海外矿业投资环境风险评价研究
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摘要
海外矿业投资环境存在较大的不确定性,基于现有文献、专家经验和世界银行等数据,对海外矿业投资环境进行了风险因素识别,构建了以政治政策、经济金融、社会文化和基础设施为一级指标的风险评价指标体系。利用德尔菲法确定指标权重,根据世界银行等发布的数据以及公认的等级划分规则对评价指标进行了分级,引入变权原理建立了激励型变权评价模型,并选取12个国家进行模型应用。评价结果显示:矿业投资环境风险较低的国家有加拿大、美国、新西兰和罗马尼亚,为矿业投资首选区;风险一般的国家有菲律宾、南非、澳大利亚和墨西哥,为矿业投资次选区;风险较高的国家有俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、肯尼亚和巴西,为矿业投资慎选区。同时,应关注各个国家投资环境中的极端指标可能给项目运营带来的影响。最后提出了相关建议,以帮助矿山企业降低投资风险,为政府部门制定海外矿业投资政策及实施分类管理提供决策依据。
Uncertainty always exists in the overseas mining investment environment.Based on related literatures,expert experience and the data from the World Bank,etc,risk factors of the overseas mining investment environment were identified.A risk evaluation index system was established with political policies,economy and finance,society and culture,and infrastructure facilities as four primary indexes. Delphi method was used to determine the index weights,and the secondary indexes were graded according to the data from the World Bank,etc and recognized grading rules. The principle of contingency theory was introduced to establish an evaluation model with incentive variable weights. Twelve countries were selected for applications. The evaluation results show that countries with lower mining environmental risks are Canada,the United States,New Zealand,and Romania,which are the preferred areas for mining investment;countries with general risks are Philippines,South Africa,Australia and Mexico,which are the sub-selected areas;countries with higher risks are Russia,Kazakhstan,Kenya and Brazil,which are the cautious-selected areas.Meanwhile,more attentions should be paid to the extreme indicators which may have adversely impacts on the operations of the project. Finally,some relevant suggestions were put forward,which may be helpful for the mining companies to reduce the investment risks and provide decision basis for the government to formulate overseas mining investment policies and implement classified management.
Uncertainty always exists in the overseas mining investment environment.Based on related literatures,expert experience and the data from the World Bank,etc,risk factors of the overseas mining investment environment were identified.A risk evaluation index system was established with political policies,economy and finance,society and culture,and infrastructure facilities as four primary indexes. Delphi method was used to determine the index weights,and the secondary indexes were graded according to the data from the World Bank,etc and recognized grading rules. The principle of contingency theory was introduced to establish an evaluation model with incentive variable weights. Twelve countries were selected for applications. The evaluation results show that countries with lower mining environmental risks are Canada,the United States,New Zealand,and Romania,which are the preferred areas for mining investment;countries with general risks are Philippines,South Africa,Australia and Mexico,which are the sub-selected areas;countries with higher risks are Russia,Kazakhstan,Kenya and Brazil,which are the cautious-selected areas.Meanwhile,more attentions should be paid to the extreme indicators which may have adversely impacts on the operations of the project. Finally,some relevant suggestions were put forward,which may be helpful for the mining companies to reduce the investment risks and provide decision basis for the government to formulate overseas mining investment policies and implement classified management.
引文
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[8]Jinjarak Y.Foreign direct investment and macroeconomic risk[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2007,35(3):509-519.
[9]Sarala R M.The impact of cultural differences and acculturation factors on post-acquisition conflict[J].Scandinavian Journal of Management,2010,26(1):38-56.
[10]Johnson C J.Ranking countries for minerals exploration[J].Natural Resources Forum,1990,14(3):178-186.
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[14]邢佳韵,于汶加,张若然,等.中国在哈萨克斯坦矿业投资区域优选评价研究[J].资源科学,2015,37(5):1076-1085.Xing Jiayun,Yu Wenjia,Zhang Ruoran,et al.A structural study of the appraisal index system for optimal mining regions in Kazakhstan[J]. Resources Science,2015,37(5):1076-1085.
[15]雷蕾.菲律宾矿业投资环境研究——镍、铜为例[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2015.Lei Lei.Study on the Philippine Mineral Investment Environment:With Nickel and Copper for Example[D].Beijing:China University of Geosciences(Beijing),2015.
