国际生产分割生产率效应的空间溢出——基于跨国空间面板杜宾模型的实证分析
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摘要
考虑到国际生产网络中的各个国家通过横向分工与纵向分工相互影响,从空间维度探讨了参与国际生产分割对国家(地区)生产率的影响,并结合WIOD数据库中的世界投入产出表与社会经济核算数据,采用静态和动态等多种空间权重矩阵设定的空间面板杜宾模型实证检验世界39个国家(地区)参与国际生产分割对生产率的空间溢出效应。结果表明:参与国际生产分割不仅能够产生显著的地区内溢出效应,也能产生积极的空间溢出效应。通过将生产率指数分解成"技术效应"与"资源配置效应"进行进一步研究发现,参与国际生产分割不仅对国家(地区)技术进步产生积极的空间溢出效应,也能够通过资源再配置渠道产生积极的空间溢出,但地区内溢出效应主要通过技术进步渠道传递。考虑到不同的参与环节可能产生差异性影响,利用Ti VA数据研究发现,国际生产分割上游参与度对国家(地区)生产率产生显著负向的空间溢出,而国际生产分割下游参与度对国家(地区)生产率则具有积极的空间溢出。总体而言,从空间维度进一步认识了不同国家(地区)参与国际生产分割的生产率效应,在一定程度上丰富了现有关于生产分割对生产率影响研究的文献。
Considering the various countries in the international production networks interact through vertical and horizontal division of labor division,this paper explores the effect of international production fragmentation on national( regional)productivity from spatial dimension,and employs the Spatial Dubin Model( SDM) with static and dynamic spatial weight matrix to empirically investigate the spatial spillover effect of international production fragmentation on national( regional) productivity of 39 countries,combining world input-output table and social economic accounting data of WIOD. The results show that participating in international production fragmentation not only produces significant regional spillover effects,but also produces positive spatial spillover effects. Further research through the decomposition of productivity index into "technical effect"and "resource allocation effect"shows that participation in international production segmentation not only produces positive spillover effects on national( regional) technical progress,but also generates positive spillover effect through resource reallocation,although the regional spillover effects is mainly through technological advances. Furthermore,considering the participation of different links may produce differences in effects,this paper uses Ti VA data to find that upstream participation in international production division has negative spatial spillover effects on national( regional) productivity,but downstream participation has positive spatial spillover effects. In general,this paper further recognizes the productivity effects of different countries( regions) participating in international production segmentation from the spatial dimension,and enriches the existing literature on the effects of international production fragmentation on productivity to a certain extent.
Considering the various countries in the international production networks interact through vertical and horizontal division of labor division,this paper explores the effect of international production fragmentation on national( regional)productivity from spatial dimension,and employs the Spatial Dubin Model( SDM) with static and dynamic spatial weight matrix to empirically investigate the spatial spillover effect of international production fragmentation on national( regional) productivity of 39 countries,combining world input-output table and social economic accounting data of WIOD. The results show that participating in international production fragmentation not only produces significant regional spillover effects,but also produces positive spatial spillover effects. Further research through the decomposition of productivity index into "technical effect"and "resource allocation effect"shows that participation in international production segmentation not only produces positive spillover effects on national( regional) technical progress,but also generates positive spillover effect through resource reallocation,although the regional spillover effects is mainly through technological advances. Furthermore,considering the participation of different links may produce differences in effects,this paper uses Ti VA data to find that upstream participation in international production division has negative spatial spillover effects on national( regional) productivity,but downstream participation has positive spatial spillover effects. In general,this paper further recognizes the productivity effects of different countries( regions) participating in international production segmentation from the spatial dimension,and enriches the existing literature on the effects of international production fragmentation on productivity to a certain extent.
引文
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[2]EGGER H,EGGER P.International outsourcing and the productivity of low-skilled labor in the EU[J].Economic inquiry,2006,44(1):98-108.
