1997-2015年中国种植业碳排放时空特征及与农业发展的关系
|
摘要
基于我国1997~2015年种植业生产过程中农用物资(化肥、农药、农用塑料、灌溉和农业机械)投入所引起的碳排放,揭示我国种植业自1997~2015年碳排放时空分布规律的特征,并分析种植业碳排放与农业经济增长之间的关系。结果表明:2015年我国种植业碳排放总量为9671万t,较1997年增加了51%,而种植业碳排放增速呈现出明显的"下降-上升-下降"的变化特征;不同碳排放源中,化肥使用是中国种植业碳排放的主要来源,占排放总量的56%;碳排放增速具有显著的地域性,西部和东北地区碳排放增速高于东部、中部地区;自1997~2015年中国单位GDP碳排放比逐渐降低,并且地区之间差异减小;目前中国种植业碳排放与农业GDP符合EKC曲线:在东部、中部和东北地区种植业碳排放与农业GDP处于脱钩状态,而西部地区种植业碳排放与农业GDP仍处于耦合状态。我国种植业碳排放基本进入低碳发展的模式,但地区之间碳排放差异较大。
The study analyzed plant industry carbon emission and the relationship between agricultural development in China from 1997 ~ 2015 in order to provide scientific basis for development low carbon agriculture. Based on the statistic data of agricultural goods input of plant industry in China during the period from 1997 to 2015,the characteristics spatiotemporal distribution of carbon emissions were analyzed in this study. Based on the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of carbon emissions,the relationship between carbon emissions and agricultural development were explored in different regions of China. Total carbon emission in plant industry in 2015 were 9,671 million tons,that increased by 51% compared to 1997. the annual increase rate of carbon emissions from plant industry displayed an obvious‘down-up-down 'phase-change characteristic,decreasing during1998 ~ 2002,increasing during 2003 ~ 2004,and decreasing again during 2005 ~ 2015. The utilization of fertilizers was the main carbon emission sources,which accounted for 56% of total carbon emissions in the plant industry; the annual increase rate of carbon emissions in different regions had different characteristics. Carbon emissions will increase with the time in west and north-east regions; there were different tendencies in middle and east regions. Carbon emissions per unit of GDP decreased,and the differences of carbon emissions per unit of GDP among different regions also decreased from 1997 to 2015. Carbon emissions from plant industry and agricultural GDP fit with EKC curve at present in China. It was in the decoupling state between plant industry carbon emissions and agricultural GDP in East,Middle and North-East regions. However,it was in the coupling state in West region. The results basically reflected the general characteristics of plant industry carbon emission and the relationship with agricultural development.
The study analyzed plant industry carbon emission and the relationship between agricultural development in China from 1997 ~ 2015 in order to provide scientific basis for development low carbon agriculture. Based on the statistic data of agricultural goods input of plant industry in China during the period from 1997 to 2015,the characteristics spatiotemporal distribution of carbon emissions were analyzed in this study. Based on the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of carbon emissions,the relationship between carbon emissions and agricultural development were explored in different regions of China. Total carbon emission in plant industry in 2015 were 9,671 million tons,that increased by 51% compared to 1997. the annual increase rate of carbon emissions from plant industry displayed an obvious‘down-up-down 'phase-change characteristic,decreasing during1998 ~ 2002,increasing during 2003 ~ 2004,and decreasing again during 2005 ~ 2015. The utilization of fertilizers was the main carbon emission sources,which accounted for 56% of total carbon emissions in the plant industry; the annual increase rate of carbon emissions in different regions had different characteristics. Carbon emissions will increase with the time in west and north-east regions; there were different tendencies in middle and east regions. Carbon emissions per unit of GDP decreased,and the differences of carbon emissions per unit of GDP among different regions also decreased from 1997 to 2015. Carbon emissions from plant industry and agricultural GDP fit with EKC curve at present in China. It was in the decoupling state between plant industry carbon emissions and agricultural GDP in East,Middle and North-East regions. However,it was in the coupling state in West region. The results basically reflected the general characteristics of plant industry carbon emission and the relationship with agricultural development.
