全球变暖“停滞”研究综述
|
摘要
全球变暖"停滞"现象自提出以来,备受关注,是近来全球气候变化领域的热点问题。全球变暖停滞主要表现为全球平均表面温度在1998-2012年增温速率明显偏低。除此之外,大气环流和海洋环流也发生了显著改变。在归因分析方面,很多科学家认为太平洋年代际振荡发挥了重要作用,另外的可能因素还有大西洋经向翻转环流和南极底层水的改变等。然而,由于观测资料在时间一致性和空间覆盖区域等方面存在偏差,从而为全球变暖停滞增添了诸多不确定性。但气候系统内部变率发生改变,导致深层海洋吸收热量增多是众多科学家的共识。尝试解答变暖停滞研究中的不确定性问题,观测资料的丰富和完善是必要条件。
Global warming "hiatus" has attracted much attention since it was put forward, which is a hot issue in the field of global climate change. It is mainly manifested by the lower warming rate of the global mean air surface temperature than before during 1998-2012. Besides, the atmospheric circulation and ocean circulation have also changed significantly. In the attribution analysis of global warming "hiatus", many scientists believe that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation plays an important role. Other possible factors may include changes of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and Antarctic Bottom Water. However, there are biases in temporal consistence and spatial coverage of observation data, which increase the uncertainty of global warming "hiatus". Nevertheless, it is the consensus of many scientists that the internal variability of the climate system changed and then led to the increased absorption of heat in the deep ocean. If the uncertainty of the global warming hiatus is hoped to be resolved, the enrichment and improvement of observation data is a tough requirement.
Global warming "hiatus" has attracted much attention since it was put forward, which is a hot issue in the field of global climate change. It is mainly manifested by the lower warming rate of the global mean air surface temperature than before during 1998-2012. Besides, the atmospheric circulation and ocean circulation have also changed significantly. In the attribution analysis of global warming "hiatus", many scientists believe that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation plays an important role. Other possible factors may include changes of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and Antarctic Bottom Water. However, there are biases in temporal consistence and spatial coverage of observation data, which increase the uncertainty of global warming "hiatus". Nevertheless, it is the consensus of many scientists that the internal variability of the climate system changed and then led to the increased absorption of heat in the deep ocean. If the uncertainty of the global warming hiatus is hoped to be resolved, the enrichment and improvement of observation data is a tough requirement.
引文
[1] 葛全胜, 王芳, 王绍武, 等. 对全球变暖认识的七个问题的确定与不确定性[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2014, 24(1): 1-6. Ge Quansheng, Wang Fang, Wang Shaowu, et al. Certainty and uncertainty in global warming studies[J]. China Population Resources and Environment, 2014, 24(1): 1-6.
[2] Easterling D R, Wehner M F. Is the climate warming or cooling?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2009, 36(8): L08706.
[3] Knight J, Kennedy J J, Folland C, et al. Do global temperature trends over the last decade falsify climate predictions?[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2009, 90(8): S22-S23.
[4] Kerr R A. Climate change. What happened to global warming? Scientists say just wait a bit[J]. Science, 2009, 326(5949): 28-29.
[5] IPCC. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013
[6] Liu Bo, Zhou Tianjun. Atmospheric footprint of the recent warming slowdown[J]. Scientific Reports, 2017, 7: 40947.
[7] England M H, McGregor S, Spence P, et al. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4(3): 222-227.
[8] Lean J L, Rind D H. How will Earth's surface temperature change in future decades?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2009, 36(15): 15708.
[9] Kosaka Y, Xie Shangping. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling[J]. Nature, 2013, 501(7467): 403-407.
[10] Chen Xianyao, Tung K K. Climate. Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration[J]. Science, 2014, 345(6199): 897-903.
[11] Karl T R, Arguez A, Huang Boying, et al. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus[J]. Science, 2015, 348(6242): 1469-1472.
[12] Huang Jianbin, Zhang Xiangdong, Zhang Qiyi, et al. Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2017, 7(12): 875-879.
[13] 王绍武, 罗勇, 赵宗慈, 等. 全球变暖的停滞还能持续多久?[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(6): 465-468. Wang Shaowu, Luo Yong, Zhao Zongci, et al. How long will the pause of global warming stay again?[J]. Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis, 2014, 10(6): 465-468.
