内蒙古气温变暖停滞对其影响因子变化的响应
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摘要
采用中心聚类、M-K检验等方法,以内蒙古地区为例,利用全球Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)、Multivariate ENSO Index(MEI)等大空间尺度数据以及内蒙古及其周边70个气象站1951～2016年平均最低气温、平均气温、平均最高气温、风速、大气压等站点数据,定性、定量揭示变暖停滞的变化特征及其对影响因子变化的响应.结果表明:研究区各分区3类气温在1981～1993年间发生升温突变,此后1998～2008年间陆续发生变暖停滞.不同类型气温在不同分区与各影响因子的相关性优劣有所不同,如平均最低气温与AMO、PDO、MEI、太阳总辐射、风速、大气压的相关性最好,平均气温次之,平均最高气温最差;西部区气温与AMO、PDO、MEI、太阳总辐射相关性较好,中部区气温则与AMO、风速相关性较好等.整体上,1990s～2000s,随各分区AMO上升驱缓、PDO处于正位相阶段但呈下降趋势或处于负位相时、MEI值与太阳总辐射下降、风速、大气压、相对湿度的持续下降/上升及之后的趋势转变,各分区气温发生变暖停滞,如当AMO开始整体进入上升趋缓阶段,风速持续减小8～13a,倾向率达到-0.26～-0.11m/(s·10a)时,平均气温发生变暖停滞.平均最低气温对3类影响因子变化的响应最敏感,平均气温次之.气温变暖停滞是多种影响因子共同作用的结果.本研究丰富了该方面研究成果,对气候变化研究及防灾减灾等有一定借鉴意义.
Focusing on the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, we conducted a comprehensive, qualitative and quantitative analysis on characteristics of the hiatus in temperature increase across the study area, as well as the responses of the hiatus to changes in influencing factors. Several statistical methods, such as the central cluster method and the M-K detection method, were applied in our investigation to the global large-scale spatial data sets(e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and the Multivariate ENSO Index(MEI)), and regional meteorological records(including average minimum temperature, average temperature, average maximum temperature, wind speed and atmospheric pressure) from 1951 to 2016 from 70 different weather stations. The results indicated that,for all sub-regions of the study area, abrupt changes in three temperature measurements occurred from 1981 to 1993, followed by a warming hiatus from 1998 to 2008. The degrees of correlation between the temperature and its influencing factors were different for different temperature measures, which also varied by sub-region. For example, the average minimum temperature had the strongest correlation with AMO, PDO, MEI, and total solar radiation. The correlation weakened the average temperature, and was the weakest for the average highest temperature. The temperature in the western sub-region was closely related to AMO, PDO, MEI and total solar radiation, whereas the temperature in the middle sub-region was closely related to AMO and wind speed. As a whole, from the1990 s to the 2000 s, a time period that was characterized by a weak increasing trend in AMO and a decreasing trend in positive PDO or negative PDO phases, both MEI and total solar radiation showed descending tendencies. At this time, after a long-term increasing/decreasing trend in wind speed, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity, there was a hiatus in the increase in sub-regional temperature. For example, when the increasing trend in AMO slowed, wind speed declined continuously for 8～13 a until its slope reached -0.26 to -0.11 m/(s·10 a), and the increase in average temperature showed a hiatus. Among the three temperatures,the average minimum temperature was most sensitive to changes in the three influencing factors, and the average temperature had a weaker sensitivity. The warming hiatus was a compound result of various factors. This study supplemented the research regarding the mechanisms behind the warming hiatus and provided referencing values for climate change and disaster prevention.
Focusing on the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, we conducted a comprehensive, qualitative and quantitative analysis on characteristics of the hiatus in temperature increase across the study area, as well as the responses of the hiatus to changes in influencing factors. Several statistical methods, such as the central cluster method and the M-K detection method, were applied in our investigation to the global large-scale spatial data sets(e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and the Multivariate ENSO Index(MEI)), and regional meteorological records(including average minimum temperature, average temperature, average maximum temperature, wind speed and atmospheric pressure) from 1951 to 2016 from 70 different weather stations. The results indicated that,for all sub-regions of the study area, abrupt changes in three temperature measurements occurred from 1981 to 1993, followed by a warming hiatus from 1998 to 2008. The degrees of correlation between the temperature and its influencing factors were different for different temperature measures, which also varied by sub-region. For example, the average minimum temperature had the strongest correlation with AMO, PDO, MEI, and total solar radiation. The correlation weakened the average temperature, and was the weakest for the average highest temperature. The temperature in the western sub-region was closely related to AMO, PDO, MEI and total solar radiation, whereas the temperature in the middle sub-region was closely related to AMO and wind speed. As a whole, from the1990 s to the 2000 s, a time period that was characterized by a weak increasing trend in AMO and a decreasing trend in positive PDO or negative PDO phases, both MEI and total solar radiation showed descending tendencies. At this time, after a long-term increasing/decreasing trend in wind speed, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity, there was a hiatus in the increase in sub-regional temperature. For example, when the increasing trend in AMO slowed, wind speed declined continuously for 8～13 a until its slope reached -0.26 to -0.11 m/(s·10 a), and the increase in average temperature showed a hiatus. Among the three temperatures,the average minimum temperature was most sensitive to changes in the three influencing factors, and the average temperature had a weaker sensitivity. The warming hiatus was a compound result of various factors. This study supplemented the research regarding the mechanisms behind the warming hiatus and provided referencing values for climate change and disaster prevention.
