“中等收入陷阱”在中国存在吗?——人口红利与技术进步的视角
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摘要
进入新常态后,很多学者将中国经济增长速度放缓的现象与"中等收入陷阱"联系起来,但中等收入陷阱的存在性仍备受争议。从概念严谨性的争议和统计研究结论的分歧两条线索梳理不同观点,可将统计研究的意见分歧来源归纳为统计维度、观测时距、收入区间的界定模糊。具体而言,仅从截面和时序的统计维度考察或者将观测时距定义在较短时期内,研究结论认为中等收入陷阱是存在的,反之亦然;"中等"是泛指的收入区间,用来引导经济学概念容易致使判别差异。中等收入陷阱一般的学理依据是人口和技术红利枯竭,从这两个视角论述中等收入陷阱的理论依据是否成立,可以发现:将工资上涨作为中等收入陷阱的充分条件缺乏实践证据,是对刘易斯二元模型的过度解读;技术与经济增长的关系是复杂的,技术红利枯竭并不能成为中等收入陷阱的充分条件。
After entering the New Normal, China's economic growth is slowing down. Many people linked this phenomenon with the middle-income trap, which is a controversial concept. This paper reviews different viewpoints from two clues: one is controversy of concept, the other is the divergence of statistical research conclusions. Furthermore, this paper summarizes the divergence sources of statistical research viewpoints into the definition ambiguity of statistical dimension, observation time interval and income interval. Specifically, the middle-income trap exists when we observe from dimension of cross-section and time sequence, or we define the observation time interval in a relatively short period of time, and vice versa. Secondly, "medium" is a general income interval, which may lead to discriminatory differences when it is used to guide economic concepts. The general theoretical basis of the middle-income trap is the exhaustion of demographic dividend and technological dividend.Therefore, from these two perspectives, this paper discusses whether the theoretical basis of the middle-income trap is valid, and finds that regarding wage rise as a sufficient condition of the middleincome trap is lack of practical evidence and is an over-interpretation of Lewis' s dualistic structure model; the relationship between technology and economic growth is complicated, and the exhaustion of technological dividend is not a sufficient condition for the middle-income trap.
After entering the New Normal, China's economic growth is slowing down. Many people linked this phenomenon with the middle-income trap, which is a controversial concept. This paper reviews different viewpoints from two clues: one is controversy of concept, the other is the divergence of statistical research conclusions. Furthermore, this paper summarizes the divergence sources of statistical research viewpoints into the definition ambiguity of statistical dimension, observation time interval and income interval. Specifically, the middle-income trap exists when we observe from dimension of cross-section and time sequence, or we define the observation time interval in a relatively short period of time, and vice versa. Secondly, "medium" is a general income interval, which may lead to discriminatory differences when it is used to guide economic concepts. The general theoretical basis of the middle-income trap is the exhaustion of demographic dividend and technological dividend.Therefore, from these two perspectives, this paper discusses whether the theoretical basis of the middle-income trap is valid, and finds that regarding wage rise as a sufficient condition of the middleincome trap is lack of practical evidence and is an over-interpretation of Lewis' s dualistic structure model; the relationship between technology and economic growth is complicated, and the exhaustion of technological dividend is not a sufficient condition for the middle-income trap.
引文
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[30]Anderson,J.Chart of the Day:Is There Really Such a Thing As a"Middle-Income Trap".UBS Investment Research,Emerging Economic Comment,2011-7-21.
[31]郭熙保,朱兰.中等收入转型概率与动力因素:基于生存模型分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017,(10).
[32]李杰,叶宇航.跨越“中等收入陷阱”影响因素的实证分析[J].技术经济,2016,(8).
[33]Woo,W.T.Understanding the Middle-Income Trap in Economic Development:The Case of Malaysia.World Economy Lecture Delivered at the University of Nottingham,Globalization and Economic Policy,2011.
[34]郭金兴,胡佩选,牛牛.中等收入陷阱的经验证据、理论逻辑及其对中国经济的启示[J].经济学动态,2014,(1).
[35]韩文龙,李梦凡,谢璐.“中等收入陷阱”:基于国际经验数据的描述与测度[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,(11).
[36](美)阿瑟·刘易斯.二元经济论[M].施炜,译.北京:北京经济学院出版社,1989.
