地方竞争、产能过剩与财政可持续性
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摘要
地方竞争所引致的产能过剩对财政可持续性产生长期深远的影响。在简单理论分析基础上,采用1998—2015年省级面板数据,考察地方竞争、产能过剩与财政可持续性之间的内在经济逻辑。研究发现:地方政府以追逐GDP为核心的税收竞争行为,以及相伴而生的产能过剩改善了财政可持续性,这一结论在排除了各种可能机制后依然稳健;进一步研究发现,地方政府对不同税种收入的竞争行为呈现出显著差异,地方政府对增值税、企业所得税收入的竞争提升了财政可持续性,并且强化了产能过剩对财政可持续性的正向影响;但营业税收入竞争对财政可持续性不具有显著性影响。长期来看,地方竞争、产能过剩对财政可持续性的正向影响快速减弱。
Overcapacity caused by local competition has long-term and profound effect on fiscal sustainability. Based on the simple theoretical analysis,the paper used provincial panel data from 1998 to 2015 to examine the inherent economic logic between local competition,overcapacity,and fiscal sustainability. It was found that local government's pursuit of GDP-based tax competition and the accompanying overcapacity have improved fiscal sustainability. The conclusion remained robust after excluding various possible mechanisms. Further research found that local governments showed significant difference in the competitive behavior of different tax types. Local government competition for value-added tax and corporate income tax revenue enhanced fiscal sustainability,and strengthened the positive impact of overcapacity on fiscal sustainability. However,business tax revenue competition did not have a significant impact on finance sustainability. In the long run,the positive impact of local competition and overcapacity on fiscal sustainability is rapidly weakening.
Overcapacity caused by local competition has long-term and profound effect on fiscal sustainability. Based on the simple theoretical analysis,the paper used provincial panel data from 1998 to 2015 to examine the inherent economic logic between local competition,overcapacity,and fiscal sustainability. It was found that local government's pursuit of GDP-based tax competition and the accompanying overcapacity have improved fiscal sustainability. The conclusion remained robust after excluding various possible mechanisms. Further research found that local governments showed significant difference in the competitive behavior of different tax types. Local government competition for value-added tax and corporate income tax revenue enhanced fiscal sustainability,and strengthened the positive impact of overcapacity on fiscal sustainability. However,business tax revenue competition did not have a significant impact on finance sustainability. In the long run,the positive impact of local competition and overcapacity on fiscal sustainability is rapidly weakening.
引文
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[24]张龙鹏,蒋为.政企关系是否影响了中国制造业企业的产能利用率?[J].产业经济研究,2015(6):82-90.
[25]张少华,蒋伟杰.能源效率测度方法:演变、争议与未来[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016(7):3-24.
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[27]江飞涛,耿强,吕大国,等.地区竞争、体制扭曲与产能过剩的形成机理[J].中国工业经济,2012(6):44-56.
[28]席鹏辉,梁若冰,谢贞发,等.财政压力、产能过剩与供给侧改革[J].经济研究,2017(9):86-102.
[29]干春晖,邹俊,王健.地方官员任期、企业资源获取与产能过剩[J].中国工业经济,2015(3):44-56.
[30]陶然,陆曦,苏福兵,等.地区竞争格局演变下的中国转轨:财政激励和发展模式反思[J].经济研究,2009(7):21-33.
[31]白重恩,杜颖娟,陶志刚,等.地方保护主义及产业地区集中度的决定因素和变动趋势[J].经济研究,2004(4):29-40.
[32]GIAMMARIOLI N,NICKEL C,ROTHER P,et al.Assessing fiscal soundness:theory and practice[R].Occasional paper,2007.
[33]王蓓,崔治文.有效税率、投资与经济增长:来自中国数据的经验实证[J].管理评论,2012(7):3-12+23.
[34]褚玉春,刘建平.债务融资对制造业经营绩效的影响效应研究---基于广义矩法估计的动态面板数据分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2009(9):79-91.
[35]周黎安.中国地方官员的晋升锦标赛模式研究[J].经济研究,2007(7):36-50.
[2]BOHN H.The behavior of US public debt and deficits[J].The quarterly journal of economics,1998,113(3):949-963.
[3]GREINER A,KAUERMANN G.Sustainability of US public debt:estimating smoothing spline regressions[J].Economic modelling,2007,24(2):350-364.
[4]BAJO-RUBIO O,DIAZ-ROLDAN C,ESTEVE V.On the sustainability of government deficits:some long-term evidence for Spain,1850-2000[J].Journal of applied economics,2010,13(2):263-281.
