气候变化下中国潜在植被演替及其敏感性
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摘要
潜在植被的研究能够真实反映气候条件对植被形态变化的影响,是植被-环境分类与关系研究的起点,也是全球变化与陆地生态系统研究的关键,对区域植被生态的恢复和重建具有重要的指导意义。本研究基于综合顺序分类系统,对过去30年(1986—2015年)和IPCC5发布的RCP4.5情景下未来3个时期(2030s、2050s和2080s)潜在植被的空间分布进行了GIS模拟,并分析了潜在植被对气候变化响应的敏感性。结果表明:(1)中国分布的潜在植被类型数量及各类在不同时期所占比例均存在差异,同时炎热极干热带荒漠类(VIIA)为各个时期共同缺失的潜在植被类型。(2)潜在植被的分布面积整体上呈现出冷干型潜在植被类型面积逐渐减少、暖湿型潜在植被类型面积逐渐增加的趋势,具体表现为扩展型、缩减型和波动型3类;潜在植被类组的重心发生了不同方向、不同距离的移动变化。(3)中国潜在植被对气候变化的响应存在敏感性差异,其空间分布形态总体呈现出不同敏感性程度的区域相间分布的特点。敏感性高的区域、敏感性较高的区域和敏感性较低的区域分别占国土总面积的2.28%、14.39%和43.82%。
The study of potential vegetation can reveal the impacts of climate on vegetation. It is the starting point for studying vegetation-environmental classification and relationships,and the key point for studying global change and terrestrial ecosystems. It has guiding significance for the restoration and reconstruction of regional vegetation. Using the comprehensive sequential classification system( CSCS),we carried out a GIS simulation study on the spatial distribution of potential vegetation in China in the past 30 years( 1986-2015) and the future three periods( 2030 s,2050 s and 2080 s) under the RCP4.5 scenarios issued by IPCC5,and analyzed its sensibility to climate change. The results showed that:( 1) Differences existed in the number of potential vegetation classes and the proportion of each class in different periods. The tropical-extrarid tropical desert( VIIA) was commonly absent in all periods.( 2) With respect to the distribution area of potential vegetation,the area of cold-dry potential vegetation decreased whereas that of warmhumid potential vegetation increased,with extension,reduction and fluctuation being the three typical variation patterns. Moreover,the gravity centers of potential vegetation categories moved in different directions and at different distance.( 3) The sensitivity of potential vegetation to climate change differed,with different sensitivity regions showing an interphase distribution. The distribution areas of regions with the highest,higher,and lower sensitivity accounted for 2.28%,14.39% and 43.82% of the total national area,respectively.
The study of potential vegetation can reveal the impacts of climate on vegetation. It is the starting point for studying vegetation-environmental classification and relationships,and the key point for studying global change and terrestrial ecosystems. It has guiding significance for the restoration and reconstruction of regional vegetation. Using the comprehensive sequential classification system( CSCS),we carried out a GIS simulation study on the spatial distribution of potential vegetation in China in the past 30 years( 1986-2015) and the future three periods( 2030 s,2050 s and 2080 s) under the RCP4.5 scenarios issued by IPCC5,and analyzed its sensibility to climate change. The results showed that:( 1) Differences existed in the number of potential vegetation classes and the proportion of each class in different periods. The tropical-extrarid tropical desert( VIIA) was commonly absent in all periods.( 2) With respect to the distribution area of potential vegetation,the area of cold-dry potential vegetation decreased whereas that of warmhumid potential vegetation increased,with extension,reduction and fluctuation being the three typical variation patterns. Moreover,the gravity centers of potential vegetation categories moved in different directions and at different distance.( 3) The sensitivity of potential vegetation to climate change differed,with different sensitivity regions showing an interphase distribution. The distribution areas of regions with the highest,higher,and lower sensitivity accounted for 2.28%,14.39% and 43.82% of the total national area,respectively.
引文
车彦军,赵军,师银芳,等.2014.基于CSCS和Reg CM3模型的21世纪末中国潜在植被.生态学杂志,33(2):447-454.
车彦军,赵军,张明军,等.2016.不同气候变化情景下的2070-2099年中国潜在植被及其敏感性.生态学报,36(10):1-11.
陈晓晨,徐影,许崇海,等.2014.CMIP5全球气候模式对中国地区降水模拟能力的评估.气候变化研究进展,10(3):217-225.
成爱芳,冯起,张健恺,等.2015.未来气候情景下气候变化响应过程研究综述.地理科学,35(1):84-90.
董思言,高学杰.2014.长期气候变化一IPCC第五次评估报告解读.气候变化研究进展,10(1):56-59.
胡自治,高彩霞.1995.草原综合顺序分类法的新改进---类的划分指标及其分类检索图.草业学报,4(3):1-7.
李飞,赵军,赵传燕,等.2008.中国潜在植被空间分布格局.生态学报,28(11):5347-5355.
