行业结构优化的测度及影响因素分析
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摘要
制造业行业结构优化是经济实现可持续发展的重要环节。本文基于MVE原理,测算了各国的最优制造业行业结构,并在此基础上量化了各国现有制造业行业结构与最优行业结构间的距离,分析了影响制造业行业结构优化的因素。本文研究表明,国家金融发展、贸易开放及制度环境是影响制造业行业结构优化的重要因素。基于行业特征的研究发现外部流动性需求高、生产更为分散的行业,其结构优化受金融发展的影响更为显著;对外贸易依赖度高的行业以及所处营商环境更为恶劣的行业分别受国家贸易开放及制度环境优化的影响更大,行业结构调整更为迅速。本文的研究结论为各国以行业结构调整促进经济平稳发展提供了新的思路和改进方向。
Structural optimization of the manufacturing industry is an important part of the economy in achieving long-term sustainable development. Based on the MVE principle, this paper constructs and estimates the optimal manufacturing structure in various countries. Based on this, the distance between the existing manufacturing structure and the optimal one in each country is quantified and the factors that affect the structural optimization of the manufacturing industry are meticulously analyzed. It affirms that the national financial development, trade liberalization and institutional environment are important factors that affect the structural optimization of the manufacturing industry. The study on the industrial characteristics finds that the higher the demand for external liquidity is and the more scattered the production is in the industry, the more significantly its structural optimization is affected by the financial development. And the more dependent the industry is on the external trade and the poorer it is with the business environment, the more it is affected by national trade liberalization and the optimization of the institutional environment and the faster the structural adjustment is in that industry. It concludes that the industrial structural adjustment by various countries provides a new idea and direction for promoting stable economic development, improving the allocation of resources among sub-industries, and escalating the performance of the manufacturing industry.
Structural optimization of the manufacturing industry is an important part of the economy in achieving long-term sustainable development. Based on the MVE principle, this paper constructs and estimates the optimal manufacturing structure in various countries. Based on this, the distance between the existing manufacturing structure and the optimal one in each country is quantified and the factors that affect the structural optimization of the manufacturing industry are meticulously analyzed. It affirms that the national financial development, trade liberalization and institutional environment are important factors that affect the structural optimization of the manufacturing industry. The study on the industrial characteristics finds that the higher the demand for external liquidity is and the more scattered the production is in the industry, the more significantly its structural optimization is affected by the financial development. And the more dependent the industry is on the external trade and the poorer it is with the business environment, the more it is affected by national trade liberalization and the optimization of the institutional environment and the faster the structural adjustment is in that industry. It concludes that the industrial structural adjustment by various countries provides a new idea and direction for promoting stable economic development, improving the allocation of resources among sub-industries, and escalating the performance of the manufacturing industry.
引文
[1]Greenwood J,Jovanovic B.Financial Development,Growth,and the Distribution of Income[R].National Bureau of Economic Research,1989.No.W3189
[2]Almeida H,Wolfenzon D.The Effect of External Finance on the Equilibrium Allocation of Capital[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2005,75(1):133-164.
[3]李青原,李江冰,江春.金融发展与地区实体经济资本配置效率——来自省级工业行业数据的证据[J].经济学 (季刊),2013 (1):527-548.
[4]Wurgler J.Financial Markets and the Allocation of Capital[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2000,58(1):187-214.
[5]Galindo A,Schiantarelli F,Weiss A.Does Financial Liberalization Improve the Allocation of Investment?:Micro-evidence from Developing Countries[J].Journal of Development Economics,2007,83(2):562-587.
[6]Acharya V V,Imbs J,Sturgess J.Finance and Efficiency:Do Bank Branching Regulations Matter?[J].Review of Finance,2010,15(1):135-172.
[7]Manganelli S,Popov A.Financial Development,Sectoral Reallocation,and Volatility:International Evidence[J].Journal of International Economics,2015,96(2):323-337.
[8]Acemoglu D,Antràs P,Helpman E.Contracts and Technology Adoption[J].The American Economic Review,2007,97(3):916-943.
[9]Costinot A.On the Origins of Comparative Advantage[J].Journal of International Economics,2009,77(2):255-264.
[10]Giné X,Love I.Do Reorganization Costs Matter for Efficiency?Evidence from a Bankruptcy Reform in Colombia[J].The Journal of Law and Economics,2010,53(4):833-864.
[11]Jayaratne J,Strahan P E.The Finance-growth Nexus:Evidence from Bank Branch Deregulation[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1996,111(3):639-670.
[12]Beck T,Levine R,Loayza N.Finance and the Sources of Growth[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2000,58(1):261-300.
[13]苏振东,洪玉娟.中国出口企业是否存在 “利润率溢价”?——基于随机占优和广义倾向指数匹配方法的经验研究[J].管理世界,2013 (5):12-34.
[14]刘啟仁,黄建忠.异质出口倾向,学习效应与 “低加成率陷阱”[J].经济研究,2015(12):143-157.