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[7]UPWARD R,WANG Z,ZHENG J.Weighting China's export basket:the domestic content and technology intensity of Chinese exports[J].Journal of comparative economics,2013,41(2):527-543.
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[9]王玉燕,林汉川,吕臣.全球价值链嵌入的技术进步效应——来自中国工业面板数据的经验研究[J].中国工业经济,2014(9):65-77.
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[11]FALLY T.Production staging:measurement and facts[R].University of Colorado Boulder working paper,2012.
[12]蔡跃洲,付一夫.全要素生产率增长中的技术效应与结构效应——基于中国宏观和产业数据的测算及分解[J].经济研究,2017(3):72-88.
[13]GEREFFIC G,FERNANDEZ-STARK K.Global value chains analysis:a primer[R].CGGC(Center on Globalization,Governance&Competitiveness)working paper,2011.
[14]谭人友,葛顺奇,刘晨.全球价值链重构与国际竞争格局——基于40个经济体35个行业面板数据的检验[J].世界经济研究,2016(5):87-98.
[15]SHARMA C,MISHRA R K.International trade and performance of firms:unraveling export,import and productivity puzzle[J].Quarterly review of economics and finance,2015,57:61-74.
[16]SEKER M.Importing,exporting,and innovation in developing countries[J].Review of international economics,2012,20(2):299-314.
[17]HUMPHREY J,SCHMITZ H.How does insertion in global value chains affect upgrading in industrial clusters[J].Regional studies,2002,36(9):1017-1027.
[18]KRUGMAN P.Increasing returns and economic geography[J].Journal of political economy,1991,99(3):483-499.
[19]IVARSSON I,ALVSTAM C G.Supplier upgrading in the home-furnishing value chain:an empirical study of IKEA's sourcing in China and south east Asia[J].World development,2010,38(11):1575-1587.
[20]黎峰.增加值视角下的中国国家价值链分工——基于改进的区域投入产出模型[J].中国工业经济,2016(3):52-67.
[21]SCHUMPETER J A.The theory of economic development:an inquiry into profits,capital,credit,interest and the business cycle[M].Cambridge,Mass.:Harvard University Press,1934.
[22]PEREZ-ALEMAN P,SANDILANDS M.Building value at the top and the bottom of global supply chain:MNC-NGO partnerships[J].California management review,2008,51(1):24-49.
[23]刘志彪,郑江淮.价值链上的“馅饼”与“陷阱”[M]∥刘志彪,郑江淮,等.价值链上的中国:长三角选择性开放新战略.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2012.
[24]王敏,冯宗宪.全球价值链、微笑曲线与技术锁定效应——理论解释与跨国经验[J].经济与管理研究,2013(9):45-54.
[25]PIETROBELLI C,SALIOLA F.Power relationship along the value chain:multinational firms,global buyers and performance of local suppliers[J].Cambridge journal of economics,2008,32(6):947-962.
[26]TAGLIONI D,WINKLER D.Turkey's participation and economic upgrading in global value chains[M]//ERDOGˇDU M M,CHRISTIANSEN B.Handbook of research on comparative economic development perspectives on Europe and the MENA Region.Hershey,Pennsylvania:Hershey Business Science Reference,IGI Global,2016.
[27]SIRKIN H L,ZINSER M,HOHNER D.Made in America,again:why manufacturing will return to the U.S.[R].Boston consulting group report,2011.
[28]ANSELIN L.Spatial econometrics:methods and models[M].Dordrecht:Springer,1988.
[29]白俊红,蒋伏心.协同创新、空间关联与区域创新绩效[J].经济研究,2015(7):174-187.
[30]倪红福,龚六堂,夏杰长.生产分割的演进路径及其影响因素——基于生产阶段数的考察[J].管理世界,2016(4):10-23.
[31]COSTINOT A,OLDENSKI L,RAUCH J.Adaptation and the boundary of multinational firms[J].Review of economics and statistics,2011,93(1):298-308.
[32]ANTRS P.Firms,contracts,and trade structure[J].Quarterly journal of economics,2003,118(4):1375-1418.