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[17]Saaty T L,?zdemir M S,Shang J S.An innovative ordersof-magnitude approach to AHP-based mutli-criteria decision making:Prioritizing divergent intangible humane acts[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2011,214(3):703-715.
[18]Campbell J P,McCloy R A,Oppler S H,et al.A Theory of Performance[M]//Schmitt N,Walter C B. Personnel Selection in Organizations. San Francisco:Jossey-Bass,1993:35-70.
[19]霍再强,陆海松.区域投资环境综合评判及其应用研究[J].中国流通经济,2008(2):62-65.Huo Zaiqiang,Lu Haisong.Research on regional investment environment synthesis judgment and application[J].China Business and Market,2008(2):62-65.
[20]张振辉,达庆利.灰色系统理论在企业并购风险识别中的应用[J].科研管理,2003,24(6):1-5.Zhang Zhenhui,Da Qingli. Application of grey system theory in M&A risk decision[J].Science Research Management,2003,24(6):1-5.
[21]李志民.基于敏感性分析的矿业投资决策持续优化研究[J].财政研究,2008(8):34-37.Li Zhimin. Research on sustainable optimization of the mining investment decision based on sensitivity analysis[J].Public Finance Research,2008(8):34-37.
[22]Carpenter S,Vellat M.The application of a Planned Economy Country Risk Model to the assessment of market entry into the Chinese banking sector[J].Journal of Financial Services Marketing,2009,13(4):345-356.
[23]Miller K D.A framework for integrated risk management in international business[J].Journal of International Business Studies,1992,23(2):311-331.
[24]Duan F,Ji Q,Liu B Y,et al.Energy investment risk assessment for nations along China’s Belt&Road Initiative[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,170(1):535-547.
[25]Wang X. Model of investment risk prediction based on neural network and data mining technique for construction project[C]//International Symposium on Computational Intelligence and Design. Washington,D C:IEEE Computer Society,2008:373-378.
[26]杨立,汤尚颖.湘鄂西铅锌矿可持续发展的层次模糊评价研究[J].生态经济,2013(11):145-150.Yang Li,Tang Shangying. AHP-FCE of the sustainable development on lead-zinc minerals in western Hunan and Hubei Province[J].Ecological Economy,2013(11):145-150.
[27]仰炬,张朋柱.基于粗糙集信息熵投资优序评价模型实证研究[J].经济管理,2004(14):18-22.Ang Ju,Zhang Pengzhu. An empirical study on the investment order based on rough set information entropy[J].Economic Management,2004(14):18-22.
[28]张雪梅,李春华,赵燕.VaR方法在海外矿业投资风险管理中的应用框架研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(增2):344-348.Zhang Xuemei,Li Chunhua,Zhao Yan. Research on application framework of VaR method on risk management in overseas mining investment[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2014,24(Supp.2):344-348.
[29]李一文.我国海外投资风险预警研究[J].管理世界,2016(9):178-179.Li Yiwen.A risk early warning study on China’s overseas investment[J].Management World,2016(9):178-179.
[30]Gordon T,Pease A.RT Delphi:An efficient,“round-less”almost real time Delphi method[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2006,73(4):321-333.
[31]汪培庄.模糊集与随机集落影[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,1985.Wang Peizhuang. Fuzzy Set and Random Set Shadow[M].Beijing:Beijing Normal University Press,1985.
[32]刘文奇.均衡函数及其在变权综合中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1997(4):58-64,75.Liu Wenqi.Balanced function and its application for variable weight synthesizing[J].Systems Engineering-Theo-ry&Practice,1997(4):58-64,75.
[33]刘文奇.变权综合中的惩罚—激励效用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998(4):41-47.Liu Wenqi. The penalty-incentive utility in variable weight synthesizing[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,1998(4):41-47.
[34]刘文奇.变权综合的激励策略及其解法[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998(12):40-43.Liu Wenqi. The impulsing strategy and its algorithm of variable weight synthesizing[J]. Systems EngineeringTheory&Practice,1998(12):40-43.
[35]钱航,邵云飞,殷俊杰.物联网产业联盟风险评估——基于变权理论与可拓理论的结合[J].技术经济,2015,34(6):121-127.Qian Hang,Shao Yunfei,Yin Junjie.Assessment on risk of internet of things industry alliance:Based on variable weight theory and extenics theory[J]. Technology Economics,2015,34(6):121-127.