引文
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[28]李虹雨,马龙,刘廷玺,等.1951-2014年内蒙古地区气温、降水变化及其关系[J].冰川冻土,2017,39(5):1098-1112.Li H Y, Ma L, Liu T X, et al. Change and relationship of temperature and precipitation in Inner Mongolia during 1951-2014[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2017,39(5):1098-1112.
[29]李双林,王彦明,部永祺.北大西洋年代际振荡(AMO)气候影响的研究评述[J].大气科学学报,2009,32(3):458-465.Li S L, Wang Y M, Gao Y Q. A review of the researches on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and its climate influence.Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences[J]. 2009,32(3):458-465.
[30] Antonello P, Umberto T, Alessandro A. Evidence for the role of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the ocean heat uptake in hiatus prediction[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2017,129(3/4):873-880.
[31]董真,黄世鸿,李子华.相对湿度对大气气溶胶可见辐射吸收的影响[J].气象科学,2000,20(4):487-493.Dong Z,Huang S H, Li Z H. Influence of relative humidity on absorption of visible radiation of aerosol[J]. Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2000,20(4):487-493.
[32]么枕生.用于数值分类的聚类分析[J].海洋湖沼通报,1994,(2):1-12.Yao Z S.Cluster analisis used in numerical classification[J].Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology, 1994,(2):1-12.
[33] Jones P D,Hulme M. Calculating regional climatic time series for temperature and precipitation:Methods and illustrations[J].International Journal of Climatology, 1996,16(4):361-377.
[34]符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义与检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.Fu C B, Wang Q. The definition and detection of the abrupt climatic change[J]. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica,1992,16(4):482-493.
[35]马立平.统计数据标准化一无量纲化方法一现代统计分析方法的学与用(三)[J].北京统计,2000,(3):34-35.Ma L P. Standardization of statistical data-Dimensionless method-Study and application of modern statistical analysis method(three)[J]. Beijing Statistics, 2000,(3):34-35.
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[2]赵艳,刘耀亮,郭正堂,等.全新世气候渐变导致中亚地区植被突变[J].中国科学:地球科学,2017,47(8):927-938.Zhao Y, Liu Y L, Guo Z T, et al. Abrupt vegetation shifts caused by gradual climate changes in central Asia during the Holocene[J].Science China Earth Sciences, 2017,47(8):927-938.
[3] Alley R B, Marotzke J, Nordhaus W D, et al. Abrupt climate change[J]. Science, 2003,299(5615):2005-2010.
[4] Hodell D A, Curtis J H, Brenner M. Possible role of climate in the collapse of Classic Maya civilization[J]. Nature, 1995,375(6530):391-394.
[5] Weiss H, Courty M A, Wetterstorm W, et al. The genesis and collapse of third millennium north mesopotamian civilization[J]. 1993,261(5124):995-1004.
[6]王玉洁,周波涛,任玉玉,等.全球气候变化对我国气候安全影响的思考[J].应用气象学报,2016,27(6):750-758.Wang Y J, Zhou B B, Ren Y Y, et al. Impacts of global climate change on China's climate security[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2016,27(6):750-758.
[7] IPCC. Working group I contribution to the IPCC fifth as-sessment report, Climate Change 2013:The Physical ScienceBasis:Summary for Policymakers[R/OI]. http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5SPM Approved27Sep2013. pdf.
[8] Prodon R, Geniez P, Chylan M, et al. A reversal of the shift towards earlier spring phenology in several Mediterranean reptiles and amphibians during the 1998~2013 warming slowdown[J]. 2017,23(12):5481-5491.
[9] Lempereur M, Limousin J M, Guibal F, et al. Recent climate hiatus revealed dual control by temperature and drought on the stem growth of Mediterranean Quercus ilex[J]. 2017,23(1):1365-2486.
[10] Carter B. There is a problem with global warming... it stopped in 1998.[EB/OL]. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3624242/There-IS-a-problem-with-global-warming...-it-stopped-in-1998.ht ml.
[11] Morello L, Abbott A, Butler D, et al. 2014. 365days:2014 in science[J]. Nature, 2014,516:300-303.
[12] Steinman B A, Mann M E, Miller S K. Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperature[J].Science, 2015,347(6225):988-991.
[13] Yang X S, Vecchi G A, Delworth T L, et al. Extreme north America winter storm season of 2013/14:Roles of radiative forcing and the global warming hiatus[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2015,96(12):S25-S28.
[14] Li C, Stevens B, Marotzke J. Eurasian winter cooling in the warming hiatus of 1998-2012[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2015,42(19):8131-8139.
