我国水治理现状评估与展望
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摘要
从资源维、社会维、经济维、生态维、环境维5个维度,明确了我国水治理的目标,并系统设计了我国水治理评估指标体系;采用层级等权赋权法和目标一致性法,综合评估我国水治理的现状,并预测2020—2050年水治理的变化趋势。结果表明,改革开放以来,我国水治理指数从低于0. 235快速提升至接近0. 70,其中2010—2015年是我国水治理的加速期,水治理指数提升了50%左右;预期2020年我国水治理指数将超过0. 85,实现水资源消耗利用与经济发展协调; 2030年我国水治理指数将接近0. 95,实现水环境污染排放与经济发展协调,水安全保障能力显著提升,基本实现水治理目标; 2050年我国水治理指数将达到最优值1,实现水资源利用、水污染排放、水灾害损失、水生态退化面积的"零增长",全面实现人水和谐。
The goal of water governance is specified from five dimensions,including resources,economy,sociality,ecology and environment. The evaluation index system of the water governance in China is systematically designed. The current situation of water governance is comprehensively evaluated and the variation trend of China's water governance in 2020-2050 is forecasted using the hierarchical equal weight method and the target consistency method. The results show that the index of water governance has been increased quickly from below 0. 235 to near 0. 70 since the reform and opening-up. The acceleration period of water governance is from 2010 to 2015,in which the water governance index has increased about50%. It is expected that the water governance index will exceed 0.85 by 2020,and the harmonization between economic development and water resources utilization will be realized. The index of water governance will reach 0.95 by 2030,and the harmonization between economic development and water pollution will be realized. The capacity of water safety support can be significantly improved and the water governance targets can be realized basically. The index of water governance will reach the optimum value of 1 by 2050,and the water resources utilization,water pollution discharge,water disaster loss and water ecology degradation area will be zero growth,fully achieving the harmony between human and water.
The goal of water governance is specified from five dimensions,including resources,economy,sociality,ecology and environment. The evaluation index system of the water governance in China is systematically designed. The current situation of water governance is comprehensively evaluated and the variation trend of China's water governance in 2020-2050 is forecasted using the hierarchical equal weight method and the target consistency method. The results show that the index of water governance has been increased quickly from below 0. 235 to near 0. 70 since the reform and opening-up. The acceleration period of water governance is from 2010 to 2015,in which the water governance index has increased about50%. It is expected that the water governance index will exceed 0.85 by 2020,and the harmonization between economic development and water resources utilization will be realized. The index of water governance will reach 0.95 by 2030,and the harmonization between economic development and water pollution will be realized. The capacity of water safety support can be significantly improved and the water governance targets can be realized basically. The index of water governance will reach the optimum value of 1 by 2050,and the water resources utilization,water pollution discharge,water disaster loss and water ecology degradation area will be zero growth,fully achieving the harmony between human and water.
引文
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[2]NELSON M B.Land into water-water into land:a history of water management in Florida[M].Gainesville:University Presses of Florida,1980.
[3]MEYER M C.Water in the Hispanic Southwest:a social and legal history,1550-1850[M].Tucson:The University of Arizona Press,1984.
[4]CLARK I G.Water in New Mexico:a history of its management and use[M].Albuquerque:UNM Press,1987.
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[7]ISMAIL S.Toward sustainable management of water resources[M].Bethesda:Congressional Information Service,Inc.,1996.
[8]SYLVAIN R P.Water policies and smallholding irrigation schemes in South Africa:a history and new institutional challenges[J].Water Policy,2002,4(3):283-300.
[9]PETER H G.The changing water paradigm:a look at twenty-first century water resources development[J].Water Internatural,2000,25(1):127-138.
[10]THOMAS V C.Principles of water resources:history,development,management,and policy[M].Hoboken:John Wiley&Sons,2005.
[11]DOUGLAS M S,JAROSLAV T.The institutionalization of river treaties[J].International Negotiation,2009,14(2):229-251.
[12]MICHAEL R.Identitat and zukunft des wasserrechts als bestandteil eines umweltgesetzbuchs[J].Zeitschrift fur Umweltrecht,2008(7/8):352-357.
