极端偏好影响的大群体应急决策风险演化模型
|
摘要
针对极端偏好成员在应急决策中存在较大影响力的问题,构建了个体极端偏好影响力模型,结合风险偏好矢量的方向性和距离性提出了一种新的决策成员风险偏好相似度模型,并根据此模型将极端偏好群体划分为极端偏好同质群体集和极端偏好异质群体集,在此基础上引入非极端偏好决策成员主观接受程度来说明非极端偏好决策成员对个体极端偏好同质群体集和异质群体集影响力的接受程度,进而构建多阶段大群体应急决策风险偏好演化模型.最后通过案例及数据仿真结果的对比分析,验证了该模型的合理性和有效性.
Aiming at the great influence that extreme preference members playing in emergency decisionmaking, influence model of individual extreme preference is constructed. By combining the direction and distance of risk preference vector, a new risk preference similarity model for decision-making members is put forward. From this model, the extremists group is divided into two groups: Homogeneous group and heterogeneous group. On this basis, the degree of subjective acceptance for non-extreme preference members is introduced in order to explain the acceptance degree that non-extreme preference members to the homogeneous group and heterogeneous group. Risk preference evolution model for multi-stage large group emergency decision-making is further constructed. Finally, the rationality and validity of the model are verified by the contrast analysis of the data simulation results in case study.
Aiming at the great influence that extreme preference members playing in emergency decisionmaking, influence model of individual extreme preference is constructed. By combining the direction and distance of risk preference vector, a new risk preference similarity model for decision-making members is put forward. From this model, the extremists group is divided into two groups: Homogeneous group and heterogeneous group. On this basis, the degree of subjective acceptance for non-extreme preference members is introduced in order to explain the acceptance degree that non-extreme preference members to the homogeneous group and heterogeneous group. Risk preference evolution model for multi-stage large group emergency decision-making is further constructed. Finally, the rationality and validity of the model are verified by the contrast analysis of the data simulation results in case study.
引文
[1]查勇,宋阿丽,杨宏林,等.考虑决策者风险偏好的机会约束DEA模型[J].管理科学学报,2014,17(1):11-20.Zha Y, Song A L, Yang H L, et al. Chance constrained DEA model considering decision maker's risk appetite[J].Journal of Management Sciences in China, 2014, 17(1):11-20.
[2]陈俊霖,李沁雪,张春萍,等.应急环境下时间压力和决策者风险态度对决策行为的影响实验研究[J].中国管理科学,2015(S1):349-358.Chen J L, Li Q X, Zhang C P, et al. An experimental study on the effect of risk preference and time constraint on emergency decision makings[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2015(S1):349-358.
[3] Zhou W, Xu Z S. Asymmetric fuzzy preference relations based on the generalized sigmoid scale and their application in decision making involving risk appetites[J]. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 2016, 7(24):741-756.
[4] Suzuki S, Jensen E L S, Bossaerts P, et al. Behavioral contagion during learning about another agent's riskpreferences acts on the neural representation of decision-risk[J]. Proc of the National Academy of Sciences, 2016,113(14):3755-3760.
[5] Gao J, Li M, Liu H. Generalized ordered weighted utility averaging-hyperbolic absolute risk aversion operators and their applications to group decision making[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2015, 243(1):258-270.
[6] Xu X H, Du Z J, Chen X H. Consensus model for multi-criteria large-group emergency decision making considering non-cooperative behaviors and minority opinions[J]. Decision Support Systems, 2015, 79:150-160.
[7]徐选华,杜志娇,陈晓红,等.保护少数意见的冲突型大群体应急决策方法[J].管理科学学报,2017, 20(11):10-23.Xu X H, Du Z J, Chen X H, et al. Conflict large-group emergency decision-making method while protecting minority opinions[J]. Journal of Management Sciences in China, 2017, 20(11):10-23.
[8]杨雷,赵九茹.决策偏好不确定条件下群体决策收敛一致性研究[J].运筹与管理,2017, 26(1):96-102.Yang L,Zhao J R. Research on preference convergence of group decision making under the condition of uncertainty information[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2017, 26(1):96-102.
[9]王大伟,胡艺馨,时勘.先前情绪和过度自信对灾难事件后继风险决策的影响[J].心理科学,2014, 37(2):383-387.Wang D W, Hu Y X, Shi K. The effect of previous emotion and overconfidence on risk decision-making following disaster event[J]. Journal of Psychological Science, 2014, 37(2):383-387.