[14] 陈幸荣, 蔡怡, 谭晶, 等. 全球变暖hiatus现象的研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(8): 947-955. Chen Xingrong, Cai Yi, Tan Jing, et al. Research progress on hiatus in the process of global warming[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2014, 29(8): 947-955.
[15] 宋斌, 智协飞, 胡耀兴. 全球变暖停滞的形成机制研究进展[J]. 大气科学学报, 2015, 38(2): 145-154. Song Bin, Zhi Xiefei, Hu Yaoxing. A review of recent studies on global warming hiatus[J]. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 38(2): 145-154.
[16] 苏京志, 温敏, 丁一汇, 等. 全球变暖趋缓研究进展[J]. 大气科学, 2016, 40(6): 1143-1153. Su Jingzhi, Wen Min, Ding Yihui. Hiatus of global warming: a review[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2016, 40(6): 1143-1153.
[17] 赵宗慈, 罗勇, 黄建斌. 围绕全球变暖“停滞”的争论[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2016, 12(6): 571-574. Zhao Zongci, Luo Yong, Huang Jianbin. Debate on global warming “hiatus”[J]. Climate Change Research, 2016, 12(6): 571-574.
[18] Met Office. The recent pause in global warming (2): what are the potential causes?[R]. Devon: Met Office, 2013: 1-22.
[19] Met Office. The recent pause in global warming (1): what do observations of the climate system tell us?[R]. Devon: Met Office, 2013, 1-27.
[20] Mcgregor S, Timmermann A, Stuecker M F, et al. Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4(10): 888-892.
[21] Trenberth K E, Fasullo J T, Branstator G, et al. Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4(10): 911-916.
[22] Meehl G A, Arblaster J M, Fasullo J T, et al. Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2011, 1(7): 360-364.
[23] Hu Shineng, Fedorov A V. The extreme El Niňo of 2015–2016 and the end of global warming hiatus[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2017, 44(8): 3816-3824.
[24] Meehl G A, Hu Aixue, Arblaster J M, et al. Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the interdecadal pacific oscillation[J]. Journal of Climate, 2013, 26(18): 7298-7310.
[25] Gao Libao, Rintoul S R, Yu Weidong. Recent wind-driven change in Subantarctic Mode Water and its impact on ocean heat storage[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2017, 8(1): 58-63.
[26] Medhaug I, Stolpe M B, Fischer E M, et al. Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’[J]. Nature, 2017, 545(7652): 41-47.
[27] Du Yan, Zhang Yuhong, Feng Ming, et al. Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s[J]. Scientific Reports, 2015, 5: 16050.
[28] Tokinaga H, Xie Shangping, Deser C, et al. Slowdown of the Walker circulation driven by tropical Indo-Pacific warming[J]. Nature, 2012, 491(7424): 439-443.
[29] Merrifield M A. A shift in western tropical Pacific sea level trends during the 1990s[J]. Journal of Climate, 2011, 24(15): 4126-4138.
[30] Feng Ming, Mcphaden M J, Lee T. Decadal variability of the Pacific subtropical cells and their influence on the southeast Indian Ocean[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2010, 37(9): L09606.
[31] 丁一汇, 柳艳菊, 梁苏洁, 等. 东亚冬季风的年代际变化及其与全球气候变化的可能联系[J]. 气象学报, 2014, 72(5): 835-852. Ding Yihui, Liu Yanju, Liang Sujie, et al. Interdec-adal variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and its possible links to global climate change[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2014, 72(5): 835-852.
[32] Hansen J, Sato M, Kharecha P, et al. Earth's energy imbalance and implications[J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2011, 11(9): 27031-27105.
[33] Murphy D M. Little net clear-sky radiative forcing from recent regional redistribution of aerosols[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2013, 6(4): 258-262.
[34] Solomon S, Rosenlof K H, Portmann R W, et al. Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to decadal changes in the rate of global warming[J]. Science, 2010, 327(5970): 1219-1223.
[35] Hedemann C, Mauritsen T, Jungclaus J, et al. The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2017, 7(5): 336-339.
[36] Levitus S, Antonov J I, Boyer T P, et al. World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0-2 000 m), 1955-2010[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2012, 39(10): L10603.