李飞,赵军,赵传燕,等.2011.中国干旱半干旱区潜在植被演替.生态学报,31(3):689-697.
李红梅,马玉寿.2009.改进的综合顺序分类法在青海草地分类中的应用.草业学报,18(2):76-82.
倪健.2002.BIOME系列模型:主要原理与应用.植物生态学报,26(4):481-488.
秦大河,Stocker T,259名作者和TSU(驻伯尔尼和北京).2014.IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论.气候变化研究进展,10(1):1-6.
任国玉.2004.中国北方地区的本底植被.生态学报,24(6):1287-1293.
任继周,胡自治,牟新待.1980.草原的综合顺序分类法及其草原发生学意义.中国草地,(1):12-24.
任继周.1985.草原调查与规划.北京:农业出版社.
任继周,梁天刚,陈全功.2003.中国草业开发专家系统(Ver2.0).北京:电子工业出版社.
沈永平,王国亚.2013.IPCC第一工作组第五次评估报告对全球气候变化认知的最新科学要点.冰川冻土,35(5):1068-1076.
翁恩生,周广胜.2005.用于全球变化研究的中国植被功能型划分.植物生态学报,29(1):81-97.
肖宜安,张斯斯,闫小红,等.2015.全球气候变暖影响植物鄄传粉者网络的研究进展.生态学报,35(12):3871-3880.
叶笃正.1992.中国的全球变化预研究.北京:气象出版社.
赵传燕,冯兆东,南忠仁,等.2007.黄土高原祖厉河流域潜在植被分布模拟研究.地理学报,62(1):52-61.
赵茂盛,Ronald PN,延晓冬,等.2002.气候变化对中国植被可能影响的模拟.地理学报,57(1):28-38.
赵军.2007.天然草地生态信息图谱与草业生态信息学的理论与实践研究(博士学位论文).兰州:甘肃农业大学.
赵军,马小平,魏伟.2014.近50年黑河流域潜在植被的演替及生态环境变化研究.草业学报,23(5):61-68.
中华人民共和国中央人民政府网.2008.环境保护部关于印发《全国生态脆弱区保护规划纲要》的通知[EB/OL].[2017-07-21].http://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2009/content_1250928.htm
周广胜,张新时.1996.全球气候变化的中国气候-植被分类研究.植物学报,38(1):8-17.
Alex H,Prentice IC.1996.BIOME3:An equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model based on ecophysiological constraints,resource availability,and competition among plant functional types.Global Biogeochemical Cycles,10:693-709.
Chen L,Frauenfeld OW.2014.Surface air temperature changes over the 20th and 21st centuries in China simulated by 20CMIP5 models.Journal of Climate,27:3920-3937.
Holdridge LR.1947.Determination of word plant formations from simple climatic data.Science,105:367-368.
IPCC.2001.Climate Change in 2001:The Science of Climate Change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
IPCC.2013.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis,Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
Liang TG,Feng QS,Cao JJ,et al.2012.Changes in global potential vegetation distributions from 1911 to 2000 as simulated by the Comprehensive Sequential Classification System approach.Chinese Science Bulletin,57:1298-1310.
Lin HL,Zhao J,Liang TG,et al.2012.A classification indices-based model for net primary productivity(NPP)and potential productivity of vegetation in China.International Journal of Biomathematics,5:1-23.
Moss RH,Edmonds JA,Hibbard KA,et al.2010.The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment.Nature,463:747-756.
Ni J,Sykes MT,Prentice IC,et al.2000.Modeling the vegetation of China using the process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME3.Global Ecology and Biogeography,9:463-479.
Ren JZ,Hu ZZ,Zhao J,et al.2008.A grassland classification system and its application in China.The Rangeland Journal,30:199-209.
Yuan QZ,Wu SH,Dai EF,et al.2017.NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation of China to climate change in the past and future.Journal of Geographical Sciences,27:131-142.
Zhao J,Li F,Fu HY,et al.2007.A DEM-based partition adjustment for the interpolation of annual cumulative temperature in China//Chen JM,Pu YX,eds.Proceedings of SPIE,Geoinformatics 2007:Geospatial Information Science.Bellingham:SPIE Press:1-11.
Zhu WQ,Pan YZ,Liu X,et al.2006.Spatio-temporal distribution of net primary productivity along the northeast China transect and its response to climatic change.Journal of Forestry Research,17:93-98.
车彦军,赵军,张明军,等.2016.不同气候变化情景下的2070-2099年中国潜在植被及其敏感性.生态学报,36(10):1-11.
陈晓晨,徐影,许崇海,等.2014.CMIP5全球气候模式对中国地区降水模拟能力的评估.气候变化研究进展,10(3):217-225.
成爱芳,冯起,张健恺,等.2015.未来气候情景下气候变化响应过程研究综述.地理科学,35(1):84-90.