[10]段婧,刘永芳,何琪.决策者角色及相关因素对风险偏好的影响[J].心理学报,2012,44(3):369-376.Duan J, Liu Y F, He Q. Effects of the decision maker's roles and the related factors on risk preferences[J]. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 2012, 44(3):369-376.
[11] Sengupta A, Pal T K. On comparing interval numbers[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2000,127(1):28-43.
[12]丁颖.个体极端行为及其影响因子LOGIT分析[J].浙江社会科学,2012(6):90-94.Ding Y. Individual extreme behavior and the logit analysis of its impact factor[J]. Zhejiang Social Sciences,2012(6):90-94.
[13]杨雷,席酉民.群体讨论对个体偏好极端性转移的影响[J].系统工程,1997, 15(1):9-13.Yang L, Xi Y M. Individual polarization shift from group discussion[J]. Systems Engineering, 1997, 15(1):9-13.
[14]刘锟.大学生极端心理危机的心理特征分析[J].科教文汇,2014(1):210-211.Liu K. Analysis of psychological characteristics on college students'extreme psychological crisis[J]. The Science Education Article Collects, 2014(1):210-211.
[15] Galam S. Heterogeneous beliefs, segregation, and extremism in the making of public opinions[J]. Physical Review E, 2005, 71(4):046123.
[16] Mobilia M, Petersen A, Redner S. On the role of zealotry in the voter model[J]. Journal of Statistical Mechanics:Theory and Experiment, 2007, 8:P08029.
[17] Deffuant G. Comparing extremism propagation patterns in continuous opinion models[J]. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2006, 9(3):8.
[18]王长峰,满颍.基于动态博弈理论的重大工程应急管理决策研究[J].中国管理科学,2013(s1):172-176.Wang C F, Man Y. Research on emergency management decision-making based on dynamic game theory in major projects[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2013(s1):172-176.
[19]刘嘉,谢科范.突发事件群体决策演化[J].系统工程,2014, 12:97-103.Liu J, Xie K F. Group decision-making evolution in emergency[J]. Systems Engineering, 2014, 12:97-103.
[20]于海峰,王延章,王宁,等.基于情境的突发事件演化网络约简研究[J].情报杂志,2012(11):1-4.Yu H F, Wang Y Z, Wang N, et al. Research of emergency evolving network reduction based on circumstance[J].Journal of Intelligence, 2012, 31(11):1-4.
[21]魏玖长,韦玉芳,周嘉.群体性突发事件中群体行为的演化态势研究[J].电子科技大学学报(社科版),2011,13(6):25-30.Wei J C, Wei Y F, Zhou J. Research on the evolvement trend of collective behavior in mass emergency[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(Social Sciences Edition), 2011, 13(6):25-30.
[22]王德鲁,孙建滨.基于行为的企业突发事件演化动力学模型及仿真[J].情报杂志,2015, 34(4):97-103.Wang D L, Sun J B. Modelling and simulation of enterprise emergency evolution dynamics based on behavior perspective[J]. Journal of Intelligence, 2015, 34(4):97-103.
[23] Piatyszek E, Karagiannis G M. A model-based approach for a systematic risk analysis of local flood emergency operation plans:A first step toward a decision support system[J]. Natural Hazards, 2012, 61(3):1443-1462.
[24] Liu Y, Fan Z P, Yuan Y, et al. A FTA-based method for risk decision making in emergency response[J]. Computers and Operations Research, 2014, 42(2):49-57.
[25] Mathias J D, Huet S, Deffuant G. Bounded confidence model with fixed uncertainties and extremists:The opinions can keep fluctuating indefinitely[J]. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2016, 19(1):6.
[26] Hegselmann R, Krause U. Opinion dynamics under the influence of radical groups, charismatic leaders, and other constant signals:A simple unifying model[J]. Networks and Heterogeneous Media, 2015, 10(3):477-509.
[27] Hegselmann R. Bounded confidence, radical groups, and charismatic leaders[C]//Social Simulation Conference,2014:217-219.
[28]徐选华,王佩,蔡晨光.基于云相似度的语言偏好信息多属性大群体决策方法[J].控制与决策,2017,32(3):459-466.Xu X H, Wang P, Cai C G. Linguistic multi-attribute large group decision-making method based on similarity measurement of cloud model[J]. Control and Decision, 2017, 32(3):459-466.