[15]孙颖,秦大河,刘洪滨.IPCC第五次评估报告不确定性处理方法的介绍[J].气候变化研究进展,2012,8(2):150-153.Sun Y, Qin D H, Liu H B. Introduction to treatment of uncer tainties for IPCC fifth assessment report[J]. Progressus Inquisitiones DE Mutatione Climatis, 2012,8(2):150-153.
[16] Liu P, Sui C H. An observational analysis of the oceanic and atmospheric structure of global-scale multi-decadal variability[J].Advances Atmospheric Sciences, 2014,31(2):316-330.
[17] Li C X, Zhao T B, Ying K R. Effects of anthropogenic aerosols on temperature changes in China during the twentieth century based on CMIP5 models[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2016,125(3/4):529-540.
[18] Li Q X, Yang S,Xu W H,et al. China experiencing the recent warming hiatus[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2015,42(3):889-898.
[19] Solomon S, Rosenlof K H, Portmann R W, et al. Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to decadal changes in the rate of global warming[J]. Science, 2010,327(5970):1219-1223.
[20] Ming Q L, Quan S G, Zhi X H, et al. Variations of the temperature and solar activity in China[J]. Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions, 2014,6:531-539.
[21] Jiang Y,Luo Y, Zhao Z C, et al. Changes in wind speed over China during 1956-2004[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2010,99(3/4):421-430.
[22] Karl T R, Arguez A, Huang B, et al. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus[J]. Science, 2015,348(6242):1469-1472.
[23] Beniston M. Ratios of record high to record low temperatures in Europe exhibit sharp increases since 2000despite a slowdown in the rise of mean temperatures[J]. Climatic Change,2015,129(1/2):225-237.
[24]郭志梅,缪启龙,李雄,等.中国北方地区近50年来气温变化特征的研究[J].地理科学,2005,28(2):176-182.Guo Z M, Miao Q L,Li X, et al. Variation characteristics of temperature over northern China in recent 50years[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2005,28(2):176-182.
[25]陈效逑,彭嘉栋,李慧敏.内蒙古地区气温变化的季节和区域差异[J].地理研究,2009,28(1):27-35.Chen X Q, Peng J D, Li H M. Seasonal and regional differences of air temperature changes in Inner Mongolia[J]. Geographical Research,2009,28(1):27-35.
[26]梁珑腾,马龙,刘廷玺,等.1951-2014年中国北方地区气温突变与变暖停滞的时空变异性[J].中国环境科学,2018,38(5):1601-1615.Liang L T, Ma L, Liu T X, et al. Spatiotemporal variation of the temperature mutation and warming hiatus over northern China during1951-2014[J]. China Environmental Science, 2018,38(5):1601-1615.
[27]黃星,马龙,刘廷玺,等.近60年黄河流域典型区域气温突变与变暖停滞研究[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(11):3253-3262.Huang X, Ma L, Liu T X, et al. Temperature mutation and globe warming stagnate study in typical area of Yellow River basin in recently 60years[J]. China Environmental Science, 2016,36(11):3253-3262.
[28]李虹雨,马龙,刘廷玺,等.1951-2014年内蒙古地区气温、降水变化及其关系[J].冰川冻土,2017,39(5):1098-1112.Li H Y, Ma L, Liu T X, et al. Change and relationship of temperature and precipitation in Inner Mongolia during 1951-2014[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2017,39(5):1098-1112.
[29]李双林,王彦明,部永祺.北大西洋年代际振荡(AMO)气候影响的研究评述[J].大气科学学报,2009,32(3):458-465.Li S L, Wang Y M, Gao Y Q. A review of the researches on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and its climate influence.Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences[J]. 2009,32(3):458-465.
[30] Antonello P, Umberto T, Alessandro A. Evidence for the role of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the ocean heat uptake in hiatus prediction[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2017,129(3/4):873-880.
[31]董真,黄世鸿,李子华.相对湿度对大气气溶胶可见辐射吸收的影响[J].气象科学,2000,20(4):487-493.Dong Z,Huang S H, Li Z H. Influence of relative humidity on absorption of visible radiation of aerosol[J]. Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2000,20(4):487-493.
[32]么枕生.用于数值分类的聚类分析[J].海洋湖沼通报,1994,(2):1-12.Yao Z S.Cluster analisis used in numerical classification[J].Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology, 1994,(2):1-12.
[33] Jones P D,Hulme M. Calculating regional climatic time series for temperature and precipitation:Methods and illustrations[J].International Journal of Climatology, 1996,16(4):361-377.
[34]符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义与检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.Fu C B, Wang Q. The definition and detection of the abrupt climatic change[J]. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica,1992,16(4):482-493.
[35]马立平.统计数据标准化一无量纲化方法一现代统计分析方法的学与用(三)[J].北京统计,2000,(3):34-35.Ma L P. Standardization of statistical data-Dimensionless method-Study and application of modern statistical analysis method(three)[J]. Beijing Statistics, 2000,(3):34-35.
[36] Wu X F, Mao J Y. Interdecadal variability of early summer monsoon rainfall over South China in association with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2017,3 7(2):706-721.
[37] Yamamoto A, Palter J B. The absence of an Atlantic imprint on the multidecadal variability of wintertime European temperature[J].2016,7:1093 O.doi:10.103 8/ncomms 10930.
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