[13]MICHAEL R.Inventor der wasserrahmenrichtlinie:die rechtliche fortentwicklung der europaischen gewasserschutzpolitik im streit um fristen,ziele und deutungshoheiten[J].Natur und Recht(NuR),2013,35(11):765-773.
[14]杨选.国内外典型水治理模式及对武汉水治理的借鉴[J].长江流域资源与环境,2007,16(5):584-587.(YANG Xuan.Typical foreign and domestic water management patterns and their eferential value to water management in Wuhan City[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2007,16(5):584-587.(in Chinese))
[15]沈百鑫.比较法视野下的我国可持续水治理(上):对水和水情的法律理解[J].水利经济,2012,30(5):38-42.(SHEN Baixin.China’s sustainable water management in comparative law perspective(I):legal understanding of water and water regimen[J].Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2012,30(5):38-42.(in Chinese))
[16]沈百鑫.比较法视野下的我国可持续水治理(下):对水和水情的法律理解[J].水利经济,2012,30(6):26-31.(SHEN Baixin.China’s sustainable water management in comparative law perspective(Ⅱ):legal understanding of water and water regimen[J].Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2012,30(6):26-31.(in Chinese))
[17]沈百鑫,郑丙辉,王宏洋,等.德国水治理的基本理念和《水平衡管理法》总则规定研究[J].环境保护,2016,44(12):66-70.(SHEN Baixin,ZHENG Binhui,WANGHongyang,et al.Research on the basic concept and the general provisions of water law in Germany[J].Enviromental Protection,2016,44(12):66-70.(in Chinese))
[18]高龙,乔根平.瑞典的水治理目标体系和政策及其对我国的启示[J].中国水利,2016(17):52-56.(GAO Long,QIAO Genping.Policy and target system of water governance in Sweden and its inspiration for China[J].China Water Resources,2016(17):52-56.(in Chinese))
[19]吴舜泽,姚瑞华,赵越,等.国际水治理的机制体制经验及对我国启示[J].环境保护,2015,43(22):66-68.(WU Shunze,YAO Ruihua,ZHAO Yue,et al.The experience and enlightenment of the mechanism and system of the international water management[J].Environmental Protection,2015,43(22):66-68.(in Chinese))
[20]《完善水治理体制研究》课题组.国外流域管理在水治理体制中的地位和作用[J].水利发展研究,2015(8):19-22.(《The research of improving water governance system》Team.The role and function of foreign river basin management of water governance system[J].Water Resources Development Research,2015(8):19-22.(in Chinese))
[21]《完善水治理体制研究》课题组.水治理及水治理体制的内涵和范畴[J].水利发展研究,2015(8):1-4.(《The research of improving water governance system》Team.The connotation and category of water governance and water governance system[J].Water Resources Development Research,2015(8):1-4.(in Chinese))
[22]黄秋洪,刘同良,李虹.创新以流域机构为核心的水治理体制[J].新视野,2016(1):101-105.(HUANGQiuhong,LIU Tongliang,LI Hong.The innovation of water governance system taken river basin institutions as the core[J].Expanding Horizons,2016(1):101-105.(in Chinese))
[23]《完善水治理体制研究》课题组.我国水治理及水治理体制的历史演变及经验[J].水利发展研究,2015(8):5-8.(《The Research of Improving Water Governance System》Team.The historical evolution and experience of water governance and water governance system in China[J].Expanding Horizons,2015(8):5-8.(in Chinese))
[24]王亚华,黄译萱.中国水利现代化进程的评价和展望[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(6):120-127.(WANG Yahua,HUANG Yixuan.Evaluation and prospect of China’s water conservancy modernization proces[J].Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment,2012,22(6):120-127.(in Chinese))
[25]王亚华,黄译萱,唐啸.中国水利发展阶段划分:理论框架与评判[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(6):922-930.(WANG Yahua,HUANG Yixuan,TANG Xiao.Division of China water conservancy development stages:theoretical framework and evaluation[J].Jounal of Natural Resources,2013,28(6):922-930.(in Chinese))