[29]王晨旭,管晓宏,秦涛,等·微博消息传播中意见领袖影响力建模研究[J].软件学报,2015,26(6):1473-1485.Wang C X, Guan X H, Qin T, et al. Modelling on opinion leader's influence in microblog message propagation and its application[J]. Journal of Software, 2015, 26(6):1473-1485.
[30]徐选华,曹静.大型水电工程复杂生态环境风险评价[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012, 32(10):2237-2246.Xu X H, Cao J. Risk evaluation for complex ecological environment of large-scale hydropower engineering[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2012, 32(10):2237-2246.
[31]徐选华.面向特大自然灾害复杂大群体决策模型及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2012.Xu X H. Complex large group decision making models and its application oriented outsize nature disasters[M].Beijing:Science Press, 2012.
[32]徐选华,陈晓红.基于矢量空间的群体聚类方法研究[J].系统工程与电子技术,2005, 27(6):1034-1037.Xu X H, Chen X H. Research on the group clustering method based on vector space[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2005, 27(6):1034-1037.
[2]陈俊霖,李沁雪,张春萍,等.应急环境下时间压力和决策者风险态度对决策行为的影响实验研究[J].中国管理科学,2015(S1):349-358.Chen J L, Li Q X, Zhang C P, et al. An experimental study on the effect of risk preference and time constraint on emergency decision makings[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2015(S1):349-358.
[3] Zhou W, Xu Z S. Asymmetric fuzzy preference relations based on the generalized sigmoid scale and their application in decision making involving risk appetites[J]. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 2016, 7(24):741-756.
[4] Suzuki S, Jensen E L S, Bossaerts P, et al. Behavioral contagion during learning about another agent's riskpreferences acts on the neural representation of decision-risk[J]. Proc of the National Academy of Sciences, 2016,113(14):3755-3760.
[5] Gao J, Li M, Liu H. Generalized ordered weighted utility averaging-hyperbolic absolute risk aversion operators and their applications to group decision making[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2015, 243(1):258-270.
[6] Xu X H, Du Z J, Chen X H. Consensus model for multi-criteria large-group emergency decision making considering non-cooperative behaviors and minority opinions[J]. Decision Support Systems, 2015, 79:150-160.
[7]徐选华,杜志娇,陈晓红,等.保护少数意见的冲突型大群体应急决策方法[J].管理科学学报,2017, 20(11):10-23.Xu X H, Du Z J, Chen X H, et al. Conflict large-group emergency decision-making method while protecting minority opinions[J]. Journal of Management Sciences in China, 2017, 20(11):10-23.
[8]杨雷,赵九茹.决策偏好不确定条件下群体决策收敛一致性研究[J].运筹与管理,2017, 26(1):96-102.Yang L,Zhao J R. Research on preference convergence of group decision making under the condition of uncertainty information[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2017, 26(1):96-102.
[9]王大伟,胡艺馨,时勘.先前情绪和过度自信对灾难事件后继风险决策的影响[J].心理科学,2014, 37(2):383-387.Wang D W, Hu Y X, Shi K. The effect of previous emotion and overconfidence on risk decision-making following disaster event[J]. Journal of Psychological Science, 2014, 37(2):383-387.
[10]段婧,刘永芳,何琪.决策者角色及相关因素对风险偏好的影响[J].心理学报,2012,44(3):369-376.Duan J, Liu Y F, He Q. Effects of the decision maker's roles and the related factors on risk preferences[J]. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 2012, 44(3):369-376.
[11] Sengupta A, Pal T K. On comparing interval numbers[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2000,127(1):28-43.
[12]丁颖.个体极端行为及其影响因子LOGIT分析[J].浙江社会科学,2012(6):90-94.Ding Y. Individual extreme behavior and the logit analysis of its impact factor[J]. Zhejiang Social Sciences,2012(6):90-94.
[13]杨雷,席酉民.群体讨论对个体偏好极端性转移的影响[J].系统工程,1997, 15(1):9-13.Yang L, Xi Y M. Individual polarization shift from group discussion[J]. Systems Engineering, 1997, 15(1):9-13.
[14]刘锟.大学生极端心理危机的心理特征分析[J].科教文汇,2014(1):210-211.Liu K. Analysis of psychological characteristics on college students'extreme psychological crisis[J]. The Science Education Article Collects, 2014(1):210-211.