引文
[1]Cole C V,Duxbury J,Freney J,et al. Global estimates of potential mitigation of greenhouse gas emission by agriculture[J]. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystem,1997,49(1-3):221-228.
[2]段华平,张悦,赵建波,等.中国农田生态系统的碳足迹分析[J].水土保持学报,2011,25(5):203-208.
[3]田云,张俊彪.中国农业碳排放研究回顾、评述与展望[J].华中农业大学学报:社会科学版,2014,33(2):23-27.
[4]Yao P W,Li X S,Nan W G,et al. Carbon dioxide fluxes in soil profiles as affected by maize phenology and nitrogen fertilization in the semiarid Loess Plateau[J]. Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment,2017,236:120-133.
[5]Liu J L,Zhu L,Luo S S,et al. Response of nitrous oxide emission to soil mulching and nitrogen fertilization in semi-arid farmland[J]. Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment,2014,188:20-28.
[6]王宝义,张卫国.中国农业生态效率测度及时空差异研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(6):11-19.
[7]陈昌洪.低碳农业标准化理论分析与发展对策[J].西北农林科技大学学报:社会科学版,2016,16(1):52-58.
[8]Mosier A R,Halvorson A D,Reule C A,et al. Net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity in irrigated cropping systems in Northeastern Colorado[J]. Journal of Environmental Quality,2006,35(4):1584-1598.
[9]王青,郑红勇,聂桢祯.低碳农业理论分析与中国低碳农业发展思路[J].西北农林科技大学学报:社会科学版,2010,12(3):1-7.
[10]康苗苗,肖玲,余菲,等.陕西省农田生态系统碳源/汇研究[J].地球环境学报,2011,2(5):630-636.
[11]张婷,蔡海生,张学玲.基于碳足迹的江西省农田生态系统碳源/汇时空差异[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(6):767-773.
[12]王静,冯永忠,杨改河,等.山西农田生态系统碳源/汇时空差异分析[J].西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版,2010,38(1):195-200.
[13]何婷婷,张丽琼.安徽省农业碳排放现状及低碳农业发展路径探讨[J].安徽农业大学学报:社会科学版,2012,21(5):30-34.
[14]戴小文,漆雁斌,唐宏. 1990-2010年中国农业隐含碳排放及其驱动力因素研究[J].资源科学,2015,37(8):1668-1676.
[15]文清,田云,王雅鹏.中国农业碳排放省域差异与驱动机理研究-基于30个省(市、区)1993-2012年的面板数据分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(11):1-6.
[16]李二玲,朱纪广,李小建. 2008年中国种植业地理集聚与专业化格局[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(8):1063-1070.
[17]董明涛.我国农业碳排放与产业结构的关联研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(10):7-12.
[18]王宝义,张卫国.中国农业生态效率测定及时空差异研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(6):11-19.
[19]李波,张俊飚,李海鹏.中国农业碳排放与经济发展的实证研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(12):8-13.
[20]马涛.上海农业碳源碳汇现状评估及增加碳汇潜力分析[J].可持续发展,2011,28(5):38-41.
[21]West T O,Marl G A. Synthesis of carbon sequestration,carbon emissions,and net carbon flux in agriculture:comparing tillage practices in the United States[J]. Agriculture Ecosystems&Environment,2002,91(1-3):217-232.
[22]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:中国气象出版社,2013:66-67.
[23]刘宇峰,原志华,郭玲霞,等.中国农作物生产碳足迹及其空间分布特征[J].应用生态学报,2017,28(8):2577-2587.
[24]张勇,李式昭,吴振录,等. CIMMYT种质对四川、云南、甘肃和新疆春性小麦产量遗传增益的贡献[J].作物学报,2011,37(10):1752-1762.
[25]Holtz-Eakin D,Selden T M. Stoking the fires? CO2emissions and economic growth[J]. Journal of Public Economics,1995,57(1):85-101.
