基于不确定性分析的钻井工程风险定量评价方法
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摘要
为建立一套适用于复杂地质环境的钻井工程风险定量评价方法,首先分析地层压力和钻井液循环当量密度的不确定性,得到地层压力和钻井液循环当量密度的概率分布;在此基础上,基于广义应力与强度干涉理论,将广义应力定义为致险因子,即钻井液循环当量密度;将广义强度定义为安全因子,即地层压力;将功能函数定义为井下复杂与事故的风险函数;最终推导建立钻井工程风险概率计算公式,运用该方法可以定量计算钻井作业中危险井段发生风险的概率值。实例分析结果表明风险评价结果与实际发生风险相吻合。
In order to establish a quantitative evaluation method of drilling risks, firstly, the uncertainty of the formation pressure and the equivalent circulation density of drilling fluids were analyzed and the probability distributions of formation pressure and equivalent circulation density of drilling fluids were obtained. Then based on the theory of generalized stress and strength interference, a quantitative evaluation method of drilling risks was established. In this method, the generalized stress is defined as the risk factor, which is the equivalent circulation density of drilling fluid. The generalized intensity is defined as the safety factor, which is the formation pressure. A risk function is also defined. The results of case studies indicate that this method can be used to predict the probability of the drilling risks, which were in good agreement with the actual drilling scenarios.
In order to establish a quantitative evaluation method of drilling risks, firstly, the uncertainty of the formation pressure and the equivalent circulation density of drilling fluids were analyzed and the probability distributions of formation pressure and equivalent circulation density of drilling fluids were obtained. Then based on the theory of generalized stress and strength interference, a quantitative evaluation method of drilling risks was established. In this method, the generalized stress is defined as the risk factor, which is the equivalent circulation density of drilling fluid. The generalized intensity is defined as the safety factor, which is the formation pressure. A risk function is also defined. The results of case studies indicate that this method can be used to predict the probability of the drilling risks, which were in good agreement with the actual drilling scenarios.
引文
[1] 蒋希文.钻井事故与复杂问题[M].2版.北京:石油工业出版社,2006:72-80.
[2] 陈庭根,管志川.钻井工程理论与技术[M].东营:石油大学出版社,2000:51-54.
[3] OTTESEN S,ZHENG R H,MCCANN R C.Borehole stability assessment using quantitative risk analysis [R].SPE 52864,1999.
[4] MOOS D,PESKA P,FINKBEINER T,et al.Comprehensive wellbore stability analysis utilizing quantitative risk assessment [J].Journal of Petroleum Science & Engineering,2003,38(3):97-109.
[5] UDEBUNA J.Improved well design with risk and uncertainty analysis[D].Stavanger:University of Stavanger Norway,2015.
[6] 魏凯,管志川,马金山,等.钻井地质参数的不确定性表征及分析方法[J].中国石油大学学报(自然科学版),2015,39(5):89-93.WEI Kai,GUAN Zhichuan,MA Jinshan,et al.Assessment method for uncertainty of geological parameters in well drilling [J].Journal of China University of Petroleum (Edition of Natural Science),2015,39(5):89-93.
[7] 何沙,王志明.基于层次分析法的高含硫气井钻井风险评价研究[J].钻采工艺,2010,33(2):28-37.HE Sha,WANG Zhiming.High sour gaswell risk assessment based on analytic hierarchy process [J].Drilling & Production Technology,2010,33(2):28-37.
[8] 管志川,胜亚楠,许玉强,等.基于PSO优化BP神经网络的钻井动态风险评估方法[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(8):5-11.GUAN Zhichuan,SHENG Yanan,XU Yuqiang,et al.Dynamic risk assessment method of drilling based on PSO optimized BP neural network [J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2017,13(8):5-11.
[9] 袁智,汪海阁,王海强,等.基于事故树分析的钻井井漏事故危险评价研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(3):107-112.YUAN Zhi,WANG Haige,WANG Haiqiang,et al.Application of fault tree analysis to risk assement of lost circulation hazards in drilling [J].China Safe Science Journal,2010,20(3):107-112.
