基于可变集理论的流域防洪风险评价
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摘要
防洪风险评价是洪水管理决策的有效手段,建立防洪风险评价指标体系的目的是为了将洪水风险定量化与规范化,以便更好的决策,从而产生一定的社会和经济效益,而评价指标本身具有模糊与清晰的二元混合性。在可变模糊集和可变模糊清晰混合集(简称为可变集)的基本思想与理论基础上,建立了防洪风险评价方法。并将评价结果与同类方法进行比较,得到同样甚至更好、更合理的评价结果。应用该方法对中国东北第二松花江流域进行防洪风险评价,得到流域各个县市的风险评价等级以及流域的整体防洪风险分布图,可知洪水风险由流域自身的发展现状客观决定,不同地区的风险级别程度可以为以后的流域防洪规划设计提供参考依据。
The evaluation indexes themselves have the binary miscibility characteristics of fuzziness and clarity, so how to determine the index system of the flood control evaluation and ensure the evaluation method's scientificity would be much more important, and that is the starting point of this study. Based on the main idea and the basic theoretical of variable fuzzy sets and the later developed variable fuzzy clear mixture sets, a new flood control system risk evaluation method is established. Through a replication experiment and comparison with the same kind of evaluation methods, the result will be the same at least or even much better and more reasonable. Finally, getting the new method used in the flood control system risk evaluation of the Second Songhua river watershed, northeast of china, and then getting the risk evaluation levels of every counties in the basin and the whole flood control risk distribution map of the basin. Which illustrates that the flood risk is radically decided by the cities' internal developing, planning and construction, that means the basic reason of floods phenomenon, population, economic situation and other factors of the region is just the objective representation of the flood events. The evaluation results will provide reference frame for the basin flood control planning and designing, and will helpful for the basin's long-term and healthy development and planning. Besides, the evaluation with the new method is conductive for reflecting the ways human get along in nature, which realizes the balance between human and nature in future planning and development and makes flood control risk evaluation more meaningful.
The evaluation indexes themselves have the binary miscibility characteristics of fuzziness and clarity, so how to determine the index system of the flood control evaluation and ensure the evaluation method's scientificity would be much more important, and that is the starting point of this study. Based on the main idea and the basic theoretical of variable fuzzy sets and the later developed variable fuzzy clear mixture sets, a new flood control system risk evaluation method is established. Through a replication experiment and comparison with the same kind of evaluation methods, the result will be the same at least or even much better and more reasonable. Finally, getting the new method used in the flood control system risk evaluation of the Second Songhua river watershed, northeast of china, and then getting the risk evaluation levels of every counties in the basin and the whole flood control risk distribution map of the basin. Which illustrates that the flood risk is radically decided by the cities' internal developing, planning and construction, that means the basic reason of floods phenomenon, population, economic situation and other factors of the region is just the objective representation of the flood events. The evaluation results will provide reference frame for the basin flood control planning and designing, and will helpful for the basin's long-term and healthy development and planning. Besides, the evaluation with the new method is conductive for reflecting the ways human get along in nature, which realizes the balance between human and nature in future planning and development and makes flood control risk evaluation more meaningful.
引文
[1] Chen S Y,Guo Y.Variable fuzzy sets and its application in comprehensive risk evaluation for flood-control engineering system [J].Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making,2006,5:153-162.
[2] Mcminn W R,Yang Q L,Scholz M.Classification and assessment of water bodies as adaptive structural measures for flood risk management planning [J].Journal of Environment Manage,2010,91(9):1855-1863.
[3] 刘冀,王本德.基于组合权重的模糊可变模型及在防洪风险评价中应用[J].大连理工大学学报,2009,49(2):272-275.
[4] 宋文涛,何斌,梁国华.防洪保护区洪水灾害风险评价模型的研究与应用 [J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(5):46-52.
[5] 张太衡,武新宇,孙倩莹.基于径流模型参数不确定性的防洪风险分析[J].水力发电学报,2017,36(9):31-39.
[6] 邹强,王宁,陈炯宏,等.基于云模型的流域防洪工程体系风险评价研究[J].中国长江,2016,47(10):1-4,14.
[7] 靳春玲,王运鑫,贡力.基于模糊层次评价法的黄河兰州段突发水污染风险评价[J].安全与环境学报,2018,18(1):363-368.
[8] Abhishek G,Shyamal K K.Application of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for flood risk assessment:a case study in Malda district of West Bengal,India [J].Natural Hazards,Published online:19 June 2018.https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3392-y.
[9] Marcin S,Dominik K,Bronwyn P.Impact of forecasted land use changes on flood risk in the Polish Carpathians [J].Nat Hazards,Published online:08 June 2018.https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3384-y.
[10] Shen G Q,Lu Y T,Wang M N,et al.Status and fuzzy comprehensive assessment of combined heavy metal and organo-chlorine pesticide pollution in the Taihu Lake region of China [J].Journal of Environmental Management,2005,76(4):355-362.