[37]樊纲.中等收入陷阱迷思[J].中国流通经济,2014,(5).
[38]杨成钢,闫东东.质量、数量双重视角下的中国人口红利经济效应变化趋势分析[J].人口学刊,2017,(5).
[39]杨成钢.人口质量红利、产业转型和中国经济社会可持续发展[J].东岳论丛,2018,(1).
[40]叶子荣,段龙龙.“中等收入陷阱论”于中国适用性之辩[J].经济学家,2015,(4).
[41]Lucas,R.J.On the Mechanics of Economic Development.Journal of Monetary Economics1988,(1).
[42]刘福垣.坐井观天的哀叹---涉及人力资源开发的三个伪命题[J].中国人力资源开发2012,(6).
[43]张欢,徐康宁,孙文远.城镇化、教育质量与中等收入陷阱——基于跨国面板数据的实证分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018,(5).
[44]范洪敏,穆怀中.人口老龄化会阻碍中等收入阶段跨越吗?[J].人口研究,2018,(1).
[45](英)小罗伯特·E.卢卡斯.为何资本不从富国流向穷国[M].罗汉,应洪基,译.南京:江苏人民出版社,1989.
[46]Krugman,P.The Myth of Asia’s Miracle.Foreign Affairs,1994,(6).
[47]贾根良.演化发展经济学与新结构经济学——哪一种产业政策的理论范式更适合中国国情[J].南方经济,2018,(1).
[48]贾根良,刘琳.中国稀土问题的经济史透视与演化经济学分析[J].北京大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2011,(4).
[49]清华大学社会学系社会发展研究课题组.“中等收入陷阱”还是“转型陷阱”?[J].开放时代,2012,(3).
[2]Gill,I.and Kharas,H.An East Asian Renaissance:Ideas for Economic Growth.Washington DC:The World Bank Publications,2007.
[3]Ohno,K.Avoiding the Middle Income Trap:Renovating Industrial Policy Formulation in Vietnam.ASEAN Economic Bulletin.2009,(1).
[4]Kharas,H.and Kohli,H.What Is the Middle Income Trap,Why do Countries Fall into it,and How Can It Be Avoided?.Global Journal of Emerging Market Economics,2011,(3).
[5]蔡昉.“中等收入陷阱”的理论、经验与针对性[J].经济学动态,2011,(12).
[6]Middle-Income Claptrap:Do Countries Get“Trapped”Between Poverty And Prosperity?.The Economist,2013-02-16.
[7]Cai,F.Is There a“Middle-income Trap”?Theories,Experiences and Relevance to China China&World Economy,2012,(1).
[8]江时学.拉美现代化研究中的若干问题[J].拉丁美洲研究,2011,(4).
[9]江时学.“中等收入陷阱”:被“扩容”的概念[J].国际问题研究,2013,(2).
[10]厉以宁.论“中等收入陷阱”[J].经济学动态,2012,(12).
[11]降蕴彰.我相信,中国不会落入“中等收入陷阱”[N].经济观察报,2012-12-31.
[12]刘福垣.中等收入陷阱是一个伪命题[J].南风窗,2011,(16).
[13]徐康宁.为什么“中等收入陷阱”经不住现实检验[J].南京财经大学学报,2017,(5).
[14]郭熙保,朱兰.“中等收入陷阱”存在吗?——基于统一增长理论与转移概率矩阵的考察[J].经济学动态,2016,(10).
[15]华生,汲铮.中等收入陷阱还是中等收入阶段[J].经济学动态,2015,(7).
[16]范和生,唐惠敏.“中等收入陷阱”,本身就是理论陷阱?[J].人民论坛·学术前沿,2015,(4).
[17]Agénor,P.R.,Canuto,O.and Jelenic,M.Avoiding Middle-Income Growth Traps.The World Bank Working Paper,2012,No98.
[18]张德荣.“中等收入陷阱”发生机理与中国经济增长的阶段性动力[J].经济研究,2013,(9).
[19]Im,F.G.and Rosenblatt,D.Middle-income traps:A Conceptual And Empirical Survey.World Bank Policy Reserch Working Paper,2013,No.6594.
[20]Felipe,J.,Kumar,U.and Galope,R.Middle-Income Transitions:Trap or Myth?.ADB Economics Working Paper Series,2014-NO.421.
