2013年岷县—漳县M_S6.6地震前水氡浓度的临界慢化现象研究
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摘要
基于临界慢化理论,以2013年7月22日甘肃岷县—漳县M_S6.6地震前南北构造带及邻区水氡浓度观测资料为例,逐一计算了表征临界慢化现象的自相关系数和方差。研究结果表明,2013年岷县—漳县M_S6.6地震前,10个台点水氡浓度资料表现出较明显的临界慢化现象,且出现慢化现象的观测点空间分布具有一定丛集性,慢化持续时间呈现出由南向北迁移的特征。综合分析认为,临界慢化方法可以有效识别水氡资料蕴含的慢化信息,这些早期异常信号对判定前兆异常所处阶段以及深入理解前兆资料变化的物理内涵具有重要的科学意义。
Based on the principle of critical slowing down,we calculated correlation coefficient and variance,respectively,which characterize critical slowing down phenomena.In this case,we took the data of water radon concentration in the North-South Tectonic Zone and nearby areas before the July 22,2013 Minxian-Zhangxian M_S6.6 earthquake as an example to illustrate the phenomena.The results indicate that the water radon concentration at 10 stations had obvious critical slowing down phenomena before the earthquake,and the spatial distribution of observation points with slowing down phenomena has certain clustering.And the slowing down duration is characterized by a shift from the south to the north.It can summarized that the testing method can identify the slowing down information of water radon data effectively,and it is of great significance to determine the stage of precursory anomaly and to improve the understanding observation data changes before earthquakes.
Based on the principle of critical slowing down,we calculated correlation coefficient and variance,respectively,which characterize critical slowing down phenomena.In this case,we took the data of water radon concentration in the North-South Tectonic Zone and nearby areas before the July 22,2013 Minxian-Zhangxian M_S6.6 earthquake as an example to illustrate the phenomena.The results indicate that the water radon concentration at 10 stations had obvious critical slowing down phenomena before the earthquake,and the spatial distribution of observation points with slowing down phenomena has certain clustering.And the slowing down duration is characterized by a shift from the south to the north.It can summarized that the testing method can identify the slowing down information of water radon data effectively,and it is of great significance to determine the stage of precursory anomaly and to improve the understanding observation data changes before earthquakes.
引文
[1]郑文俊,袁道阳,何文贵,等.甘肃东南地区构造活动与2013年岷县—漳县MS6.6级地震孕震机制[J].地球物理学报,2013,56(12):4 058-4 071.
[2]孙蒙,王卫民,王洵,等.2013年7月22日甘肃岷县—漳县MS6.6地震震源破裂过程[J].地球物理学报,2015,58(6):1 909-1 998.
[3]国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪—公元1911年)[M].北京:地震出版社,1995.
[4]何文贵,郑文俊,王爱国,等.临潭—宕昌断裂新活动特征与岷县漳县MS6.6地震关系研究[J].地震工程学报,2013,35(4):751-760.
[5]张辉,王熠熙.2013年7月22日岷县漳县6.6级地震序列震源机制解及其特征分析[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(2):205-206.
[6]刘耀炜,任宏微,张磊,等.鲁甸6.5级地震地下流体典型异常与前兆机理分析[J].地震地质,2015,37(1):307-318.
[7]晏锐,官致君,刘耀炜.川西温泉水温观测及其在芦山MS7.0地震前的异常现象[J].地震学报,2015,37(2):347-356.
[8]付虹,赵小艳.汶川MS8.0地震前云南地区显著前兆观测异常分析[J].地震学报,2013,35(4):477-484.
[9]张彬,方震,刘耀炜,等.云南地区水温异常与地震关系[J].地球科学:中国地质大学学报,2014,39(12):1 880-1 886.
[10]孙小龙,王广才,邵志刚,等.海原断裂带土壤气与地下水地球化学特征研究[J].地学前缘,2016,23(3):140-150.
[11]杨兴悦,王燕,王建荣,等.甘东南地下流体异常与甘肃岷县6.6级地震关系探讨[J].地震工程学报,2013,35(4):808-815.
[12]曹玲玲、王宗礼,李春燕.岷县漳县级地震前天水花牛水氡异常可靠性研究[J].地震工程学报2013,35(4):801-807.
[13]陈雪梅,武银,张璇,等.岷县芦山地震前天水地电阻率井下观测资料异常[J].地震工程学报,2013,35(4):816-818.
[14]周志华,黄辅琼,马玉川.中国大陆井水位观测网对甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震同震响应特征分析[J].2013,35(3):529-534.
[15]张彬,刘耀炜,杨选辉.中国大陆井水温对汶川8.0级、玉树7.1级、芦山7.0级和岷县6.6级地震响应特征的对比研究[J].地震工程学报,2013,27(3):228-235.
[16]晏锐,黄辅琼,顾瑾平.中国大陆7级强震前地下流体前兆时空特征[J].地震,2004,24(1):126-131.
