中央林业投资与林业经济增长的互动关系
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摘要
【目的】研究中央林业投资与林业经济增长之间的互动关系,建立中央林业投资效率评价方法体系,明确中央林业投资在林业经济增长中的地位及作用,为衡量中央林业投资利用效率提供实证依据,在促进财政资源优化配置、提高资金使用绩效的同时,推动林业经济增长。【方法】基于1987—2013年数据,采用Stata13.0软件对数据进行处理,利用科布-道格拉斯生产函数分析中央林业投资、林业劳动力投入水平对林业经济增长的贡献率;利用VAR模型测算中央林业投资的滞后期,使用协整关系检验,得出林业经济增长和中央林业投资存在长期协整关系;结合格兰杰因果检验,判断中央林业投资和林业经济增长之间短期的因果关系;根据误差修正模型分别论证当中央林业投资和林业经济增长偏离均衡水平时,在短期内恢复长期均衡的可能性,利用脉冲响应函数,更直观地判断二者变动在长期内对自身和相互之间的影响。【结果】1)中央林业投资对林业经济增长具有正向推动作用,其贡献率为1.517%。2)中央林业投资存在1~2年的滞后期,此后开始发挥作用。长期内林业产值对中央林业投资增长具有收入效应,1%的林业经济增长可带动0.991%的中央林业投资。林业产值无法在短期内促进中央林业投资额迅速增长,但中央林业投资在短期会拉动林业产值的增加。3)中央林业投资与林业产值存在长期均衡关系,且当中央林业投资偏离均衡水平时,在短期内恢复长期均衡的速度快于林业产值。林业产值具有累加效应,中央林业投资对自身存在积累和拉动效应,林业产值对中央林业投资会产生收入效应,中央林业投资对林业产值存在乘数扩大效应。【结论】结合中央林业投资与林业经济增长存在的作用与反作用关系,提出加大中央林业投资力度、坚持持续合理投入、做出长远政策规划、防止年际间大幅度波动及临时性政策变动、完善中央林业投资体制,推进投资主体多元化的政策建议。
【Objective】Study on the interaction relationship between central forestry investment and forestry economic growth and the establishment of the central forestry investment evaluation system are good for clearing the status of central forestry investment in forestry economic growth. This will provide empirical basis for measuring the efficient of central forestry investment,promote optimal allocation of financial resources,increase the fund performance,and also will drive the forestry economic growth.【Method】The software of Stata13. 0 and data from 1987 to 2013 were used in this study.First,the C-D production function was used to analysis the contribution rate about central forestry investment and forestry labor input to forestry economic growth. Then VAR model was utilized to calculate lag phase of forestry investment,cointegration relationship test showed that forestry economic growth had the reaction to forestry investment during the longterm equilibrium and granger causality test to determine the short-term causality between forestry investment and forestry economic growth. Furthermore,error correction model respectively to argue when the central forestry investment and forestry economic growth deviated from its equilibrium level,the possibility to restore the long-term balance in the short time. Finally,impulse response function could more intuitively to response the impact on each other and itself in longterm.【Result】The results shows that: 1) Central forestry investment has a positive role in promoting economic growth with contribution rate of 1. 517%. 2) The lag of central forestry investment is 1 to 2 years and then began to work. Forestry production has a significant pull impact on forestry investment growth which presents 1% of forestry economic growth leading to 0. 991% of forestry investment. Forestry economic growth does not rapidly promote the forestry investment growth,however,the central forestry investment can improve the forestry economic growth in the short term. 3) Central forestry investment and forestry output have a long-term equilibrium relationship and central forestry investment recovers more quickly than forestry production in the short term when both of them deviate from equilibrium level. Forestry production has a cumulative effect and forestry investment has an accumulation and promotion effects on itself. Moreover,forestry production has an income-effect on the forestry investment and the forestry investment generates a multiplier effect to forestry production. 【Conclusion】Because of the forestry investment and forestry economic growth existing the action and reaction,the policy recommendations are proposed as following: to increase central forestry investment and keep a reasonable investment,to make a long-term policy planning in order to prevent the inter-annual large swings and temporary policy changes,and to improve central forestry investment system and promote the diversification of investment.
