基于SLEUTH模型的鄂尔多斯城市扩张模拟分析
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摘要
为准确获取城市扩张信息,预测城市扩张趋势以指导城市规划,优化城市空间结构,以鄂尔多斯市为研究区,通过解译2000、2005、2010和2015年遥感影像,获取研究区土地利用分类信息,进而采用面积数量、扩张强度指数分析城镇用地历史变化特征及扩张模式,在此基础上利用SLEUTH模型开展城市空间扩张的长时间序列模拟预测。结果表明:研究时段内城镇用地持续增长,其扩张态势大致经历了"平稳-快速急剧-低速"的发展阶段,在平稳阶段,扩张强度适中,城市呈现出显著的外延式扩张模式;在快速急剧阶段,扩张强度最大,城市在南北方向上呈星状蔓延式扩张模式,并出现了新的增长中心;低速发展阶段,扩张强度最小,以外延-内部填充式的模式进行扩张;模型预测结果发现2020—2030年城市扩张态势将呈现出各功能片区平稳对接、条带状发展的空间格局,以内部填充为主。
In order to obtain urban expansion information accurately,predict urban expansion trend to guide urban planning and optimize urban spatial structure,taken Ordos as study area,and obtain land use classification information by interpreting four years' remote sensing images,including 2000,2005,2010 and 2015.And then used area quantity index,expansion strength index to analyze the historical change characteristics and expansion model of urban land use.Finally,based on SLEUTH model to carry out the long time series simulation prediction of urban space expansion.The results show that the growth of urban land in the study period has undergone the development stage of steady-fast and rapid-low speed.In the steady stage,the expansion intensity was moderate,and the city showed a significant extension pattern.In the fast and rapid stage,the expansion intensity was the largest,the city in the north and south direction of the star-like spread pattern,and a new growth center appeared.In the low-speed development stage,the expansion intensity was the smallest,expanded with the extension-internal filling pattern.The model prediction results show that the urban expansion trend in 2020 to 2030 will present the spatial pattern of the smooth docking and strip development of each functional zone,which is based on the internal filling.
In order to obtain urban expansion information accurately,predict urban expansion trend to guide urban planning and optimize urban spatial structure,taken Ordos as study area,and obtain land use classification information by interpreting four years' remote sensing images,including 2000,2005,2010 and 2015.And then used area quantity index,expansion strength index to analyze the historical change characteristics and expansion model of urban land use.Finally,based on SLEUTH model to carry out the long time series simulation prediction of urban space expansion.The results show that the growth of urban land in the study period has undergone the development stage of steady-fast and rapid-low speed.In the steady stage,the expansion intensity was moderate,and the city showed a significant extension pattern.In the fast and rapid stage,the expansion intensity was the largest,the city in the north and south direction of the star-like spread pattern,and a new growth center appeared.In the low-speed development stage,the expansion intensity was the smallest,expanded with the extension-internal filling pattern.The model prediction results show that the urban expansion trend in 2020 to 2030 will present the spatial pattern of the smooth docking and strip development of each functional zone,which is based on the internal filling.
引文
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[9]罗瑾,刘勇,岳文泽,黄经南.山地城市空间结构演变特征:从沿河谷扩展到多中心组团式扩散[J].经济地理,2013,33(2):61-67Luo J,Liu Y,Yue W Z,Huang J N.Evolution of urban spatial structure in a mountainous city:transforming from linearexpansionalongvalleystopolycentricurban development[J].Economic Geography,2013,33(2):61-67(in Chinese)
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[11]程旭,杨海娟.城市扩张对大城市周边基本农田的影响:以西安市长安区为例[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(8):25-34Cheng X,Yang H J.Analysis of the effects of urban expansion on the basic farmland around the big city:A case study of Chang’an in Xi'an[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2017,38(8):25-34(in Chinese)