[15]毛其淋,许家云.中间品贸易自由化,制度环境与生产率演化[J].世界经济,2015 (9):80-106.
[16]Feenstra R C,et al.Contractual Versus Non-contractual Trade:The Role of Institutions in China[J].Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,2013,94:281-294.
[17]Baumol W J.Entrepreneurship:Productive,Unproductive,and Destructive[J].Journal of Political Economy,1990,98:893-921.
[18]La Porta R,et al.Law and Finance[R].National Bureau of Economic Research,1996,NO.5661.
[19]Caprio G,Laeven L,Levine R.Governance and Bank Valuation[J].Journal of Financial Intermediation,2007,16(4):584-617.
[20]陈德球,李思飞,钟昀珈.政府质量,投资与资本配置效率[J].世界经济,2012 (3):89-110.
[21]Mishkin F S.Is Monetary Policy Effective During Financial Crises?[R].National Bureau of Economic Research,NO.w14678,2009.
[22]Markowitz H.Portfolio Selection[J].The Journal of Finance,1952,7(1):77-91.
[23]Beck T.The Role of Cinance in Economic Development:Benefits,Risks,and Politics[J].European Banking Center Discussion Paper,2011 (2011-038).
[24]Huang H C,Fang W S,Miller S M.Does Financial Development Volatility Affect Industrial Growth Volatility?[J].International Review of Economics & Finance,2014,29:307-320.
[25]Raddatz C.Liquidity Needs and Vulnerability to Financial Underdevelopment[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2006,80(3):677-722.
[26]朱彤,郝宏杰,秦丽.中国金融发展与对外贸易比较优势关系的经验分析——一种外部融资支持的视角[J].南开经济研究,2007 (3):124-131.
[27]Gupta N,Yuan K.On the Growth Effect of Stock Market Liberalizations[J].Review of Financial Studies,2009,22(11):4715-4752.
[28]Rajan R G,Zingales L.Financial Dependence and Growth[J].The American Economic Review,1998,88(3):559-586.
[29]李宏兵,蔡宏波,胡翔斌.融资约束如何影响中国企业的出口持续时间[J].统计研究,2016(6):30-41.
[30]高运胜,郑乐凯,惠丽霞.融资约束与制造业 GVC 地位提升[J].统计研究,2018(8):11-22.
① CRRA效用函数形式为,相对风险厌恶,为常数。因此该形式的效用函数称为相对风险厌恶不变的效用函数,简写为CRRA函数。
(1)限于篇幅,具体研究见《统计研究》网站所列附件,下同。
(2)选用法制建设、言论自由以及反腐败程度三个变量考察一国的制度建设水平。
(3)与商业银行提供贷款相比,中央银行提供的贷款更容易受到政策指令等的影响,这部分贷款规模的变化不能够准确的反映一国金融体系发展的真实情况。
(4)该指标体系从政治稳定程度(Political Stability,PS)、言论自由(Voice and Accountability,VA)、政府效能(Government Effectiveness,GE)、政府反腐力度(Control of Corruption,CC)、法治水平(Rule of Law,RL)以及监管质量(Regulatory Quality,RQ)六个方面综合反映一国的制度发展水平。
(5)世界银行企业调研主要在发展中国家展开,因此这26个国家以发展中国家为主,他们分别是:AZE、BGR、COL、CZE、DEU、ECU、ESP、EST、GEO、HUN、IDN、IND、IRL、JOR、KGZ、KOR、LVA、MAR、MKD、MWI、MYS、PER、POL、PRT、ROU、SVK、SVN、TUR(此三位代码为ISO 3166版国家标准代码)。
(6)指标的计算和整理中,首先得到各个被调查企业特征指标值,之后运用取中位数的方法,得到行业的特征指标。
(7)世界银行WGI数据库提供了从2002年开始的各年度各国的制度发展水平指标。2002年前提供各国每两年的制度环境水平指标。本文使用2000年各国的制度水平考察2001年对应国家的制度发展水平,余下各年使用世界银行提供的连续数据进行考察。
[2]Almeida H,Wolfenzon D.The Effect of External Finance on the Equilibrium Allocation of Capital[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2005,75(1):133-164.
[3]李青原,李江冰,江春.金融发展与地区实体经济资本配置效率——来自省级工业行业数据的证据[J].经济学 (季刊),2013 (1):527-548.
[4]Wurgler J.Financial Markets and the Allocation of Capital[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2000,58(1):187-214.
[5]Galindo A,Schiantarelli F,Weiss A.Does Financial Liberalization Improve the Allocation of Investment?:Micro-evidence from Developing Countries[J].Journal of Development Economics,2007,83(2):562-587.
[6]Acharya V V,Imbs J,Sturgess J.Finance and Efficiency:Do Bank Branching Regulations Matter?[J].Review of Finance,2010,15(1):135-172.
[7]Manganelli S,Popov A.Financial Development,Sectoral Reallocation,and Volatility:International Evidence[J].Journal of International Economics,2015,96(2):323-337.