【Objective】Study on the interaction relationship between central forestry investment and forestry economic growth and the establishment of the central forestry investment evaluation system are good for clearing the status of central forestry investment in forestry economic growth. This will provide empirical basis for measuring the efficient of central forestry investment,promote optimal allocation of financial resources,increase the fund performance,and also will drive the forestry economic growth.【Method】The software of Stata13. 0 and data from 1987 to 2013 were used in this study.First,the C-D production function was used to analysis the contribution rate about central forestry investment and forestry labor input to forestry economic growth. Then VAR model was utilized to calculate lag phase of forestry investment,cointegration relationship test showed that forestry economic growth had the reaction to forestry investment during the longterm equilibrium and granger causality test to determine the short-term causality between forestry investment and forestry economic growth. Furthermore,error correction model respectively to argue when the central forestry investment and forestry economic growth deviated from its equilibrium level,the possibility to restore the long-term balance in the short time. Finally,impulse response function could more intuitively to response the impact on each other and itself in longterm.【Result】The results shows that: 1) Central forestry investment has a positive role in promoting economic growth with contribution rate of 1. 517%. 2) The lag of central forestry investment is 1 to 2 years and then began to work. Forestry production has a significant pull impact on forestry investment growth which presents 1% of forestry economic growth leading to 0. 991% of forestry investment. Forestry economic growth does not rapidly promote the forestry investment growth,however,the central forestry investment can improve the forestry economic growth in the short term. 3) Central forestry investment and forestry output have a long-term equilibrium relationship and central forestry investment recovers more quickly than forestry production in the short term when both of them deviate from equilibrium level. Forestry production has a cumulative effect and forestry investment has an accumulation and promotion effects on itself. Moreover,forestry production has an income-effect on the forestry investment and the forestry investment generates a multiplier effect to forestry production. 【Conclusion】Because of the forestry investment and forestry economic growth existing the action and reaction,the policy recommendations are proposed as following: to increase central forestry investment and keep a reasonable investment,to make a long-term policy planning in order to prevent the inter-annual large swings and temporary policy changes,and to improve central forestry investment system and promote the diversification of investment.
引文
曹盛国,王国卿,沈良伟,等.2011.对林业投资与林业经济增长关系的认识.内蒙古林业调查设计,34(4):116-118.(Cao S G,Wang G Q,Shen L W,et al.2011.Understanding of the\srelationship between forestry investment and forestry economy\sgrowth.Inner Mongolia Forestry Investigation and Design,34(4):116-118.[in Chinese])
陈强.2010.高级计量经济学及stata应用.北京:高等教育出版社.(Chen Q.2010.Advanced econometric and stata applications.Beijing:Higher Education Press.[in Chinese])
冯达,郑云玉,温亚利.2010.改革开放以来我国林业经济增长的实证研究.安徽农业科学,38(19):10357-10359.(Feng D,Zheng Y Y,Wen Y L.2010.Empirical study on economic\sgrowth in China’s forestry since the reform and opening up.Journal of Anhui Agri,38(19):10357-10359.[in Chinese])
国家林业局.1987-2013.中国林业统计年鉴.北京:中国林业出版社.State Forestry Administration.1987-2013 China Forestry Statistical\sYearbook.Beijing:Chinese Forestry Publishing House.