[36]钟昌宝.一种供应链风险综合评价方法——变权可拓物元法[J].科技管理研究,2012(3):31-33,50.Zhong Changbao.Study on a kind of comprehensive evaluation method for supply chain risk:Extensive matter element with variable weight method[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2012(3):31-33,50.
[37]舒帮荣,黄琪,刘友兆,等.基于变权的城镇用地扩展生态适宜性空间模糊评价——以江苏省太仓市为例[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(3):402-412.Shu Bangrong,Huang Qi,Liu Youzhao,et al. Spatial fuzzy assessment of ecological suitability for urban land expansion based on variable weights:A case study of Taicang[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2012,27(3):402-412.
[2]常兴国.中国矿业走出去——历程、现状、总结、启示[M].北京:地质出版社,2015.Chang Xingguo. China Mining Industry’s Going Out:History,Status Quo,Summary and Enlightenment[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House,2015.
[3]王文创.我国矿业企业“走出去”模式研究[J].国家行政学院学报,2006(4):73-76.Wang Wenchuang.Studies on“going out”pattern of China’s mineral industries[J].Journal of Chinese Academy of Governance,2006(4):73-76.
[4]Cantegreil J.The audacity of the Texaco/Calasiatic award:René-Jean Dupuy and the internationalization of foreign investment law[J].European Journal of International Law,2011,22(2):441-458.
[5]Allen L,Chakraborty S,Watanabe W.Foreign direct investment and regulatory remedies for banking crises:Lessons from Japan[J].Journal of International Business Studies,2011,42(7):875-893.
[6]Fraser Institute. Annual survey of mining companies2016/2017[R].Vancouver:Fraser Institute,2017.
[7]Levary R,Wan K. An analytic hierarchy process based simulation model for entry mode decision regarding foreign direct investment[J].Omega,1999,27(6):661-677.
[8]Jinjarak Y.Foreign direct investment and macroeconomic risk[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2007,35(3):509-519.
[9]Sarala R M.The impact of cultural differences and acculturation factors on post-acquisition conflict[J].Scandinavian Journal of Management,2010,26(1):38-56.
[10]Johnson C J.Ranking countries for minerals exploration[J].Natural Resources Forum,1990,14(3):178-186.
[11]吴尚昆.中国矿业外资投资环境研究[D].长春:吉林大学,2004.Wu Shangkun.Studies on the Foreign Capital Investment Environment of Chinese Mining Industry[D]. Changchun:Jilin University,2004.
[12]任杰.海外矿产资源项目投资风险评估与实物期权研究[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2014.Ren Jie.Research on Risk Assessment and Real Option of Overseas Mineral Resources Project Investment[D].Beijing:China University of Geosciences(Beijing),2014.
[13]陈俊楠.我国区域矿业投资环境竞争力评价研究[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2016.Chen Junnan. Research on the Evaluation of Regional Mining Investment Environment Competitiveness in China[D]. Beijing:China University of Geosciences(Beijing),2016.
[14]邢佳韵,于汶加,张若然,等.中国在哈萨克斯坦矿业投资区域优选评价研究[J].资源科学,2015,37(5):1076-1085.Xing Jiayun,Yu Wenjia,Zhang Ruoran,et al.A structural study of the appraisal index system for optimal mining regions in Kazakhstan[J]. Resources Science,2015,37(5):1076-1085.
[15]雷蕾.菲律宾矿业投资环境研究——镍、铜为例[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2015.Lei Lei.Study on the Philippine Mineral Investment Environment:With Nickel and Copper for Example[D].Beijing:China University of Geosciences(Beijing),2015.
[16]Charnes A,Cooper W W,Lewin A Y,et al. Sensitivity and stability analysis in DEA[J]. Annals of Operations Research,1985,2(1):139-156.
[17]Saaty T L,?zdemir M S,Shang J S.An innovative ordersof-magnitude approach to AHP-based mutli-criteria decision making:Prioritizing divergent intangible humane acts[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2011,214(3):703-715.
[18]Campbell J P,McCloy R A,Oppler S H,et al.A Theory of Performance[M]//Schmitt N,Walter C B. Personnel Selection in Organizations. San Francisco:Jossey-Bass,1993:35-70.
[19]霍再强,陆海松.区域投资环境综合评判及其应用研究[J].中国流通经济,2008(2):62-65.Huo Zaiqiang,Lu Haisong.Research on regional investment environment synthesis judgment and application[J].China Business and Market,2008(2):62-65.
