气候变暖背景下华北平原冬小麦生育期温度条件变化趋势分析
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摘要
利用华北平原42个农业气象观测站1981-2010年逐日平均气温和冬小麦发育期观测资料,结合增温试验数据,统计分析冬小麦生长季各月平均气温的变化特征、冬小麦关键发育日期和各主要生育阶段平均气温的变化趋势,以探究气候变暖对华北平原冬小麦生育过程温度条件的影响。结果表明:研究期内华北平原冬小麦生长季的10月、12月和2-6月增温趋势显著,2月平均气温上升线性倾向率最大。气候变暖使冬小麦越冬阶段和返青-拔节阶段的平均温度显著升高,从而导致冬小麦拔节-成熟日期显著提前,但冬小麦冬前生长阶段和拔节-成熟阶段的平均温度则未呈现上升趋势。冬小麦冬前生长阶段的温度环境因播种期适应性推迟而保持基本稳定,拔节-成熟阶段平均温度变化不明显则归因于发育期前移和当地气温的季节性变化特点。气候进一步变暖将使冬小麦冬后发育期提前更多,而拔节-成熟阶段的平均温度则不会明显升高。
In order to understand the effects of warming on temperature conditions during various growing periods of winter wheat, the changes of monthly averaged temperature and the changing trends of the dates of critical developmental stages and averaged temperatures during the growing periods of winter wheat in North China Plain were analyzed based on the meteorological and phonological data collected from agrometeorological observation stations from 1981 to 2010 and warming experiments in the region. The results showed that there was a significant warming trend in October, December and between February and June during the growing season in the Plain. Furthermore, the average temperature in February exhibited the maximum linear tendency rate of temperature increasing among the months. Climate warming significantly increased the average temperatures over overwintering and the period from reviving to jointing stage of winter wheat. At the same time, the warming caused the jointing to maturity dates of winter wheat significantly advanced. However, the average temperatures over two periods did not show the same increase trend as the corresponding monthly averaged temperatures. The temperature condition over the period before winter was stable because of delayed sowing, an insignificant change in average temperature during the period from jointing to maturity was attributed to advance of developmental stages and local climatic characteristics of seasonal variation. In addition, climate warming would lead to more advance of post-winter developmental stages of winter wheat, which would keep the average temperature over the period less change.
In order to understand the effects of warming on temperature conditions during various growing periods of winter wheat, the changes of monthly averaged temperature and the changing trends of the dates of critical developmental stages and averaged temperatures during the growing periods of winter wheat in North China Plain were analyzed based on the meteorological and phonological data collected from agrometeorological observation stations from 1981 to 2010 and warming experiments in the region. The results showed that there was a significant warming trend in October, December and between February and June during the growing season in the Plain. Furthermore, the average temperature in February exhibited the maximum linear tendency rate of temperature increasing among the months. Climate warming significantly increased the average temperatures over overwintering and the period from reviving to jointing stage of winter wheat. At the same time, the warming caused the jointing to maturity dates of winter wheat significantly advanced. However, the average temperatures over two periods did not show the same increase trend as the corresponding monthly averaged temperatures. The temperature condition over the period before winter was stable because of delayed sowing, an insignificant change in average temperature during the period from jointing to maturity was attributed to advance of developmental stages and local climatic characteristics of seasonal variation. In addition, climate warming would lead to more advance of post-winter developmental stages of winter wheat, which would keep the average temperature over the period less change.
引文
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[16]Shah F,Nie L X,Cui K H,et al.Rice grain yield and component responses to near 2℃of warming[J].Fiels Crops Research,2014,157:98-110.