[12]蒋海波,石培基,李骞国,陈芸芬.基于SLEUTH模型的酒嘉一体化城市扩展预测[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(1):25-31Jiang H B,Shi P J,Li Q G,Chen Y F.Integral urban spatial forecast of Jiuquan city and Jiayuguan city based on SLEUTH model[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2017,31(1):25-31(in Chinese)
[13]詹云军,朱捷缘,严岩.基于元胞自动机的城市空间动态模拟[J].生态学报,2017,37(14):4864-4872Zhan Y J,Zhu J Y,Yan Y.Dynamic simulation of urban space based on the cellular automata model[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2017,37(14):4864-4872(in Chinese)
[14]朱飞鸽,胡瀚文,沈兴华,李俊祥.基于SLEUTH模型的上海城市增长预测[J].生态学杂志,2011,30(9):2107-2114Zhu F G,Hu H W,Shen X H,Li J X.SLEUTH modelbased prediction of urban growth of Shanghai[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2011,30(9):2107-2114(in Chinese)
[15]高金龙,陈江龙,袁丰,魏也华,陈雯.南京市区建设用地扩张模式、功能演化与机理[J].地理研究,2014,33(10):1892-1907Gao J L,Chen J L,Yuan F,Wei Y H,Chen W.Patterns,functions and underlying mechanisms of urban land expansion in Nanjing[J].Geographical Research,2014,33(10):1892-1907(in Chinese)
[16]李明杰,钱乐祥,吴志峰,崔海山,侯西勇.广州市海珠区高密度城区扩展SLEUTH模型模拟[J].地理学报,2010,65(10):1163-1172Li M J,Qian L X,Wu Z F,Cui H S,Hou X Y.The SLEUTH model simulation of high density urban sprawl in Haizhu district of Guangzhou city[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(10):1163-1172(in Chinese)
[17]阿娜力斯,王敏,张裕凤.康巴什新区城市产业发展现状与对策研究[J].中国土地科学,2017,31(10):53-58A N L S,Wang M,Zhang Y F.Industrial development status quo and countermeasure research in Kangbashi new district[J].China Land Sciences,2017,31(10):53-58(in Chinese)
[18] Clarke K C,Hoppen S,Gaydos L A.Self-modifying cellular automaton model of historical urbanization in the San Francisco Bay area[J].Environment and Planning,1997,24:247-261
[19]吴春华,胡远满,黄培泉.基于SLEUTH模型的阜新市城市扩展模拟[J].应用生态学报,2014,25(9):2671-2676Wu C H,Hu Y M,Huang P Q.Simulation of urban expansion based on SLEUTH model in Fuxin city,Northeast China[J].Journal of Applied Ecology,2014,25(9):2671-2676(in Chinese)
[20]米文宝,仲俊涛,米楠.康巴什新区城市发展的新思路:建设“活力型草原生态城市”[C]//草原、城市、文化:康巴什论坛论文集,2017:182-194Mi W B,Zhong J T,Mi N.Newideas of urban development in Kangbashi:building“dynamic grassland eco-city”[C].In:Grassland,City,Culture:Kangbashi Forum Proceedings,2017:182-194(in Chinese)
[2]谭雪兰,欧阳巧玲,江喆,刘卓,谭洁,周国华.基于RS/GIS的长沙市城市空间扩展及影响因素[J].经济地理,2017,37(3):81-85Tan X L,Ouyang Q L,Jiang Z,Liu Z,Tan J,Zhou G H.Urban spatial expansion and its influence factors based on RS/GIS:a case study in Changsha[J].Economic Geography,2017,37(3):81-85(in Chinese)
[3]王婷婷,王运动,杨强,张洁.1988—2014年莆田市城市扩展及其驱动力分析[J].遥感信息,2015,30(6):111-115Wang T T,Wang Y D,Yang Q,Zhang J.Urban expansion and its driving force for Putian city from 1988to 2014[J].Remote Sensing Information,2015,30(6):111-115(in Chinese)
[4]李松,罗绪强.基于RS的多数据源的700多年来贵阳城市扩展时空特征研究[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(10):1734-1745Li S,Luo X Q.Study on spatiotemporal expansion feature of urban based on multisource data using remote sensing technique in Guiyang city in the latest 700years[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2014,29(10):1734-1745(in Chinese)
[5]王灿,王继富,任春颖,王宗明,姚云长.1970s—2015年长春市城市扩张过程时空动态分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(3):21-25Wang C,Wang J F,Ren C Y,Wang Z M,Yao Y C.Spatialtemporal dynamics of urban expansion in Changchun city during 1970s-2015[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2017,31(3):21-25(in Chinese)
[6]姚尧,李江风,童陆亿,杨媛媛.中部3省城市建设用地功能时空演化特征[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(10):1564-1574Yao Y,Li J F,Tong L Y,Yang Y Y.Spatiotemporal conversions of urban built-up land function in three provinces from central China[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2017,26(10):1564-1574(in Chinese)