[10] KHAKZAD J,NIMA F,AMYOTTE P.Quantitative risk analysis of offshore drilling operations:a bayesian approach [J].International Journal of Project Management,2013,31(2):449-458.
[11] 管志川,魏凯,傅盛林,等.基于区间分析的钻井工程风险评价方法[J].石油钻探技术,2013,41(4):15-18.GUAN Zhichuan,WEI Kai,FU Shenglin,et al.Risk evaluation method for drilling engineering based on interval analysis [J].Petroleum Drilling Techniques,2013,41(4):15-18.
[12] 胜亚楠,管志川,赵廷峰.含可信度的地层压力求取方法研究[J].科学技术与工程,2016,16(2):37-42.SHEGN Yanan,GUAN Zhichuan,ZHAO Tingfeng.Study on method of determining the formation pressure with credibility [J].Science Technology and Engineering,2016,16(2):37-42.
[13] SUBRAMANI R,AZAR J.Experimental study on friction pressure drop for non-Newtonian drilling fluids in pipe and annular flow [J].Journal of Physics and Chemistry,2000,13(5):52-59.
[14] 彭齐,樊洪海,周号博.同流变模式钻井液环空层流压耗通用算法[J].石油勘探与开发,2013,40(6):752-756.PENG Qi,FAN Honghai,ZHOU Haobo.General method of calculating annular laminar pressure drop of drilling fluids with different rheological models [J].Petroleum Exploration & Development,2013,40(6):752-756.
[15] 王鄂川,樊洪海,党杨斌.环空附加当量循环密度的计算方法[J].断块油气田,2014,21(5):671-674.WANG Echuan,FAN Honghai,DANG Yangbin.Calculation method of additional equivalent circulating density [J].Fault-Block Oil & Gas Field,2014,21(5):671-674.
[16] 张金波,鄢捷年.高温高压钻井液密度预测新模型的建立[J].钻井液与完井液,2006,23(5):1-3.ZHANG Jinbo,YAN Jienian.The construction of a new model predicting HTHP mud density [J].Drilling Fluid & Completion Fluid,2006,23(5):1-3.
[17] 郭建华,李黔,高自力.高温高压井ECD计算[J].天然气工业,2006,26(8):72-74.TUO Jianhua,LI Qian,GAO Zili.ECD computation for HTHP wells [J].Natural Gas Industry,2006,26(8):72-74.
[18] 赵胜英,鄢捷年,王利国.高温高压条件下钻井液当量静态密度预测模型[J].石油钻探技术,2009,37(3):48-52.ZHAO Shengying,YAN Jienian,WANG Liguo.Prediction model of ECD density at HTHP [J].Petroleum Drilling Techniques,2009,37(3):48-52.
[19] MOSTAFAV V,AADNOY B S,HARELAND G.Model based uncertainty assessment of wellbore stability analyses and downhole pressure estimations [J].Journal of American Rock Mechanics,2011,33(8):46-59.
[20] SUNDARARAJA C,WITT F J.Probabilistic structural mechanics handbook [M].Berlin:Springer,1995:80-92.
[2] 陈庭根,管志川.钻井工程理论与技术[M].东营:石油大学出版社,2000:51-54.
[3] OTTESEN S,ZHENG R H,MCCANN R C.Borehole stability assessment using quantitative risk analysis [R].SPE 52864,1999.
[4] MOOS D,PESKA P,FINKBEINER T,et al.Comprehensive wellbore stability analysis utilizing quantitative risk assessment [J].Journal of Petroleum Science & Engineering,2003,38(3):97-109.
[5] UDEBUNA J.Improved well design with risk and uncertainty analysis[D].Stavanger:University of Stavanger Norway,2015.
[6] 魏凯,管志川,马金山,等.钻井地质参数的不确定性表征及分析方法[J].中国石油大学学报(自然科学版),2015,39(5):89-93.WEI Kai,GUAN Zhichuan,MA Jinshan,et al.Assessment method for uncertainty of geological parameters in well drilling [J].Journal of China University of Petroleum (Edition of Natural Science),2015,39(5):89-93.