[15] Galam S. Heterogeneous beliefs, segregation, and extremism in the making of public opinions[J]. Physical Review E, 2005, 71(4):046123.
[16] Mobilia M, Petersen A, Redner S. On the role of zealotry in the voter model[J]. Journal of Statistical Mechanics:Theory and Experiment, 2007, 8:P08029.
[17] Deffuant G. Comparing extremism propagation patterns in continuous opinion models[J]. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2006, 9(3):8.
[18]王长峰,满颍.基于动态博弈理论的重大工程应急管理决策研究[J].中国管理科学,2013(s1):172-176.Wang C F, Man Y. Research on emergency management decision-making based on dynamic game theory in major projects[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2013(s1):172-176.
[19]刘嘉,谢科范.突发事件群体决策演化[J].系统工程,2014, 12:97-103.Liu J, Xie K F. Group decision-making evolution in emergency[J]. Systems Engineering, 2014, 12:97-103.
[20]于海峰,王延章,王宁,等.基于情境的突发事件演化网络约简研究[J].情报杂志,2012(11):1-4.Yu H F, Wang Y Z, Wang N, et al. Research of emergency evolving network reduction based on circumstance[J].Journal of Intelligence, 2012, 31(11):1-4.
[21]魏玖长,韦玉芳,周嘉.群体性突发事件中群体行为的演化态势研究[J].电子科技大学学报(社科版),2011,13(6):25-30.Wei J C, Wei Y F, Zhou J. Research on the evolvement trend of collective behavior in mass emergency[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(Social Sciences Edition), 2011, 13(6):25-30.
[22]王德鲁,孙建滨.基于行为的企业突发事件演化动力学模型及仿真[J].情报杂志,2015, 34(4):97-103.Wang D L, Sun J B. Modelling and simulation of enterprise emergency evolution dynamics based on behavior perspective[J]. Journal of Intelligence, 2015, 34(4):97-103.
[23] Piatyszek E, Karagiannis G M. A model-based approach for a systematic risk analysis of local flood emergency operation plans:A first step toward a decision support system[J]. Natural Hazards, 2012, 61(3):1443-1462.
[24] Liu Y, Fan Z P, Yuan Y, et al. A FTA-based method for risk decision making in emergency response[J]. Computers and Operations Research, 2014, 42(2):49-57.
[25] Mathias J D, Huet S, Deffuant G. Bounded confidence model with fixed uncertainties and extremists:The opinions can keep fluctuating indefinitely[J]. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 2016, 19(1):6.
[26] Hegselmann R, Krause U. Opinion dynamics under the influence of radical groups, charismatic leaders, and other constant signals:A simple unifying model[J]. Networks and Heterogeneous Media, 2015, 10(3):477-509.
[27] Hegselmann R. Bounded confidence, radical groups, and charismatic leaders[C]//Social Simulation Conference,2014:217-219.
[28]徐选华,王佩,蔡晨光.基于云相似度的语言偏好信息多属性大群体决策方法[J].控制与决策,2017,32(3):459-466.Xu X H, Wang P, Cai C G. Linguistic multi-attribute large group decision-making method based on similarity measurement of cloud model[J]. Control and Decision, 2017, 32(3):459-466.
[29]王晨旭,管晓宏,秦涛,等·微博消息传播中意见领袖影响力建模研究[J].软件学报,2015,26(6):1473-1485.Wang C X, Guan X H, Qin T, et al. Modelling on opinion leader's influence in microblog message propagation and its application[J]. Journal of Software, 2015, 26(6):1473-1485.
[30]徐选华,曹静.大型水电工程复杂生态环境风险评价[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012, 32(10):2237-2246.Xu X H, Cao J. Risk evaluation for complex ecological environment of large-scale hydropower engineering[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2012, 32(10):2237-2246.
[31]徐选华.面向特大自然灾害复杂大群体决策模型及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2012.Xu X H. Complex large group decision making models and its application oriented outsize nature disasters[M].Beijing:Science Press, 2012.
[32]徐选华,陈晓红.基于矢量空间的群体聚类方法研究[J].系统工程与电子技术,2005, 27(6):1034-1037.Xu X H, Chen X H. Research on the group clustering method based on vector space[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2005, 27(6):1034-1037.