[21]Han,X.,Wei,S.Re-Examining the Middle-Income Trap Hypothesis(Mith):What To Reject And What To Revive?.Journal of International Money and Finance,2017,(73).
[22]Prati,A.,Onorato,M.G.and Papageorgiou,C.Which Reforms Work and Under What Institutional Environment?Evidence From a New Data Set On Structural Reforms.Review of Economics and Statistics,2013,(3).
[23]Bulman,D.,Eden,M.and Nguyen,H.Transitioning from Low-Income Growth to High-Income Growth:Is there a Middle-income Trap?.WB Policy Research Working Paper,2014,No.7104.
[24]Ye,L.and Robertson,P.E.On the Existence of a Middle-Income Trap.Economic Record,2016,(297).
[25]G觟nen觭,R.The Middle Income Plateau:Trap or Springboard?.OECD Economics Department Working Papers,2017,No.1446.
[26]中国经济增长与宏观稳定课题组.中国可持续增长的机制:证据、理论和政策[J].经济研究,2008,(10).
[27]林志帆.“中等收入陷阱”存在吗?——基于增长收敛模型的识别方法[J].世界经济研究,2014,(11).
[28]刘金全,王俏茹,刘达禹.中国跨越“中等收入陷阱”的路径突破——基于增长收敛理论的识别及“双轮驱动”检验[J].上海财经大学学报,2018,(1).
[29]Felipe,J.,Abdon,A.M.and Kumar,U.Tracking the Middle Income Trap:What is it,Who is in it,and Why?.Levy Economics Institute Working Paper,2012,No.715.
[30]Anderson,J.Chart of the Day:Is There Really Such a Thing As a"Middle-Income Trap".UBS Investment Research,Emerging Economic Comment,2011-7-21.
[31]郭熙保,朱兰.中等收入转型概率与动力因素:基于生存模型分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017,(10).
[32]李杰,叶宇航.跨越“中等收入陷阱”影响因素的实证分析[J].技术经济,2016,(8).
[33]Woo,W.T.Understanding the Middle-Income Trap in Economic Development:The Case of Malaysia.World Economy Lecture Delivered at the University of Nottingham,Globalization and Economic Policy,2011.
[34]郭金兴,胡佩选,牛牛.中等收入陷阱的经验证据、理论逻辑及其对中国经济的启示[J].经济学动态,2014,(1).
[35]韩文龙,李梦凡,谢璐.“中等收入陷阱”:基于国际经验数据的描述与测度[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,(11).
[36](美)阿瑟·刘易斯.二元经济论[M].施炜,译.北京:北京经济学院出版社,1989.
[37]樊纲.中等收入陷阱迷思[J].中国流通经济,2014,(5).
[38]杨成钢,闫东东.质量、数量双重视角下的中国人口红利经济效应变化趋势分析[J].人口学刊,2017,(5).
[39]杨成钢.人口质量红利、产业转型和中国经济社会可持续发展[J].东岳论丛,2018,(1).
[40]叶子荣,段龙龙.“中等收入陷阱论”于中国适用性之辩[J].经济学家,2015,(4).
[41]Lucas,R.J.On the Mechanics of Economic Development.Journal of Monetary Economics1988,(1).
[42]刘福垣.坐井观天的哀叹---涉及人力资源开发的三个伪命题[J].中国人力资源开发2012,(6).
[43]张欢,徐康宁,孙文远.城镇化、教育质量与中等收入陷阱——基于跨国面板数据的实证分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018,(5).
[44]范洪敏,穆怀中.人口老龄化会阻碍中等收入阶段跨越吗?[J].人口研究,2018,(1).
[45](英)小罗伯特·E.卢卡斯.为何资本不从富国流向穷国[M].罗汉,应洪基,译.南京:江苏人民出版社,1989.
[46]Krugman,P.The Myth of Asia’s Miracle.Foreign Affairs,1994,(6).
[47]贾根良.演化发展经济学与新结构经济学——哪一种产业政策的理论范式更适合中国国情[J].南方经济,2018,(1).
[48]贾根良,刘琳.中国稀土问题的经济史透视与演化经济学分析[J].北京大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2011,(4).
[49]清华大学社会学系社会发展研究课题组.“中等收入陷阱”还是“转型陷阱”?[J].开放时代,2012,(3).