碳交易的减排及绿色发展效应研究
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摘要
面临来自全球气候变化加剧及国内环境污染恶化的双重压力,中国逐步明确了采用市场化手段来提高气候、环境治理水平,碳交易便为其典型代表,然而目前统筹考虑碳交易的碳减排及绿色协同发展效应的研究却相对欠缺。为此,本文以碳交易试点政策为例,区分碳交易的减排及区域绿色发展效应,分别构建碳排放强度和非期望产出包含全域排放物及区域污染物的曼奎斯特—卢恩伯格指数,基于2008—2015年30个省级行政区面板数据,采用双重差分法实证检验,并进一步检验了协同路径和作用机制。结果发现:①中国碳交易政策在促进了试点地区碳排放强度下降的同时,还促进了试点地区整体绿色发展;②中国碳交易政策的区域污染物协同减排效果主要通过协同减排SO_2实现;③中国碳交易政策实现碳减排及区域绿色发展的主要作用机制为技术升级。这些结论说明:应继续扎实推进全国碳交易市场建设,在实现全球碳减排的目标框架下同时促进区域环境改善;充分考虑碳交易与排污权交易的协同作用,在进行温室气体和区域污染物的"协同减排控制"中,综合考虑协同效应和减排成本,以达到用最低成本实现碳减排和区域污染物减排的双重目标;多手段并行推动绿色发展,除积极吸取碳交易试点阶段经验教训外,还应联合其他多项环境保护政策共同协作、相互补充,充分发挥"看不见的手"的市场调节作用和政府的总体把控能力,共同促进区域全面绿色高质量发展。
China has faced the dual pressures of global climate change and deterioration of domestic environment,gradually clearly-defined that the market mechanism is an effective way to improve the level of climate and environmental governance,carbon emission trading is a typical form,however,the current research on the comprehensive consideration of its carbon emission reduction and green development effects are relatively deficient. Therefore,this paper takes the carbon emission trading pilot policy as an example,differentiate its carbon emission reduction and regional green development effects,separately constructed the carbon intensity and the Malmquist-Luenberger index,which bad outputs containing global emissions and regional pollutants,based on the panel data of 30 provincial and regions from 2008 to 2015,using double difference method to analyze the influence of carbon emission trading policy on them,and further examine the synergy path and mechanism. The results showed that: ①China's carbon emission trading policy has promoted the decline in carbon intensity in the pilot areas while also promoting the green development of the pilot areas; ② The synergistic emission reduction effect is mainly achieved through SO_2; ③The main mechanism that China's carbon emission trading policy simultaneously achieve carbon emission reduction and regional green development is technological upgrading. These conclusions indicate that: China should continue to promote the construction of the national carbon trading market,promote regional environmental improvements while achieving the goal of global carbon reduction; Fully consider the synergy between carbon emission trading and pollutant emissions trading,in the process of ‘collaborative reduction'the greenhouse gases and regional pollutants,comprehensive consideration the synergies and abatement costs to achieve the dual goal at the lowest cost; Adopting various means to promote green development,in addition to actively absorbing the experience and lessons of the pilot phase of carbon trading,it should also work together with other environmental protection policies to complement each other,give full play to its‘invisible hand'market adjustment ability and the government's overall control ability,and jointly promote regional green high quality development.
China has faced the dual pressures of global climate change and deterioration of domestic environment,gradually clearly-defined that the market mechanism is an effective way to improve the level of climate and environmental governance,carbon emission trading is a typical form,however,the current research on the comprehensive consideration of its carbon emission reduction and green development effects are relatively deficient. Therefore,this paper takes the carbon emission trading pilot policy as an example,differentiate its carbon emission reduction and regional green development effects,separately constructed the carbon intensity and the Malmquist-Luenberger index,which bad outputs containing global emissions and regional pollutants,based on the panel data of 30 provincial and regions from 2008 to 2015,using double difference method to analyze the influence of carbon emission trading policy on them,and further examine the synergy path and mechanism. The results showed that: ①China's carbon emission trading policy has promoted the decline in carbon intensity in the pilot areas while also promoting the green development of the pilot areas; ② The synergistic emission reduction effect is mainly achieved through SO_2; ③The main mechanism that China's carbon emission trading policy simultaneously achieve carbon emission reduction and regional green development is technological upgrading. These conclusions indicate that: China should continue to promote the construction of the national carbon trading market,promote regional environmental improvements while achieving the goal of global carbon reduction; Fully consider the synergy between carbon emission trading and pollutant emissions trading,in the process of ‘collaborative reduction'the greenhouse gases and regional pollutants,comprehensive consideration the synergies and abatement costs to achieve the dual goal at the lowest cost; Adopting various means to promote green development,in addition to actively absorbing the experience and lessons of the pilot phase of carbon trading,it should also work together with other environmental protection policies to complement each other,give full play to its‘invisible hand'market adjustment ability and the government's overall control ability,and jointly promote regional green high quality development.