[17]康西言,董航宇,姚树然.基于气象因子的冬小麦发育期预报模型[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(4):465-471.Kang X Y,Dong H Y,Yao S R.Prediction model of winter wheat development stages based on meteorological factors[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2015,36(4):465-471.(in Chinese)
[18]肖登攀,陶福禄.过去30年气候变化对华北平原冬小麦物候的影响研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2012,20(11):1539-1545.Xiao D P,Tao F L.Impact of climate change in 1981-2009on winter wheat phenology in the North China Plain[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2012,20(11):1539-1545.(in Chinese)
[19]Tao F L,Zhang Z,Xiao D P,et al.Responses of wheat growth and yield to climate change in different climate zones of China,1981-2009[J].Agr Forest Meteorol,2014,189-190:91-104.
[20]肖登攀,陶福禄,沈彦俊,等.华北平原冬小麦对过去30年气候变化响应的敏感性研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2014,22(4):430-438.Xiao D P,Tao F L,Shen Y J,et al.Sensitivity of response of winter wheat to climate change in the North China Plain in the last three decades[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2014,22(4):430-438.(in Chinese)
[21]胡洵瑀,王靖,冯利平.华北平原冬小麦各生育阶段农业气候要素变化特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(3):317-323.Hu X Y,Wang J,Feng L P.Analysis on agro-climatic elements variation during winter wheat growing season in North China Plain[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2013,34(3):317-323.(in Chinese)
[22]谭方颖,王建林,宋迎波.华北平原近45年气候变化特征分析[J].气象,2010,36(5):40-45.Tan F Y,Wang J L,Song Y B.Characteristics of climate change in the North China Plain for recent 45 years[J].Meteor.Monthly,2010,36(5):40-45.(in Chinese)
[23]姬兴杰,朱业玉,刘晓英,等.气候变化对北方冬麦区冬小麦生育期的影响[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(4):576-581.Ji X J,Zhu Y Y,Liu X Y,et al.Impacts of climate change on the winter wheat growth stages in north China[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2011,32(4):576-581.(in Chinese)
[24]Grant R F,Kimball B A,Conley M M,et al.Controlled warming effects on wheat growth and yield:field measurements and modeling[J].Agron.J.,2011,103:1742-1754.
[25]龚绍先.粮食作物与气象[M]:北京:北京农业大学出版社,1988:39-58.Gong S X.Grain crops and weather[M].Beijing:Beijing Kasetsart University Press,1988:39-58.(in Chinese)
[26]Chen C,Baethgen W E,Robertson A.Contributions of individual variation in temperature,solar radiation and precipitation to crop yield in the North China Plain,1961-2003[J].Climatic Change,2013,116:767-788.
[27]谭凯炎,杨晓光,任三学,等.高温胁迫对华北地区冬小麦灌浆及产量的影响[J].生态学报,2015,35(19):6355-6361.Tan K Y,Yang X G,Ren S X,et al.Yield impact of high temperature stress at the grain filling stage of winter wheat[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2015,35(19):6355-6361.(in Chinese)
[28]Tan K Y,Fang S B,Zhou G S,et al.Responses of irrigated winter wheat yield in North China to increased temperature and elevated CO2 concentration[J].J.Meteorol.Res.,2015,29:691-702.
[29]金之庆,方娟,葛道阔,等.气候变化影响我国冬小麦生产之前瞻[J].作物学报,1994,20(2):186-197.Jin Z Q,Fang J,Ge D K,et al.Prospect to the impacts of climate change on winter wheat production in China[J].Acta Agronomica Sinica,1994,20(2):186-197.(in Chinese)
[30]杜莉,李燕,王志伟.我国西北冬小麦生长发育对气候变化响应分析[J].山西农业科学,2011,39(8):872-876.Du L,Li Y,Wang Z W.Analysis on response of the winter wheat growth to global climate change in Northwest China[J].Journal of Shanxi Agricultural Sciences,2011,39(8):872-876.(in Chinese)
[2]Olesen J E,Trnka M,Kersebaum K C,et al.Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change[J].Europ J Agron,2011,34(2):96-112.
