Wu W B,You Q L,Wang D,et al.Characteristics of extreme precipitation in China based on homogenized precipitation data[J]Journal of Natural Resources,2016,31(6):1015-1026.(in Chinese)
[9]陈静,刘洪滨,王艳君,等.华北平原干旱事件特征及农业用地暴露度演变分析[J].中国农业气象,2016,37(5):587-599.Chen J,Liu H B,Wang Y J,et al.Variation of drought characteristics and its agricultural exposure in North China Plain[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2016,37(5):587-599.(in Chinese)
[10]曹祥会,龙怀玉,张继宗等.河北省主要极端气候指数的时空变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(3):245-253.Cao X H,Long H Y,Zhang J Z,et al.Temporal and spatial variation analysis of the main extreme climate index in Hebei province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2015,36(3):245-253.(in Chinese)
[11]任正果,张明军,王圣杰,等.1961-2011年中国南方地区极端降水事件变化[J].地理学报,2014,69(5):640-649.Ren Z G,Zhang M J,Wang S J,et al.Changes in daily extreme precipitation events in South China from 1961 to2011[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2014,69(5):640-649.(in Chinese)
[12]刘勤,严昌荣,张燕卿,等.近50年黄河流域气温和降水量变化特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(4):475-480.Liu Q,Yan C R,Zhang Y Q,et al.Variation of precipitation and temperature in Yellow River basin during the last 50years[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2012,33(4):475-480.(in Chinese)
[13]Kiktev D,Sexton D M H,Alexander L,et al.Comparison of modeled and observed trends in indices of daily climate extremes[J].J Climate,2003,16(22):3560-3570.
[14]Frich P,Alexander L V,Della-marta P,et al.Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century[J].Climate Res,2002,19(3):193-212.
[15]贾孜拉·拜山,李维京,孙丞虎,等.1961-2014年我国西南地区干湿季变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(2):103-116.Jiazila B S,Li W J,Sun C H,et al.Characteristics of wet and dry seasons in southwest China during 1961-2014[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2017,13(2):103-116.(in Chinese)
[16]孙清元,郑万模,倪化勇.我国西南地区山地灾害灾情年际综合评估[J].沉积与特提斯地质,2007,27(3):105-107.Sun Q Y,Zheng W M,Ni H Y.Annual assessment of the geological hazards in the mountain areas in SWChina[J].Sedimentary Geology and Tethyan Geology,2007,27(3):105-107.(in Chinese)
[17]张武龙,张井勇,范广洲.我国西南地区干湿季降水主模态分析[J].大气科学,2014,38(3):590-602.Zhang W L,Zhang J Y,Fan G Z.Dominant modes of dry-and wet-season precipitation in southwestern China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,38(3):590-602.(in Chinese)
[18]苏秀程,王磊,李奇临,等.近50a中国西南地区地表干湿状况研究[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(1):104-116.Su X C,Wang L,Li Q L,et al.Study of surface dry and wet conditions in southwest China in recent 50 years[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2014,29(1):104-116.(in Chinese)
[19]白慧,高辉.索马里越赤道气流对西南雨季开始早晚的影响[J].大气科学,2017,41(4):702-712.Bai H,Gao H.Influences of the Somalia cross-equatorial flow on the beginning date of rainy season in southwest China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2017,41(4):702-712.(in Chinese)
[20]Wang B,Liu J,Hyung J K,et al.Recent change of the global monsoon precipitation(1979-2008)[J].Climate Dynamics,2012,39(5):1123-1135.
[21]袁文德,郑江坤,董奎.1962-2012年西南地区极端降水事件的时空变化特征[J].资源科学,2014,36(4):766-772.Yuan W D,Zheng J K,Dong K.Spatial and temporal variation in extreme precipitation events in southwestern China during 1962-2012[J].Resources Science,2014,36(4):766-772.(in Chinese)
[22]黎琮炜,覃卫坚,高安宁.1961-2013年广西洪涝灾害时空分布特征及成因[J].气象研究与应用,2015,36(1):81-84.Li Z W,Qin W J,Gao A N.Analysis on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of flood disasters during1961-2013 and its causes in Guangxi[J].Journal Of Meteorological Research And Application,2015,36(1):81-84.(in Chinese)
[23]黄荣辉,刘永,王林,等.2009年秋至2010年春我国西南地区严重干旱的成因分析[J].大气科学,2012,36(3):43-47.Huang R H,Liu Y,Wang L,et al.Analyses of causes of severe drought occurring in southwest China from the fall of 2009to the spring of 2010[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2012,36(3):43-47.(in Chinese)
[24]董谢琼,段旭.西南地区降水量的气候特征及变化趋势[J].气象科学,1998,18(3):240-246.Dong X Q,Duan X.Climatic characteristics and variation tendency of precipitation in the southwest region of China[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,1998,18(3):240-246.(in Chinese)
[25]罗玉,范广周,周定文,等.西南地区极端降水变化趋势[J].气象科学,2015,35(5):581-586.Luo Y,Fan G Z,Zhou D W,et al.Extreme precipitation trend of southwest China in recent 41 years[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2015,35(5):581-586.(in Chinese)
[26]Liu L,Xu Z X.Regionalization of precipitation and the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme precipitation in southwestern China[J].Natural Hazards,2016,80(2):195-1211.