[37] Page M L. No end to the warming[J]. New Scientist, 2013, 220(2946): 34-38.
[38] Guemas V, Doblas-Reyes F J, Andreu-Burillo I, et al. Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2013, 3(7): 649-653.
[39] Levitus S, Antonov J I, Boyer T P, et al. Global ocean heat content 1955-2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2009, 36(7): L07608.
[40] Lyman J M, Good S A, Gouretski V V, et al. Robust warming of the global upper ocean[J]. Nature, 2010, 465(7296): 334-337.
[41] Balmaseda M A, Trenberth K E, Kallen E, et al. Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2013, 40(9): 1754-1759.
[42] Trenberth K E, Fasullo J T. An apparent hiatus in global warming?[J]. Earth’s Future, 2013, 1(1): 19-32.
[43] Heffernan O. Pacific puzzle[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4(3): 167-169.
[44] Huber M, Knutti R. Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2014, 7(9): 651-656.
[45] Trenberth K E. An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth's global energy[J]. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2009, 1(1): 19-27.
[46] Trenberth K E, Fasullo J T, Kiehl J. Earth’s global energy budget[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2009, 90(3): 311-324.
[47] Jaccard S L. Pacific and Atlantic synchronized[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2012, 5(9): 594-596.
[48] Song Yi, Yu Yongqiang, Lin Pengfei. The hiatus and accelerated warming decades in CMIP5 Simulations[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2014, 31(6): 1316-1330.
[49] Chen Xingrong, Liu Shan, Cai Yi, et al. Potential effects of subduction rate in the key ocean on global warming hiatus[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2018, 37(3): 63-68.
[50] Clement A C, Seager R, Cane M A, et al. An ocean dynamical thermostat[J]. Journal of Climate, 1996, 9(9): 2190-2196.
[51] Cane M A, Clement A C, Kaplan A, et al. Twentieth-century sea surface temperature trends[J]. Science, 1997, 275(5302): 957-960.
[52] Mcphaden M J, Zhang Dongxiao. Slowdown of the meridional overturning circulation in the upper Pacific Ocean[J]. Nature, 2002, 415(6872): 603-608.
[53] Liu Zhengyu. Dynamics of interdecadal climate variability: a historical perspective[J]. Journal of Climate, 2012, 25(6): 1963-1995.
[54] Latif M, Barnett T P. Causes of decadal climate variability over the north pacific and north America[J]. Science, 1994, 266(5185): 634-637.
[55] Zhang Ronghua, Rothstein L M, Busalacchi A J. Origin of upper-ocean warming and El Niňo change on decadal scales in the tropical Pacific Ocean[J]. Nature, 1998, 391(6670): 879-883.
[56] Zhang R H, Rothstein L M, Busalacchi A J, et al. Interannual and decadal variability of the subsurface thermal structure in the Pacific Ocean: 1961-90[J]. Climate Dynamics, 1999, 15(10): 703-717.
[57] Cowtan K, Way R G. Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2014, 140(683): 1935-1944.
[58] Hausfather Z, Cowtan K, Clarke D C, et al. Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records[J]. Science Advances, 2017, 3(1): e1601207.
[59] Huang Boyin, Thorne P W, Banzon V F, et al. Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature, version 5 (ERSSTv5): upgrades, validations, and intercomparisons[J]. Journal of Climate, 2017, 30(20): 8179-8205.
[60] Jones P. The reliability of global and hemispheric surface temperature records[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2016, 33(3): 269-282.
[2] Easterling D R, Wehner M F. Is the climate warming or cooling?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2009, 36(8): L08706.
[3] Knight J, Kennedy J J, Folland C, et al. Do global temperature trends over the last decade falsify climate predictions?[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2009, 90(8): S22-S23.
[4] Kerr R A. Climate change. What happened to global warming? Scientists say just wait a bit[J]. Science, 2009, 326(5949): 28-29.
[5] IPCC. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013
[6] Liu Bo, Zhou Tianjun. Atmospheric footprint of the recent warming slowdown[J]. Scientific Reports, 2017, 7: 40947.
[7] England M H, McGregor S, Spence P, et al. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4(3): 222-227.
[8] Lean J L, Rind D H. How will Earth's surface temperature change in future decades?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2009, 36(15): 15708.