[3]Xiong W,Holman P I,You L Z,et al.Impacts of observed growing-season warming trends since 1980 on crop yields in China[J].Reg.Environ.Change,2014,14:7-16.
[4]Ray D K,Gerber J S,Macdonald G K,et al.Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability[J].Nature Communications,2015,6:5989-5989.
[5]李克南,杨晓光,慕臣英,等.全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响Ⅷ:气候变化对中国冬小麦冬春性品种种植界限的影响[J].中国农业科学,2013,46(8):1583-1594.Li K N,Yang X G,Mu C Y,et al.The possible effects of global warming on cropping systems in ChinaⅧ:the effects of climate change on planting boundaries of different winterspring varieties of winter wheat in China[J].Sci Agric Sin,2013,46(8):1583-1594.(in Chinese)
[6]霍治国,李茂松,李娜,等.季节性变暖对中国农作物病虫害的影响[J].中国农业科学,2012,45(11):2168-2179.Huo Z G,Li M S,Li N,et al.Impacts of seasonal climate warming on crop diseases and pests in China[J].Sci Agric Sin,2012,45(11):2168-2179.(in Chinese)
[7]李祎君,梁宏,王培娟.气候变暖对华北冬小麦种植界限及生育期的影响[J].麦类作物学报,2013,33(2):382-388.Li Y J,Liang H,Wang P J.Effects of climate warming on the planting boundary and developmental stages of winter wheat[J].Journal of Triticeae Crops,2013,33(2):382-388.(in Chinese)
[8]Xiao D P,Tao F L,Liu Y J,et al.Observed changes in winter wheat phenology in the North China Plain for 1981-2009[J].Int.J.Biometeorol.,2013,57:275-285.
[9]Teixeira E I,Fischer G,van Velthuizen H,et al.Global hot-spots of heat stress on agricultural crops due to climate change[J].Agr Forest Meteorol,2013,170(15):206-215.
[10]Zhang Z,Wang P,Chen Y,et al.Global warming over1960-2009 did increase heat stress and reduce cold stress in the major rice-planting areas across China[J].Europ J Agron,2014,59:49-56.
[11]王宏,陈阜,石全红,等.近30a黄淮海农作区冬小麦单产潜力的影响因素分析[J].农业工程学报,2010,26(s1):90-95.Wang H,Chen F,Shi Q H,et al.Analysis of factors on impacting potential productivity of winter wheat in Huanghuaihai agricultural area over 30 years[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2010,26(s1):90-95.(in Chinese)
[12]胡琦,潘学标,邵长秀,等.1961-2010年中国农业热量资源分布和变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(2):119-127.Hu Q,Pan X B,Shao C X,et al.Distribution and variation of China agricultural heatresources in 1961-2010[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2014,35(2):119-127.(in Chinese)
[13]杜莲英,王秀芬,尤飞.黄淮海区气候变化及其对冬小麦光温生产潜力的影响[J].中国农业资源区划,2015,36(3):112-119.Du L Y,Wang X F,You F.Climate change and its impact to winter wheat potential productivity of Huang-Huai-Hai region in China[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2015,36(3):112-119.
[14]Tian Y L,Chen J,Chen C Q,et al.Warming impacts on winter wheat phenophase and grain yield under field conditions in Yangtze Delta Plain,China[J].Field Crops Res.,2012,134:193-199.
[15]谭凯炎,房世波,任三学.增温对华北冬小麦生产影响的试验研究[J].气象学报,2012,70(4):902-908.Tan K Y,Fang S B,Ren S X.Winter wheat growth and yield response to climate warming by controlled experiment[J].Acta Meteorol Sin,2012,70(4):902-908.(in Chinese)
[16]Shah F,Nie L X,Cui K H,et al.Rice grain yield and component responses to near 2℃of warming[J].Fiels Crops Research,2014,157:98-110.