侯方淼,宋维明.2009.林产品对外贸易与林业产业发展的实证研究---以江苏省为例.北京林业大学学报:社会科学版,8(2):57-61.(Hou F M,Song W M.2009.Empirical studies on the relationship\sbetween foreign trade of timber products and forestry industry.Journal of Beijing Forestry University:Social Science Edition,8(2):57-61.[in Chinese])
李彦良.2013.政府林业投资结构的变动对森林资源影响的研究.保定:河北农业大学硕士学位论文.(Li Y L.2013.Study on the government investment structure in forestry\sand the forest source development.Baoding:MS thesis of Hebei\sAgricultural University.[in Chinese])
刘珉.2011.林业投资研究.林业经济,(1):43-49.(Liu M.2011.Study on forestry investment.Forestry Economic,(1):43-49.[in Chinese])
潘炜栋.2013.产业结构对林业经济增长贡献程度的统计分析.特区经济,(10):177-179.(Pan W D.2013.Statistical analysis of contribution degree about\sindustrial structure to forestry economic.Special Zone Economy,(10):177-179.[in Chinese])
邱方明,沈月琴,朱臻,等.2014.林业标准化实施对林业经济增长的影响分析.林业经济问题,34(4):324-329.(Qiu F M,Shen Y Q,Zhu Z,et al.2014.Analysis of forestry\sstandardization impact on forestry economic growth.Issues of\sForestry Economics,34(4):324-329.[in Chinese])
谭贺,张广胜.2010.集体林权改革下的林业经济增长因素分析.林业经济问题,30(3):204-207.(Tan H,Zhang G S.2010.Analysis of forestry economic growth in\sLiaoning Province.Issues of Forestry Economics,30(3):204-207.[in Chinese])
田志华,王忠.2013.广东省环境污染与经济增长的动态关系---基于向量误差修正模型的实证研究.广东商学院学报,(6):4-10.(Tian Z H,Wang Z.2013.Dynamic relationship between environmental\spollution and economic growth in Guangdong Province.Journal of\sGuangdong University of Business Studies,(6):4-10.[in\sChinese])
吴成亮,高岚,林方杉.2007.广东省林业科技进步贡献率的测算与分析.华南农业大学学报:社会科学版,6(4):41-45.(Wu C L,Gao L,Lin F S.2007.Calculation and analysis of the\scontribution rate of forestry science and technology progress in\sGuangdong Province.Journal of South China Agricultural\sUniversity:Social Science Edition,6(4):41-45.[in Chinese])
肖政,陈奕钢,周悦.2012.公共服务投入和林业经济增长动态研究.林业经济问题,32(2):177-184.(Xiao Z,Chen Y G,Zhou Y.2012.Dynamic relationship between\spublic service investment and forestry economic growth.Issues of\sForestry Economics,32(2):177-184.[in Chinese])
于江龙,刘俊昌,陈文汇.2011.我国林业投资与产业经济增长关系研究.价格理论与实践,(9):85-86.(Yu J L,Liu J C,Chen W H.2011.Study on the relationship between\sforestry investment and industry economic growth in China.Price\sTheory and Practice,(9):85-86.[in Chinese])
余智敏,田治威,潘焕学,等.2014.基于VAR模型的林业经济增长与林产品进出口贸易关系研究.广东农业科学,(21):192-196,209.(Yu Z M,Tian Z W,Pan H X,et al.2014.Empirical study on\srelationship between forestry economic growth and import and export\sof forestry products based on VAR model.Guangdong Agricultural\sSciences,(21):192-196,209.[in Chinese])
张彩虹.2001.林业投资与林业经济增长的研究.北京:中国林业出版社.(Zhang C H.2001.Study on forestry investment and forestry economic\sgrowth.Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House.[in Chinese])
赵荣,陈绍志,张英,等.2013.中央林业投资现状、问题与政策建议.林业经济,(6):46-50.(Zhao R,Chen S Z,Zhang Y,et al.2013.Status,problems and policy\srecommendations of central fiscal forestry investment.Forestry\sEconomics,(6):46-50.[in Chinese])
周莉,温亚利,侯波.2005.我国林业基本建设投资的效益分析.北京林业大学学报:社会科学版,4(4):34-36.(Zhou L,Wen Y L,Hou B.2005.Study on the returns on investment\sin forestry infrastructure in China.Journal of Beijing Forestry\sUniversity:Social Science Edition,4(4):34-36.[in Chinese])
Sims C.1980.Macroeconomics and reality:Econometrica,48:1-48.
陈强.2010.高级计量经济学及stata应用.北京:高等教育出版社.(Chen Q.2010.Advanced econometric and stata applications.Beijing:Higher Education Press.[in Chinese])
冯达,郑云玉,温亚利.2010.改革开放以来我国林业经济增长的实证研究.安徽农业科学,38(19):10357-10359.(Feng D,Zheng Y Y,Wen Y L.2010.Empirical study on economic\sgrowth in China’s forestry since the reform and opening up.Journal of Anhui Agri,38(19):10357-10359.[in Chinese])
国家林业局.1987-2013.中国林业统计年鉴.北京:中国林业出版社.State Forestry Administration.1987-2013 China Forestry Statistical\sYearbook.Beijing:Chinese Forestry Publishing House.
