“一带一路”沿线地区隐含碳流动研究
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摘要
随着全球各区域的连通性不断增强,碳流动以及碳泄漏在全球碳减排过程中扮演着越来越重要的角色。伴随全球产业跨境转移的过程,发达国家的高碳行业逐渐转移到发展中国家,并从这些国家进口成品用于自身最终消费。基于多区域投入产出分析,本文测算了"一带一路"沿线地区隐含碳流动,分析了生产碳及消费碳强度在全球的空间分布,并以此为基础探讨了"一带一路"沿线地区的生产者及消费者责任。结果显示,"一带一路"沿线地区的生产碳强度大都高于消费碳强度,且两者的差值大多高于"一带一路"区域外发达地区。全球95%以上的隐含碳净流出发生在"一带一路"沿线地区,美国、西欧等发达国家/地区的消费所引发的"一带一路"沿线主要区域直接碳排放占比约为30%。考虑到跨国贸易中的隐含碳排放,"一带一路"沿线地区整体承受了较大的碳排放压力。从消费者责任着手衡量各国家/地区在全球气候变化中的碳排放责任,并以包容性全球化为基础推进"一带一路"气候治理体系构建,可为长期难以达成协议的全球气候治理问题提供有效思路。
Due to the high levels of connectivity among countries, carbon flows and leakage play increasingly significant roles in global carbon reduction. In concert with global industrial shifts, high-carbon activities in developed countries have gradually transitioned to developing ones, alongside high imports from the latter for the other countries' final consumption. This work aims to illustrate the transfer flows of embodied carbon emissions among countries and regions whilst quantifying the spatial distribution of production-and consumption-based intensities and the related responsibilities of the Belt and Road regions based on multi-regional input-output modeling. The results of this work reveal that production-based carbon intensities of Belt and Road regions are significantly higher than those of their consumption-based ones,and that differences between these two intensities are much larger than in developed countries.Up to 95% of the net embodied carbon exports are derived from the Belt and Road regions, and about 30% of the consumption-based emissions are from developed countries including the United States and Europe outside the Belt and Road area. In consideration of the cross-border international trade, the Belt and Road regions bear high-level pressure of consumption-based carbon emissions. To provide effective approaches for the mitigation of global climate change,it is necessary to evaluate the environmental responsibilities of the Belt and Road regions from the perspective of consumption and build an inclusive global climate governance system towards regional cooperation and development.
Due to the high levels of connectivity among countries, carbon flows and leakage play increasingly significant roles in global carbon reduction. In concert with global industrial shifts, high-carbon activities in developed countries have gradually transitioned to developing ones, alongside high imports from the latter for the other countries' final consumption. This work aims to illustrate the transfer flows of embodied carbon emissions among countries and regions whilst quantifying the spatial distribution of production-and consumption-based intensities and the related responsibilities of the Belt and Road regions based on multi-regional input-output modeling. The results of this work reveal that production-based carbon intensities of Belt and Road regions are significantly higher than those of their consumption-based ones,and that differences between these two intensities are much larger than in developed countries.Up to 95% of the net embodied carbon exports are derived from the Belt and Road regions, and about 30% of the consumption-based emissions are from developed countries including the United States and Europe outside the Belt and Road area. In consideration of the cross-border international trade, the Belt and Road regions bear high-level pressure of consumption-based carbon emissions. To provide effective approaches for the mitigation of global climate change,it is necessary to evaluate the environmental responsibilities of the Belt and Road regions from the perspective of consumption and build an inclusive global climate governance system towards regional cooperation and development.
引文
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[30] Liu Weidong. Scientific understanding of the Belt and Road Initiative of China and related research themes. Progress in Geography, 2015, 34(5):538-544.[刘卫东.“一带一路”战略的科学内涵与科学问题.地理科学进展, 2015, 34(5):538-544.]
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[33] National Information Center."Belt and Road"Big Data Report. Beijing:The Commercial Press, 2017.[国家信息中心.“一带一路”大数据报告.北京:商务印书馆, 2017.]
[34] Zou Jialing, Liu Chunla, Yin Guoqing, et al. Spatial patterns and economic effects of China's trade with countries along the Belt and Road. Progress in Geography, 2015, 34(5):598-605.[邹嘉龄,刘春腊,尹国庆,等.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易格局及其经济贡献.地理科学进展, 2015, 34(5):598-605.]
[35] Dong S, Li Z, Li Y, et al. Resources, environment and economic patterns and key scientific issues of the Silk Road Economic Belt. American Journal of Political Science, 2015, 47(3):389-402.
[36] Schwerhoff G, Sy M. Financing renewable energy in Africa:Key challenge of the sustainable development goals.Renewable&Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2017, 75:393-401.
[37] Wang C, Wang F. China can lead on climate change. Science, 2017, 357(6353):764.
[38] Han M Y, Yao Q H, Liu W D, et al. Tracking embodied carbon flows in the Belt and Road regions. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(9):1263-1274.
[39] World Bank. World Bank Country and Lending Groups:https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups.