[26]颜廷武,田云,张俊飚,等.中国农业碳排放拐点变动及时空分异研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(11):1-8.
[2]段华平,张悦,赵建波,等.中国农田生态系统的碳足迹分析[J].水土保持学报,2011,25(5):203-208.
[3]田云,张俊彪.中国农业碳排放研究回顾、评述与展望[J].华中农业大学学报:社会科学版,2014,33(2):23-27.
[4]Yao P W,Li X S,Nan W G,et al. Carbon dioxide fluxes in soil profiles as affected by maize phenology and nitrogen fertilization in the semiarid Loess Plateau[J]. Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment,2017,236:120-133.
[5]Liu J L,Zhu L,Luo S S,et al. Response of nitrous oxide emission to soil mulching and nitrogen fertilization in semi-arid farmland[J]. Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment,2014,188:20-28.
[6]王宝义,张卫国.中国农业生态效率测度及时空差异研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(6):11-19.
[7]陈昌洪.低碳农业标准化理论分析与发展对策[J].西北农林科技大学学报:社会科学版,2016,16(1):52-58.
[8]Mosier A R,Halvorson A D,Reule C A,et al. Net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity in irrigated cropping systems in Northeastern Colorado[J]. Journal of Environmental Quality,2006,35(4):1584-1598.
[9]王青,郑红勇,聂桢祯.低碳农业理论分析与中国低碳农业发展思路[J].西北农林科技大学学报:社会科学版,2010,12(3):1-7.
[10]康苗苗,肖玲,余菲,等.陕西省农田生态系统碳源/汇研究[J].地球环境学报,2011,2(5):630-636.
[11]张婷,蔡海生,张学玲.基于碳足迹的江西省农田生态系统碳源/汇时空差异[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(6):767-773.
[12]王静,冯永忠,杨改河,等.山西农田生态系统碳源/汇时空差异分析[J].西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版,2010,38(1):195-200.
[13]何婷婷,张丽琼.安徽省农业碳排放现状及低碳农业发展路径探讨[J].安徽农业大学学报:社会科学版,2012,21(5):30-34.
[14]戴小文,漆雁斌,唐宏. 1990-2010年中国农业隐含碳排放及其驱动力因素研究[J].资源科学,2015,37(8):1668-1676.
[15]文清,田云,王雅鹏.中国农业碳排放省域差异与驱动机理研究-基于30个省(市、区)1993-2012年的面板数据分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(11):1-6.
[16]李二玲,朱纪广,李小建. 2008年中国种植业地理集聚与专业化格局[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(8):1063-1070.
[17]董明涛.我国农业碳排放与产业结构的关联研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(10):7-12.
[18]王宝义,张卫国.中国农业生态效率测定及时空差异研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(6):11-19.
[19]李波,张俊飚,李海鹏.中国农业碳排放与经济发展的实证研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(12):8-13.
[20]马涛.上海农业碳源碳汇现状评估及增加碳汇潜力分析[J].可持续发展,2011,28(5):38-41.
[21]West T O,Marl G A. Synthesis of carbon sequestration,carbon emissions,and net carbon flux in agriculture:comparing tillage practices in the United States[J]. Agriculture Ecosystems&Environment,2002,91(1-3):217-232.
[22]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:中国气象出版社,2013:66-67.
[23]刘宇峰,原志华,郭玲霞,等.中国农作物生产碳足迹及其空间分布特征[J].应用生态学报,2017,28(8):2577-2587.
[24]张勇,李式昭,吴振录,等. CIMMYT种质对四川、云南、甘肃和新疆春性小麦产量遗传增益的贡献[J].作物学报,2011,37(10):1752-1762.
[25]Holtz-Eakin D,Selden T M. Stoking the fires? CO2emissions and economic growth[J]. Journal of Public Economics,1995,57(1):85-101.
[26]颜廷武,田云,张俊飚,等.中国农业碳排放拐点变动及时空分异研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(11):1-8.