引文
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[13]石敏俊,周晟吕.低碳技术发展对中国实现减排目标的作用[J].管理评论,2010,22(6):48-53,47.
[14]HE K,LEI Y,PAN X,et al.Co-benefits from energy policies in China[J].Energy,2010,35(11):4265-4272.
[15]毛显强,邢有凯,胡涛,等.中国电力行业硫、氮、碳协同减排的环境经济路径分析[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(4):748-756.
[16]陈超凡.中国工业绿色全要素生产率及其影响因素---基于ML生产率指数及动态面板模型的实证研究[J].统计研究,2016,33(3):53-62.
[17]齐绍洲,程思.妥善处理碳市场建设中的“五个不”[N].光明日报,2016-12-07(15).
[18]刘瑞明,赵仁杰.西部大开发:增长驱动还是政策陷阱---基于PSM-DID方法的研究[J].中国工业经济,2015(6):32-43.
[2]涂正革,谌仁俊.排污权交易机制在中国能否实现波特效应?[J].经济研究,2015,50(7):160-173.
[3]BoHRINGER C,WELSCH H.Contraction and convergence of carbon emissions:an intertemporal multi-region CGE analysis[J].Journal of policy modeling,2004,26(1):21-39.
[4]孙睿,况丹,常冬勤.碳交易的“能源-经济-环境”影响及碳价合理区间测算[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(7):82-90.
[5]汤铃,武佳倩,戴伟,等.碳交易机制对中国经济与环境的影响[J].系统工程学报,2014,29(5):701-712.
[6]谭秀杰,刘宇,王毅.湖北碳交易试点的经济环境影响研究---基于中国多区域一般均衡模型Term CO2[J].武汉大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2016,69(2):64-72.
[7]李广明,张维洁.中国碳交易下的工业碳排放与减排机制研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(10):141-148.
[8]CHENG B,DAI H,WANG P,et al.Impacts of carbon trading scheme on air pollutant emissions in Guangdong Province of China[J].Energy for sustainable development,2015,27:174-185.
[9]FUJIMORI S,MASUI T,MATSUOKA Y.Gains from emission trading under multiple stabilization targets and technological constraints[J].Energy economics,2015,48:306-315.
[10]COASE R H.The problem of social cost[M]//GOPALAKRISHNANC.Classic papers in natural resource economics.London:Palgrave Macmillan,1960:87-137.
[11]SYRI S,AMANN M,CAPROS P,et al.Low-CO2energy pathways and regional air pollution in Europe[J].Energy policy,2001,29(11):871-884.
[12]VAN VUUREN D,COFALA J,EERENS H,et al.Exploring the ancillary benefits of the Kyoto Protocol for air pollution in Europe[J].Energy policy,2006,34(4):444-460.
[13]石敏俊,周晟吕.低碳技术发展对中国实现减排目标的作用[J].管理评论,2010,22(6):48-53,47.
[14]HE K,LEI Y,PAN X,et al.Co-benefits from energy policies in China[J].Energy,2010,35(11):4265-4272.
[15]毛显强,邢有凯,胡涛,等.中国电力行业硫、氮、碳协同减排的环境经济路径分析[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(4):748-756.
[16]陈超凡.中国工业绿色全要素生产率及其影响因素---基于ML生产率指数及动态面板模型的实证研究[J].统计研究,2016,33(3):53-62.
[17]齐绍洲,程思.妥善处理碳市场建设中的“五个不”[N].光明日报,2016-12-07(15).
[18]刘瑞明,赵仁杰.西部大开发:增长驱动还是政策陷阱---基于PSM-DID方法的研究[J].中国工业经济,2015(6):32-43.