[17]康西言,董航宇,姚树然.基于气象因子的冬小麦发育期预报模型[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(4):465-471.Kang X Y,Dong H Y,Yao S R.Prediction model of winter wheat development stages based on meteorological factors[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2015,36(4):465-471.(in Chinese)
[18]肖登攀,陶福禄.过去30年气候变化对华北平原冬小麦物候的影响研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2012,20(11):1539-1545.Xiao D P,Tao F L.Impact of climate change in 1981-2009on winter wheat phenology in the North China Plain[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2012,20(11):1539-1545.(in Chinese)
[19]Tao F L,Zhang Z,Xiao D P,et al.Responses of wheat growth and yield to climate change in different climate zones of China,1981-2009[J].Agr Forest Meteorol,2014,189-190:91-104.
[20]肖登攀,陶福禄,沈彦俊,等.华北平原冬小麦对过去30年气候变化响应的敏感性研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2014,22(4):430-438.Xiao D P,Tao F L,Shen Y J,et al.Sensitivity of response of winter wheat to climate change in the North China Plain in the last three decades[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2014,22(4):430-438.(in Chinese)
[21]胡洵瑀,王靖,冯利平.华北平原冬小麦各生育阶段农业气候要素变化特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(3):317-323.Hu X Y,Wang J,Feng L P.Analysis on agro-climatic elements variation during winter wheat growing season in North China Plain[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2013,34(3):317-323.(in Chinese)
[22]谭方颖,王建林,宋迎波.华北平原近45年气候变化特征分析[J].气象,2010,36(5):40-45.Tan F Y,Wang J L,Song Y B.Characteristics of climate change in the North China Plain for recent 45 years[J].Meteor.Monthly,2010,36(5):40-45.(in Chinese)
[23]姬兴杰,朱业玉,刘晓英,等.气候变化对北方冬麦区冬小麦生育期的影响[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(4):576-581.Ji X J,Zhu Y Y,Liu X Y,et al.Impacts of climate change on the winter wheat growth stages in north China[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2011,32(4):576-581.(in Chinese)
[24]Grant R F,Kimball B A,Conley M M,et al.Controlled warming effects on wheat growth and yield:field measurements and modeling[J].Agron.J.,2011,103:1742-1754.
[25]龚绍先.粮食作物与气象[M]:北京:北京农业大学出版社,1988:39-58.Gong S X.Grain crops and weather[M].Beijing:Beijing Kasetsart University Press,1988:39-58.(in Chinese)
[26]Chen C,Baethgen W E,Robertson A.Contributions of individual variation in temperature,solar radiation and precipitation to crop yield in the North China Plain,1961-2003[J].Climatic Change,2013,116:767-788.
[27]谭凯炎,杨晓光,任三学,等.高温胁迫对华北地区冬小麦灌浆及产量的影响[J].生态学报,2015,35(19):6355-6361.Tan K Y,Yang X G,Ren S X,et al.Yield impact of high temperature stress at the grain filling stage of winter wheat[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2015,35(19):6355-6361.(in Chinese)
[28]Tan K Y,Fang S B,Zhou G S,et al.Responses of irrigated winter wheat yield in North China to increased temperature and elevated CO2 concentration[J].J.Meteorol.Res.,2015,29:691-702.
[29]金之庆,方娟,葛道阔,等.气候变化影响我国冬小麦生产之前瞻[J].作物学报,1994,20(2):186-197.Jin Z Q,Fang J,Ge D K,et al.Prospect to the impacts of climate change on winter wheat production in China[J].Acta Agronomica Sinica,1994,20(2):186-197.(in Chinese)
[30]杜莉,李燕,王志伟.我国西北冬小麦生长发育对气候变化响应分析[J].山西农业科学,2011,39(8):872-876.Du L,Li Y,Wang Z W.Analysis on response of the winter wheat growth to global climate change in Northwest China[J].Journal of Shanxi Agricultural Sciences,2011,39(8):872-876.(in Chinese)