中国农产品价格的异质性特征和分类调控
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摘要
随着新时代社会主要矛盾的转变,不平衡不充分的发展成为改革的重心,这推动了总量型政策向结构性政策的转型。有鉴于此,本文首先选取方差分解分析总量型政策和结构性政策对农产品价格的调控效果,然后运用二项选择离散模型估计政策调控的非对称性,得出如下结论:第一,总量型货币政策和结构性财政政策对农产品价格的调控效果差异显著,其中前者能维持粮食价格的稳定,而后者更能控制鲜菜和肉类价格的波动,这说明通货膨胀不仅是货币现象,供需因素亦会引起价格波动;第二,宏观经济政策对农产品价格的调控存在明显的非对称性,抑制价格下跌较阻止价格上涨更为容易。这意味着政府应因时制宜地对农产品价格进行分类调控,从而确保政策的灵活性和准确性。
Along with the transition of society's principal contradictions,the imbalance and inadequate developments became the core issues of reform,thus the effect of overall policies gradually declined while the effect of structural policies was increasingly highlighted. Therefore,this paper employed a variance decomposition method to analyze the effectiveness of overall monetary policies and structural fiscal policies on agriculture prices,and then utilized a binary choice model to compare the asymmetries of macro-economic policies. The main conclusions are as follows: firstly,the effects of overall monetary policies and structural fiscal policies on agriculture prices show significant differences. The latter can control the prices of vegetable and meat well,and the former can affect price of rice better; secondly,the effects of macro-economic policies on agriculture prices show significant asymmetry. It is hard to control when the prices rise while it is relatively easy to control when the prices decline,which means the government needs to control agriculture prices separately to remain flexible and accurate.
Along with the transition of society's principal contradictions,the imbalance and inadequate developments became the core issues of reform,thus the effect of overall policies gradually declined while the effect of structural policies was increasingly highlighted. Therefore,this paper employed a variance decomposition method to analyze the effectiveness of overall monetary policies and structural fiscal policies on agriculture prices,and then utilized a binary choice model to compare the asymmetries of macro-economic policies. The main conclusions are as follows: firstly,the effects of overall monetary policies and structural fiscal policies on agriculture prices show significant differences. The latter can control the prices of vegetable and meat well,and the former can affect price of rice better; secondly,the effects of macro-economic policies on agriculture prices show significant asymmetry. It is hard to control when the prices rise while it is relatively easy to control when the prices decline,which means the government needs to control agriculture prices separately to remain flexible and accurate.
引文
[1]Friedman B M.Optimal Expectations and the Extreme Information Assumptions of‘Rational Expectations’Macro models[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1979,5(1):23-41.
[2]Frankel J A.Tests of Monetary and Portfolio Balance Models of Exchange Rate Determination[M]//Exchange Rate Theory and Practice.Chicageo:University of Chicago Press,1984:239-260.
[3]张成思.中国CPI通货膨胀率子成分动态传导机制研究[J].世界经济,2009(11):3-12.
[4]马龙,刘澜飚.货币供给冲击是影响我国农产品价格上涨的重要原因吗[J].经济学动态,2010(9):15-20.
[5]张文朗,罗得恩.中国食品价格上涨因素及其对总体通货膨胀的影响[J].金融研究,2010(9):1-16.
[6]Gartner C,Wehinger G D.Core Inflation in Selected European Union Countries[R].Working Paper No.33,1998.
[7]苏应蓉.全球农产品价格波动中金融化因素探析[J].农业经济问题,2011(6):89-95.
[8]翟雪玲,徐雪高,谭智心,等.农产品金融化概念,形成机理及对农产品价格的影响[J].中国农村经济,2013(2):83-95.
[9]Trostle R.Global Agricultural Supply and Demand:Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices[M].Washington DC:Diane Publishing,2008.
[10]石敏俊,王妍,朱杏珍.能源价格波动与粮食价格波动对城乡经济关系的影响---基于城乡投入产出模型[J].中国农村经济,2009(5):4-13.
[11]方福平,李凤博.稻谷价格波动与农民种稻行为动态关系的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2010(12):46-54.
[12]吴军,田娟.结构性通货膨胀解析---基于当前中国通货膨胀问题的思考[J].金融研究,2008(9):91-100.
[13]伍戈,曹红钢.中国的结构性通货膨胀研究---基于CPI与PPI的相对变化[J].金融研究,2014(6):1-16.
[14]Belongia M,King R A.A Monetary Analysis of Food Price Determination[J].American Journal of Agricultural E-conomics,1983,65(1):131-135.
[15]Chambers R G,Just R E.An Investigation of the Effect of Monetary Factors on Agriculture[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1982,9(2):235-247.
[16]陈丹妮.货币政策,通胀压力与农产品价格[J].中国软科学,2014(7):185-192.
[17]温涛,王小华.货币政策对中国农产品价格波动的冲击效应研究[J].当代经济科学,2014(6):20-29.
[18]中国人民银行课题组.我国农产品价格上涨机制研究[J].经济学动态,2011(3):4-11.
[19]郭世勤.关于转换农产品价格形成机制的几个问题[J].经济研究,1993(12):59-65.
[20]侯成琪,龚六堂.部门价格粘性的异质性与货币政策的传导[J].世界经济,2014(7):23-44.
[21]Anand R,Prasad E S,Zhang B.What Measure of Inflation should a Developing Country Central Bank Target?[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2015,74(205):102-116.
[22]Gelos G,Ustyugova Y.Inflation Responses to Commodity Price Shocks-How and Why do Countries Differ?[J].Journal of International Money&Finance,2017(72):28-47.
[23]徐雪高.新一轮农产品价格波动周期:特征、机理及影响[J].财经研究,2008(8):110-119.
