基于Copula函数的甘肃河东短时强降水特征分析
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摘要
利用1960—2014年兰州、临夏、合作、定西、武都、天水、平凉和西峰逐分钟降水资料,分析甘肃河东强降水频次的时空分布特征,建立基于Copula函数的持续时间和过程雨量的联合分布,基于该函数开展强降水发生概率分析研究。结果表明:(1)甘肃河东近55年来平均强降水频次为1. 64次/(a·站),主要特征为持续时间短、过程雨量小,平均持续时间为2. 88 h,过程雨量为23. 4 mm,持续时间小于1 h的概率高达13. 4%;(2)强降水主要发生在汛期(4—9月),月变化服从正态分布,墨西哥帽小波分析表明频次存在着显著的22～23 a和13～15 a的年代际和3～7 a的年际变化;(3)强降水发生概率从大到小依次为平凉、西峰、天水、定西、武都、临夏、兰州和合作,相应的陇东最大,陇南次之,中部地区最小。
Based on minutely precipitation collected from Lanzhou, Linxia, Hezuo, Dingxi, Wudu, Tianshui, Pingliang and Xifeng weather stations in Hedong Area of Gansu Province during 1960 — 2014, the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of heavy rainfall frequencies are analyzed. Besides, the risk analysis on duration and accumulated precipitation is obtained by Copula function based on a bivariate Copu-la distribution model for heavy rainfall variables. The results show that:(1) The main characteristics of heavy rainfall in Hedong Area during recent 55 years are short duration and low accumulated precipitation.The occurring frequency is 1. 64 time/(a · station), average duration is 2. 88 h, average accumulated precipitation is about 23. 4 mm and the probability of duration less than 1 h is up to 13. 4%.(2) Heavy rainfall occurs mainly from April to September, and the monthly variation is in the normal distribution.The Mexico Hat wavelet analysis shows that there are obviously interdecadal changes of 22 — 23 years and 13 —15 years, and interannual changes 3 — 7 years in the heavy rainfall.(3) The frequency of heavy rainfall from large to small is Pingliang, Xifeng, Tianshui, Dingxi, Wudu, Linxia, Lanzhou and Hezuo in order.Correspondingly, the maximum frequency occurrs in eastern Gansu, second in southern Gansu, and the smallest central Gansu.
Based on minutely precipitation collected from Lanzhou, Linxia, Hezuo, Dingxi, Wudu, Tianshui, Pingliang and Xifeng weather stations in Hedong Area of Gansu Province during 1960 — 2014, the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of heavy rainfall frequencies are analyzed. Besides, the risk analysis on duration and accumulated precipitation is obtained by Copula function based on a bivariate Copu-la distribution model for heavy rainfall variables. The results show that:(1) The main characteristics of heavy rainfall in Hedong Area during recent 55 years are short duration and low accumulated precipitation.The occurring frequency is 1. 64 time/(a · station), average duration is 2. 88 h, average accumulated precipitation is about 23. 4 mm and the probability of duration less than 1 h is up to 13. 4%.(2) Heavy rainfall occurs mainly from April to September, and the monthly variation is in the normal distribution.The Mexico Hat wavelet analysis shows that there are obviously interdecadal changes of 22 — 23 years and 13 —15 years, and interannual changes 3 — 7 years in the heavy rainfall.(3) The frequency of heavy rainfall from large to small is Pingliang, Xifeng, Tianshui, Dingxi, Wudu, Linxia, Lanzhou and Hezuo in order.Correspondingly, the maximum frequency occurrs in eastern Gansu, second in southern Gansu, and the smallest central Gansu.
引文
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王丛梅,俞小鼎,李芷霞,等,2017.太行山地形影响下的极端短时强降水分析[J].气象,43(4):425-433. Wang C M,Yu X D,Li Z X,et al,2017. Investigation of extreme flash-rain events on the impact of Taihang Mountain[J]. Meteor Mon,43(4):425-433(in Chinese).
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杨波,孙继松,毛旭,等,2016.北京地区短时强降水过程的多尺度环流特征[J].气象学报,74(6):919-934. Yang B,Sun J S,Mao X,et al,2016. Multi-scale characteristics of atmospheric circulation related to short-time strong rainfall events in Beijing[J]. ActaMeteor Sin,74(6):919-934(in Chinese).
杨萍,肖子牛,石文静,2017.基于小时降水资料研究北京地区降水的精细化特征[J].大气科学,41(3):475-489. Yang P,Xiao Z N,Shi W J,2017. Fine-scale characteristics of rainfall in Beijing urban area based on a high-density autonomous weather stations(AWS)dataset[J]. Chin J Atmos Sci, 41(3):475-489(in Chinese).
