开放经济下OFDI对产业结构升级效应及传导路径
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摘要
开放经济下对外直接投资(OFDI)已成为我国融入世界经济的主要途径,在优化产业结构、推进经济转型等方面扮演着重要角色。根据OFDI与产业结构升级及传导路径的互动机理分析,在对安徽省OFDI投资概况和产业结构现状进行分析的基础上,选取2003—2017年相关数据为样本构建VAR模型,运用ADF检验、脉冲响应函数等方法从产业结构总水平角度,实证分析得出短期内安徽省OFDI所能带来的产业结构升级效应并不显著的结论。进而从具体传导路径角度,采用主成分分析法,从10个变量中提取主成分构建VAR模型,运用脉冲响应等方法实证分析得出安徽省OFDI可通过贸易、省内投资、就业和技术路径来促进产业结构升级。为此,安徽省应扩大OFDI规模,提升OFDI质量和效益;增强企业竞争实力和科技创新能力,优化对外投资结构;发挥政府宏观调控和政策引导作用,加大对企业的扶持力度。
Outw ard foreign direct investment( OFDI) has become the main w ay for China to integrate into the w orld economy under the open economy,w hich plays an important role in optimizing the industrial structure and promoting the economic transformation. Based on the interaction mechanism betw een OFDI and industrial structure upgrading and transmission path,the present situation is analyzed about the OFDI and industrial structure in Anhui Province. The empirical analysis from perspective of the overall level of industrial structure show s that the effect of industrial structure upgrading brought by OFDI in Anhui Province is not significant in the short term. The VAR model is constructed from perspective of the specific transmission path,and empirical analysis is carried out by using principal component analysis and impulse response. It is pointed out that OFDI in Anhui Province can promote the upgrading of its industrial structure through trade,intra-provincial investment,employment and technological path. Therefore,the scale of OFDI investment should be expanded,and the quality and efficiency of OFDI should be improved; the competitiveness of enterprises and technological innovation capabilities should be enhanced, and the structure of OFDI should be optimized; the provincial government should play the role of macro-control and policy guidance,beef up the support for enterprises.
Outw ard foreign direct investment( OFDI) has become the main w ay for China to integrate into the w orld economy under the open economy,w hich plays an important role in optimizing the industrial structure and promoting the economic transformation. Based on the interaction mechanism betw een OFDI and industrial structure upgrading and transmission path,the present situation is analyzed about the OFDI and industrial structure in Anhui Province. The empirical analysis from perspective of the overall level of industrial structure show s that the effect of industrial structure upgrading brought by OFDI in Anhui Province is not significant in the short term. The VAR model is constructed from perspective of the specific transmission path,and empirical analysis is carried out by using principal component analysis and impulse response. It is pointed out that OFDI in Anhui Province can promote the upgrading of its industrial structure through trade,intra-provincial investment,employment and technological path. Therefore,the scale of OFDI investment should be expanded,and the quality and efficiency of OFDI should be improved; the competitiveness of enterprises and technological innovation capabilities should be enhanced, and the structure of OFDI should be optimized; the provincial government should play the role of macro-control and policy guidance,beef up the support for enterprises.
引文
[1]张竹云,耿艳军.新常态下安徽省产业结构优化研究[J].湖北经济学院学报,2015(12):24-25.
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[17]顾雪松,韩立岩.产业结构差异与对外直接投资的出口效应——“中国-东道国”视角的理论与实证[J].经济研究,2016(4):102-115.
[18]张原.中国OFDI能实现母国与东道国就业双赢吗?——基于投资与就业产业结构视角的研究[J].金融与经济,2018(10):50-61.
[19]俞佳根,叶世康.空间视角下中国对外直接投资与产业结构升级水平研究[J].商业时代,2014(34):127-128.
[20]刘利.我国OFDI对国内产业结构的影响研究——基于灰色关联度理论的实证分析[J].企业经济,2014(11):81-85.
[21]王丽,张岩.对外直接投资与母国产业结构升级之间的关系研究——基于1990—2014年OECD国家的样本数据考察[J].世界经济研究,2016(11):60-69.
[22]王运良,李富有. OFDI、金融生态运行效率与产业结构升级[J].经济问题探索,2018(6):135-143.
[23]俞佳根.浙江省对外直接投资与产业结构升级实证研究——基于2002—2012年面板数据[J].财经论丛,2014(8):10-15.
[24]邱玉玲. OFDI对产业结构的影响研究——以江苏省为例[J].对外经贸,2016(9):43-48.
[25]窦骁.江苏对外直接投资对产业结构升级的影响[D].扬州:扬州大学,2018.