[7] 何沙,王志明.基于层次分析法的高含硫气井钻井风险评价研究[J].钻采工艺,2010,33(2):28-37.HE Sha,WANG Zhiming.High sour gaswell risk assessment based on analytic hierarchy process [J].Drilling & Production Technology,2010,33(2):28-37.
[8] 管志川,胜亚楠,许玉强,等.基于PSO优化BP神经网络的钻井动态风险评估方法[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(8):5-11.GUAN Zhichuan,SHENG Yanan,XU Yuqiang,et al.Dynamic risk assessment method of drilling based on PSO optimized BP neural network [J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2017,13(8):5-11.
[9] 袁智,汪海阁,王海强,等.基于事故树分析的钻井井漏事故危险评价研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(3):107-112.YUAN Zhi,WANG Haige,WANG Haiqiang,et al.Application of fault tree analysis to risk assement of lost circulation hazards in drilling [J].China Safe Science Journal,2010,20(3):107-112.
[10] KHAKZAD J,NIMA F,AMYOTTE P.Quantitative risk analysis of offshore drilling operations:a bayesian approach [J].International Journal of Project Management,2013,31(2):449-458.
[11] 管志川,魏凯,傅盛林,等.基于区间分析的钻井工程风险评价方法[J].石油钻探技术,2013,41(4):15-18.GUAN Zhichuan,WEI Kai,FU Shenglin,et al.Risk evaluation method for drilling engineering based on interval analysis [J].Petroleum Drilling Techniques,2013,41(4):15-18.
[12] 胜亚楠,管志川,赵廷峰.含可信度的地层压力求取方法研究[J].科学技术与工程,2016,16(2):37-42.SHEGN Yanan,GUAN Zhichuan,ZHAO Tingfeng.Study on method of determining the formation pressure with credibility [J].Science Technology and Engineering,2016,16(2):37-42.
[13] SUBRAMANI R,AZAR J.Experimental study on friction pressure drop for non-Newtonian drilling fluids in pipe and annular flow [J].Journal of Physics and Chemistry,2000,13(5):52-59.
[14] 彭齐,樊洪海,周号博.同流变模式钻井液环空层流压耗通用算法[J].石油勘探与开发,2013,40(6):752-756.PENG Qi,FAN Honghai,ZHOU Haobo.General method of calculating annular laminar pressure drop of drilling fluids with different rheological models [J].Petroleum Exploration & Development,2013,40(6):752-756.
[15] 王鄂川,樊洪海,党杨斌.环空附加当量循环密度的计算方法[J].断块油气田,2014,21(5):671-674.WANG Echuan,FAN Honghai,DANG Yangbin.Calculation method of additional equivalent circulating density [J].Fault-Block Oil & Gas Field,2014,21(5):671-674.
[16] 张金波,鄢捷年.高温高压钻井液密度预测新模型的建立[J].钻井液与完井液,2006,23(5):1-3.ZHANG Jinbo,YAN Jienian.The construction of a new model predicting HTHP mud density [J].Drilling Fluid & Completion Fluid,2006,23(5):1-3.
[17] 郭建华,李黔,高自力.高温高压井ECD计算[J].天然气工业,2006,26(8):72-74.TUO Jianhua,LI Qian,GAO Zili.ECD computation for HTHP wells [J].Natural Gas Industry,2006,26(8):72-74.
[18] 赵胜英,鄢捷年,王利国.高温高压条件下钻井液当量静态密度预测模型[J].石油钻探技术,2009,37(3):48-52.ZHAO Shengying,YAN Jienian,WANG Liguo.Prediction model of ECD density at HTHP [J].Petroleum Drilling Techniques,2009,37(3):48-52.
[19] MOSTAFAV V,AADNOY B S,HARELAND G.Model based uncertainty assessment of wellbore stability analyses and downhole pressure estimations [J].Journal of American Rock Mechanics,2011,33(8):46-59.
[20] SUNDARARAJA C,WITT F J.Probabilistic structural mechanics handbook [M].Berlin:Springer,1995:80-92.
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