杨小银,宋广宁,付培健,2013.“5. 10”岷县暴雨灾害天气过程的数值模拟和诊断分析[J].高原气象,32(3):798-805. Yang X Y,Song G N,Fu P J,2013. Simulation and diagnostic analysis of'5.10'rainstorm disaster weather process in Minxian of Gansu[J].Plateau Meteor,32(3):798-805(in Chinese).
张强,李剑锋,陈晓宏,等,2011.基于Copula函数的新疆极端降水概率时空变化特征[J].地理学报,66(1):3-12. Zhang Q,Li J F,Chen X H,et al,2011. Spatial variability of probability distribution of extreme precipitation in Xinjiang[J]. Acta Geogr Sin,66(1):3-12(in Chinese).
张玉虎,刘凯利,陈秋华,等,2014.区域气象干旱特征多变量Copula分析——以阿克苏河流域为例[J].地理科学,34(12):1480-1487. Zhang Y H,Liu K L, Chen Q H,et al,2014. Bivariate probability distribution of meteorological drought characteristics in the Aksu Basin using Copula[J]. Acta Geogr Sin, 34(12):1480-1487(in Chinese).
张之贤,张强,赵庆云,等,2013.“8. 8”舟曲特大山洪泥石流灾害天气特征分析[J].高原气象,32(1):290-297. Zhang Z X,Zhang Q,Zhao Q Y,et al,2013. Analyses on disaster weather characteristics of masssive mudslide in Zhouqu, Gansu on 8 August 2010[J]. Plateau Meteor,32(1):290-297(in Chinese).
周念清,赵露,沈新平,2014.基于Copula函数的洞庭湖流域水沙丰枯遭遇频率分析[J].地理科学,34(2):242-248. Zhou N Q,Zhao L,Shen X P,2014. Copula-based probability evaluation of richpoor runoff and sediment encounter in Dongting Lake Basin[J].Acta Geog Sin,34(2):242-248(in Chinese).
De Michele C,Salvadori G,2003. A generalized Pareto intensity-duration model of storm rainfall exploiting 2-copulars[J]. J Geophys Res, 108(D2):4067.
Kim Y O,Seo S B,Jang O J,2012. Flood risk assessment using regional regression analysis[J]. Nat Hazards,63(2):1203-1217.
Rauf U F A,Zeephongsekul P,2014. Copula based analysis of rainfall severity and duration:a case study[J]. Theor Appl Climatol,115(112):153-166.
Vandenberghe S,Verhoest N E C,Onof C,et al,2011. A comparative copula-based bivariate frequency analysis of observed and simulated storm events:a case study on Bartlett-Lewis modeled rainfall[J]. Water Resour Res,47(7):W07529.
Zhang L,Singh V P,2007. Bivariate rainfall frequency distributions using Archimedean copulas[J]. J Hydrol,332(1-2):93-109.
曹伟华,梁旭东,赵晗萍,等,2016.基于Copula函数的北京强降水频率及危险性分析[J].气象学报,74(5):772-783. Cao W H,Liang X D,Zhao H P,et al,2016. Copula-based frequency analy-sis and its application in hazard risk assessment of heavy rainfall in Beijing[J]. Acta Meteor Sin,74(5):772-783(in Chinese).
陈元昭,俞小鼎,陈训来,2016.珠江三角洲地区重大短时强降水的基本流型与环境参量特征[J].气象,42(2):144-155. Chen Y Z,Yu X D,Chen X L,et al,2016. Characteristics of short-time severe rainfall events based on weather flow and key environmental parameters in Pearl River Delta[J]. Meteor Mon,42(2):144-155(in Chinese).
董旭光,顾伟宗,曹洁,等,2017.山东省汛期小时极端强降水分布和变化特征[J].气象,43(8):953-961. Dong X G,Gu W Z,Cao J,et al,2017. Variation features of hourly precipitation in Shandong Province in flood season during 1961—2012[J]. Meteor Mon,43(8):953-961(in Chinese).
郭爱军,黄强,畅建霞,等,2015.基于Copula函数的泾河流域水沙关系演变特征分析[J].自然资源学报,30(4):673-683.Guo A J,Huang Q,Chang J X,et al,2015. Variation of relationship between runoff and sediment based on Copula function in the Jinghe River Basin[J]. J Nat Res,30(4):673-683(in Chinese).
李强,邓承之,张勇,等,2017. 1980—2012年5—9月川渝盆地小时强降水特征研究[J].气象,43(9):1073-1083. Li Q,Deng C Z,Zhang Y,et al,2017. Study on spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of hourly heavy rainfall in Sichuan and Chongqing from May to September during 1980-2012[J]. Meteor Mon,43(9):1073-1083(in Chinese).
刘晓云,王劲松,李耀辉,等,2015.基于Copula函数的中国南方干旱风险特征研究[J].气象学报,73(6):1080-1091. Liu X Y,Wang J S,Li Y H,et al,2015. Characteristics of drought risk in southern China based on the Copula function[J]. Acta Meteor Sin,73(6):1080-1091(in Chinese).