[26]刘洪超,杨路华,陈凯,等.我国农村水利现代化评价指标体系与评价模型[J].水利经济,2015,33(4):15-18.(LIUHongchao,YANG Luhua,CHEN Kai,et al.Evaluation index system and model for rural water conservancy modernization in China[J].Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2015,33(4):15-18.(in Chinese))
[27]黄显峰,刘展志,方国华.基于云模型的水利现代化评价方法与应用[J].水利水电科技进展,2017,37(6):54-61.(HUANG Xianfeng,LIU Zhanzhi,FANG Guohua.Evaluation and application of water conservancy modernization index system based on a cloud model[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2017,37(6):54-61.(in Chinese))
[28]吴丹,王士东,马超.我国水利发展历程演变及评价[J].水利水电科技进展,2015,35(6):7-12.(WU Dan,WANG Shidong,MA Chao.Evolution and evaluation for water conservancy development process in China[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2015(6):7-12.(in Chinese))
[29]吴丹.中国水利绿色现代化发展进程评价与战略构想[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(9):114-123.(WU Dan.Evaluation and strategic conception of China’s water conservancy green modernization process[J].Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment,2015,25(9):114-123.(in Chinese))
[30]吴丹.流域水利发展水平评价方法研究:以淮河流域为例[J].资源科学,2016,38(7):1323-1335.(WU Dan.Modeling an evaluation method of water conservancy development in Huaihe River Basin[J].Resources Science,2016,38(7):1323-1335.(in Chinese))
[31]《完善水治理体制研究》课题组.我国水治理及水治理体制现状分析[J].水利发展研究,2015(8):9-12.(《The research of improving water governance system》Team.Analysis on the situation of water governance and water governance system in China[J].Expanding Horizons,2015(8):9-12.(in Chinese))
[32]胡鞍钢,王亚华.如何看待黄河断流与流域水治理:黄河水利委员会调研报告[J].管理世界,2002(6):29-34.(HU Angang,WANG Yahua.How to understand the Yellow River flow and water governance in the river basin:the investigation report of Yellow River Conservancy Commission[J].Management world,2002(6):29-34.(in Chinese))
[33]王亚华,胡鞍钢.黄河流域水资源治理模式应从控制向良治转变[J].人民黄河,2002,24(1):23-25.(WANGYahua,HU Angang.Change in management mode about water resources from control to modern management[J].Yellow River,2002,24(1):23-25.(in Chinese))
[34]王亚华.水治理如何“两手发力”[J].中国水利,2014(10):4-6.(WANG Yahua.How to strengthen roles of both government and market in water governance[J].China Water Resources,2014(10):4-6.(in Chinese))
[35]吴舜泽,姚瑞华,赵越.科学把握水治理新形势,完善治水机制体制[J].环境保护,2015,43(10):12-15.(WUShunze,YAO Ruihua,ZHAO Yue.Deeply understanding the new situation to improve the water treatment system and mechanism[J].Environmental Protection,2015,43(10):12-15.(in Chinese))
[36]阮本清.流域水资源管理[M].北京:科学出版社,2001.
[37]游进军,贾玲,汪林,等.基于水资源多维属性的总量控制浅析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2012,10(3):48-52.(YOU Jinjun,JIA Ling,WANG Lin,et al.Discussion on gross control based on multi-attribute of water resources[J].South-to-North Water Diversion and Water Science&Technology,2012,10(3):48-52.(in Chinese))
(1)2020—2030年的特征表现系作者根据历年5个维度的变化趋势,结合中长期水利改革发展规划成果,并通过专家咨询予以确定。
(1)防洪能力指数=高标准(防洪标准达到规划防洪标准)防洪保护区面积/防洪保护区总面积×100%
[2]NELSON M B.Land into water-water into land:a history of water management in Florida[M].Gainesville:University Presses of Florida,1980.
[3]MEYER M C.Water in the Hispanic Southwest:a social and legal history,1550-1850[M].Tucson:The University of Arizona Press,1984.
[4]CLARK I G.Water in New Mexico:a history of its management and use[M].Albuquerque:UNM Press,1987.
[5]VAN DE VEN G P.Man-made lowlands:history of water management and land reclamation in the Netherlands[M].Matrijs:Uitgeverij,1993.
[6]JOHN H.A history of water in modern England and Wales[M].Manchester:Manchester University Press,1998.
[7]ISMAIL S.Toward sustainable management of water resources[M].Bethesda:Congressional Information Service,Inc.,1996.
