松嫩高平原土地利用变化分析及趋势模拟——以黑龙江省巴彦县为例
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摘要
以松嫩高平原典型地域黑龙江省巴彦县为研究区,以1991年、2009年和2015年3期土地利用数据为基础,利用GIS空间分析技术,分析其土地利用数量变化及空间转换图谱的阶段性特征,运用景观生态学中"网格采样"方法,改进传统土地利用动态度模型,实现土地利用动态度指数的空间化,并结合地统计学中趋势分析方法,分析土地利用空间动态变化差异及趋势特征;采用CA-Markov模型模拟2025年土地利用空间格局。结果表明:1)1991~2015年24a间土地利用转换多围绕耕地进行,且1991~2009年变化速率及程度强于2009~2015年。1991~2009年研究区南部河流周边地带土地利用转换最为频繁,并以水域和未利用地到耕地的转变最为剧烈,说明垦荒是当地最主要的土地利用干扰方式;2009~2015年土地利用转换发生类型趋于单一化,且变化程度明显趋缓。2)1991~2015年前后两个时段内土地利用动态度差异明显,1991~2009年研究区东北-西南和东南-西北均具有较好的方向拟合趋势,高动态度区多分布于研究区南部的松花江乡、富江乡境内和正东部的黑山镇境内,而低值区多位于北部、西部和东部地区;2009~2015年研究区动态度方向拟合效果较弱,动态度急剧下降,土地利用较为随机。3)2025年模拟结果显示,研究区耕地缓慢减少,其他用地类型面积略微增加,表明随着当地土地资源的开发深入,未来巴彦县土地利用变化将趋于稳定。
The study on the land use characteristics and its spatial distribution was the foundation for the reasonable exploition and utilization of regional land. Taking typical region in Songnen High Plain,Bayan County,Heilongjiang Province as the study area,the traditional land-use dynamic degree model was improved by using "grid sampling" in landscape ecology and by using trend analysis in statistical method. And spatial-dynamic degree index was realized and was then used to analyze the spatial difference and trend characteristics of land use dynamic change based on three years' land use data of 1991,2009 and 2015. Also,the spatial pattern change of land use in 2025 was simulated and predicted by using the cellular automate-Markov(CA-Markov) model. The results were shown as follows: 1) Land use conversion from 1991 to 2015 occurred mainly around the cultivated land. And the change rate and degree from1991 to 2009 were greater than that from 2009 to 2015. The change of land use type occurred most frequently in river surroundings located in the south of the study area from 1991 to 2009,but the water area and the unused land were mostly changed into cultivated land,which showed that land reclamation was the main way to the disturbance of land use. However,conversion types of land use was single and slowed down from 2009 to 2015. 2) The dynamic degree of land use was significantly different between before and after the periods of 1991 to 2015. The better fitting trend of land use was in the northeast-southwest and southeast-northwest of the study area from 1991 to 2009. And the most frequent dynamic area of land use change was distributed in Songhua River Township,Fujiang Town located in the south of the study area and Heishan town located in the eastern district. The low dynamic area of land use change was mainly distributed in western,eastern and northern district of the study area. The fitting effect of dynamic degree direction was badly related,and it showed that land use was more randomly from 2009 to 2015. 3) The simulation results in 2025 showed that the area of cultivated land decreased slowly,but that of other types of land use increased slightly. The funding showed that land use change in Bayan County would be stable with the further development of local land resources.
The study on the land use characteristics and its spatial distribution was the foundation for the reasonable exploition and utilization of regional land. Taking typical region in Songnen High Plain,Bayan County,Heilongjiang Province as the study area,the traditional land-use dynamic degree model was improved by using "grid sampling" in landscape ecology and by using trend analysis in statistical method. And spatial-dynamic degree index was realized and was then used to analyze the spatial difference and trend characteristics of land use dynamic change based on three years' land use data of 1991,2009 and 2015. Also,the spatial pattern change of land use in 2025 was simulated and predicted by using the cellular automate-Markov(CA-Markov) model. The results were shown as follows: 1) Land use conversion from 1991 to 2015 occurred mainly around the cultivated land. And the change rate and degree from1991 to 2009 were greater than that from 2009 to 2015. The change of land use type occurred most frequently in river surroundings located in the south of the study area from 1991 to 2009,but the water area and the unused land were mostly changed into cultivated land,which showed that land reclamation was the main way to the disturbance of land use. However,conversion types of land use was single and slowed down from 2009 to 2015. 2) The dynamic degree of land use was significantly different between before and after the periods of 1991 to 2015. The better fitting trend of land use was in the northeast-southwest and southeast-northwest of the study area from 1991 to 2009. And the most frequent dynamic area of land use change was distributed in Songhua River Township,Fujiang Town located in the south of the study area and Heishan town located in the eastern district. The low dynamic area of land use change was mainly distributed in western,eastern and northern district of the study area. The fitting effect of dynamic degree direction was badly related,and it showed that land use was more randomly from 2009 to 2015. 3) The simulation results in 2025 showed that the area of cultivated land decreased slowly,but that of other types of land use increased slightly. The funding showed that land use change in Bayan County would be stable with the further development of local land resources.
引文
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[12]齐杨,邬建国,李建龙,等.中国东西部中小城市景观格局及其驱动力[J].生态学报,2013,33(1):0275-0285.
[13]刘光盛,王红梅,胡月明,等.基于不同调查时点数据的黑龙江省土地利用变化及政策驱动分析[J].农业现代化研究,2015,36(05):869-875.
[14]张丁轩,付梅臣,陶金,等.基于CLUE-S模型的矿业城市土地利用变化情景模拟[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(12):246-256.
