莺琼盆地钻井井壁稳定性定量风险评价
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摘要
南海莺琼盆地前期作业实践表明,钻井施工过程中工程风险事件发生概率较高,处理难度大,井壁失稳问题尤其突出,严重制约了安全高效钻井。针对这一问题,文中开展了莺琼盆地钻井井壁稳定性分析:首先,建立井壁稳定性计算模型输入地质力学参数不确定性的量化表征方法,得到地质力学参数概率分布;然后,生成符合各参数概率分布特征的随机数,并将其代入压力当量密度定量计算模型,得到压力当量密度预测结果,进而通过正态信息扩散估计得到地层坍塌及破裂压力当量密度概率分布;最后,基于定量风险评价方法实现对地层井壁稳定性的定量评价与分析。实例分析表明,基于该方法得到的风险评价结果与实际风险发生情况相吻合,说明该方法可进行有效风险预测,有助于保障安全高效钻井作业。
Drilling practice of Yingqiong Basin in the South China Sea shows that the probability of drilling engineering risk is high,and no satisfied treatment has been found already. In order to solve this problem, the quantitative assessment method of wellbore stability is studied. Firstly, a quantitative characterization method of the uncertainty of the geomechanical parameters input in the borehole stability calculation model is established, and the probability distribution of the geomechanical parameters is obtained.Then, based on the Monte Carlo simulation method, the random number which accords with the probability distribution characteristics is substituted into the calculation model to obtain the calculation results of formation fracture and collapse pressure,and the probability distribution of formation collapse and fracture pressure is obtained according to the diffusion estimation of normal information. Finally, based on the quantitative risk assessment method, the quantitative assessment and analysis of formation wellbore stability are realized. The case study shows that the risk assessment results based on this method are consistent with the actual risk occurrence, which indicates that the method established in this paper can predict the risk and help to ensure safe and efficient drilling operations.
Drilling practice of Yingqiong Basin in the South China Sea shows that the probability of drilling engineering risk is high,and no satisfied treatment has been found already. In order to solve this problem, the quantitative assessment method of wellbore stability is studied. Firstly, a quantitative characterization method of the uncertainty of the geomechanical parameters input in the borehole stability calculation model is established, and the probability distribution of the geomechanical parameters is obtained.Then, based on the Monte Carlo simulation method, the random number which accords with the probability distribution characteristics is substituted into the calculation model to obtain the calculation results of formation fracture and collapse pressure,and the probability distribution of formation collapse and fracture pressure is obtained according to the diffusion estimation of normal information. Finally, based on the quantitative risk assessment method, the quantitative assessment and analysis of formation wellbore stability are realized. The case study shows that the risk assessment results based on this method are consistent with the actual risk occurrence, which indicates that the method established in this paper can predict the risk and help to ensure safe and efficient drilling operations.
引文
[1]陈庭根,管志川.钻井工程理论与技术[M].东营:石油大学出版社,2006:51-54.
[2]蒋希文.钻井事故与复杂问题[M].2版.北京:石油工业出版社,2006:72-80.
[3] OTTESEN S,ZHENG R H,MCCANN R C. Borehole stability assessment using quantitative risk analysis[R]. SPE 52864,1999.
[4]贾利春,陈杨,余晟.基于统一强度理论的水平井井壁稳定性分析[J].断块油气田,2018,25(5):639-643.
[5]于雷,张敬辉,刘宝锋,等.微裂缝发育泥页岩地层井壁稳定技术研究与应用[J].石油钻探技术,2017,45(3):27-31.
[6]贾利春,黄晓嘉,郭正温.井壁稳定性研究中考虑中间主应力强度准则的对比分析[J].断块油气田,2017,24(1):105-111.
[7]王中华.钻井液性能及井壁稳定问题的几点认识[J].断块油气田,2009,16(1):89-91.
[8]杨振杰,李家芬,苏长明,等.井壁加固技术研究进展[J].断块油气田,2008,15(3):99-102.
[9] SHENG Y,REDDISH D,LU Z. Assessment of uncertainties in wellbore stability analysis[J]. Springer Proceedings in Physics,2005,589(1):541-557.
[10]葛洪魁,王爱国.修正Holbrook地层破裂压力预测模型[J].石油钻探技术,2001,29(3):20-22.
[11]黄荣樽,庄锦江.一种新的地层破裂压力预测方法[J].石油钻采工艺,1986,8(3):1-14.
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[13] HEDIO S. Consequences and relevance of drilling vibration on wellbore stability[R]. SPE 52820,1999.
[14]张勇.南海莺琼地区高温高压钻井技术的探索[J].天然气工业,1999,19(1):95-99.
[15]黄熠.南海高温高压勘探钻井技术现状及展望[J].石油钻采工艺,2016,38(6):737-745.
[16]黄静,张超,罗鸣,等.莺琼盆地某高温高压气田井壁稳定性技术研究[J].重庆科技学院学报(自然科学版),2017,19(5):7-11.
[17]李中.南海高温高压气田开发钻完井关键技术现状及展望[J].石油钻采工艺,2016,38(6):730-736.
[18]吴怡,谢仁军,刘书杰,等.考虑温度效应的高温高压直井井壁稳定性规律[J].断块油气田,2019,26(2):253-256.
[19]胜亚楠,管志川,许玉强,等.井壁稳定问题的不确定性分析方法探讨[J].断块油气田,2017,24(6):847-850,866.