[9] Kosaka Y, Xie Shangping. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling[J]. Nature, 2013, 501(7467): 403-407.
[10] Chen Xianyao, Tung K K. Climate. Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration[J]. Science, 2014, 345(6199): 897-903.
[11] Karl T R, Arguez A, Huang Boying, et al. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus[J]. Science, 2015, 348(6242): 1469-1472.
[12] Huang Jianbin, Zhang Xiangdong, Zhang Qiyi, et al. Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2017, 7(12): 875-879.
[13] 王绍武, 罗勇, 赵宗慈, 等. 全球变暖的停滞还能持续多久?[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(6): 465-468. Wang Shaowu, Luo Yong, Zhao Zongci, et al. How long will the pause of global warming stay again?[J]. Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis, 2014, 10(6): 465-468.
[14] 陈幸荣, 蔡怡, 谭晶, 等. 全球变暖hiatus现象的研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(8): 947-955. Chen Xingrong, Cai Yi, Tan Jing, et al. Research progress on hiatus in the process of global warming[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2014, 29(8): 947-955.
[15] 宋斌, 智协飞, 胡耀兴. 全球变暖停滞的形成机制研究进展[J]. 大气科学学报, 2015, 38(2): 145-154. Song Bin, Zhi Xiefei, Hu Yaoxing. A review of recent studies on global warming hiatus[J]. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 38(2): 145-154.
[16] 苏京志, 温敏, 丁一汇, 等. 全球变暖趋缓研究进展[J]. 大气科学, 2016, 40(6): 1143-1153. Su Jingzhi, Wen Min, Ding Yihui. Hiatus of global warming: a review[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2016, 40(6): 1143-1153.
[17] 赵宗慈, 罗勇, 黄建斌. 围绕全球变暖“停滞”的争论[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2016, 12(6): 571-574. Zhao Zongci, Luo Yong, Huang Jianbin. Debate on global warming “hiatus”[J]. Climate Change Research, 2016, 12(6): 571-574.
[18] Met Office. The recent pause in global warming (2): what are the potential causes?[R]. Devon: Met Office, 2013: 1-22.
[19] Met Office. The recent pause in global warming (1): what do observations of the climate system tell us?[R]. Devon: Met Office, 2013, 1-27.
[20] Mcgregor S, Timmermann A, Stuecker M F, et al. Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4(10): 888-892.
[21] Trenberth K E, Fasullo J T, Branstator G, et al. Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4(10): 911-916.
[22] Meehl G A, Arblaster J M, Fasullo J T, et al. Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2011, 1(7): 360-364.
[23] Hu Shineng, Fedorov A V. The extreme El Niňo of 2015–2016 and the end of global warming hiatus[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2017, 44(8): 3816-3824.
[24] Meehl G A, Hu Aixue, Arblaster J M, et al. Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the interdecadal pacific oscillation[J]. Journal of Climate, 2013, 26(18): 7298-7310.
[25] Gao Libao, Rintoul S R, Yu Weidong. Recent wind-driven change in Subantarctic Mode Water and its impact on ocean heat storage[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2017, 8(1): 58-63.
[26] Medhaug I, Stolpe M B, Fischer E M, et al. Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’[J]. Nature, 2017, 545(7652): 41-47.
[27] Du Yan, Zhang Yuhong, Feng Ming, et al. Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s[J]. Scientific Reports, 2015, 5: 16050.
[28] Tokinaga H, Xie Shangping, Deser C, et al. Slowdown of the Walker circulation driven by tropical Indo-Pacific warming[J]. Nature, 2012, 491(7424): 439-443.
[29] Merrifield M A. A shift in western tropical Pacific sea level trends during the 1990s[J]. Journal of Climate, 2011, 24(15): 4126-4138.
[30] Feng Ming, Mcphaden M J, Lee T. Decadal variability of the Pacific subtropical cells and their influence on the southeast Indian Ocean[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2010, 37(9): L09606.
[31] 丁一汇, 柳艳菊, 梁苏洁, 等. 东亚冬季风的年代际变化及其与全球气候变化的可能联系[J]. 气象学报, 2014, 72(5): 835-852. Ding Yihui, Liu Yanju, Liang Sujie, et al. Interdec-adal variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and its possible links to global climate change[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2014, 72(5): 835-852.
