基于变权灰色云模型的江苏省水环境系统脆弱性评价
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摘要
水环境系统脆弱性是水资源利用与生态环境研究的热点问题,通过研究水环境系统的内在机理,综合考虑影响水环境系统脆弱性的资源、环境、经济、社会等因素,借助驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应-管理(DPSIRM)框架构建水环境系统脆弱性评价指标体系。在此基础上,构建基于变权灰色云模型的评价方法,对2004~2014年江苏省水环境系统脆弱性进行评价。结果表明:2004~2014年水环境系统脆弱性指数由47. 056提高到63. 210,脆弱性等级由"重度脆弱"演化为"中度脆弱",并长期维持在"中度脆弱的"等级,2014年出现了向"轻度脆弱"状态转变的趋势。分析各个子系统对水环境系统脆弱性影响程度可知,影响子系统和响应子系统对江苏省水环境脆弱性系统的影响程度逐年增加;而压力子系统和管理子系统对水环境系统脆弱性的影响程度逐年下降;其它子系统对水环境系统脆弱性的影响维持在一定水平小幅度波动。
Water environmental system vulnerability has gradually become a hot topic in water resource utilization and eco-environment,by inherent mechanism study of water environmental system,an evaluation index system based on DPSIRM model is established, which comprehensively takes the influences including resources,environment,economy and society into consideration. On that basis,weight-varying gray cloud model is put forward. The model is used to evaluate the water environmental system vulnerability of Jiangsu province from 2004 to 2014. In conclusion,from 2004 to 2014,the vulnerability index of the was increased rapidly,rising from47. 056 to 63. 210. In 2004,the stayed at IV grade. After 2004,the water environmental system vulnerability downgraded to Ⅲ grade level and remained at Ⅲ grade level,and it shows an improvement trend. Then this paper analyzes the impact degree of each subsystem on water environmental system vulnerability,the result shows that,from 2004 to 2014,the influence of impact subsystem and responses subsystem on water environmental system vulnerability is increasing. On the contrary, the influence of pressure subsystem and management subsystem on water environmental system vulnerability presents a downward tendency. The influence of other subsystems on water environmental system vulnerability is maintained at a certain level with minor fluctuation.
Water environmental system vulnerability has gradually become a hot topic in water resource utilization and eco-environment,by inherent mechanism study of water environmental system,an evaluation index system based on DPSIRM model is established, which comprehensively takes the influences including resources,environment,economy and society into consideration. On that basis,weight-varying gray cloud model is put forward. The model is used to evaluate the water environmental system vulnerability of Jiangsu province from 2004 to 2014. In conclusion,from 2004 to 2014,the vulnerability index of the was increased rapidly,rising from47. 056 to 63. 210. In 2004,the stayed at IV grade. After 2004,the water environmental system vulnerability downgraded to Ⅲ grade level and remained at Ⅲ grade level,and it shows an improvement trend. Then this paper analyzes the impact degree of each subsystem on water environmental system vulnerability,the result shows that,from 2004 to 2014,the influence of impact subsystem and responses subsystem on water environmental system vulnerability is increasing. On the contrary, the influence of pressure subsystem and management subsystem on water environmental system vulnerability presents a downward tendency. The influence of other subsystems on water environmental system vulnerability is maintained at a certain level with minor fluctuation.
引文
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(1)本文在数据分析过程中所使用的数据均来源于《中国水资源公报》、《中国统计年鉴》以及《中国环境统计年鉴》,受篇幅限制,没有将指标数据列出,如果读者有需要,可以向作者索取.
[2]崔胜辉,洪华生,黄云凤,等.生态安全研究进展[J].生态学报,2005,25(4):861-868.CUI S H,HONG H S, HUANG Y F, et al. Progress of the ecological security research[J]. Acta Ecological Sinica,2005,25(4):861-868.
[3] DONG H,GENG Y,FUJITA T,et al. Uncovering regional disparity of China’s water footprint and inter-provincial virtual water flows[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2014,500-501:120-130.
[4] CAI J,YIN H,VARIS O. Impacts of industrial transition on water use intensity and energy-related carbon intensity in China:a spatio-temporal analysis during 2003-2012[J]. Applied Energy,2016,183:1112-1122.
[5] CAI J,VARIS O,YIN H. China’s water resources vulnerability:A spatio-temporal analysis during 2003-2013[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production. 2017,142:2901-2910.
[6]刘佳骏,董锁成,李泽红.中国水资源承载力综合评价研究[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(02):258-269.LIU J J, DONG S C, LI Z H. Comprehensive evaluation of China’s water resources carrying capacity[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(02):258-269.
[7]张学真,胡安焱.水资源研究中的系统思维[J].水资源保护,2006,22(2):84-87.ZHANG X Z, HU A Y. Systemic thinking in water resources research[J]. Water Resources Protection,2006, 22(2):84-87.
[8]林山杉,武健强,张勃夫.地下水环境脆弱程度图编图方法研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2000(03):6-8.LIN S S,WU J Q,ZHANG B F. Study on drawing method of underground water environmental vulnerability map[J]. Hydrogeology&Engineering Geology,2000(03):6-8.
[9]阮本清,韩宇平,王浩,等.水资源短缺风险的模糊综合评价[J].水利学报,2005,36(08):906-912.RUAN B Q,HAN Y P,WANG H,et al. Fuzzy comprehensive assessment of water shortage risk[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2005,36(08):906-912.