[20]肖昌,景艳波,姚棋文,等.井壁稳定性预测方法研究与应用[J].断块油气田,2015,22(1):108-112.
[21]任占春,张光焰,刘恩新,等.井壁稳定技术及其在分支井完井中的应用[J].断块油气田,2002,9(5):50-52.
[22]彭商平,蒲小林,雷刚,等.用模糊综合评判法评价井壁的稳定性[J].断块油气田,2004,11(4):58-59,62.
[23] PAYTEN W, LAW M. Estimating the plastic collapse of pressure vessels using plasticity contours[J]. International Journal of Pressure Vessels&Piping,1998,75(7):529-536.
[24]冯启宁.用测井资料计算地层破裂压力的公式和方法[J].华东石油学院学报,1983,11(3):41-48.
[25] CARUNEANU O.层序地层学原理[M].吴因业,译.北京:石油工业出版社,2009:71-88.
[26]李黎,王永刚.地质统计学应用综述[J].勘探地球物理进展,2006,29(3):163-169.
[27]宫凤强,侯尚骞,岩小明.基于正态信息扩散原理的Mohr-Coulomb强度准则参数概率模型推断方法[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2013,11(3):2225-2234.
[28]茆诗松,程依明,濮晓龙.概率论与数理统计教程[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2004:54-68.
[29]黄崇福.自然灾害风险评价:理论与实践[M].北京:科学出版社,2005:75-78.
[2]蒋希文.钻井事故与复杂问题[M].2版.北京:石油工业出版社,2006:72-80.
[3] OTTESEN S,ZHENG R H,MCCANN R C. Borehole stability assessment using quantitative risk analysis[R]. SPE 52864,1999.
[4]贾利春,陈杨,余晟.基于统一强度理论的水平井井壁稳定性分析[J].断块油气田,2018,25(5):639-643.
[5]于雷,张敬辉,刘宝锋,等.微裂缝发育泥页岩地层井壁稳定技术研究与应用[J].石油钻探技术,2017,45(3):27-31.
[6]贾利春,黄晓嘉,郭正温.井壁稳定性研究中考虑中间主应力强度准则的对比分析[J].断块油气田,2017,24(1):105-111.
[7]王中华.钻井液性能及井壁稳定问题的几点认识[J].断块油气田,2009,16(1):89-91.
[8]杨振杰,李家芬,苏长明,等.井壁加固技术研究进展[J].断块油气田,2008,15(3):99-102.
[9] SHENG Y,REDDISH D,LU Z. Assessment of uncertainties in wellbore stability analysis[J]. Springer Proceedings in Physics,2005,589(1):541-557.
[10]葛洪魁,王爱国.修正Holbrook地层破裂压力预测模型[J].石油钻探技术,2001,29(3):20-22.
[11]黄荣樽,庄锦江.一种新的地层破裂压力预测方法[J].石油钻采工艺,1986,8(3):1-14.
[12]刘向君,罗平亚.测井在井壁稳定性研究中的应用及发展[J].天然气工业,1999,10(6):33-35.
[13] HEDIO S. Consequences and relevance of drilling vibration on wellbore stability[R]. SPE 52820,1999.
[14]张勇.南海莺琼地区高温高压钻井技术的探索[J].天然气工业,1999,19(1):95-99.
[15]黄熠.南海高温高压勘探钻井技术现状及展望[J].石油钻采工艺,2016,38(6):737-745.
[16]黄静,张超,罗鸣,等.莺琼盆地某高温高压气田井壁稳定性技术研究[J].重庆科技学院学报(自然科学版),2017,19(5):7-11.
[17]李中.南海高温高压气田开发钻完井关键技术现状及展望[J].石油钻采工艺,2016,38(6):730-736.
[18]吴怡,谢仁军,刘书杰,等.考虑温度效应的高温高压直井井壁稳定性规律[J].断块油气田,2019,26(2):253-256.
[19]胜亚楠,管志川,许玉强,等.井壁稳定问题的不确定性分析方法探讨[J].断块油气田,2017,24(6):847-850,866.
[20]肖昌,景艳波,姚棋文,等.井壁稳定性预测方法研究与应用[J].断块油气田,2015,22(1):108-112.
[21]任占春,张光焰,刘恩新,等.井壁稳定技术及其在分支井完井中的应用[J].断块油气田,2002,9(5):50-52.
[22]彭商平,蒲小林,雷刚,等.用模糊综合评判法评价井壁的稳定性[J].断块油气田,2004,11(4):58-59,62.
[23] PAYTEN W, LAW M. Estimating the plastic collapse of pressure vessels using plasticity contours[J]. International Journal of Pressure Vessels&Piping,1998,75(7):529-536.
[24]冯启宁.用测井资料计算地层破裂压力的公式和方法[J].华东石油学院学报,1983,11(3):41-48.
[25] CARUNEANU O.层序地层学原理[M].吴因业,译.北京:石油工业出版社,2009:71-88.
[26]李黎,王永刚.地质统计学应用综述[J].勘探地球物理进展,2006,29(3):163-169.
[27]宫凤强,侯尚骞,岩小明.基于正态信息扩散原理的Mohr-Coulomb强度准则参数概率模型推断方法[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2013,11(3):2225-2234.
[28]茆诗松,程依明,濮晓龙.概率论与数理统计教程[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2004:54-68.
[29]黄崇福.自然灾害风险评价:理论与实践[M].北京:科学出版社,2005:75-78.
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