[8]Acemoglu D,Antràs P,Helpman E.Contracts and Technology Adoption[J].The American Economic Review,2007,97(3):916-943.
[9]Costinot A.On the Origins of Comparative Advantage[J].Journal of International Economics,2009,77(2):255-264.
[10]Giné X,Love I.Do Reorganization Costs Matter for Efficiency?Evidence from a Bankruptcy Reform in Colombia[J].The Journal of Law and Economics,2010,53(4):833-864.
[11]Jayaratne J,Strahan P E.The Finance-growth Nexus:Evidence from Bank Branch Deregulation[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1996,111(3):639-670.
[12]Beck T,Levine R,Loayza N.Finance and the Sources of Growth[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2000,58(1):261-300.
[13]苏振东,洪玉娟.中国出口企业是否存在 “利润率溢价”?——基于随机占优和广义倾向指数匹配方法的经验研究[J].管理世界,2013 (5):12-34.
[14]刘啟仁,黄建忠.异质出口倾向,学习效应与 “低加成率陷阱”[J].经济研究,2015(12):143-157.
[15]毛其淋,许家云.中间品贸易自由化,制度环境与生产率演化[J].世界经济,2015 (9):80-106.
[16]Feenstra R C,et al.Contractual Versus Non-contractual Trade:The Role of Institutions in China[J].Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,2013,94:281-294.
[17]Baumol W J.Entrepreneurship:Productive,Unproductive,and Destructive[J].Journal of Political Economy,1990,98:893-921.
[18]La Porta R,et al.Law and Finance[R].National Bureau of Economic Research,1996,NO.5661.
[19]Caprio G,Laeven L,Levine R.Governance and Bank Valuation[J].Journal of Financial Intermediation,2007,16(4):584-617.
[20]陈德球,李思飞,钟昀珈.政府质量,投资与资本配置效率[J].世界经济,2012 (3):89-110.
[21]Mishkin F S.Is Monetary Policy Effective During Financial Crises?[R].National Bureau of Economic Research,NO.w14678,2009.
[22]Markowitz H.Portfolio Selection[J].The Journal of Finance,1952,7(1):77-91.
[23]Beck T.The Role of Cinance in Economic Development:Benefits,Risks,and Politics[J].European Banking Center Discussion Paper,2011 (2011-038).
[24]Huang H C,Fang W S,Miller S M.Does Financial Development Volatility Affect Industrial Growth Volatility?[J].International Review of Economics & Finance,2014,29:307-320.
[25]Raddatz C.Liquidity Needs and Vulnerability to Financial Underdevelopment[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2006,80(3):677-722.
[26]朱彤,郝宏杰,秦丽.中国金融发展与对外贸易比较优势关系的经验分析——一种外部融资支持的视角[J].南开经济研究,2007 (3):124-131.
[27]Gupta N,Yuan K.On the Growth Effect of Stock Market Liberalizations[J].Review of Financial Studies,2009,22(11):4715-4752.
[28]Rajan R G,Zingales L.Financial Dependence and Growth[J].The American Economic Review,1998,88(3):559-586.
[29]李宏兵,蔡宏波,胡翔斌.融资约束如何影响中国企业的出口持续时间[J].统计研究,2016(6):30-41.
[30]高运胜,郑乐凯,惠丽霞.融资约束与制造业 GVC 地位提升[J].统计研究,2018(8):11-22.
① CRRA效用函数形式为,相对风险厌恶,为常数。因此该形式的效用函数称为相对风险厌恶不变的效用函数,简写为CRRA函数。
(1)限于篇幅,具体研究见《统计研究》网站所列附件,下同。
(2)选用法制建设、言论自由以及反腐败程度三个变量考察一国的制度建设水平。
(3)与商业银行提供贷款相比,中央银行提供的贷款更容易受到政策指令等的影响,这部分贷款规模的变化不能够准确的反映一国金融体系发展的真实情况。
(4)该指标体系从政治稳定程度(Political Stability,PS)、言论自由(Voice and Accountability,VA)、政府效能(Government Effectiveness,GE)、政府反腐力度(Control of Corruption,CC)、法治水平(Rule of Law,RL)以及监管质量(Regulatory Quality,RQ)六个方面综合反映一国的制度发展水平。
(5)世界银行企业调研主要在发展中国家展开,因此这26个国家以发展中国家为主,他们分别是:AZE、BGR、COL、CZE、DEU、ECU、ESP、EST、GEO、HUN、IDN、IND、IRL、JOR、KGZ、KOR、LVA、MAR、MKD、MWI、MYS、PER、POL、PRT、ROU、SVK、SVN、TUR(此三位代码为ISO 3166版国家标准代码)。
(6)指标的计算和整理中,首先得到各个被调查企业特征指标值,之后运用取中位数的方法,得到行业的特征指标。
(7)世界银行WGI数据库提供了从2002年开始的各年度各国的制度发展水平指标。2002年前提供各国每两年的制度环境水平指标。本文使用2000年各国的制度水平考察2001年对应国家的制度发展水平,余下各年使用世界银行提供的连续数据进行考察。