曲晓波,张涛,刘鑫华,等,2010.舟曲“8. 8”特大山洪泥石流灾害气象成因分析[J].气象,36(10):102-105. Qu X B,Zhang T,Liu X H,et al,2010. Analysis on the meteorological causes for the 8August 2010 massive mudslide in Zhouqu,Gansu Province[J].Meteor Mon,36(10):102-105(in Chinese).
王丛梅,俞小鼎,李芷霞,等,2017.太行山地形影响下的极端短时强降水分析[J].气象,43(4):425-433. Wang C M,Yu X D,Li Z X,et al,2017. Investigation of extreme flash-rain events on the impact of Taihang Mountain[J]. Meteor Mon,43(4):425-433(in Chinese).
伍红雨,李春梅,刘蔚琴,2017. 1961—2014年广东小时强降水的变化特征[J].气象,43(3):305-314. Wu H Y,Li C M,Liu W Q,2017. Variation characteristics of hourly heavy precipitation in Guangdong during 1961—2014[J]. Meteor Mon,43(3):305-314(in Chinese).
杨波,孙继松,毛旭,等,2016.北京地区短时强降水过程的多尺度环流特征[J].气象学报,74(6):919-934. Yang B,Sun J S,Mao X,et al,2016. Multi-scale characteristics of atmospheric circulation related to short-time strong rainfall events in Beijing[J]. ActaMeteor Sin,74(6):919-934(in Chinese).
杨萍,肖子牛,石文静,2017.基于小时降水资料研究北京地区降水的精细化特征[J].大气科学,41(3):475-489. Yang P,Xiao Z N,Shi W J,2017. Fine-scale characteristics of rainfall in Beijing urban area based on a high-density autonomous weather stations(AWS)dataset[J]. Chin J Atmos Sci, 41(3):475-489(in Chinese).
杨小银,宋广宁,付培健,2013.“5. 10”岷县暴雨灾害天气过程的数值模拟和诊断分析[J].高原气象,32(3):798-805. Yang X Y,Song G N,Fu P J,2013. Simulation and diagnostic analysis of'5.10'rainstorm disaster weather process in Minxian of Gansu[J].Plateau Meteor,32(3):798-805(in Chinese).
张强,李剑锋,陈晓宏,等,2011.基于Copula函数的新疆极端降水概率时空变化特征[J].地理学报,66(1):3-12. Zhang Q,Li J F,Chen X H,et al,2011. Spatial variability of probability distribution of extreme precipitation in Xinjiang[J]. Acta Geogr Sin,66(1):3-12(in Chinese).
张玉虎,刘凯利,陈秋华,等,2014.区域气象干旱特征多变量Copula分析——以阿克苏河流域为例[J].地理科学,34(12):1480-1487. Zhang Y H,Liu K L, Chen Q H,et al,2014. Bivariate probability distribution of meteorological drought characteristics in the Aksu Basin using Copula[J]. Acta Geogr Sin, 34(12):1480-1487(in Chinese).
张之贤,张强,赵庆云,等,2013.“8. 8”舟曲特大山洪泥石流灾害天气特征分析[J].高原气象,32(1):290-297. Zhang Z X,Zhang Q,Zhao Q Y,et al,2013. Analyses on disaster weather characteristics of masssive mudslide in Zhouqu, Gansu on 8 August 2010[J]. Plateau Meteor,32(1):290-297(in Chinese).
周念清,赵露,沈新平,2014.基于Copula函数的洞庭湖流域水沙丰枯遭遇频率分析[J].地理科学,34(2):242-248. Zhou N Q,Zhao L,Shen X P,2014. Copula-based probability evaluation of richpoor runoff and sediment encounter in Dongting Lake Basin[J].Acta Geog Sin,34(2):242-248(in Chinese).
De Michele C,Salvadori G,2003. A generalized Pareto intensity-duration model of storm rainfall exploiting 2-copulars[J]. J Geophys Res, 108(D2):4067.
Kim Y O,Seo S B,Jang O J,2012. Flood risk assessment using regional regression analysis[J]. Nat Hazards,63(2):1203-1217.
Rauf U F A,Zeephongsekul P,2014. Copula based analysis of rainfall severity and duration:a case study[J]. Theor Appl Climatol,115(112):153-166.
Vandenberghe S,Verhoest N E C,Onof C,et al,2011. A comparative copula-based bivariate frequency analysis of observed and simulated storm events:a case study on Bartlett-Lewis modeled rainfall[J]. Water Resour Res,47(7):W07529.
Zhang L,Singh V P,2007. Bivariate rainfall frequency distributions using Archimedean copulas[J]. J Hydrol,332(1-2):93-109.