[40] Liu Weidong, Tian Jinchen, Ou Xiaoli, et al. The Belt and Road stratege research. Beijing:The Commercial Press, 2017.[刘卫东,田锦尘,欧晓理,等.“一带一路”战略研究.北京:商务印书馆, 2017.]
[41] World Bank. World Development Indicators, 2014:http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=worlddevelopment-indicators.
[42] Lin B, Sun C. Evaluating carbon dioxide emissions in international trade of China. Energy Policy, 2010, 38(1):613-621.
[43] Liu H, Xi Y, Guo J, et al. Energy embodied in the international trade of China:An energy input-output analysis. Energy Policy, 2010, 38(8):3957-3964.
[44] Wiedmann T, Lenzen M, Turner K, et al. Examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities(Part 2):Review of input-output models for the assessment of environmental impacts embodied in trade. Ecological Economics, 2007, 61(1):15-26.
[45] Han M Y, Dunford M, Chen G Q, et al. Global water transfers embodied in Mainland China's foreign trade:Productionand consumption-based perspectives. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2017, 161:188-199.
[46] Chen G Q, Han M Y. Global supply chain of arable land use:Production-based and consumption-based trade imbalance.Land Use Policy, 2015, 49:118-130.
[47] Han M Y, Chen G Q, Li Y L. Global water transfers embodied in international trade:Tracking imbalanced and inefficient flows. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018, 184:50-64.
[48] Zhu Y, Tian Z, Liu J, et al. Low carbon energy systems in China:Visioning regional cooperation through the Belt and Road. Singapore:Springer, 2016.
[49] Zhang Z, Zhao Y, Su B, et al. Embodied carbon in China's foreign trade:An online SCI-E and SSCI based literature review. Renewable&Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2017, 68:492-510.
[2] Copeland B R, Taylor M S. Trade, growth, and the environment. Journal of Economic Literature, 2004, 42(1):7-71.
[3] Grossman G M, Krueger A B. Environmental impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 1991, 8(2):223-250.
[4] Copeland B R, Taylor M S. North-South trade and the environment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1994, 109(3):755-787.
[5] Chichilnisky G. North-South trade and the global environment. American Economic Review, 1994, 84(4):851-874.
[6] Antweiler W, Copeland B R, Taylor M S. Is free trade good for the environment? Nber Working Papers, 1998, 91(4):877-908.
[7] Wiedmann T, Minx J. A definition of'carbon footprint'. Ecological Economics Research Trends, 2008, 1:1-11.
[8] Peters G P, Hertwich E G. CO2embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy.Environmental Science&Technology, 2008, 42(5):1401-1407.
[9] Qi Ye, Li Huimin, Xu Ming. Accounting embodied carbon in import and export in China. China Population Resources and Environment, 2008, 18(3):8-13.[齐晔,李惠民,徐明.中国进出口贸易中的隐含碳估算.中国人口·资源与环境,2008, 18(3):8-13.]
[10] Li Y L, Chen B, Han M Y, et al. Tracking carbon transfers embodied in Chinese municipalities'domestic and foreign trade. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018, 192:950-960.
[11] Guo S, Shen G, Chen Z, et al. Embodied cultivated land use in China 1987-2007. Ecological Indicators, 2014, 47:198-209.
[12] An Qier, Wang Haizhong, Wang Lang. Analysis of the embodied energy flow network between Chinese industries.Journal of Systems Engineering, 2014, 29(6):754-762.[安琪儿,安海忠,王朗.中国产业间隐含能源流动网络分析.系统工程学报, 2014, 29(6):754-762.]
[13] Lenzen M, Moran D, Bhaduri A, et al. International trade of scarce water. Ecological Economics, 2013, 94:78-85.
[14] Lenzen M, Moran D, Kanemoto K, et al. International trade drives biodiversity threats in developing nations. Nature,2012, 486:109-112.
[15] Liu Z, Guan D, Wei W, et al. Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China. Nature, 2015, 524:335-338.
[16] Zhang N, Liu Z, Zheng X, et al. Carbon footprint of China's Belt and Road. Science, 2017, 357(6356):1107.
[17] Davis S J, Caldeira K. Consumption-based accounting of CO2emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2010, 107(12):5687-5692.
[18] Li Fangyi, Liu Weidong, Tang Zhipeng. Study on inter-regional transfer of embodied pollution in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2013, 68(6):791-801.[李方一,刘卫东,唐志鹏.中国区域间隐含污染转移研究.地理学报,2013, 68(6):791-801.]
[19] Liu W D, Li X, Liu H, et al. Estimating inter-regional trade flows in China:A sector-specific statistical model. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(10):1247-1263.
[20] Han M Y, Chen G Q. Global arable land transfers embodied in Mainland China's foreign trade. Land Use Policy, 2018,70:521-534.
[21] Huang Baorong, Wang Yi, Zhang Huizhi, et al. Energy intensity in different sectors of the economy and energy embodied in trade of Beijing based on an input-output model. China Environmental Science, 2012, 32(2):377-384.[黄宝荣,王毅,张慧智,等.北京市分行业能源消耗及国内外贸易隐含能研究.中国环境科学, 2012, 32(2):377-384.]