[10]潘争伟,金菊良,刘晓薇,等.水资源利用系统脆弱性机理分析与评价方法研究[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(09):1599-1609.PAN Z W,JIN J L,LIU X W,et al. Mechanism and evaluation method of water resources utilization system vulnerability[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2016,31(09):1599-1609.
[11]马海良,施陈玲,王蕾.城镇化进程中的江苏水资源承载力研究——基于组合赋权和升半Γ型分布函数[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(11):1697-1703.MA H L,SHI C L,WANG L. The research of water environmental carrying capacity in the process of urbanization in Jiangsu—based on combination of empowerment and half liter ofΓdistribution function[J]. Resources and Environment in Yangtze Basin,2016,25(11):1697-1703.
[12]潘争伟,金菊良,吴开亚,等.区域水环境系统脆弱性指标体系及综合决策模型研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(04):518-525.PAN Z W,JIN J L,WU K Y,et al. Research on the indexes and policy-decision-making models of regional water environmental system vulnerability[J]. Resources and Environment in Yangtze Basin,2014,23(04):518-525.
[13]曹琦,陈兴鹏,师满江.基于DPSIR概念的城市水资源安全评价及调控[J].资源科学,2012,34(08):1591-1599.CAO Q,CHEN X P,SHI M J. Evaluation of water resources security in the urban area and regulating methods based on DPSIR:A case of Zhangye city[J]. Resources Science,2012,34(08):1591-1599.
[14]张峰,杨俊,席建超,等.基于DPSIRM健康距离法的南四湖湖泊生态系统健康评价[J].资源科学,2014,36(4):831-839.ZHANG F,YANG J,XI J C,et al. Ecosystem health assessment of Nansihu lake based on DPSIRM and health distance model[J]. Resources Science,2014,36(4):831-839.
[15]罗军刚,解建仓,阮本清.基于熵权的水资源短缺风险模糊综合评价模型及应用[J].水利学报,2008,39(09):1092-1097.LUO J G,XIE J C,RUAN B Q. Fuzzy comprehensive assessment model for water shortage risk based on entropy weight[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2008, 39(09):1092-1097.
[16] SUNT,ZHANG H,WANG Y. The application of information entropy in basin level water waste permits allocation in China[J]. Resources,Conservation and Recycling. 2013,70:50-54.
[17]康有,陈元芳,顾圣华,等.基于随机森林的区域水资源可持续利用评价[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(03):34-38.KANG Y,CHEN Y F,GU S H,et al. Assessment of sustainable utilization of regional water resources based on random forest[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2014, 32(03):34-38.
[18]高超,梅亚东,吕孙云,等.基于AHP-Fuzzy法的汉江流域水资源承载力评价与预测[J].长江科学院院报,2014,31(09):21-28.GAO C,MEI Y D,LU S Y,et al. Assessment and prediction of water resources carrying capacity based on AHP-Fuzzy method:a case study on hanjiang river basin[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2014,31(09):21-28.
[19] WANG J,DIAO M,YUE K. Optimization on pinch point temperature difference of ORC system based on AHP-Entropy method[J]. Energy,2017,141:97-107.
[20]许朗,黄莺,刘爱军.基于主成分分析的江苏省水资源承载力研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2011,20(12):1468-1474.XU L,HUANG Y,LIU A J. Study on the carrying capacity of water resources in Jiangsu province based on the principal component analysis[J]. Resources and Environment in Yangtze Basin,2011,20(12):1468-1474.
[21]董四方,董增川,陈康宁.基于DPSIR概念模型的水资源系统脆弱性分析[J].水资源保护,2010,26(04):1-3.DONG S F, DONG Z C, CHEN K N. Analysis of water resources system vulnerability based on DPSIR conceptual model[J]. Water Resources Protection, 2010, 26(04):1-3.
[22]王西琴,高伟,曾勇.基于SD模型的水生态承载力模拟优化与例证[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014,34(05):1352-1360.WANG X Q,GAO W,CENG Y. Methods and case study on water ecological carrying capacity using SD model[J]. Systems Engineering Theory&Practice, 2014, 34(05):1352-1360.
[23]潘争伟,金菊良,刘晓薇,等.水资源利用系统脆弱性机理分析与评价方法研究[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(09):1599-1609.PAN Z W,JIN J L,LIU X W,et al. Mechanism and evaluation method of water resources utilization system vulnerability[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2016,31(09):1599-1609.
[24]程超,童绍玉,彭海英,等.滇中城市群水资源生态承载力的平衡性研究[J].资源科学,2016,38(08):1561-1571.CHEN C,TONG S Y,PENG H Y,et al. Ecological carrying capacity of water resources in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration area[J]. Resources Science,2016,38(08):1561-1571.
[25]汪朝辉,王克林,熊鹰,等.湖南省洪涝灾害脆弱性评估和减灾对策研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2003,12(06):586-592.WANG C H, WANG K L, XIONG Y, et al. Assessment of the vulnerability of flood-waterlogging disaster and countermeasures of disaster reduction in Hunan province[J]. Resources and Environment in Yangtze Basin,2003,12(06):586-592.
[26]张路路,郑新奇,张春晓,等.基于变权模型的唐山城市脆弱性演变预警分析[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(11):1858-1870.ZHANG L L,ZHENG X Q,ZHANG C X,et al. Early-warning of urban vulnerability in Tangshan city based on variable weight model[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2016, 31(11):1858-1870.
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(1)本文在数据分析过程中所使用的数据均来源于《中国水资源公报》、《中国统计年鉴》以及《中国环境统计年鉴》,受篇幅限制,没有将指标数据列出,如果读者有需要,可以向作者索取.