基于流域模型法的山洪灾害监测预警系统
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摘要
为了提高山洪灾害监测预警系统的准确性和时效性,减少山洪灾害对山区居民的人身财产损害,结合水利部门信息化建设要求和国家山洪灾害防治要求,阐述了山洪灾害监测预警系统的设计原则、建设目的及主要建立方法.临界雨量计算是山洪灾害预警系统的关键,分析了单站临界雨量法、区域临界雨量法及P-Ⅲ型频率分析法这3种常用山洪灾害监测预警系统计算方法存在的问题,提出了采用流域模型法计算临界雨量的山洪灾害监测预警方法,并利用流域模型法计算了山西省大同县部分沿河村落不同时段不同持水度条件下的临界雨量值,将山洪灾害预警指标实测值与计算值进行对比,结果显示实测数据介于土壤含水率较低和较高临界雨量值之间,说明该方法合理可行.以流域模型法为基础建立了大同县山洪灾害监测预警系统,促进了大同地区山洪灾害防治工作.
A flash flood disaster monitoring and early warning system was proposed based on watershed model to improve the accuracy and timeliness of the current system in use to minimize residents' personal injury and private property damage in mountain areas.At first,the system design principle,construction purpose,and basic modelling method were introduced according to the requirements of national water conservancy administration on informatization construction,flash flood disaster prevention and control.Since the rainfall threshold was one key factor in the system,the problems in three existing common methods for determining the threshold,i.e.single station rainfall,regional rainfall,and P-III frequency hydrological curve estimation,were analyzed.Then a watershed rainfall-based method was put forward to decide the rainfall threshold.Finally,a watershed model-based flash flood disaster monitoring and early warning system was developed.The system was used to determine the rainfall thresholds in different periods with different water-holding capacities in some riverside villages in Da-tong County of Shanxi Province,and estimated thresholds are compared with the measured values.Results indicate that the measured rainfall thresholds are in between the thresholds in high-water-content and low-water-content soils,suggesting the method is feasible.The built watershed-based flash flood disaster monitoring and early warning system for Datong County has promoted mountain flash flood disaster prevention and control work in Datong.
A flash flood disaster monitoring and early warning system was proposed based on watershed model to improve the accuracy and timeliness of the current system in use to minimize residents' personal injury and private property damage in mountain areas.At first,the system design principle,construction purpose,and basic modelling method were introduced according to the requirements of national water conservancy administration on informatization construction,flash flood disaster prevention and control.Since the rainfall threshold was one key factor in the system,the problems in three existing common methods for determining the threshold,i.e.single station rainfall,regional rainfall,and P-III frequency hydrological curve estimation,were analyzed.Then a watershed rainfall-based method was put forward to decide the rainfall threshold.Finally,a watershed model-based flash flood disaster monitoring and early warning system was developed.The system was used to determine the rainfall thresholds in different periods with different water-holding capacities in some riverside villages in Da-tong County of Shanxi Province,and estimated thresholds are compared with the measured values.Results indicate that the measured rainfall thresholds are in between the thresholds in high-water-content and low-water-content soils,suggesting the method is feasible.The built watershed-based flash flood disaster monitoring and early warning system for Datong County has promoted mountain flash flood disaster prevention and control work in Datong.
引文
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[2]李昌志,郭良.山洪临界雨量确定方法述评[J].中国防汛抗旱,2013,23(6):23-28.LI Changzhi,GUO Liang.Methods of rainfall indicator for flash flood[J].China flood&drought management,2013,23(6):23-28.(in Chinese)
[3]陈桂亚,袁雅鸣.山洪灾害临界雨量分析计算方法研究[J].人民长江,2005,36(12):40-43.CHEN Guiya,YUAN Yaming.Research on critical precipitation amount computation method of mountain torrential flood disaster[J].Yangtze river,2005,36(12):40-43.(in Chinese)
[4]张红萍.山区小流域洪水风险评估与预警技术研究[D].北京:中国水利水电科学研究院,2013.
[5]SEO D,LAKHANKAR T,MEJIA J,et al.Evaluation of operational national weather service gridded flash flood guidance over the Arkansas Red River Basin[J].Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2013,49(6):1296-1307.
[6]CLARK R A,GOURLEY J J,FLAMIG Z L,et al.CONUS-wide evaluation of national weather service flash flood guidance products[J].Weather&forecasting,2014,29(2):377-392.
[7]张红萍,刘舒,刘媛媛,等.山溪洪水临界雨量基本概念剖析及方法分析[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2014,12(2):185-189.ZHANG Hongping,LIU Shu,LIU Yuanyuan,et al.Research on the critical rainfall of flash floods in moutainous areas[J].Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,2014,12(2):185-189.(in Chinese)
[8]刘媛媛,胡昌伟,张红萍,等.资料匮乏地区山洪灾害临界雨量确定方法分析[J].水利水电技术,2014,45(8):15-17.LIU Yuanyuan,HU Changwei,ZHANG Hongping,et al.Analysis on method for determination of critical rainfall of mountain torrent disaster in data deficient region[J].Water resources and hydropower engineering,2014,45(8):15-17.(in Chinese)
[9]SHUKLA S,PANDEY G N.To design an architectural model for flood monitoring using wireless sensor network system[J].International journal of computer science&information technologies,2014,5(1):502-507.
[10]ISLAM M A,ISLAM T,SYRUS M A,et al.Implementation of flash flood monitoring system based on wireless sensor network in Bangladesh[C]//Proceedings of 3rd International Conference on Informatics,Electronics&Vision.[S.l.]:IEEE,2014:1-6.
[11]刘川佳仔.北京小流域产流特点及暴雨洪水计算研究[D].北京:清华大学,2013.
[12]MODRICK T M,GEORGAKAKOS K P.The character and causes of flash flood occurrence changes in mountainous small basins of Southern California under projected climatic change[J].Journal of hydrology:regional studies,2015,3:312-336.
[13]HAN D,BRAY M.Automated Thiessen polygon generation[J].Water resources research,2006,42(11):365-370.
[14]山西省水利厅.山西省水文计算手册[M].郑州:黄河水利出版社,2011.
[15]牛二伟.山洪灾害防治雨量预警指标计算方法探讨[J].山西水土保持科技,2014(1):14-16,21.NIU Erwei.Discussion on calculation method of flood disaster rainfall forewarning index[J].Soil and water conservation science and technology in Shanxi,2014(1):14-16,21.(in Chinese)
[16]NASH J E.A unit hydrograph study,with particular reference to British catchments[J].Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers,1960,17(3):249-282.
[17]JAIN S K,SINGH R D,SETH S M.Design flood estimation using GIS supported GIUH approach[J].Water resources management,2000,14(5):369-376.