[27]Liu M X,Xu X L,Alexander Y S,et al.Is southwestern China experiencing more frequent precipitation extremes[J].Environmental Research Letters,2014,9(6):1-14.
[28]Li Z X,He Y Q,Wilfred H T,et al.Altitude dependency of trends of daily climate extremes in southwestern China during 1961-2008[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2012,22(3):416-430.
[29]Li Z X,He Y Q,Wang P Y,et al.Changes of daily climate extremes in southwestern China during 1961-2008[J].Global and Planetary Change,2012,80(81):255-272.
[30]杨金虎,张强,王劲松,等.近60年来西南地区旱涝变化及极端和持续性特征认识[J].地理科学,2015,35(10):1333-1340.Yang J H,Zhang Q,Wang J S,et al.Extreme and persistent feature of drought and flood of southwest China in past 60years[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(10):1333-1340.(in Chinese)
[31]尹晗,李耀辉.我国西南干旱研究最新进展综述[J].干旱气象,2013,31(1):182-193.Yin H,Li Y H.Summary of advance on drought study in southwest China[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology,2013,31(1):182-193.(in Chinese)
[32]Yang P,Xiao Z N,Yang J,et al.Characteristics of clustering extreme drought events in China during 1961-2010[J].Acta Meteorological Sinica,2013,27(2):186-198.
[33]IPCC.Climate change 2013:the physical science basis[M].Cambridge,UK and New York,USA:Cambridge University Press,2013:1535-1539.
[34]利容千,王建波.植物逆境细胞及生理学[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2002:53-70.Li R Q,Wang J B.Plant stress physiology[M].Wuhan:Wu Han University Press,2002:53-70.(in Chinese)
[35]祝稳.西北干旱区植被覆盖动态及其对极端气温和降水过程的响应[D].兰州:西北师范大学,2015:38-39Zhu W.Spatial-temporal dynamics of vegetation coverage and its response to extreme temperature and precipitation processes over the arid region of northwest China[D].Lanzhou:Northwest Normal University,2015:38-39.(in Chinese)
[36]陈晓晨,徐影,姚遥.不同升温阈值下中国地区极端气候事件变化预估[J].大气科学,2015,39(6):1123-1135.Chen X C,Xu Y,Yao Y.Changes in climate extremes over China in a 2℃,3℃,and 4℃warmer world[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2015,39(6):1123-1135.(in Chinese)
[37]晏红明,李清泉,孙丞虎,等.中国西南区域雨季开始和结束日期划分标准的研究[J].大气科学,2013,37(5):1111-1128.Yan H M,Li Q Q,Sun C H,et al.Criterion for determining the onset and end of the rainy season in southwest China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2013,37(5):1111-1128.(in Chinese)
[38]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第二版)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:63-65.Wei F Y.Modern climate statistics diagnosis and prediction technology[M].Beijing:China Meteorology Press,2007:63-65.(in Chinese)
[39]李国栋,田海峰,彭剑峰,等.基于小波和M-K方法的商丘气温时间序列分析[J].气象与环境学报,2013,29(3):78-84.Li G D,Tian H F,Peng J F,et al.Time series of air temperature based on methods of a wavelet analysis and a Mann-Kendall test in Shangqiu[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2013,29(3):78-84.(in Chinese)
[2]Solomon S.Climate change 2007:the physical science basis contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007:114-167.
[3]胡宜昌,董文杰,何勇.21世纪初极端天气气候事件研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2007,22(10):1066-1075.Hu Y C,Dong W J,He Y.Research on extreme weather events in the early 21st century[J].Advances in Earth Science,2007,22(10):1066-1075.(in Chinese)
[4]张存杰,黄大鹏,刘昌义,等.IPCC第五次评估报告气候变化对人类福祉影响的新认知[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(4):246-250.Zhang C J,Huang D P,Liu C Y,et al.IPCC AR5 updated understanding of climate change impacts on human wellbeings[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2014,10(4):246-250.(in Chinese)
[5]Alexander L V,Zhang X,Peterson T C,et al.Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2012,111(D5):1042-1063.
