陇东半干旱地区冬季积温变化特征及其对冬小麦的影响
|
摘要
为了解陇东半干旱地区环县冬季积温变化特征及其对冬小麦的影响,通过Mann-Kendell统计检验法、Pearson相关分析法等手段对冬季积温以及冬小麦发育期资料进行分析研究。结果表明:(1)陇东1981—2016年冬季积温的变化过程中呈现出逐年上升趋势;Mann-Kendall突变检验发现,1990年为冬季积温突变的年份;Morlet小波变换分析得到在30~35年上冬季积温呈现出最为显著的周期变化规律;(2)通过对冬小麦发育期特征分析,发现冬小麦除了在分蘖期表现为推迟的状况,其他播种、出苗、三叶、越冬等发育期均表现为提前的变化特征;对冬小麦发育期与积温进行相关分析,相关系数均为负相关,表明大多数发育期提前1~5天;在冬季积温偏高的年份,冬小麦各发育期普遍提前4~14天;(3)对冬小麦物候间隔期的特征进行分析发现,冬小麦在播种—出苗、播种—分蘖、播种—越冬、播种—返青以及播种—抽穗期,间隔时间呈现出延长的变化特征;在播种—三叶、播种—起身、播种—拔节、播种—开花、播种—成熟期,间隔时间呈现出缩短的变化特征。
To study the variation of winter accumulated temperature in semi-arid area of Longdong and itsinfluence on winter wheat, by means of Mann-Kendell statistical test and Pearson correlation analysis, thewinter accumulated temperature and the development period of winter wheat were analyzed. The resultsshowed that:(1) the winter accumulated temperature had a rising trend year by year in the past 36 years; Mann-Kendall mutation test indicated that 1990 was the mutation year of winter accumulated temperature; Morletwavelet analysis indicated that the winter accumulated temperature had a most significant periodic variation of30-35 years;(2) by analyzing the developmental characteristics of winter wheat, we found that the developmentof winter wheat was delayed in tillering stage, while that of other stages, like sowing, seedling, trefoil,overwintering, etc. were ahead of schedule; the correlation analysis of winter wheat development period andaccumulated temperature showed that the correlation coefficient was negative, indicating that most of thedevelopment stages were advanced by 1-5 days; in the year with higher winter temperature, the winter wheatdevelopment stages were generally ahead by 4-14 days;(3) characteristics analysis of phenology interval showedthat in the stage of sowing to seedling, sowing to tillering, sowing to over wintering, sowing to re-greening andsowing to heading, the phenology interval was prolonged; while in the stage of sowing to trefoil, sowing toheading, sowing to jointing, sowing to flowering and sowing to maturity, the phenology interval was shortened.
To study the variation of winter accumulated temperature in semi-arid area of Longdong and itsinfluence on winter wheat, by means of Mann-Kendell statistical test and Pearson correlation analysis, thewinter accumulated temperature and the development period of winter wheat were analyzed. The resultsshowed that:(1) the winter accumulated temperature had a rising trend year by year in the past 36 years; Mann-Kendall mutation test indicated that 1990 was the mutation year of winter accumulated temperature; Morletwavelet analysis indicated that the winter accumulated temperature had a most significant periodic variation of30-35 years;(2) by analyzing the developmental characteristics of winter wheat, we found that the developmentof winter wheat was delayed in tillering stage, while that of other stages, like sowing, seedling, trefoil,overwintering, etc. were ahead of schedule; the correlation analysis of winter wheat development period andaccumulated temperature showed that the correlation coefficient was negative, indicating that most of thedevelopment stages were advanced by 1-5 days; in the year with higher winter temperature, the winter wheatdevelopment stages were generally ahead by 4-14 days;(3) characteristics analysis of phenology interval showedthat in the stage of sowing to seedling, sowing to tillering, sowing to over wintering, sowing to re-greening andsowing to heading, the phenology interval was prolonged; while in the stage of sowing to trefoil, sowing toheading, sowing to jointing, sowing to flowering and sowing to maturity, the phenology interval was shortened.
引文
[1]刘英,周忠文,昔小丽,等.陇东塬区冬小麦生长量对气候变化的响应[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(27):169-174.
[2]李向东,张德奇,王汉芳,等.越冬前增温对小麦生长发育和产量的影响[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(3):839-846.
[3]周忠文,刘英,张谋草,等.气候变化对陇东塬区冬小麦生长的影响分析[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(24):87-92.
[4]李巧云,年力,刘万代,等.冬前积温对河南省小麦冬前生长发育的影响[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(4):563-569.
[5]尹钧.小麦温光发育研究进展Ⅰ.春化和光周期发育规律[J].麦类作物学报,2016,36(6):681-688.
[6]王媛媛.近50年陇东地区农业气候资源的时空变化特征及其对主要农作物的影响分析[D].兰州:西北师范大学,2013.
[7]张佩,谢小萍,姚薇,等.气候变化背景下江苏省冬小麦发育期对冬季积温的响应[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(29):210-216.
