煤矿电气火灾的FTA-AHP评价模型建构及应用
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摘要
针对单一地采用事故树分析法(FTA)或者层次分析法(AHP)进行煤矿电气火灾风险评价存在评价结果不够准确的问题,将FTA法与AHP法有机结合形成FTA-AHP综合风险评价模型。首先确定事故树的顶上事件,并依次向下分解,确定中间事件和基本事件,从而编制煤矿电气火灾事故树,在此基础上,对确定的基本事件分类归纳,建构AHP评价模型。利用事故树最小割集法计算基本事件的结构重要度,引入基本事件比较因子,建立评价体系准则层和指标层比较矩阵,结合几何平均法计算各层评价指标权重,并作评价指标重要性总排序,以明确电气火灾安全管理重点和优先顺序。将该评价模型应用到登封M煤矿的电气火灾风险评价中,结果表明,基于评价模型所评价的结果与实际状况吻合良好,验证了评价模型的可行性和实用性。
The evaluation results are not comprehensive with fault tree analysis(FTA) or analytic hierarchy process(AHP) alone for risk evaluation in coal mine electrical fire, and a risk evaluation model integrating the qualitative and quantitative analyses is presented by FTA-AHP method. Firstly,FTA model of coal mine electrical fire is constructed by a multi-level deductive analysis,which includes the top event, middle events and basic cause events, and on this basis, the basic event of FTA model are classified and concluded to establish AHP model. The structure importance degree of all the basic events are calculated by the minimal cut-sets, and combining with comparison operator,comparison matrixes of the criterion layer and the index layer are constructed. At the same time,the weights of evaluation indexes were calculated precisely by the corresponding comparison matrix and the geometrical average method,and then the weights were ranked in detail so that it is quite clear to determine the key point and the priority of the safety measurements in coal mine electrical fire. The FTA-AHP model was applied to evaluate electrical fire is M coal mine of Dengfeng,and the results show that the evaluation results based on FTA-AHP model are consistent with engineering reality,and prove the feasibility and practicality of the model.
The evaluation results are not comprehensive with fault tree analysis(FTA) or analytic hierarchy process(AHP) alone for risk evaluation in coal mine electrical fire, and a risk evaluation model integrating the qualitative and quantitative analyses is presented by FTA-AHP method. Firstly,FTA model of coal mine electrical fire is constructed by a multi-level deductive analysis,which includes the top event, middle events and basic cause events, and on this basis, the basic event of FTA model are classified and concluded to establish AHP model. The structure importance degree of all the basic events are calculated by the minimal cut-sets, and combining with comparison operator,comparison matrixes of the criterion layer and the index layer are constructed. At the same time,the weights of evaluation indexes were calculated precisely by the corresponding comparison matrix and the geometrical average method,and then the weights were ranked in detail so that it is quite clear to determine the key point and the priority of the safety measurements in coal mine electrical fire. The FTA-AHP model was applied to evaluate electrical fire is M coal mine of Dengfeng,and the results show that the evaluation results based on FTA-AHP model are consistent with engineering reality,and prove the feasibility and practicality of the model.
引文
[1]杨岳.电气安全[M]. 3版.北京:机械工业出版社,2017.
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[6]易灿南,胡鸿,廖可兵,等. FTA-AHP方法研究及应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(11):167-173.
[7]林柏泉,张景林.安全系统工程[M].北京:中国劳动社会保障出版社,2010.
[8]魏春荣,李艳霞,孙建华,等.事故树结构重要度的求解方法[J].黑龙江科技学院学报,2012,22(1):84-88+92.
[2]贾磊.电气火灾故障及其模式识别分析研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2016.
[3]王君莉.煤矿电气火灾危险性评价指标权重分配算法研究[J].煤矿机械,2017,38(7):40-42.
[4]王起全.安全评价[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2015.
[5]陈盟.煤矿火灾危险等级多层次模糊综合评价[D].长沙:中南大学,2014.
[6]易灿南,胡鸿,廖可兵,等. FTA-AHP方法研究及应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(11):167-173.
[7]林柏泉,张景林.安全系统工程[M].北京:中国劳动社会保障出版社,2010.
[8]魏春荣,李艳霞,孙建华,等.事故树结构重要度的求解方法[J].黑龙江科技学院学报,2012,22(1):84-88+92.
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