[15]乔伟峰,盛业华,方斌,等.基于转移矩阵的高度城市化区域土地利用演变信息挖掘-以江苏省苏州市为例[J].地理研究,2013,32(08):1497-1507.
[16]侍昊,薛建辉,马婉丽.1991-2006年无锡市土地利用变化动态度及转换参数分析[J].南京林业大学学报(自然科学版),2012,36(06):63-68.
[17]李晓岚,程昌秀,陈驰.土地利用动态度的跨行政区空间融合方法-以北京市房山区土地利用为例[J].地理与地理信息科学,2014,30(4):0056-0058.
[18]梁友嘉,徐中民,钟方雷.基于SD和CLUE-S模型的张掖市甘州区土地利用情景分析[J].地理研究,2011,30(3):564-576.
[19]王金亮,邵景安,李阳兵.近20 a三峡库区农林地利用变化图谱特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(02):0235-0246.
[20]MALEKMOHAMMADI B,RAHIMI BLOUCHI L.Ecological risk assessment of wetland ecosystems using multi criteria decision making and geographic information system[J].Ecological Indicators,2014,41:133-144.
[21]贡璐,张海峰,安尼瓦尔,等.干旱区内陆河流域典型绿洲土地利用格局变化中的人为影响空间分异研究[J].干旱区地理,2009,32(4):585-591.
[22]彭建,党威雄,刘焱序,等.景观生态风险评价研究进展与展望[J].地理学报,2015,70(4):664-677.
[23]宋戈,邹朝晖,王越.东北粮食主产区县域耕地产能核算及其影响因子分析[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(24):308-317.
[24]杨俊,解鹏,席建超,等.基于元胞自动机模型的土地利用变化模拟—以大连经济技术开发区为例[J].地理学报,2015,70(3):461-475.
[2]王友生,余新晓,贺康宁,等.基于CA?Markov模型的藉河流域土地利用变化动态模拟[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(12):330-336.
[3]邱炳文,王钦敏,陈崇成,等.福建省土地利用多尺度空间自相关分析[J].自然资源学报,2007,22(2):311-320.
[4]GAYAN NIS HAD WIJESEKARA,BABAK FARJAD,ANIL GUPTA,et al.A comprehensive land-Use/hydrological modeling system for scenario simulations in the Elbow River Watershed,Alberta,Canada[J].Environmental Management,2014,53:357-381.
[5]杜国明,李昀,于凤荣,等.基于遥感的2000-2009年三江平原北部耕地变化特征分析[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(1):225-229.
[6]宋戈,李丹,王越,等.松嫩高平原黑土区耕地利用系统安全格局及其空间演变[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(4):212-221.
[7]郭碧云,张广军.基于GIS和Markov模型的内蒙古农牧交错带土地利用变化[J].农业工程学报,2009,25(12):291-298.
[8]常雄凯,刘淼,李春林,等.辽宁沿海土地利用变化的图谱特征[J].生态学杂志,2015,34(12):3459-3465.
[9]LAMBIN E F,BAULIES X,BOCKSTAEL N.Land-use and Land-cover change(LUCC)Implementation Strategy[R].IGBP:Stochkholm,1999.
[10]何丹,周璟,高伟,等.基于CA-Markov模型的滇池流域土地利用变化动态模拟研究[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2014,50(6):1095-1105.
[11]LIU JIYUAN,ZHANG ZENGXIANG,XU XINLIANG.Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China during the early 21st century.J.Geogr.Sci.2010,20(4):483-494.
[12]齐杨,邬建国,李建龙,等.中国东西部中小城市景观格局及其驱动力[J].生态学报,2013,33(1):0275-0285.
[13]刘光盛,王红梅,胡月明,等.基于不同调查时点数据的黑龙江省土地利用变化及政策驱动分析[J].农业现代化研究,2015,36(05):869-875.
[14]张丁轩,付梅臣,陶金,等.基于CLUE-S模型的矿业城市土地利用变化情景模拟[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(12):246-256.
[15]乔伟峰,盛业华,方斌,等.基于转移矩阵的高度城市化区域土地利用演变信息挖掘-以江苏省苏州市为例[J].地理研究,2013,32(08):1497-1507.
[16]侍昊,薛建辉,马婉丽.1991-2006年无锡市土地利用变化动态度及转换参数分析[J].南京林业大学学报(自然科学版),2012,36(06):63-68.
[17]李晓岚,程昌秀,陈驰.土地利用动态度的跨行政区空间融合方法-以北京市房山区土地利用为例[J].地理与地理信息科学,2014,30(4):0056-0058.
[18]梁友嘉,徐中民,钟方雷.基于SD和CLUE-S模型的张掖市甘州区土地利用情景分析[J].地理研究,2011,30(3):564-576.
[19]王金亮,邵景安,李阳兵.近20 a三峡库区农林地利用变化图谱特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(02):0235-0246.
[20]MALEKMOHAMMADI B,RAHIMI BLOUCHI L.Ecological risk assessment of wetland ecosystems using multi criteria decision making and geographic information system[J].Ecological Indicators,2014,41:133-144.
[21]贡璐,张海峰,安尼瓦尔,等.干旱区内陆河流域典型绿洲土地利用格局变化中的人为影响空间分异研究[J].干旱区地理,2009,32(4):585-591.
[22]彭建,党威雄,刘焱序,等.景观生态风险评价研究进展与展望[J].地理学报,2015,70(4):664-677.
[23]宋戈,邹朝晖,王越.东北粮食主产区县域耕地产能核算及其影响因子分析[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(24):308-317.
[24]杨俊,解鹏,席建超,等.基于元胞自动机模型的土地利用变化模拟—以大连经济技术开发区为例[J].地理学报,2015,70(3):461-475.
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