[8]张谋草,赵满来,张红妮,等.气候变化对陇东塬区冬小麦生长发育及产量的影响[J].干旱地区农业研究,2005,23(5):232-235.
[9]杨洪宾,李春光,徐成忠,等.济宁市秋冬积温变迁及其对冬小麦生长的影响[J].中国农业气象,2008,9(1):20-22.
[10]董旭光,李胜利,石振彬,等.近50年山东省农业气候资源变化特征[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(1):269-277.
[11]商兆堂,何浪,商舜,等.江苏省冬小麦生长期间的气候特征[J].江苏农业科学,2015,43(3):56-62.
[12]曹寒,吴淑芳,冯浩,等.不同覆膜种植对土壤水热和冬小麦产量的影响[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(6):110-115.
[13]王春玲,申双和,王润元,等.中原地区地温对冬小麦发育期、生长量和产量的影响[J].干旱气象,2012,30(1):66-70.
[14]康西言,董航宇,姚树然.基于气象因子的冬小麦发育期预报模型[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(4):465-471.
[15]贺丹.积温与春小麦群体生长动态、灌浆特性及产量形成关系的研究[D].哈尔滨:东北农业大学,2015.
[16]高苹,张佩,谢小萍,等.基于海温和环流特征量的江苏省小麦适播期预测[J].气象,2012,38(12):1572-1578.
[17]于彩霞,霍治国,黄大鹏,等.基于大尺度因子的小麦白粉病长期预测模型[J].生态学杂志,2015,34(3):703-711.
[18]吕莉莉,赵国良,高强,等.气候变暖对天水市冬小麦生长的影响[J].西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版,2014,42(2):46-52.
[19]谭凯炎,邬定荣,赵花荣.气候变暖背景下华北平原冬小麦生育期温度条件变化趋势分析[J].中国农业气象,2017,38(6):333-341.
[20]孙倩,黄耀,姬兴杰,等.气候变化背景下河南省冬小麦品种更新特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(4):282-288.
[21]王建源,叶文,李曼华,等.气候变化背景下山东省冬小麦发育期的变化特征[J].中国农学通报,2013(14):161-166.
[2]李向东,张德奇,王汉芳,等.越冬前增温对小麦生长发育和产量的影响[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(3):839-846.
[3]周忠文,刘英,张谋草,等.气候变化对陇东塬区冬小麦生长的影响分析[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(24):87-92.
[4]李巧云,年力,刘万代,等.冬前积温对河南省小麦冬前生长发育的影响[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(4):563-569.
[5]尹钧.小麦温光发育研究进展Ⅰ.春化和光周期发育规律[J].麦类作物学报,2016,36(6):681-688.
[6]王媛媛.近50年陇东地区农业气候资源的时空变化特征及其对主要农作物的影响分析[D].兰州:西北师范大学,2013.
[7]张佩,谢小萍,姚薇,等.气候变化背景下江苏省冬小麦发育期对冬季积温的响应[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(29):210-216.
[8]张谋草,赵满来,张红妮,等.气候变化对陇东塬区冬小麦生长发育及产量的影响[J].干旱地区农业研究,2005,23(5):232-235.
[9]杨洪宾,李春光,徐成忠,等.济宁市秋冬积温变迁及其对冬小麦生长的影响[J].中国农业气象,2008,9(1):20-22.
[10]董旭光,李胜利,石振彬,等.近50年山东省农业气候资源变化特征[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(1):269-277.
[11]商兆堂,何浪,商舜,等.江苏省冬小麦生长期间的气候特征[J].江苏农业科学,2015,43(3):56-62.
[12]曹寒,吴淑芳,冯浩,等.不同覆膜种植对土壤水热和冬小麦产量的影响[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(6):110-115.
[13]王春玲,申双和,王润元,等.中原地区地温对冬小麦发育期、生长量和产量的影响[J].干旱气象,2012,30(1):66-70.
[14]康西言,董航宇,姚树然.基于气象因子的冬小麦发育期预报模型[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(4):465-471.
[15]贺丹.积温与春小麦群体生长动态、灌浆特性及产量形成关系的研究[D].哈尔滨:东北农业大学,2015.
[16]高苹,张佩,谢小萍,等.基于海温和环流特征量的江苏省小麦适播期预测[J].气象,2012,38(12):1572-1578.
[17]于彩霞,霍治国,黄大鹏,等.基于大尺度因子的小麦白粉病长期预测模型[J].生态学杂志,2015,34(3):703-711.
[18]吕莉莉,赵国良,高强,等.气候变暖对天水市冬小麦生长的影响[J].西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版,2014,42(2):46-52.
[19]谭凯炎,邬定荣,赵花荣.气候变暖背景下华北平原冬小麦生育期温度条件变化趋势分析[J].中国农业气象,2017,38(6):333-341.
[20]孙倩,黄耀,姬兴杰,等.气候变化背景下河南省冬小麦品种更新特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(4):282-288.
[21]王建源,叶文,李曼华,等.气候变化背景下山东省冬小麦发育期的变化特征[J].中国农学通报,2013(14):161-166.