[7]曾馨漫,刘慧,刘卫东.京津冀城市群城市用地扩张的空间特征及俱乐部收敛分析[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(12):2045-2056Zeng X M,Liu H,Liu W D.Spatial pattern and club convergence analysis of urban expansion in Beijing-TianjinHebeiurbanagglomeration[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(12):2045-2056(in Chinese)
[8]童陆亿,胡守庚.中国主要城市建设用地扩张特征[J].资源科学,2016,38(1):50-61Tong L Y,Hu S G.Characterizations of urban sprawl in major Chinese cities[J].Resources Science,2016,38(1):50-61(in Chinese)
[9]罗瑾,刘勇,岳文泽,黄经南.山地城市空间结构演变特征:从沿河谷扩展到多中心组团式扩散[J].经济地理,2013,33(2):61-67Luo J,Liu Y,Yue W Z,Huang J N.Evolution of urban spatial structure in a mountainous city:transforming from linearexpansionalongvalleystopolycentricurban development[J].Economic Geography,2013,33(2):61-67(in Chinese)
[10]冯浩城,杨青山.基于遥感数据的建三江垦区城镇用地扩张时空特征及驱动力分析[J].地理科学,2017,37(8):1178-1185Feng H C,Yang Q S.Spatio-temporal characteristics of urban expansion and its driving forces based remote sensing datainJiansanjiangreclamationarea[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(8):1178-1185(in Chinese)
[11]程旭,杨海娟.城市扩张对大城市周边基本农田的影响:以西安市长安区为例[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(8):25-34Cheng X,Yang H J.Analysis of the effects of urban expansion on the basic farmland around the big city:A case study of Chang’an in Xi'an[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2017,38(8):25-34(in Chinese)
[12]蒋海波,石培基,李骞国,陈芸芬.基于SLEUTH模型的酒嘉一体化城市扩展预测[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(1):25-31Jiang H B,Shi P J,Li Q G,Chen Y F.Integral urban spatial forecast of Jiuquan city and Jiayuguan city based on SLEUTH model[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2017,31(1):25-31(in Chinese)
[13]詹云军,朱捷缘,严岩.基于元胞自动机的城市空间动态模拟[J].生态学报,2017,37(14):4864-4872Zhan Y J,Zhu J Y,Yan Y.Dynamic simulation of urban space based on the cellular automata model[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2017,37(14):4864-4872(in Chinese)
[14]朱飞鸽,胡瀚文,沈兴华,李俊祥.基于SLEUTH模型的上海城市增长预测[J].生态学杂志,2011,30(9):2107-2114Zhu F G,Hu H W,Shen X H,Li J X.SLEUTH modelbased prediction of urban growth of Shanghai[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2011,30(9):2107-2114(in Chinese)
[15]高金龙,陈江龙,袁丰,魏也华,陈雯.南京市区建设用地扩张模式、功能演化与机理[J].地理研究,2014,33(10):1892-1907Gao J L,Chen J L,Yuan F,Wei Y H,Chen W.Patterns,functions and underlying mechanisms of urban land expansion in Nanjing[J].Geographical Research,2014,33(10):1892-1907(in Chinese)
[16]李明杰,钱乐祥,吴志峰,崔海山,侯西勇.广州市海珠区高密度城区扩展SLEUTH模型模拟[J].地理学报,2010,65(10):1163-1172Li M J,Qian L X,Wu Z F,Cui H S,Hou X Y.The SLEUTH model simulation of high density urban sprawl in Haizhu district of Guangzhou city[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(10):1163-1172(in Chinese)
[17]阿娜力斯,王敏,张裕凤.康巴什新区城市产业发展现状与对策研究[J].中国土地科学,2017,31(10):53-58A N L S,Wang M,Zhang Y F.Industrial development status quo and countermeasure research in Kangbashi new district[J].China Land Sciences,2017,31(10):53-58(in Chinese)
[18] Clarke K C,Hoppen S,Gaydos L A.Self-modifying cellular automaton model of historical urbanization in the San Francisco Bay area[J].Environment and Planning,1997,24:247-261
[19]吴春华,胡远满,黄培泉.基于SLEUTH模型的阜新市城市扩展模拟[J].应用生态学报,2014,25(9):2671-2676Wu C H,Hu Y M,Huang P Q.Simulation of urban expansion based on SLEUTH model in Fuxin city,Northeast China[J].Journal of Applied Ecology,2014,25(9):2671-2676(in Chinese)
[20]米文宝,仲俊涛,米楠.康巴什新区城市发展的新思路:建设“活力型草原生态城市”[C]//草原、城市、文化:康巴什论坛论文集,2017:182-194Mi W B,Zhong J T,Mi N.Newideas of urban development in Kangbashi:building“dynamic grassland eco-city”[C].In:Grassland,City,Culture:Kangbashi Forum Proceedings,2017:182-194(in Chinese)