基于管理层讨论与分析情感性的财务预警研究
|
摘要
目前的财务危机预警研究主要是基于财务指标建立模型,但财务指标只是财务危机发生的一种表现形式,甚至还有滞后性和不完全性,导致财务危机预警模型在以往的经济危机中失效。在引入如公司治理、股权结构、资本市场指标等非财务指标的模型中,因选取的非财务指标相对片面,容易出现预测结果的不稳定性。管理层讨论与分析因其所披露的对未来进行展望的预测性信息是财务报告的重要补充,使得获得更全面的信息成为可能,笔者提出通过文本分析,在结合财务指标的基础上,引入管理层讨论与分析语言情感性指标,尝试构建财务危机预警模型,并对模型的预测效果进行比对分析。检验显示引入管理层讨论与分析语言情感性指标的财务危机预警模型预测效果更好。弥补目前退市风险警示机制事后控制的不足,为上市公司出现退市风险的早期预警提供理论依据和技术支持。
The present study on the financial crisis early warning is mainly based on the financial index model, while the financial index is only the pattern of manifestation of the financial crisis, bearing the hysteretic nature and incompleteness, which results in the failure of the early warning in the past financial crisis. In the model with the corporate governance, the equity structure, the capital market index and the non-financial index, the instability of the predicting results easily occurs because of the relative one-sided financial index selected. The MD&A makes it possible to obtain the all-sided information with its nature of predictability. Based on the text analysis and the financial index, the MD&A language thymogenic index is involved in constructing the financial crisis model and a comparative analysis is carried out to test the effect of it. The test shows that it achieves a better effect, which makes up the deficiency of the delisting risk warning mechanism and provides a theoretical foundation and a technical support for the list companies when they meet the risk of delisting.
The present study on the financial crisis early warning is mainly based on the financial index model, while the financial index is only the pattern of manifestation of the financial crisis, bearing the hysteretic nature and incompleteness, which results in the failure of the early warning in the past financial crisis. In the model with the corporate governance, the equity structure, the capital market index and the non-financial index, the instability of the predicting results easily occurs because of the relative one-sided financial index selected. The MD&A makes it possible to obtain the all-sided information with its nature of predictability. Based on the text analysis and the financial index, the MD&A language thymogenic index is involved in constructing the financial crisis model and a comparative analysis is carried out to test the effect of it. The test shows that it achieves a better effect, which makes up the deficiency of the delisting risk warning mechanism and provides a theoretical foundation and a technical support for the list companies when they meet the risk of delisting.
引文
[1] 吴星泽.财务危机预警研究:存在问题与框架重构[J].会计研究,2011(2):59-65.
[2] Davis A K,Tama-Sweet I.Managers’Use of Language Across Alternative Disclosure Outlets:Earnings Press Releases versus MD&A*[J].Contemporary Accounting Research,2011,29(3):804-837.
[3] Loughran T,Mcdonald B.When Is a Liability Not a Liability?Textual Analysis,Dictionaries,and 10-Ks[J].The Journal of Finance,2011,66(1):35-65.
[4] Tailab M,J Burak M.Is the rhetorical tone in a MD&A consistent with financial performance?[J].Journal of Finance and Accountancy,2017,23(1):15-33.
[5] 谢德仁,林乐.管理层语调能预示公司未来业绩吗?——基于我国上市公司年度业绩说明会的文本分析[J].会计研究,2015(2):20-27.
[6] 孟庆斌,杨俊华,鲁冰.管理层讨论与分析披露的信息含量与股价崩盘风险——基于文本向量化方法的研究[J].中国工业经济,2017(12):132-150.
[7] 朱朝晖,包燕娜,许文瀚.管理层语调离差策略及其对分析师预测乐观度影响——基于A股制造业上市公司MD&A文本分析[J].财经论丛,2018(2):39-46.
[8] Campbell J Y,Hilscher J,Szilagyi J.In Search of Distress Risk[J].Journal of Finance,2008,63(6):2899-2939.
[9] 郝项超,梁琪.企业财务危机预警:偏最小二乘logistics方法的应用[J].管理工程学报,2010(4):100-103.
[10] 梁琪,过新伟,石宁.基于随机效应logistics模型的中小企业财务失败预警研究[J].管理工程学报,2014(3):126-134.
[11] 吴芃,仲伟俊,吴应宇.基于修正Jones盈余管理模型的财务危机预警研究[J].商业经济与管理,2010(8):67-74.
[12] Blanco A,Diéguez A,Alfonso M D,et al.Improving bankruptcy prediction in micro-entities by using nonlinear effects and non-financial variables[J].Czech Journal of Economics and Finance,2015,65(2):144-166.
[13] 宋彪,朱建明,李煦.基于大数据的企业财务预警研究[J].中央财经大学学报,2015(6):55-64.
[14] Rappaport A.Linking Competitive Strategy and Shareholder Value Analysis[J].Journal of Business Strategy,1987,7(4):58-67.
[15] Zmijewski M E.Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models[J].Journal of Accounting Research,1984(22):59-82.
[2] Davis A K,Tama-Sweet I.Managers’Use of Language Across Alternative Disclosure Outlets:Earnings Press Releases versus MD&A*[J].Contemporary Accounting Research,2011,29(3):804-837.
[3] Loughran T,Mcdonald B.When Is a Liability Not a Liability?Textual Analysis,Dictionaries,and 10-Ks[J].The Journal of Finance,2011,66(1):35-65.
[4] Tailab M,J Burak M.Is the rhetorical tone in a MD&A consistent with financial performance?[J].Journal of Finance and Accountancy,2017,23(1):15-33.
[5] 谢德仁,林乐.管理层语调能预示公司未来业绩吗?——基于我国上市公司年度业绩说明会的文本分析[J].会计研究,2015(2):20-27.
[6] 孟庆斌,杨俊华,鲁冰.管理层讨论与分析披露的信息含量与股价崩盘风险——基于文本向量化方法的研究[J].中国工业经济,2017(12):132-150.
[7] 朱朝晖,包燕娜,许文瀚.管理层语调离差策略及其对分析师预测乐观度影响——基于A股制造业上市公司MD&A文本分析[J].财经论丛,2018(2):39-46.
[8] Campbell J Y,Hilscher J,Szilagyi J.In Search of Distress Risk[J].Journal of Finance,2008,63(6):2899-2939.
[9] 郝项超,梁琪.企业财务危机预警:偏最小二乘logistics方法的应用[J].管理工程学报,2010(4):100-103.
[10] 梁琪,过新伟,石宁.基于随机效应logistics模型的中小企业财务失败预警研究[J].管理工程学报,2014(3):126-134.
[11] 吴芃,仲伟俊,吴应宇.基于修正Jones盈余管理模型的财务危机预警研究[J].商业经济与管理,2010(8):67-74.
[12] Blanco A,Diéguez A,Alfonso M D,et al.Improving bankruptcy prediction in micro-entities by using nonlinear effects and non-financial variables[J].Czech Journal of Economics and Finance,2015,65(2):144-166.
[13] 宋彪,朱建明,李煦.基于大数据的企业财务预警研究[J].中央财经大学学报,2015(6):55-64.
[14] Rappaport A.Linking Competitive Strategy and Shareholder Value Analysis[J].Journal of Business Strategy,1987,7(4):58-67.
[15] Zmijewski M E.Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models[J].Journal of Accounting Research,1984(22):59-82.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |