面向巨灾保险的营运期公路边坡多灾害风险评估
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摘要
为应对运营期公路边坡的巨灾风险,减少经济损失,提出了一种服务于巨灾保险的公路边坡风险评估方法。该方法建立了结合事故可能性和事故损失的营运期公路边坡灾害风险矩阵决策模型。其中的事故可能性评估采用加权层次分析法,指标体系包含致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾载体3个因素,致灾因子涵盖保险所涉及的台风及强热带风暴、暴雨、龙卷风、洪水及水库溃坝等自然灾害。事故损失则按照保险赔额划分等级,同时提出利用结构物价值和交通量、居民数的线性组合计算方法以实现系统自动化。另外,在单灾害风险评估的基础上,提出基于概率理论的多灾害耦合计算方法。最后,通过宁波市国省道巨灾风险评估及软件平台实施以来的实践,对所提评估方法进行了验证,结果表明评估结果与实际相符。风险评估的相关结论为灾害发生前、发生时、发生后的公路状况巡检提供了理论依据,有利于消除风险隐患,提高保险收益,创造社会效益。
To deal with the catastrophe risk of the highway slope in the operation period and reduce economic loss, a risk assessment method of highway slope for catastrophe insurance was proposed. This method establishes a risk matrix decision-making model of highway slope disaster in operation period, which combines accident possibility and accident loss. The accident possibility was evaluated based on the weighted analytic hierarchy process. The index system contains three layers considering the hazard factors, disaster environment and disaster carrier, among which, the hazard factors cover typhoon and strong tropical storm, rainstorm, tornado, flood, reservoir dam break and other natural disasters related to insurance. Accident losses were classified by the insurance claim. At the same time, a linear combination calculation method of structure value, traffic volume and resident number was proposed to realize system automation. Based on single disaster risk assessment, a multi disaster coupling calculation method based on probability theory was put forward. Finally, the proposed assessment method was verified through the practice of Ningbo national and provincial highway catastrophe risk assessment and software platform implementation. It shows that the assessment results are consistent with the actual situation. The relevant conclusions of risk assessment provide a theoretical basis for the road inspection before, when and after the occurrence of the disaster and are beneficial to eliminate risk risks, improve insurance revenue and create social benefits.
To deal with the catastrophe risk of the highway slope in the operation period and reduce economic loss, a risk assessment method of highway slope for catastrophe insurance was proposed. This method establishes a risk matrix decision-making model of highway slope disaster in operation period, which combines accident possibility and accident loss. The accident possibility was evaluated based on the weighted analytic hierarchy process. The index system contains three layers considering the hazard factors, disaster environment and disaster carrier, among which, the hazard factors cover typhoon and strong tropical storm, rainstorm, tornado, flood, reservoir dam break and other natural disasters related to insurance. Accident losses were classified by the insurance claim. At the same time, a linear combination calculation method of structure value, traffic volume and resident number was proposed to realize system automation. Based on single disaster risk assessment, a multi disaster coupling calculation method based on probability theory was put forward. Finally, the proposed assessment method was verified through the practice of Ningbo national and provincial highway catastrophe risk assessment and software platform implementation. It shows that the assessment results are consistent with the actual situation. The relevant conclusions of risk assessment provide a theoretical basis for the road inspection before, when and after the occurrence of the disaster and are beneficial to eliminate risk risks, improve insurance revenue and create social benefits.
引文
[1] 王浩,豆红强,谢永宁,等.路堑边坡全寿命周期风险评估及管理的技术框架[J].岩土力学,2017,38(12):3505-3516.WANG Hao,DOU Hongqiang,XIE Yongning,et al.A technical framework for life cycle risk assessment and management of highway cut slopes[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2017,38(12):3505-3516.(in Chinese)
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[5] 梁涛,王浩,泮俊,等.公路边坡风险评估软件RASlope的研发与应用[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2016,27(1):62-70.LIANG Tao,WANG Hao,PAN Jun,et al.Development and application of software RASlope for highway slope risk assessment[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2016,27(1):62-70.(in Chinese)
[6] 何海鹰,胡甜,赵健.基于AHP的岩质高边坡风险评估指标体系[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2012,43(7):408-415.HE Haiying,HU Tian,ZHAO Jian.Risk assessment indexes system of high rock slope based on AHP[J].Journal of Central South University (Science and Technology),2012,43(7):408-415..(in Chinese)
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[8] 交通运输部安全与质量监督管理司.高速公路路堑高边坡工程施工安全风险评估指南[M].北京:人民交通出版社股份有限公司,2015:101-103.Safety and quality supervision and management department of ministry of transport.Guidelines for Construction Safety Risk Assessment of Highway Cutting High Slope[M].Beijing:People's Communications Publishing House Co.,Ltd.,2015:101-103.(in Chinese)
[9] 万克为,曹之彬.宁波国省道营运期巨灾保险撑起公路“保护伞”[J].宁波通讯,2018(09):62.WAN Kewei,CAO Zhibin.Catastrophe insurance of Ningbo national provincial highway during its operation period supports the "umbrella" of highway [J].Ningbo News,2018 (09):62.(in Chinese)
[10] 曾文彬.为农村公路保个险——福建省全面推行农村公路灾毁保险制度[J].中国公路,2017(8):69-71.ZENG Wenbin.Insurance for Rural Highway:Fujian province comprehensively implements the rural highway disaster insurance system [J].China Highway,2017 (8):69-71.(in Chinese)
[11] 邓晶琎,戴乐子,唐星波.新晃为公路“买保险”[N].湖南日报,2018-03-09(008).DENG Jingjin,DAI Lezi,TANG Xingbo.Xinhuang "buys insurance" for highways [N].Hunan Daily,2018-03-09 (008).(in Chinese)
[12] 浙江省交通投资集团有限公司.高速公路高边坡检查评价标准[R].浙江:浙江省交通投资集团有限公司,2011.Zhejiang Transportation Investment Group Co.,Ltd.Inspection and Evaluation Criteria of Highway High Slope [R].Zhejiang:Zhejiang Transportation Investment Group Co.,Ltd.,2011.(in Chinese)
[13] CHEN Hongxin,ZHANG Shuai,PENG Ming,et al.A physically-based multi-hazard risk assessment platform for regional rainfall-induced slope failures and debris flows[J].Engineering Geology,2016,203:15-29.
[14] Ali A,Huang J,Lyamin A V,et al.Simplified quantitative riskassessment of rainfall-induced landslides modelled by infinite slopes[J].Engineering Geology,2014,179(10):102-116.
[15] 盛初根.宁波山区公路边坡安全性评价及防治措施研究[D].浙江大学,2006.SHENG Chugen.Study on Slope Safety Assessment and Treatment Measures for Ningbo Mountain Highway[D].Zhejiang University,2006.
[16] QI Hongliang,TIAN Weiping,LI Jiachun.Regional risk evaluation of flood disasters for the,trunk-highway in Shaanxi,China[J].International Journal of Environmental Research & Public Health,2015,12(11):13861-13870.
[17] Liu H L,Hu J,Li L P,et al.Rockfall shock risk assessment study of a tunnel portal section[J].Journal of Railway Engineering Society,2017,34(5):65-73.
[18] 刘博,唐微木.巨灾风险评估模型的发展与研究[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(6):151-157.LIU Bo,TANG Weimu.Research and development of catastrophe risk assessment models[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2011,20(6):151-157.(in Chinese)
[2] 张江伟,李小军,迟明杰,等.滑坡灾害的成因机制及其特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,2015,(6):042-49.ZHANG Jiangwei,LI Xiaojun,CHI Mingjie,et al.Analysis of formation mechanism and characteristics of landslide disasters[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2015,(6):042-49.(in Chinese)
[3] Erener A,Mutlu A,Düzgün H S.A comparative study for landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA),logistic regression (LR) and association rule mining (ARM)[J].Engineering Geology,2016,203:45-55.
[4] Chen S C,Wu C Y.Annual landslide risk and effectiveness of risk reduction measures in Shihmen watershed,Taiwan[J].Landslides,2016,13(3):551-563.
[5] 梁涛,王浩,泮俊,等.公路边坡风险评估软件RASlope的研发与应用[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2016,27(1):62-70.LIANG Tao,WANG Hao,PAN Jun,et al.Development and application of software RASlope for highway slope risk assessment[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2016,27(1):62-70.(in Chinese)
[6] 何海鹰,胡甜,赵健.基于AHP的岩质高边坡风险评估指标体系[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2012,43(7):408-415.HE Haiying,HU Tian,ZHAO Jian.Risk assessment indexes system of high rock slope based on AHP[J].Journal of Central South University (Science and Technology),2012,43(7):408-415..(in Chinese)
[7] Scolobig A,Ferlisi S,Cascini L,et.al.Landslide risk management:A SafeLand-designed participatory process[C]//Proceedings of the 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference:Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World-Pathways to a Resilient Society,IDRC Davos,2012:365-368.
[8] 交通运输部安全与质量监督管理司.高速公路路堑高边坡工程施工安全风险评估指南[M].北京:人民交通出版社股份有限公司,2015:101-103.Safety and quality supervision and management department of ministry of transport.Guidelines for Construction Safety Risk Assessment of Highway Cutting High Slope[M].Beijing:People's Communications Publishing House Co.,Ltd.,2015:101-103.(in Chinese)
[9] 万克为,曹之彬.宁波国省道营运期巨灾保险撑起公路“保护伞”[J].宁波通讯,2018(09):62.WAN Kewei,CAO Zhibin.Catastrophe insurance of Ningbo national provincial highway during its operation period supports the "umbrella" of highway [J].Ningbo News,2018 (09):62.(in Chinese)
[10] 曾文彬.为农村公路保个险——福建省全面推行农村公路灾毁保险制度[J].中国公路,2017(8):69-71.ZENG Wenbin.Insurance for Rural Highway:Fujian province comprehensively implements the rural highway disaster insurance system [J].China Highway,2017 (8):69-71.(in Chinese)
[11] 邓晶琎,戴乐子,唐星波.新晃为公路“买保险”[N].湖南日报,2018-03-09(008).DENG Jingjin,DAI Lezi,TANG Xingbo.Xinhuang "buys insurance" for highways [N].Hunan Daily,2018-03-09 (008).(in Chinese)
[12] 浙江省交通投资集团有限公司.高速公路高边坡检查评价标准[R].浙江:浙江省交通投资集团有限公司,2011.Zhejiang Transportation Investment Group Co.,Ltd.Inspection and Evaluation Criteria of Highway High Slope [R].Zhejiang:Zhejiang Transportation Investment Group Co.,Ltd.,2011.(in Chinese)
[13] CHEN Hongxin,ZHANG Shuai,PENG Ming,et al.A physically-based multi-hazard risk assessment platform for regional rainfall-induced slope failures and debris flows[J].Engineering Geology,2016,203:15-29.
[14] Ali A,Huang J,Lyamin A V,et al.Simplified quantitative riskassessment of rainfall-induced landslides modelled by infinite slopes[J].Engineering Geology,2014,179(10):102-116.
[15] 盛初根.宁波山区公路边坡安全性评价及防治措施研究[D].浙江大学,2006.SHENG Chugen.Study on Slope Safety Assessment and Treatment Measures for Ningbo Mountain Highway[D].Zhejiang University,2006.
[16] QI Hongliang,TIAN Weiping,LI Jiachun.Regional risk evaluation of flood disasters for the,trunk-highway in Shaanxi,China[J].International Journal of Environmental Research & Public Health,2015,12(11):13861-13870.
[17] Liu H L,Hu J,Li L P,et al.Rockfall shock risk assessment study of a tunnel portal section[J].Journal of Railway Engineering Society,2017,34(5):65-73.
[18] 刘博,唐微木.巨灾风险评估模型的发展与研究[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(6):151-157.LIU Bo,TANG Weimu.Research and development of catastrophe risk assessment models[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2011,20(6):151-157.(in Chinese)