[17]张浪平,余怀忠,尹祥础,等.加卸载响应比方法在结构灾变预测中的应用[J].工程力学,2010,27(3):228-235.
[18]于渌,郝柏林.相变和临界现象[M].北京:科学出版社,1984.
[19]郭增建.临界慢化与地震预报[J].西北地震学报,1989,11(1):68-69.
[20]晏锐,蒋长胜,张浪平.汶川8.0级地震前水氡浓度的临界慢化现象研究[J].地球物理学报,2011,54(7):1 817-1 826.
[21]袁道阳,张培震,刘百篪,等.青藏高原东北缘晚第四纪活动构造的几何图像与构造转换[J].地质学报,2004,78(2):270-278.
[22]Tapponnier P,Xu Z Q,Roger F,et al.Oblique steque stepwise rise and growth of the Tiber plateau[J].Science,2001,294(5 547):1 671-1 677.
[23]张培震,王敏,甘卫军,等.GPS观测的活动断裂滑动速率及其对现今大陆动力作用的制约[J].地学前缘,2003,10(特刊):81-92.
[24]Liang S M,Gan W J,Shen C Z,et al.Three-dimensional velocity field of present-day crustal motion of the Tibetan plateau derived from GPS measurements[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2013,118(10):5 722-5 732.
[25]甘卫军,沈正康,张培震,等.青藏高原地壳水平差异运动的GPS观测研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2004,24(1):29-35.
[26]曹玲玲,王宗礼,刘耀炜.氡迁移机理研究进展概述[J].地震研究,2007,28(3):302-306.
[27]车用太,鱼金子,刘五洲.水氡异常的水动力学机制[J].地震地质,1997,19(4):353-357.
[28]姚玉霞,杨晓鹏,陈兰庆,等.模拟水氡仪与数字化水氡仪对比观测实验[J].地震地磁观测与研究,1997,35(4):182-186.
[29]Benee J R.A nalys is of short time se ries:correeting for autocorrela tion[J].Ecology,1995,76(2):628-639.
[30]Dakos V,Scheffer M,van Nes E H,et al.Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the Unite States of America,2008,105(38):14 308-14 312.
[31]Held H,Kleinen T.Detection of climate system bifureations by degenerate fingerprinting[J].Geophys Res Lett,2004,31:L23207.
[32]卜玉菲,张元生,万永革,等.P波极性揭示的甘东南地区构造应力场特征[J].地震工程学报,2013,35(1):160-165.
[33]刘耀炜,曹玲玲.地震孕育模式与前兆异常机理研究综述[J].国际地震动态,2003,298:9-14.
[34]刘耀炜,牛安福,卢军.强震短期前兆异常特征物理分析和解释的研究进展[J].地震,2004,24(4):57-65.
[35]车用太,鱼金子,杨会年.试论地下水位震前异常的来源、机制与模式[J].地震,1988,25(4):64-71.
[36]Lockner D A.Brittle fracture as an analog to earthquakes:Can acoustic emission be used to develop a viable prediction strategy[J].J Acous Emission,1996,14(3-4):S88-S101.
[37]Lockner D A,Byerlee J D,KuksENKO V,et al.Quasi-static fault growth and shear fracture energy in granite[J].Nature,1991,350(6 313):39-42.
[38]邱泽华,张宝红,池顺良,等.汶川地震前姑咱台观测的异常应变变化[J].中国科学:地球科学,2010,40(8):1 031-1 039.
[39]孙小龙,王广才,晏锐.利用概率密度分布提取流体观测资料中的高频异常信息——以2008年汶川8.0级地震为例[J].地球物理学报,2016.59(5):1 673-1 684.
[2]孙蒙,王卫民,王洵,等.2013年7月22日甘肃岷县—漳县MS6.6地震震源破裂过程[J].地球物理学报,2015,58(6):1 909-1 998.
[3]国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪—公元1911年)[M].北京:地震出版社,1995.
[4]何文贵,郑文俊,王爱国,等.临潭—宕昌断裂新活动特征与岷县漳县MS6.6地震关系研究[J].地震工程学报,2013,35(4):751-760.
[5]张辉,王熠熙.2013年7月22日岷县漳县6.6级地震序列震源机制解及其特征分析[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(2):205-206.
[6]刘耀炜,任宏微,张磊,等.鲁甸6.5级地震地下流体典型异常与前兆机理分析[J].地震地质,2015,37(1):307-318.
[7]晏锐,官致君,刘耀炜.川西温泉水温观测及其在芦山MS7.0地震前的异常现象[J].地震学报,2015,37(2):347-356.
[8]付虹,赵小艳.汶川MS8.0地震前云南地区显著前兆观测异常分析[J].地震学报,2013,35(4):477-484.
[9]张彬,方震,刘耀炜,等.云南地区水温异常与地震关系[J].地球科学:中国地质大学学报,2014,39(12):1 880-1 886.