[8]SYLVAIN R P.Water policies and smallholding irrigation schemes in South Africa:a history and new institutional challenges[J].Water Policy,2002,4(3):283-300.
[9]PETER H G.The changing water paradigm:a look at twenty-first century water resources development[J].Water Internatural,2000,25(1):127-138.
[10]THOMAS V C.Principles of water resources:history,development,management,and policy[M].Hoboken:John Wiley&Sons,2005.
[11]DOUGLAS M S,JAROSLAV T.The institutionalization of river treaties[J].International Negotiation,2009,14(2):229-251.
[12]MICHAEL R.Identitat and zukunft des wasserrechts als bestandteil eines umweltgesetzbuchs[J].Zeitschrift fur Umweltrecht,2008(7/8):352-357.
[13]MICHAEL R.Inventor der wasserrahmenrichtlinie:die rechtliche fortentwicklung der europaischen gewasserschutzpolitik im streit um fristen,ziele und deutungshoheiten[J].Natur und Recht(NuR),2013,35(11):765-773.
[14]杨选.国内外典型水治理模式及对武汉水治理的借鉴[J].长江流域资源与环境,2007,16(5):584-587.(YANG Xuan.Typical foreign and domestic water management patterns and their eferential value to water management in Wuhan City[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2007,16(5):584-587.(in Chinese))
[15]沈百鑫.比较法视野下的我国可持续水治理(上):对水和水情的法律理解[J].水利经济,2012,30(5):38-42.(SHEN Baixin.China’s sustainable water management in comparative law perspective(I):legal understanding of water and water regimen[J].Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2012,30(5):38-42.(in Chinese))
[16]沈百鑫.比较法视野下的我国可持续水治理(下):对水和水情的法律理解[J].水利经济,2012,30(6):26-31.(SHEN Baixin.China’s sustainable water management in comparative law perspective(Ⅱ):legal understanding of water and water regimen[J].Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2012,30(6):26-31.(in Chinese))
[17]沈百鑫,郑丙辉,王宏洋,等.德国水治理的基本理念和《水平衡管理法》总则规定研究[J].环境保护,2016,44(12):66-70.(SHEN Baixin,ZHENG Binhui,WANGHongyang,et al.Research on the basic concept and the general provisions of water law in Germany[J].Enviromental Protection,2016,44(12):66-70.(in Chinese))
[18]高龙,乔根平.瑞典的水治理目标体系和政策及其对我国的启示[J].中国水利,2016(17):52-56.(GAO Long,QIAO Genping.Policy and target system of water governance in Sweden and its inspiration for China[J].China Water Resources,2016(17):52-56.(in Chinese))
[19]吴舜泽,姚瑞华,赵越,等.国际水治理的机制体制经验及对我国启示[J].环境保护,2015,43(22):66-68.(WU Shunze,YAO Ruihua,ZHAO Yue,et al.The experience and enlightenment of the mechanism and system of the international water management[J].Environmental Protection,2015,43(22):66-68.(in Chinese))
[20]《完善水治理体制研究》课题组.国外流域管理在水治理体制中的地位和作用[J].水利发展研究,2015(8):19-22.(《The research of improving water governance system》Team.The role and function of foreign river basin management of water governance system[J].Water Resources Development Research,2015(8):19-22.(in Chinese))
[21]《完善水治理体制研究》课题组.水治理及水治理体制的内涵和范畴[J].水利发展研究,2015(8):1-4.(《The research of improving water governance system》Team.The connotation and category of water governance and water governance system[J].Water Resources Development Research,2015(8):1-4.(in Chinese))
[22]黄秋洪,刘同良,李虹.创新以流域机构为核心的水治理体制[J].新视野,2016(1):101-105.(HUANGQiuhong,LIU Tongliang,LI Hong.The innovation of water governance system taken river basin institutions as the core[J].Expanding Horizons,2016(1):101-105.(in Chinese))
[23]《完善水治理体制研究》课题组.我国水治理及水治理体制的历史演变及经验[J].水利发展研究,2015(8):5-8.(《The Research of Improving Water Governance System》Team.The historical evolution and experience of water governance and water governance system in China[J].Expanding Horizons,2015(8):5-8.(in Chinese))