[26]殷晓红. OFDI逆向技术溢出对辽宁省区域创新能力影响的实证分析[J].经济师,2019(2):133-134.
[27]徐德云.产业结构升级形态决定、测度的一个理论解释及验证[J].财政研究,2008(1):46-49.
[28]刘敏.山西省对外直接投资的产业结构升级效应研究[D].太原:山西财经大学,2017.
[29]李媛,李孟佳.中国对“一带一路”沿线国家投资潜力与方向研究[J].沈阳工业大学学报(社会科学版),2019,12(1):24-30.
[2] Hymer S H. The international operations of national firms:a study of direct foreign investment[M]. Cambridge,M A:The M IT Press,1976:185-197.
[3] Vernon R. International investment and international trade in the product cycle[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1966(5):77-79.
[4] Dunning J K. Trade,location of economic activities,and the M NE:a search for an eclectic approach[M].London:Palgrave M acmillan,1977:211-236.
[5] Wells L T. Third world multinationals:the rise of foreign investment from developing countries[M].Cambridge:The M IT Press,1983:39-52.
[6] Mathews J A. Strategizing,disequilibrium,and profit[J]. British Journal of Management,2006,19(3):294-297.
[7] Kazuo O,Chung H L. Returns on capital and outward direct foreign investment:the case of six Japan industries[J]. Journal of Asian Economics,1995(6):53-57.
[8] Advincula R. Foreign direct investment,competitiveness,and industrial updating:the case of the republic of Koreas[J]. KDL,2000(3):146-211.
[9] Barrios S,Gorg H,Strob E. Foreign direct investment competition and industrial in the host country[J].European Economic Review,2005(49):1976-1784.
[10]Bitzer J,Kerekes M. Does foreign direct investment transfer technology across borders:new evidence[J].Economics Letters,2008(3):355-358.
[11]Padilla-Perez R,Gomes N C. Outward FDI from small developing economies:firm level strategies and homecountry effects[J]. International Journal of Emerging M arkets,2016,11(4):1-25.
[12]Cozza C,Rabellotti R,Amighini A,et al. Investigating Chinese outw ard foreign direct investments:how can firm-level data help?[J]. China&World Economy,2014,22(6):44-63.
[13]Stefano E,Laria M,Lucia P. The impact of outward FDI on the home country’s labor[J]. International Business Review,2009(18):357-372.
[14]汪琦.对外直接投资对投资国的产业结构调整效应及其传导机制[J].国际贸易问题,2004(5):73-77.
[15]赵乃康.中国对外直接投资产业选择的基准[J].统计与决策,2005(24):59-60.
[16]罗良文.对外直接投资的就业效应:理论及中国实证研究[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2007(5):87-91.
[17]顾雪松,韩立岩.产业结构差异与对外直接投资的出口效应——“中国-东道国”视角的理论与实证[J].经济研究,2016(4):102-115.
[18]张原.中国OFDI能实现母国与东道国就业双赢吗?——基于投资与就业产业结构视角的研究[J].金融与经济,2018(10):50-61.
[19]俞佳根,叶世康.空间视角下中国对外直接投资与产业结构升级水平研究[J].商业时代,2014(34):127-128.
[20]刘利.我国OFDI对国内产业结构的影响研究——基于灰色关联度理论的实证分析[J].企业经济,2014(11):81-85.
[21]王丽,张岩.对外直接投资与母国产业结构升级之间的关系研究——基于1990—2014年OECD国家的样本数据考察[J].世界经济研究,2016(11):60-69.
[22]王运良,李富有. OFDI、金融生态运行效率与产业结构升级[J].经济问题探索,2018(6):135-143.
[23]俞佳根.浙江省对外直接投资与产业结构升级实证研究——基于2002—2012年面板数据[J].财经论丛,2014(8):10-15.
[24]邱玉玲. OFDI对产业结构的影响研究——以江苏省为例[J].对外经贸,2016(9):43-48.
[25]窦骁.江苏对外直接投资对产业结构升级的影响[D].扬州:扬州大学,2018.
[26]殷晓红. OFDI逆向技术溢出对辽宁省区域创新能力影响的实证分析[J].经济师,2019(2):133-134.
[27]徐德云.产业结构升级形态决定、测度的一个理论解释及验证[J].财政研究,2008(1):46-49.
[28]刘敏.山西省对外直接投资的产业结构升级效应研究[D].太原:山西财经大学,2017.
[29]李媛,李孟佳.中国对“一带一路”沿线国家投资潜力与方向研究[J].沈阳工业大学学报(社会科学版),2019,12(1):24-30.