[33]LESAGE J,PACE R K.Introduction to spatial econometrics[M].Boca Raton,Florida:CRC Press,2009.
[34]TEBALDI E,ELMSLIE B.Does institutional quality impact innovation?Evidence from cross-country patent grant data[J].Applied economics,2013,45(7):887-900.
[35]MASSELL B F.A disaggregated view of technical change[J].Journal of political economy,1961,69(6):547-557.
[36]NGAI L R,PISSARIDES C A.Structural change in a multisector model of growth[J].American economic review,2007,97(1):429-443.
[37]ANTRS P,CHOR D,FALLY T,et al.Measuring the upstreamness of production and trade flows[J].American economic review,2012,102(3):412-416.
[38]余泳泽,刘大勇,宣烨.生产性服务业集聚对制造业生产效率的外溢效应及其衰减边界——基于空间计量模型的实证分析[J].金融研究,2016(2):23-36.
[39]崔焕金,张强.全球价值链驱动模式的产业升级效应——对中国工业部门的实证研究[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2012(1):32-39.
(1)为减轻孤岛对回归结果的影响,在运用空间邻接权重矩阵回归时,将删除与样本中其他任何国家(地区)都不接壤的国家(地区),分别是澳大利亚、巴西、塞浦路斯、印度尼西亚、日本、韩国、马耳他以及中国台湾。
(2)因中国台湾缺失某些数据,故将其剔除。
[2]EGGER H,EGGER P.International outsourcing and the productivity of low-skilled labor in the EU[J].Economic inquiry,2006,44(1):98-108.
[3]AMITI M,WEI S J.Service offshoring and productivity:evidence from the US[J].World economy,2009,32(2):203-220.
[4]BALDWIN J R,YAN B.Global value chains and the productivity of Canadian manufacturing firms[R].Statistics Canada economic analysis research paper,2014,No.11F0027M-090.
[5]唐东波.垂直专业化分工与劳动生产率:一个全球化视角的研究[J].世界经济,2014(11):25-52.
[6]吕越,吕云龙.全球价值链嵌入会改善制造业企业的生产效率吗——基于双重稳健—倾向得分加权估计[J].财贸经济,2016(3):109-122.
[7]UPWARD R,WANG Z,ZHENG J.Weighting China's export basket:the domestic content and technology intensity of Chinese exports[J].Journal of comparative economics,2013,41(2):527-543.
[8]刘庆林,高越,韩军伟.国际生产分割的生产率效应[J].经济研究,2010(2):32-43.
[9]王玉燕,林汉川,吕臣.全球价值链嵌入的技术进步效应——来自中国工业面板数据的经验研究[J].中国工业经济,2014(9):65-77.
[10]邵朝对,苏丹妮.全球价值链生产率效应的空间溢出[J].中国工业经济,2017(4):94-114.
[11]FALLY T.Production staging:measurement and facts[R].University of Colorado Boulder working paper,2012.
[12]蔡跃洲,付一夫.全要素生产率增长中的技术效应与结构效应——基于中国宏观和产业数据的测算及分解[J].经济研究,2017(3):72-88.
[13]GEREFFIC G,FERNANDEZ-STARK K.Global value chains analysis:a primer[R].CGGC(Center on Globalization,Governance&Competitiveness)working paper,2011.
[14]谭人友,葛顺奇,刘晨.全球价值链重构与国际竞争格局——基于40个经济体35个行业面板数据的检验[J].世界经济研究,2016(5):87-98.
[15]SHARMA C,MISHRA R K.International trade and performance of firms:unraveling export,import and productivity puzzle[J].Quarterly review of economics and finance,2015,57:61-74.
[16]SEKER M.Importing,exporting,and innovation in developing countries[J].Review of international economics,2012,20(2):299-314.
[17]HUMPHREY J,SCHMITZ H.How does insertion in global value chains affect upgrading in industrial clusters[J].Regional studies,2002,36(9):1017-1027.