[24]王亚华,黄译萱.中国水利现代化进程的评价和展望[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(6):120-127.(WANG Yahua,HUANG Yixuan.Evaluation and prospect of China’s water conservancy modernization proces[J].Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment,2012,22(6):120-127.(in Chinese))
[25]王亚华,黄译萱,唐啸.中国水利发展阶段划分:理论框架与评判[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(6):922-930.(WANG Yahua,HUANG Yixuan,TANG Xiao.Division of China water conservancy development stages:theoretical framework and evaluation[J].Jounal of Natural Resources,2013,28(6):922-930.(in Chinese))
[26]刘洪超,杨路华,陈凯,等.我国农村水利现代化评价指标体系与评价模型[J].水利经济,2015,33(4):15-18.(LIUHongchao,YANG Luhua,CHEN Kai,et al.Evaluation index system and model for rural water conservancy modernization in China[J].Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2015,33(4):15-18.(in Chinese))
[27]黄显峰,刘展志,方国华.基于云模型的水利现代化评价方法与应用[J].水利水电科技进展,2017,37(6):54-61.(HUANG Xianfeng,LIU Zhanzhi,FANG Guohua.Evaluation and application of water conservancy modernization index system based on a cloud model[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2017,37(6):54-61.(in Chinese))
[28]吴丹,王士东,马超.我国水利发展历程演变及评价[J].水利水电科技进展,2015,35(6):7-12.(WU Dan,WANG Shidong,MA Chao.Evolution and evaluation for water conservancy development process in China[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2015(6):7-12.(in Chinese))
[29]吴丹.中国水利绿色现代化发展进程评价与战略构想[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(9):114-123.(WU Dan.Evaluation and strategic conception of China’s water conservancy green modernization process[J].Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment,2015,25(9):114-123.(in Chinese))
[30]吴丹.流域水利发展水平评价方法研究:以淮河流域为例[J].资源科学,2016,38(7):1323-1335.(WU Dan.Modeling an evaluation method of water conservancy development in Huaihe River Basin[J].Resources Science,2016,38(7):1323-1335.(in Chinese))
[31]《完善水治理体制研究》课题组.我国水治理及水治理体制现状分析[J].水利发展研究,2015(8):9-12.(《The research of improving water governance system》Team.Analysis on the situation of water governance and water governance system in China[J].Expanding Horizons,2015(8):9-12.(in Chinese))
[32]胡鞍钢,王亚华.如何看待黄河断流与流域水治理:黄河水利委员会调研报告[J].管理世界,2002(6):29-34.(HU Angang,WANG Yahua.How to understand the Yellow River flow and water governance in the river basin:the investigation report of Yellow River Conservancy Commission[J].Management world,2002(6):29-34.(in Chinese))
[33]王亚华,胡鞍钢.黄河流域水资源治理模式应从控制向良治转变[J].人民黄河,2002,24(1):23-25.(WANGYahua,HU Angang.Change in management mode about water resources from control to modern management[J].Yellow River,2002,24(1):23-25.(in Chinese))
[34]王亚华.水治理如何“两手发力”[J].中国水利,2014(10):4-6.(WANG Yahua.How to strengthen roles of both government and market in water governance[J].China Water Resources,2014(10):4-6.(in Chinese))
[35]吴舜泽,姚瑞华,赵越.科学把握水治理新形势,完善治水机制体制[J].环境保护,2015,43(10):12-15.(WUShunze,YAO Ruihua,ZHAO Yue.Deeply understanding the new situation to improve the water treatment system and mechanism[J].Environmental Protection,2015,43(10):12-15.(in Chinese))
[36]阮本清.流域水资源管理[M].北京:科学出版社,2001.
[37]游进军,贾玲,汪林,等.基于水资源多维属性的总量控制浅析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2012,10(3):48-52.(YOU Jinjun,JIA Ling,WANG Lin,et al.Discussion on gross control based on multi-attribute of water resources[J].South-to-North Water Diversion and Water Science&Technology,2012,10(3):48-52.(in Chinese))
(1)2020—2030年的特征表现系作者根据历年5个维度的变化趋势,结合中长期水利改革发展规划成果,并通过专家咨询予以确定。
(1)防洪能力指数=高标准(防洪标准达到规划防洪标准)防洪保护区面积/防洪保护区总面积×100%
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