基于层次分析法的城市地震灾害风险评估研究
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摘要
我国不断加快的城市化进程造成城市人口密度增大、各种基础设施十分密集,一旦发生地震,往往会带来十分严重的人员伤亡和巨大的经济损失。人们对城市灾害综合风险的正确评估和科学管理成为实现减灾的最佳途径。基于层次分析法并结合灾害风险学理论,本文着重分析了影响城市地震灾害损失的4个主要因素:危险性、暴露性、脆弱性和抗震救灾能力,通过构建城市地震灾害风险指数来计算一个地区的地震灾害风险大小。评价和比较了西安和咸阳两座城市地震灾害风险程度,评价结果可为震前风险区域判定、合理进行区域工程建设和产业结构分工以及重点防震区域的发展规划提供可靠的理论支持。
As the process of urbanization in our country continues to accelerate,the density of urban population and infrastructure is increasingly high.Once an earthquake occurs,it often leads to serious casualties and huge economic losses.People's correct assessment of the comprehensive risk of urban disasters and scientific and rational management become the best way to reduce disaster.Based on the analytic hierarchy process and the theory of disaster risk,this paper focuses on the analysis of four main factors affecting the loss of urban earthquake disaster:risk,exposure,vulnerability and earthquake relief ability.By constructing the risk index of urban earthquake disaster,the risk size of a local earthquake disaster is calculated.Comparison of earthquake risks evaluated by the proposed method for two big cities provides reliable theoretical support for the determination of pre-earthquake risk region,reasonable regional engineering construction and industrial structure division,and development planning of key earthquake-resistant regions.
As the process of urbanization in our country continues to accelerate,the density of urban population and infrastructure is increasingly high.Once an earthquake occurs,it often leads to serious casualties and huge economic losses.People's correct assessment of the comprehensive risk of urban disasters and scientific and rational management become the best way to reduce disaster.Based on the analytic hierarchy process and the theory of disaster risk,this paper focuses on the analysis of four main factors affecting the loss of urban earthquake disaster:risk,exposure,vulnerability and earthquake relief ability.By constructing the risk index of urban earthquake disaster,the risk size of a local earthquake disaster is calculated.Comparison of earthquake risks evaluated by the proposed method for two big cities provides reliable theoretical support for the determination of pre-earthquake risk region,reasonable regional engineering construction and industrial structure division,and development planning of key earthquake-resistant regions.
引文
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[10] 何萍,陈晓发,傅冠华.基于应急基础数据库的城市防震减灾能力评价指标研究[J].华南地震,2010,30(2):36-45.
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[12] 肖凯灵.城市地震灾害风险的损失评价研究[D].西安:西安石油大学,2011.
[13] 黄崇福.自然灾害风险分析的基本原理[J].自然灾害学报,1999(2):21-30.
[14] 颜峻,左哲.自然灾害风险评估指标体系及方法研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(11):61-65.
[15] 邓雪,李家铭,曾浩健,等.层次分析法权重计算方法分析及其应用研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(7):93-100.
[16] 吴红华,李正农.灾害损失评估的区间数模糊综合评判方法[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(6):149-153.
[2] DAVIDSON R A.An urban earthquake disaster risk index [D].California:Stanford University,1997.
[3] 张明媛.城市承灾能力及灾害综合风险评价研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2008.
[4] 袁一凡,陈永.日本阪神大震灾在应急救灾上的几点教训[J].自然灾害学报,1995(4):53-61.
[5] 张风华,谢礼立.城市防震减灾能力评估研究[J].自然灾害学报,2001,10(4):318-329.
[6] 原廷宏.依法做好地震应急是减轻地震灾害的关键环节[J].灾害学,1995(2):94-96.
[7] 肖遥,丁浩,王超,等.基于层次分析法的城市非工程性防震减灾能力综合评价模型[J].防灾减灾学报,2015,31(4):35-42.
[8] 谢礼立.城市防震减灾能力的定义及评估方法[J].地震工程与工程振动,2006,27(3):1-10.
[9] 刘莉,谢礼立.层次分析法在城市防震减灾能力评估中的应用[J].自然灾害学报,2008,17(2):48-52.
[10] 何萍,陈晓发,傅冠华.基于应急基础数据库的城市防震减灾能力评价指标研究[J].华南地震,2010,30(2):36-45.
[11] 廖红强,邱勇,杨侠,等.对应用层次分析法确定权重系数的探讨[J].机械工程师,2012(6):22-25.
[12] 肖凯灵.城市地震灾害风险的损失评价研究[D].西安:西安石油大学,2011.
[13] 黄崇福.自然灾害风险分析的基本原理[J].自然灾害学报,1999(2):21-30.
[14] 颜峻,左哲.自然灾害风险评估指标体系及方法研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(11):61-65.
[15] 邓雪,李家铭,曾浩健,等.层次分析法权重计算方法分析及其应用研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(7):93-100.
[16] 吴红华,李正农.灾害损失评估的区间数模糊综合评判方法[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(6):149-153.