[18]KRUGMAN P.Increasing returns and economic geography[J].Journal of political economy,1991,99(3):483-499.
[19]IVARSSON I,ALVSTAM C G.Supplier upgrading in the home-furnishing value chain:an empirical study of IKEA's sourcing in China and south east Asia[J].World development,2010,38(11):1575-1587.
[20]黎峰.增加值视角下的中国国家价值链分工——基于改进的区域投入产出模型[J].中国工业经济,2016(3):52-67.
[21]SCHUMPETER J A.The theory of economic development:an inquiry into profits,capital,credit,interest and the business cycle[M].Cambridge,Mass.:Harvard University Press,1934.
[22]PEREZ-ALEMAN P,SANDILANDS M.Building value at the top and the bottom of global supply chain:MNC-NGO partnerships[J].California management review,2008,51(1):24-49.
[23]刘志彪,郑江淮.价值链上的“馅饼”与“陷阱”[M]∥刘志彪,郑江淮,等.价值链上的中国:长三角选择性开放新战略.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2012.
[24]王敏,冯宗宪.全球价值链、微笑曲线与技术锁定效应——理论解释与跨国经验[J].经济与管理研究,2013(9):45-54.
[25]PIETROBELLI C,SALIOLA F.Power relationship along the value chain:multinational firms,global buyers and performance of local suppliers[J].Cambridge journal of economics,2008,32(6):947-962.
[26]TAGLIONI D,WINKLER D.Turkey's participation and economic upgrading in global value chains[M]//ERDOGˇDU M M,CHRISTIANSEN B.Handbook of research on comparative economic development perspectives on Europe and the MENA Region.Hershey,Pennsylvania:Hershey Business Science Reference,IGI Global,2016.
[27]SIRKIN H L,ZINSER M,HOHNER D.Made in America,again:why manufacturing will return to the U.S.[R].Boston consulting group report,2011.
[28]ANSELIN L.Spatial econometrics:methods and models[M].Dordrecht:Springer,1988.
[29]白俊红,蒋伏心.协同创新、空间关联与区域创新绩效[J].经济研究,2015(7):174-187.
[30]倪红福,龚六堂,夏杰长.生产分割的演进路径及其影响因素——基于生产阶段数的考察[J].管理世界,2016(4):10-23.
[31]COSTINOT A,OLDENSKI L,RAUCH J.Adaptation and the boundary of multinational firms[J].Review of economics and statistics,2011,93(1):298-308.
[32]ANTRS P.Firms,contracts,and trade structure[J].Quarterly journal of economics,2003,118(4):1375-1418.
[33]LESAGE J,PACE R K.Introduction to spatial econometrics[M].Boca Raton,Florida:CRC Press,2009.
[34]TEBALDI E,ELMSLIE B.Does institutional quality impact innovation?Evidence from cross-country patent grant data[J].Applied economics,2013,45(7):887-900.
[35]MASSELL B F.A disaggregated view of technical change[J].Journal of political economy,1961,69(6):547-557.
[36]NGAI L R,PISSARIDES C A.Structural change in a multisector model of growth[J].American economic review,2007,97(1):429-443.
[37]ANTRS P,CHOR D,FALLY T,et al.Measuring the upstreamness of production and trade flows[J].American economic review,2012,102(3):412-416.
[38]余泳泽,刘大勇,宣烨.生产性服务业集聚对制造业生产效率的外溢效应及其衰减边界——基于空间计量模型的实证分析[J].金融研究,2016(2):23-36.
[39]崔焕金,张强.全球价值链驱动模式的产业升级效应——对中国工业部门的实证研究[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2012(1):32-39.
(1)为减轻孤岛对回归结果的影响,在运用空间邻接权重矩阵回归时,将删除与样本中其他任何国家(地区)都不接壤的国家(地区),分别是澳大利亚、巴西、塞浦路斯、印度尼西亚、日本、韩国、马耳他以及中国台湾。
(2)因中国台湾缺失某些数据,故将其剔除。