[20]张振辉,达庆利.灰色系统理论在企业并购风险识别中的应用[J].科研管理,2003,24(6):1-5.Zhang Zhenhui,Da Qingli. Application of grey system theory in M&A risk decision[J].Science Research Management,2003,24(6):1-5.
[21]李志民.基于敏感性分析的矿业投资决策持续优化研究[J].财政研究,2008(8):34-37.Li Zhimin. Research on sustainable optimization of the mining investment decision based on sensitivity analysis[J].Public Finance Research,2008(8):34-37.
[22]Carpenter S,Vellat M.The application of a Planned Economy Country Risk Model to the assessment of market entry into the Chinese banking sector[J].Journal of Financial Services Marketing,2009,13(4):345-356.
[23]Miller K D.A framework for integrated risk management in international business[J].Journal of International Business Studies,1992,23(2):311-331.
[24]Duan F,Ji Q,Liu B Y,et al.Energy investment risk assessment for nations along China’s Belt&Road Initiative[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,170(1):535-547.
[25]Wang X. Model of investment risk prediction based on neural network and data mining technique for construction project[C]//International Symposium on Computational Intelligence and Design. Washington,D C:IEEE Computer Society,2008:373-378.
[26]杨立,汤尚颖.湘鄂西铅锌矿可持续发展的层次模糊评价研究[J].生态经济,2013(11):145-150.Yang Li,Tang Shangying. AHP-FCE of the sustainable development on lead-zinc minerals in western Hunan and Hubei Province[J].Ecological Economy,2013(11):145-150.
[27]仰炬,张朋柱.基于粗糙集信息熵投资优序评价模型实证研究[J].经济管理,2004(14):18-22.Ang Ju,Zhang Pengzhu. An empirical study on the investment order based on rough set information entropy[J].Economic Management,2004(14):18-22.
[28]张雪梅,李春华,赵燕.VaR方法在海外矿业投资风险管理中的应用框架研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(增2):344-348.Zhang Xuemei,Li Chunhua,Zhao Yan. Research on application framework of VaR method on risk management in overseas mining investment[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2014,24(Supp.2):344-348.
[29]李一文.我国海外投资风险预警研究[J].管理世界,2016(9):178-179.Li Yiwen.A risk early warning study on China’s overseas investment[J].Management World,2016(9):178-179.
[30]Gordon T,Pease A.RT Delphi:An efficient,“round-less”almost real time Delphi method[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2006,73(4):321-333.
[31]汪培庄.模糊集与随机集落影[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,1985.Wang Peizhuang. Fuzzy Set and Random Set Shadow[M].Beijing:Beijing Normal University Press,1985.
[32]刘文奇.均衡函数及其在变权综合中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1997(4):58-64,75.Liu Wenqi.Balanced function and its application for variable weight synthesizing[J].Systems Engineering-Theo-ry&Practice,1997(4):58-64,75.
[33]刘文奇.变权综合中的惩罚—激励效用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998(4):41-47.Liu Wenqi. The penalty-incentive utility in variable weight synthesizing[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,1998(4):41-47.
[34]刘文奇.变权综合的激励策略及其解法[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998(12):40-43.Liu Wenqi. The impulsing strategy and its algorithm of variable weight synthesizing[J]. Systems EngineeringTheory&Practice,1998(12):40-43.
[35]钱航,邵云飞,殷俊杰.物联网产业联盟风险评估——基于变权理论与可拓理论的结合[J].技术经济,2015,34(6):121-127.Qian Hang,Shao Yunfei,Yin Junjie.Assessment on risk of internet of things industry alliance:Based on variable weight theory and extenics theory[J]. Technology Economics,2015,34(6):121-127.
[36]钟昌宝.一种供应链风险综合评价方法——变权可拓物元法[J].科技管理研究,2012(3):31-33,50.Zhong Changbao.Study on a kind of comprehensive evaluation method for supply chain risk:Extensive matter element with variable weight method[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2012(3):31-33,50.
[37]舒帮荣,黄琪,刘友兆,等.基于变权的城镇用地扩展生态适宜性空间模糊评价——以江苏省太仓市为例[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(3):402-412.Shu Bangrong,Huang Qi,Liu Youzhao,et al. Spatial fuzzy assessment of ecological suitability for urban land expansion based on variable weights:A case study of Taicang[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2012,27(3):402-412.
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