[6]Zolina O,Simmer C,Belyaev K,et al.Changes in the duration of European wet and dry spells during the last 60 years[J].Journal of Climate,2013,26(6):2022-2047.
[7]Griffiths M L,Bradley R S.Variations of twentieth-century temperature and precipitation extreme indicators in the northeast United States[J].Journal of Climate,2007,20(20):5401-5417.
[8]武文博,游庆龙,王岱.基于均一化降水资料的中国极端降水特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(6):1015-1026.Wu W B,You Q L,Wang D,et al.Characteristics of extreme precipitation in China based on homogenized precipitation data[J]Journal of Natural Resources,2016,31(6):1015-1026.(in Chinese)
[9]陈静,刘洪滨,王艳君,等.华北平原干旱事件特征及农业用地暴露度演变分析[J].中国农业气象,2016,37(5):587-599.Chen J,Liu H B,Wang Y J,et al.Variation of drought characteristics and its agricultural exposure in North China Plain[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2016,37(5):587-599.(in Chinese)
[10]曹祥会,龙怀玉,张继宗等.河北省主要极端气候指数的时空变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(3):245-253.Cao X H,Long H Y,Zhang J Z,et al.Temporal and spatial variation analysis of the main extreme climate index in Hebei province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2015,36(3):245-253.(in Chinese)
[11]任正果,张明军,王圣杰,等.1961-2011年中国南方地区极端降水事件变化[J].地理学报,2014,69(5):640-649.Ren Z G,Zhang M J,Wang S J,et al.Changes in daily extreme precipitation events in South China from 1961 to2011[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2014,69(5):640-649.(in Chinese)
[12]刘勤,严昌荣,张燕卿,等.近50年黄河流域气温和降水量变化特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(4):475-480.Liu Q,Yan C R,Zhang Y Q,et al.Variation of precipitation and temperature in Yellow River basin during the last 50years[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2012,33(4):475-480.(in Chinese)
[13]Kiktev D,Sexton D M H,Alexander L,et al.Comparison of modeled and observed trends in indices of daily climate extremes[J].J Climate,2003,16(22):3560-3570.
[14]Frich P,Alexander L V,Della-marta P,et al.Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century[J].Climate Res,2002,19(3):193-212.
[15]贾孜拉·拜山,李维京,孙丞虎,等.1961-2014年我国西南地区干湿季变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(2):103-116.Jiazila B S,Li W J,Sun C H,et al.Characteristics of wet and dry seasons in southwest China during 1961-2014[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2017,13(2):103-116.(in Chinese)
[16]孙清元,郑万模,倪化勇.我国西南地区山地灾害灾情年际综合评估[J].沉积与特提斯地质,2007,27(3):105-107.Sun Q Y,Zheng W M,Ni H Y.Annual assessment of the geological hazards in the mountain areas in SWChina[J].Sedimentary Geology and Tethyan Geology,2007,27(3):105-107.(in Chinese)
[17]张武龙,张井勇,范广洲.我国西南地区干湿季降水主模态分析[J].大气科学,2014,38(3):590-602.Zhang W L,Zhang J Y,Fan G Z.Dominant modes of dry-and wet-season precipitation in southwestern China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,38(3):590-602.(in Chinese)
[18]苏秀程,王磊,李奇临,等.近50a中国西南地区地表干湿状况研究[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(1):104-116.Su X C,Wang L,Li Q L,et al.Study of surface dry and wet conditions in southwest China in recent 50 years[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2014,29(1):104-116.(in Chinese)
[19]白慧,高辉.索马里越赤道气流对西南雨季开始早晚的影响[J].大气科学,2017,41(4):702-712.Bai H,Gao H.Influences of the Somalia cross-equatorial flow on the beginning date of rainy season in southwest China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2017,41(4):702-712.(in Chinese)
[20]Wang B,Liu J,Hyung J K,et al.Recent change of the global monsoon precipitation(1979-2008)[J].Climate Dynamics,2012,39(5):1123-1135.