[5]BOM P R D,LIGTHART J E.Public infrastructure investment,output dynamics,and balanced budget fiscal rules[J].Journal of economic dynamics and control,2014,40:334-354.
[6]GONG G,GREINER A,SEMMLER W.Growth effects of fiscal policy and debt sustainability in the EU[J].Empirica,2001,28(1):3-19.
[7]徐淑丹.新常态下中国政府投资结构之研判:兼论财政政策的效力与可持续性[J].经济评论,2016(1):39-52.
[8]邓晓兰,黄显林.公共债务货币化与财政可持续性的互动影响关系研究---基于财政与货币政策协调配合的视角[J].经济科学,2014(2):5-18.
[9]龚锋,余锦亮.人口老龄化、税收负担与财政可持续性[J].经济研究,2015(8):16-30.
[10]杨晓丽,许垒.中国式分权下地方政府FDI税收竞争的策略性及其经济增长效应[J].经济评论,2011(3):59-68.
[11]杨龙见,尹恒.中国县级政府税收竞争研究[J].统计研究,2014(6):42-49.
[12]王小龙,方金金.财政“省直管县”改革与基层政府税收竞争[J].经济研究,2015(11):79-93+176.
[13]付文林,耿强.税收竞争、经济集聚与地区投资行为[J].经济学(季刊),2011(4):1329-1348.
[14]范子英,田彬彬.税收竞争、税收执法与企业避税[J].经济研究,2013(9):99-111.
[15]CASSELS J M.Excess capacity and monopolistic competition[J].The quarterly journal of economics,1937,51(3):426-443.
[16]MORRISON C J.Primal and dual capacity utilization:an application to productivity measurement in the U.S.automobile industry[J].Journal of business&economic statistics,1985,3(4):312-324.
[17]HOGAN W P.Some new results in the measurement of capacity utilization[J].American economic review,1969,59(1):183-184.
[18]GAROFALO G A,MALHOTRA D M.Regional measures of capacity utilization in the 1980s[J].Review of economics and statistics,1997,79(3):415-421.
[19]SEGERSON K,SQUIRES D.On the measurement of economic capacity utilization for multi-product industries[J].Journal of econometrics,1990,44(3):347-361.
[20]KIRKLEY J,PAUL C J M,SQUIRES D.Capacity and capacity utilization in common-pool resource industries[J].Environmental and resource economics,2002,22(1/2):71-97.
[21]孙巍,李何,王文成.产能利用与固定资产投资关系的面板数据协整研究---基于制造业28个行业样本[J].经济管理,2009(3):38-43.
[22]韩国高,高铁梅,王立国,等.中国制造业产能过剩的测度、波动及成因研究[J].经济研究,2011(12):18-31.
[23]韩国高,胡文明.要素价格扭曲如何影响了我国工业产能过剩?---基于省际面板数据的实证研究[J].产业经济研究,2017(2):49-61.
[24]张龙鹏,蒋为.政企关系是否影响了中国制造业企业的产能利用率?[J].产业经济研究,2015(6):82-90.
[25]张少华,蒋伟杰.能源效率测度方法:演变、争议与未来[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016(7):3-24.
[26]王文甫,明娟,岳超云.企业规模、地方政府干预与产能过剩[J].管理世界,2014(10):17-36+46.
[27]江飞涛,耿强,吕大国,等.地区竞争、体制扭曲与产能过剩的形成机理[J].中国工业经济,2012(6):44-56.
[28]席鹏辉,梁若冰,谢贞发,等.财政压力、产能过剩与供给侧改革[J].经济研究,2017(9):86-102.
[29]干春晖,邹俊,王健.地方官员任期、企业资源获取与产能过剩[J].中国工业经济,2015(3):44-56.
[30]陶然,陆曦,苏福兵,等.地区竞争格局演变下的中国转轨:财政激励和发展模式反思[J].经济研究,2009(7):21-33.
[31]白重恩,杜颖娟,陶志刚,等.地方保护主义及产业地区集中度的决定因素和变动趋势[J].经济研究,2004(4):29-40.
[32]GIAMMARIOLI N,NICKEL C,ROTHER P,et al.Assessing fiscal soundness:theory and practice[R].Occasional paper,2007.
[33]王蓓,崔治文.有效税率、投资与经济增长:来自中国数据的经验实证[J].管理评论,2012(7):3-12+23.
[34]褚玉春,刘建平.债务融资对制造业经营绩效的影响效应研究---基于广义矩法估计的动态面板数据分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2009(9):79-91.
[35]周黎安.中国地方官员的晋升锦标赛模式研究[J].经济研究,2007(7):36-50.