[24]周明华.中国农产品价格波动:供需因素还是货币因素?[J].财经问题研究,2014(8):125-128.
[25]李永友,丛树海.我国财政政策时滞的测算与分析---兼论我国财政货币政策在宏观调控中的相对重要性[J].统计研究,2006(10):59-63.
(1)虽然根据文献综述,农业生产资料、产出缺口、城镇居民收入和农村居民收入均对农产品价格的变动具有显著影响,但由于这些变量可能是货币政策和财政政策调控农产品价格的传导渠道,因此将这些变量排除在模型外,以避免遗漏宏观经济政策对农产品价格的解释效用。
(1)“二轮效应”表示该种农产品价格变动是否会引起成本性通货膨胀,即该种农产品是否具有货币属性,其是货币政策对该种农产品价格冲击进行调控的基础。
(2)为了满足稳健性,本文同时估计了i滞后4期、8期和16期情况,其结论基本一致。
(1)货币政策和财政政策冲击变量的选取旨在观察总量调控对农产品价格的影响。
(2)最好的数据选取应是国家财政支农支出与第一产业增加值增长速度的比值,但由于支农支出月度数据不完整,所以利用财政支出代替。
(1)根据上文将财政支出增长率和货币供给增长率通过HP滤波处理,留下循环成分,得到图2。
[2]Frankel J A.Tests of Monetary and Portfolio Balance Models of Exchange Rate Determination[M]//Exchange Rate Theory and Practice.Chicageo:University of Chicago Press,1984:239-260.
[3]张成思.中国CPI通货膨胀率子成分动态传导机制研究[J].世界经济,2009(11):3-12.
[4]马龙,刘澜飚.货币供给冲击是影响我国农产品价格上涨的重要原因吗[J].经济学动态,2010(9):15-20.
[5]张文朗,罗得恩.中国食品价格上涨因素及其对总体通货膨胀的影响[J].金融研究,2010(9):1-16.
[6]Gartner C,Wehinger G D.Core Inflation in Selected European Union Countries[R].Working Paper No.33,1998.
[7]苏应蓉.全球农产品价格波动中金融化因素探析[J].农业经济问题,2011(6):89-95.
[8]翟雪玲,徐雪高,谭智心,等.农产品金融化概念,形成机理及对农产品价格的影响[J].中国农村经济,2013(2):83-95.
[9]Trostle R.Global Agricultural Supply and Demand:Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices[M].Washington DC:Diane Publishing,2008.
[10]石敏俊,王妍,朱杏珍.能源价格波动与粮食价格波动对城乡经济关系的影响---基于城乡投入产出模型[J].中国农村经济,2009(5):4-13.
[11]方福平,李凤博.稻谷价格波动与农民种稻行为动态关系的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2010(12):46-54.
[12]吴军,田娟.结构性通货膨胀解析---基于当前中国通货膨胀问题的思考[J].金融研究,2008(9):91-100.
[13]伍戈,曹红钢.中国的结构性通货膨胀研究---基于CPI与PPI的相对变化[J].金融研究,2014(6):1-16.
[14]Belongia M,King R A.A Monetary Analysis of Food Price Determination[J].American Journal of Agricultural E-conomics,1983,65(1):131-135.
[15]Chambers R G,Just R E.An Investigation of the Effect of Monetary Factors on Agriculture[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1982,9(2):235-247.
[16]陈丹妮.货币政策,通胀压力与农产品价格[J].中国软科学,2014(7):185-192.
[17]温涛,王小华.货币政策对中国农产品价格波动的冲击效应研究[J].当代经济科学,2014(6):20-29.
[18]中国人民银行课题组.我国农产品价格上涨机制研究[J].经济学动态,2011(3):4-11.
[19]郭世勤.关于转换农产品价格形成机制的几个问题[J].经济研究,1993(12):59-65.
[20]侯成琪,龚六堂.部门价格粘性的异质性与货币政策的传导[J].世界经济,2014(7):23-44.
[21]Anand R,Prasad E S,Zhang B.What Measure of Inflation should a Developing Country Central Bank Target?[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2015,74(205):102-116.
[22]Gelos G,Ustyugova Y.Inflation Responses to Commodity Price Shocks-How and Why do Countries Differ?[J].Journal of International Money&Finance,2017(72):28-47.
[23]徐雪高.新一轮农产品价格波动周期:特征、机理及影响[J].财经研究,2008(8):110-119.
[24]周明华.中国农产品价格波动:供需因素还是货币因素?[J].财经问题研究,2014(8):125-128.
[25]李永友,丛树海.我国财政政策时滞的测算与分析---兼论我国财政货币政策在宏观调控中的相对重要性[J].统计研究,2006(10):59-63.
(1)虽然根据文献综述,农业生产资料、产出缺口、城镇居民收入和农村居民收入均对农产品价格的变动具有显著影响,但由于这些变量可能是货币政策和财政政策调控农产品价格的传导渠道,因此将这些变量排除在模型外,以避免遗漏宏观经济政策对农产品价格的解释效用。
(1)“二轮效应”表示该种农产品价格变动是否会引起成本性通货膨胀,即该种农产品是否具有货币属性,其是货币政策对该种农产品价格冲击进行调控的基础。
(2)为了满足稳健性,本文同时估计了i滞后4期、8期和16期情况,其结论基本一致。
(1)货币政策和财政政策冲击变量的选取旨在观察总量调控对农产品价格的影响。
(2)最好的数据选取应是国家财政支农支出与第一产业增加值增长速度的比值,但由于支农支出月度数据不完整,所以利用财政支出代替。
(1)根据上文将财政支出增长率和货币供给增长率通过HP滤波处理,留下循环成分,得到图2。
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