[10]孙小龙,王广才,邵志刚,等.海原断裂带土壤气与地下水地球化学特征研究[J].地学前缘,2016,23(3):140-150.
[11]杨兴悦,王燕,王建荣,等.甘东南地下流体异常与甘肃岷县6.6级地震关系探讨[J].地震工程学报,2013,35(4):808-815.
[12]曹玲玲、王宗礼,李春燕.岷县漳县级地震前天水花牛水氡异常可靠性研究[J].地震工程学报2013,35(4):801-807.
[13]陈雪梅,武银,张璇,等.岷县芦山地震前天水地电阻率井下观测资料异常[J].地震工程学报,2013,35(4):816-818.
[14]周志华,黄辅琼,马玉川.中国大陆井水位观测网对甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震同震响应特征分析[J].2013,35(3):529-534.
[15]张彬,刘耀炜,杨选辉.中国大陆井水温对汶川8.0级、玉树7.1级、芦山7.0级和岷县6.6级地震响应特征的对比研究[J].地震工程学报,2013,27(3):228-235.
[16]晏锐,黄辅琼,顾瑾平.中国大陆7级强震前地下流体前兆时空特征[J].地震,2004,24(1):126-131.
[17]张浪平,余怀忠,尹祥础,等.加卸载响应比方法在结构灾变预测中的应用[J].工程力学,2010,27(3):228-235.
[18]于渌,郝柏林.相变和临界现象[M].北京:科学出版社,1984.
[19]郭增建.临界慢化与地震预报[J].西北地震学报,1989,11(1):68-69.
[20]晏锐,蒋长胜,张浪平.汶川8.0级地震前水氡浓度的临界慢化现象研究[J].地球物理学报,2011,54(7):1 817-1 826.
[21]袁道阳,张培震,刘百篪,等.青藏高原东北缘晚第四纪活动构造的几何图像与构造转换[J].地质学报,2004,78(2):270-278.
[22]Tapponnier P,Xu Z Q,Roger F,et al.Oblique steque stepwise rise and growth of the Tiber plateau[J].Science,2001,294(5 547):1 671-1 677.
[23]张培震,王敏,甘卫军,等.GPS观测的活动断裂滑动速率及其对现今大陆动力作用的制约[J].地学前缘,2003,10(特刊):81-92.
[24]Liang S M,Gan W J,Shen C Z,et al.Three-dimensional velocity field of present-day crustal motion of the Tibetan plateau derived from GPS measurements[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2013,118(10):5 722-5 732.
[25]甘卫军,沈正康,张培震,等.青藏高原地壳水平差异运动的GPS观测研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2004,24(1):29-35.
[26]曹玲玲,王宗礼,刘耀炜.氡迁移机理研究进展概述[J].地震研究,2007,28(3):302-306.
[27]车用太,鱼金子,刘五洲.水氡异常的水动力学机制[J].地震地质,1997,19(4):353-357.
[28]姚玉霞,杨晓鹏,陈兰庆,等.模拟水氡仪与数字化水氡仪对比观测实验[J].地震地磁观测与研究,1997,35(4):182-186.
[29]Benee J R.A nalys is of short time se ries:correeting for autocorrela tion[J].Ecology,1995,76(2):628-639.
[30]Dakos V,Scheffer M,van Nes E H,et al.Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the Unite States of America,2008,105(38):14 308-14 312.
[31]Held H,Kleinen T.Detection of climate system bifureations by degenerate fingerprinting[J].Geophys Res Lett,2004,31:L23207.
[32]卜玉菲,张元生,万永革,等.P波极性揭示的甘东南地区构造应力场特征[J].地震工程学报,2013,35(1):160-165.
[33]刘耀炜,曹玲玲.地震孕育模式与前兆异常机理研究综述[J].国际地震动态,2003,298:9-14.
[34]刘耀炜,牛安福,卢军.强震短期前兆异常特征物理分析和解释的研究进展[J].地震,2004,24(4):57-65.
[35]车用太,鱼金子,杨会年.试论地下水位震前异常的来源、机制与模式[J].地震,1988,25(4):64-71.
[36]Lockner D A.Brittle fracture as an analog to earthquakes:Can acoustic emission be used to develop a viable prediction strategy[J].J Acous Emission,1996,14(3-4):S88-S101.
[37]Lockner D A,Byerlee J D,KuksENKO V,et al.Quasi-static fault growth and shear fracture energy in granite[J].Nature,1991,350(6 313):39-42.
[38]邱泽华,张宝红,池顺良,等.汶川地震前姑咱台观测的异常应变变化[J].中国科学:地球科学,2010,40(8):1 031-1 039.
[39]孙小龙,王广才,晏锐.利用概率密度分布提取流体观测资料中的高频异常信息——以2008年汶川8.0级地震为例[J].地球物理学报,2016.59(5):1 673-1 684.