侯方淼,宋维明.2009.林产品对外贸易与林业产业发展的实证研究---以江苏省为例.北京林业大学学报:社会科学版,8(2):57-61.(Hou F M,Song W M.2009.Empirical studies on the relationship\sbetween foreign trade of timber products and forestry industry.Journal of Beijing Forestry University:Social Science Edition,8(2):57-61.[in Chinese])
李彦良.2013.政府林业投资结构的变动对森林资源影响的研究.保定:河北农业大学硕士学位论文.(Li Y L.2013.Study on the government investment structure in forestry\sand the forest source development.Baoding:MS thesis of Hebei\sAgricultural University.[in Chinese])
刘珉.2011.林业投资研究.林业经济,(1):43-49.(Liu M.2011.Study on forestry investment.Forestry Economic,(1):43-49.[in Chinese])
潘炜栋.2013.产业结构对林业经济增长贡献程度的统计分析.特区经济,(10):177-179.(Pan W D.2013.Statistical analysis of contribution degree about\sindustrial structure to forestry economic.Special Zone Economy,(10):177-179.[in Chinese])
邱方明,沈月琴,朱臻,等.2014.林业标准化实施对林业经济增长的影响分析.林业经济问题,34(4):324-329.(Qiu F M,Shen Y Q,Zhu Z,et al.2014.Analysis of forestry\sstandardization impact on forestry economic growth.Issues of\sForestry Economics,34(4):324-329.[in Chinese])
谭贺,张广胜.2010.集体林权改革下的林业经济增长因素分析.林业经济问题,30(3):204-207.(Tan H,Zhang G S.2010.Analysis of forestry economic growth in\sLiaoning Province.Issues of Forestry Economics,30(3):204-207.[in Chinese])
田志华,王忠.2013.广东省环境污染与经济增长的动态关系---基于向量误差修正模型的实证研究.广东商学院学报,(6):4-10.(Tian Z H,Wang Z.2013.Dynamic relationship between environmental\spollution and economic growth in Guangdong Province.Journal of\sGuangdong University of Business Studies,(6):4-10.[in\sChinese])
吴成亮,高岚,林方杉.2007.广东省林业科技进步贡献率的测算与分析.华南农业大学学报:社会科学版,6(4):41-45.(Wu C L,Gao L,Lin F S.2007.Calculation and analysis of the\scontribution rate of forestry science and technology progress in\sGuangdong Province.Journal of South China Agricultural\sUniversity:Social Science Edition,6(4):41-45.[in Chinese])
肖政,陈奕钢,周悦.2012.公共服务投入和林业经济增长动态研究.林业经济问题,32(2):177-184.(Xiao Z,Chen Y G,Zhou Y.2012.Dynamic relationship between\spublic service investment and forestry economic growth.Issues of\sForestry Economics,32(2):177-184.[in Chinese])
于江龙,刘俊昌,陈文汇.2011.我国林业投资与产业经济增长关系研究.价格理论与实践,(9):85-86.(Yu J L,Liu J C,Chen W H.2011.Study on the relationship between\sforestry investment and industry economic growth in China.Price\sTheory and Practice,(9):85-86.[in Chinese])
余智敏,田治威,潘焕学,等.2014.基于VAR模型的林业经济增长与林产品进出口贸易关系研究.广东农业科学,(21):192-196,209.(Yu Z M,Tian Z W,Pan H X,et al.2014.Empirical study on\srelationship between forestry economic growth and import and export\sof forestry products based on VAR model.Guangdong Agricultural\sSciences,(21):192-196,209.[in Chinese])
张彩虹.2001.林业投资与林业经济增长的研究.北京:中国林业出版社.(Zhang C H.2001.Study on forestry investment and forestry economic\sgrowth.Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House.[in Chinese])
赵荣,陈绍志,张英,等.2013.中央林业投资现状、问题与政策建议.林业经济,(6):46-50.(Zhao R,Chen S Z,Zhang Y,et al.2013.Status,problems and policy\srecommendations of central fiscal forestry investment.Forestry\sEconomics,(6):46-50.[in Chinese])
周莉,温亚利,侯波.2005.我国林业基本建设投资的效益分析.北京林业大学学报:社会科学版,4(4):34-36.(Zhou L,Wen Y L,Hou B.2005.Study on the returns on investment\sin forestry infrastructure in China.Journal of Beijing Forestry\sUniversity:Social Science Edition,4(4):34-36.[in Chinese])
Sims C.1980.Macroeconomics and reality:Econometrica,48:1-48.