[32] Hansen J, Sato M, Kharecha P, et al. Earth's energy imbalance and implications[J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2011, 11(9): 27031-27105.
[33] Murphy D M. Little net clear-sky radiative forcing from recent regional redistribution of aerosols[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2013, 6(4): 258-262.
[34] Solomon S, Rosenlof K H, Portmann R W, et al. Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to decadal changes in the rate of global warming[J]. Science, 2010, 327(5970): 1219-1223.
[35] Hedemann C, Mauritsen T, Jungclaus J, et al. The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2017, 7(5): 336-339.
[36] Levitus S, Antonov J I, Boyer T P, et al. World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0-2 000 m), 1955-2010[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2012, 39(10): L10603.
[37] Page M L. No end to the warming[J]. New Scientist, 2013, 220(2946): 34-38.
[38] Guemas V, Doblas-Reyes F J, Andreu-Burillo I, et al. Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2013, 3(7): 649-653.
[39] Levitus S, Antonov J I, Boyer T P, et al. Global ocean heat content 1955-2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2009, 36(7): L07608.
[40] Lyman J M, Good S A, Gouretski V V, et al. Robust warming of the global upper ocean[J]. Nature, 2010, 465(7296): 334-337.
[41] Balmaseda M A, Trenberth K E, Kallen E, et al. Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2013, 40(9): 1754-1759.
[42] Trenberth K E, Fasullo J T. An apparent hiatus in global warming?[J]. Earth’s Future, 2013, 1(1): 19-32.
[43] Heffernan O. Pacific puzzle[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4(3): 167-169.
[44] Huber M, Knutti R. Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2014, 7(9): 651-656.
[45] Trenberth K E. An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth's global energy[J]. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2009, 1(1): 19-27.
[46] Trenberth K E, Fasullo J T, Kiehl J. Earth’s global energy budget[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2009, 90(3): 311-324.
[47] Jaccard S L. Pacific and Atlantic synchronized[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2012, 5(9): 594-596.
[48] Song Yi, Yu Yongqiang, Lin Pengfei. The hiatus and accelerated warming decades in CMIP5 Simulations[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2014, 31(6): 1316-1330.
[49] Chen Xingrong, Liu Shan, Cai Yi, et al. Potential effects of subduction rate in the key ocean on global warming hiatus[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2018, 37(3): 63-68.
[50] Clement A C, Seager R, Cane M A, et al. An ocean dynamical thermostat[J]. Journal of Climate, 1996, 9(9): 2190-2196.
[51] Cane M A, Clement A C, Kaplan A, et al. Twentieth-century sea surface temperature trends[J]. Science, 1997, 275(5302): 957-960.
[52] Mcphaden M J, Zhang Dongxiao. Slowdown of the meridional overturning circulation in the upper Pacific Ocean[J]. Nature, 2002, 415(6872): 603-608.
[53] Liu Zhengyu. Dynamics of interdecadal climate variability: a historical perspective[J]. Journal of Climate, 2012, 25(6): 1963-1995.
[54] Latif M, Barnett T P. Causes of decadal climate variability over the north pacific and north America[J]. Science, 1994, 266(5185): 634-637.
[55] Zhang Ronghua, Rothstein L M, Busalacchi A J. Origin of upper-ocean warming and El Niňo change on decadal scales in the tropical Pacific Ocean[J]. Nature, 1998, 391(6670): 879-883.
[56] Zhang R H, Rothstein L M, Busalacchi A J, et al. Interannual and decadal variability of the subsurface thermal structure in the Pacific Ocean: 1961-90[J]. Climate Dynamics, 1999, 15(10): 703-717.
[57] Cowtan K, Way R G. Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2014, 140(683): 1935-1944.
[58] Hausfather Z, Cowtan K, Clarke D C, et al. Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records[J]. Science Advances, 2017, 3(1): e1601207.
[59] Huang Boyin, Thorne P W, Banzon V F, et al. Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature, version 5 (ERSSTv5): upgrades, validations, and intercomparisons[J]. Journal of Climate, 2017, 30(20): 8179-8205.
[60] Jones P. The reliability of global and hemispheric surface temperature records[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2016, 33(3): 269-282.