[21]袁文德,郑江坤,董奎.1962-2012年西南地区极端降水事件的时空变化特征[J].资源科学,2014,36(4):766-772.Yuan W D,Zheng J K,Dong K.Spatial and temporal variation in extreme precipitation events in southwestern China during 1962-2012[J].Resources Science,2014,36(4):766-772.(in Chinese)
[22]黎琮炜,覃卫坚,高安宁.1961-2013年广西洪涝灾害时空分布特征及成因[J].气象研究与应用,2015,36(1):81-84.Li Z W,Qin W J,Gao A N.Analysis on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of flood disasters during1961-2013 and its causes in Guangxi[J].Journal Of Meteorological Research And Application,2015,36(1):81-84.(in Chinese)
[23]黄荣辉,刘永,王林,等.2009年秋至2010年春我国西南地区严重干旱的成因分析[J].大气科学,2012,36(3):43-47.Huang R H,Liu Y,Wang L,et al.Analyses of causes of severe drought occurring in southwest China from the fall of 2009to the spring of 2010[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2012,36(3):43-47.(in Chinese)
[24]董谢琼,段旭.西南地区降水量的气候特征及变化趋势[J].气象科学,1998,18(3):240-246.Dong X Q,Duan X.Climatic characteristics and variation tendency of precipitation in the southwest region of China[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,1998,18(3):240-246.(in Chinese)
[25]罗玉,范广周,周定文,等.西南地区极端降水变化趋势[J].气象科学,2015,35(5):581-586.Luo Y,Fan G Z,Zhou D W,et al.Extreme precipitation trend of southwest China in recent 41 years[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2015,35(5):581-586.(in Chinese)
[26]Liu L,Xu Z X.Regionalization of precipitation and the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme precipitation in southwestern China[J].Natural Hazards,2016,80(2):195-1211.
[27]Liu M X,Xu X L,Alexander Y S,et al.Is southwestern China experiencing more frequent precipitation extremes[J].Environmental Research Letters,2014,9(6):1-14.
[28]Li Z X,He Y Q,Wilfred H T,et al.Altitude dependency of trends of daily climate extremes in southwestern China during 1961-2008[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2012,22(3):416-430.
[29]Li Z X,He Y Q,Wang P Y,et al.Changes of daily climate extremes in southwestern China during 1961-2008[J].Global and Planetary Change,2012,80(81):255-272.
[30]杨金虎,张强,王劲松,等.近60年来西南地区旱涝变化及极端和持续性特征认识[J].地理科学,2015,35(10):1333-1340.Yang J H,Zhang Q,Wang J S,et al.Extreme and persistent feature of drought and flood of southwest China in past 60years[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(10):1333-1340.(in Chinese)
[31]尹晗,李耀辉.我国西南干旱研究最新进展综述[J].干旱气象,2013,31(1):182-193.Yin H,Li Y H.Summary of advance on drought study in southwest China[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology,2013,31(1):182-193.(in Chinese)
[32]Yang P,Xiao Z N,Yang J,et al.Characteristics of clustering extreme drought events in China during 1961-2010[J].Acta Meteorological Sinica,2013,27(2):186-198.
[33]IPCC.Climate change 2013:the physical science basis[M].Cambridge,UK and New York,USA:Cambridge University Press,2013:1535-1539.
[34]利容千,王建波.植物逆境细胞及生理学[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2002:53-70.Li R Q,Wang J B.Plant stress physiology[M].Wuhan:Wu Han University Press,2002:53-70.(in Chinese)
[35]祝稳.西北干旱区植被覆盖动态及其对极端气温和降水过程的响应[D].兰州:西北师范大学,2015:38-39Zhu W.Spatial-temporal dynamics of vegetation coverage and its response to extreme temperature and precipitation processes over the arid region of northwest China[D].Lanzhou:Northwest Normal University,2015:38-39.(in Chinese)
[36]陈晓晨,徐影,姚遥.不同升温阈值下中国地区极端气候事件变化预估[J].大气科学,2015,39(6):1123-1135.Chen X C,Xu Y,Yao Y.Changes in climate extremes over China in a 2℃,3℃,and 4℃warmer world[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2015,39(6):1123-1135.(in Chinese)
[37]晏红明,李清泉,孙丞虎,等.中国西南区域雨季开始和结束日期划分标准的研究[J].大气科学,2013,37(5):1111-1128.Yan H M,Li Q Q,Sun C H,et al.Criterion for determining the onset and end of the rainy season in southwest China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2013,37(5):1111-1128.(in Chinese)
[38]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第二版)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:63-65.Wei F Y.Modern climate statistics diagnosis and prediction technology[M].Beijing:China Meteorology Press,2007:63-65.(in Chinese)
[39]李国栋,田海峰,彭剑峰,等.基于小波和M-K方法的商丘气温时间序列分析[J].气象与环境学报,2013,29(3):78-84.Li G D,Tian H F,Peng J F,et al.Time series of air temperature based on methods of a wavelet analysis and a Mann-Kendall test in Shangqiu[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2013,29(3):78-84.(in Chinese)