董思言,高学杰.2014.长期气候变化一IPCC第五次评估报告解读.气候变化研究进展,10(1):56-59.
胡自治,高彩霞.1995.草原综合顺序分类法的新改进---类的划分指标及其分类检索图.草业学报,4(3):1-7.
李飞,赵军,赵传燕,等.2008.中国潜在植被空间分布格局.生态学报,28(11):5347-5355.
李飞,赵军,赵传燕,等.2011.中国干旱半干旱区潜在植被演替.生态学报,31(3):689-697.
李红梅,马玉寿.2009.改进的综合顺序分类法在青海草地分类中的应用.草业学报,18(2):76-82.
倪健.2002.BIOME系列模型:主要原理与应用.植物生态学报,26(4):481-488.
秦大河,Stocker T,259名作者和TSU(驻伯尔尼和北京).2014.IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论.气候变化研究进展,10(1):1-6.
任国玉.2004.中国北方地区的本底植被.生态学报,24(6):1287-1293.
任继周,胡自治,牟新待.1980.草原的综合顺序分类法及其草原发生学意义.中国草地,(1):12-24.
任继周.1985.草原调查与规划.北京:农业出版社.
任继周,梁天刚,陈全功.2003.中国草业开发专家系统(Ver2.0).北京:电子工业出版社.
沈永平,王国亚.2013.IPCC第一工作组第五次评估报告对全球气候变化认知的最新科学要点.冰川冻土,35(5):1068-1076.
翁恩生,周广胜.2005.用于全球变化研究的中国植被功能型划分.植物生态学报,29(1):81-97.
肖宜安,张斯斯,闫小红,等.2015.全球气候变暖影响植物鄄传粉者网络的研究进展.生态学报,35(12):3871-3880.
叶笃正.1992.中国的全球变化预研究.北京:气象出版社.
赵传燕,冯兆东,南忠仁,等.2007.黄土高原祖厉河流域潜在植被分布模拟研究.地理学报,62(1):52-61.
赵茂盛,Ronald PN,延晓冬,等.2002.气候变化对中国植被可能影响的模拟.地理学报,57(1):28-38.
赵军.2007.天然草地生态信息图谱与草业生态信息学的理论与实践研究(博士学位论文).兰州:甘肃农业大学.
赵军,马小平,魏伟.2014.近50年黑河流域潜在植被的演替及生态环境变化研究.草业学报,23(5):61-68.
中华人民共和国中央人民政府网.2008.环境保护部关于印发《全国生态脆弱区保护规划纲要》的通知[EB/OL].[2017-07-21].http://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2009/content_1250928.htm
周广胜,张新时.1996.全球气候变化的中国气候-植被分类研究.植物学报,38(1):8-17.
Alex H,Prentice IC.1996.BIOME3:An equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model based on ecophysiological constraints,resource availability,and competition among plant functional types.Global Biogeochemical Cycles,10:693-709.
Chen L,Frauenfeld OW.2014.Surface air temperature changes over the 20th and 21st centuries in China simulated by 20CMIP5 models.Journal of Climate,27:3920-3937.
Holdridge LR.1947.Determination of word plant formations from simple climatic data.Science,105:367-368.
IPCC.2001.Climate Change in 2001:The Science of Climate Change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
IPCC.2013.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis,Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
Liang TG,Feng QS,Cao JJ,et al.2012.Changes in global potential vegetation distributions from 1911 to 2000 as simulated by the Comprehensive Sequential Classification System approach.Chinese Science Bulletin,57:1298-1310.
Lin HL,Zhao J,Liang TG,et al.2012.A classification indices-based model for net primary productivity(NPP)and potential productivity of vegetation in China.International Journal of Biomathematics,5:1-23.
Moss RH,Edmonds JA,Hibbard KA,et al.2010.The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment.Nature,463:747-756.
Ni J,Sykes MT,Prentice IC,et al.2000.Modeling the vegetation of China using the process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME3.Global Ecology and Biogeography,9:463-479.
Ren JZ,Hu ZZ,Zhao J,et al.2008.A grassland classification system and its application in China.The Rangeland Journal,30:199-209.
Yuan QZ,Wu SH,Dai EF,et al.2017.NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation of China to climate change in the past and future.Journal of Geographical Sciences,27:131-142.
Zhao J,Li F,Fu HY,et al.2007.A DEM-based partition adjustment for the interpolation of annual cumulative temperature in China//Chen JM,Pu YX,eds.Proceedings of SPIE,Geoinformatics 2007:Geospatial Information Science.Bellingham:SPIE Press:1-11.
Zhu WQ,Pan YZ,Liu X,et al.2006.Spatio-temporal distribution of net primary productivity along the northeast China transect and its response to climatic change.Journal of Forestry Research,17:93-98.
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