[22] Ahmad N, Wyckoff A. Carbon dioxide emissions embodied in international trade of goods. Oecd Science Technology&Industry Working Papers, 2003, 25(4):1-22.
[23] Wyckoff A W, Roop J M. The embodiment of carbon in imports of manufactured products:Implications for international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions. Energy Policy, 1994, 22(3):187-194.
[24] Liu Weidong, Zhang Lei, Wang Limao, et al. A sketch map of low-carbon economic development in China.Geographical Research, 2010, 29(5):778-788.[刘卫东,张雷,王礼茂,等.我国低碳经济发展框架初步研究.地理研究, 2010, 29(5):778-788.]
[25] Kowalski P, Shepherd B. South-South trade in goods. OECD Trade Policy Papers No.40, 2006.
[26] Liu H, Liu W D, Fan X M, et al. Carbon emissions embodied in value added chains in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2014, 103:362-370.
[27] Marco F, David V, A South-South survival strategy:The potential for trade among developing countries. World Economy, 2006, 31(5):663-684.
[28] United Nations. A new global partnership:Eradicate poverty and transform economies through sustainable development. Final report of the UN high-level panel of eminent persons on the post-2015 development agenda, 2013.
[29] Dunford M, Liu W D. Uneven and combined development. Regional Studies, 2016, 51(1):69-85.
[30] Liu Weidong. Scientific understanding of the Belt and Road Initiative of China and related research themes. Progress in Geography, 2015, 34(5):538-544.[刘卫东.“一带一路”战略的科学内涵与科学问题.地理科学进展, 2015, 34(5):538-544.]
[31] Liu W D, Dunford M. Inclusive globlization:Unpacking China's Belt and Road Initiative. Area Development and Policy, 2016, 1(3):323-340.
[32] Liu Weidong, Dunford M, Gao Boyang. Discursive construction of the Belt and Road Initiative:From neoliberal to inclusive globalization. Progress in Geography, 2017, 36(11):1321-1331.[刘卫东, Michael Dunford,高菠阳.“一带一路”倡议的理论建构:从新自由主义全球化到包容性全球化.地理科学进展, 2017, 36(11):1321-1331.]
[33] National Information Center."Belt and Road"Big Data Report. Beijing:The Commercial Press, 2017.[国家信息中心.“一带一路”大数据报告.北京:商务印书馆, 2017.]
[34] Zou Jialing, Liu Chunla, Yin Guoqing, et al. Spatial patterns and economic effects of China's trade with countries along the Belt and Road. Progress in Geography, 2015, 34(5):598-605.[邹嘉龄,刘春腊,尹国庆,等.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易格局及其经济贡献.地理科学进展, 2015, 34(5):598-605.]
[35] Dong S, Li Z, Li Y, et al. Resources, environment and economic patterns and key scientific issues of the Silk Road Economic Belt. American Journal of Political Science, 2015, 47(3):389-402.
[36] Schwerhoff G, Sy M. Financing renewable energy in Africa:Key challenge of the sustainable development goals.Renewable&Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2017, 75:393-401.
[37] Wang C, Wang F. China can lead on climate change. Science, 2017, 357(6353):764.
[38] Han M Y, Yao Q H, Liu W D, et al. Tracking embodied carbon flows in the Belt and Road regions. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(9):1263-1274.
[39] World Bank. World Bank Country and Lending Groups:https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups.
[40] Liu Weidong, Tian Jinchen, Ou Xiaoli, et al. The Belt and Road stratege research. Beijing:The Commercial Press, 2017.[刘卫东,田锦尘,欧晓理,等.“一带一路”战略研究.北京:商务印书馆, 2017.]
[41] World Bank. World Development Indicators, 2014:http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=worlddevelopment-indicators.
[42] Lin B, Sun C. Evaluating carbon dioxide emissions in international trade of China. Energy Policy, 2010, 38(1):613-621.
[43] Liu H, Xi Y, Guo J, et al. Energy embodied in the international trade of China:An energy input-output analysis. Energy Policy, 2010, 38(8):3957-3964.
[44] Wiedmann T, Lenzen M, Turner K, et al. Examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities(Part 2):Review of input-output models for the assessment of environmental impacts embodied in trade. Ecological Economics, 2007, 61(1):15-26.
[45] Han M Y, Dunford M, Chen G Q, et al. Global water transfers embodied in Mainland China's foreign trade:Productionand consumption-based perspectives. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2017, 161:188-199.
[46] Chen G Q, Han M Y. Global supply chain of arable land use:Production-based and consumption-based trade imbalance.Land Use Policy, 2015, 49:118-130.
[47] Han M Y, Chen G Q, Li Y L. Global water transfers embodied in international trade:Tracking imbalanced and inefficient flows. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018, 184:50-64.
[48] Zhu Y, Tian Z, Liu J, et al. Low carbon energy systems in China:Visioning regional cooperation through the Belt and Road. Singapore:Springer, 2016.
[49] Zhang Z, Zhao Y, Su B, et al. Embodied carbon in China's foreign trade:An online SCI-E and SSCI based literature review. Renewable&Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2017, 68:492-510.