[11] Li T,Cai S M,Yang H D,et al.Fuzzy comprehensive quantifying assessment in analysis of water quality:A case study in Lake Honghu,China [J].Environmental Engineering Science,2009,26(2):451-458.
[12] 陈守煜.工程水文水资源系统模糊集分析理论与实践[M].大连:大连理工大学出版社,1998.
[13] 陈守煜.工程可变模糊集理论与模型—模糊水文水资源学数学基础[J].大连理工大学学报,2005,45(2):308-312.
[14] 陈守煜,王子茹.基于对立统一与质量互变定理的水资源系统可变模糊评价新方法[J].水利学报,2011,42(3):253-261,270.
[15] Chen S Y,Xue Z C,Li M.Variable sets principle and method for flood classification [J].Science China-Technological Sciences,2013,56(9):2343-2348.
[16] Chen S Y,Xue Z C,Li M,et al.Variable sets method for urban flood vulnerability assessment [J].Science China-Technological Sciences,2013,56(12):3129-3136.
[17] 陈守煜,薛志春,李敏,等.基于可变集的年径流预测方法[J].水利学报,2014,45(8):40-48.
[18] 陈守煜.基于可变模糊集的辩证法三大规律数学定理及其应用[J].大连理工大学学报,2010,50(5):838-844.
[19] 陈守煜,王定乾.基于可变集的建筑结构地震损伤评估原理和方法[J].黑龙江大学工程学报,2012,3(2):1-6,37.
[20] 陈守煜,聂相田,王子茹,等.基于可变集的建筑工程评标原理与方法[J].黑龙江大学工程学报,2013,4(3):1-5.
[21] 薛志春.变化环境对洪水影响及流域防洪预警研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2016.
[2] Mcminn W R,Yang Q L,Scholz M.Classification and assessment of water bodies as adaptive structural measures for flood risk management planning [J].Journal of Environment Manage,2010,91(9):1855-1863.
[3] 刘冀,王本德.基于组合权重的模糊可变模型及在防洪风险评价中应用[J].大连理工大学学报,2009,49(2):272-275.
[4] 宋文涛,何斌,梁国华.防洪保护区洪水灾害风险评价模型的研究与应用 [J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(5):46-52.
[5] 张太衡,武新宇,孙倩莹.基于径流模型参数不确定性的防洪风险分析[J].水力发电学报,2017,36(9):31-39.
[6] 邹强,王宁,陈炯宏,等.基于云模型的流域防洪工程体系风险评价研究[J].中国长江,2016,47(10):1-4,14.
[7] 靳春玲,王运鑫,贡力.基于模糊层次评价法的黄河兰州段突发水污染风险评价[J].安全与环境学报,2018,18(1):363-368.
[8] Abhishek G,Shyamal K K.Application of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for flood risk assessment:a case study in Malda district of West Bengal,India [J].Natural Hazards,Published online:19 June 2018.https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3392-y.
[9] Marcin S,Dominik K,Bronwyn P.Impact of forecasted land use changes on flood risk in the Polish Carpathians [J].Nat Hazards,Published online:08 June 2018.https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3384-y.
[10] Shen G Q,Lu Y T,Wang M N,et al.Status and fuzzy comprehensive assessment of combined heavy metal and organo-chlorine pesticide pollution in the Taihu Lake region of China [J].Journal of Environmental Management,2005,76(4):355-362.
[11] Li T,Cai S M,Yang H D,et al.Fuzzy comprehensive quantifying assessment in analysis of water quality:A case study in Lake Honghu,China [J].Environmental Engineering Science,2009,26(2):451-458.
[12] 陈守煜.工程水文水资源系统模糊集分析理论与实践[M].大连:大连理工大学出版社,1998.
[13] 陈守煜.工程可变模糊集理论与模型—模糊水文水资源学数学基础[J].大连理工大学学报,2005,45(2):308-312.
[14] 陈守煜,王子茹.基于对立统一与质量互变定理的水资源系统可变模糊评价新方法[J].水利学报,2011,42(3):253-261,270.
[15] Chen S Y,Xue Z C,Li M.Variable sets principle and method for flood classification [J].Science China-Technological Sciences,2013,56(9):2343-2348.
[16] Chen S Y,Xue Z C,Li M,et al.Variable sets method for urban flood vulnerability assessment [J].Science China-Technological Sciences,2013,56(12):3129-3136.
[17] 陈守煜,薛志春,李敏,等.基于可变集的年径流预测方法[J].水利学报,2014,45(8):40-48.
[18] 陈守煜.基于可变模糊集的辩证法三大规律数学定理及其应用[J].大连理工大学学报,2010,50(5):838-844.
[19] 陈守煜,王定乾.基于可变集的建筑结构地震损伤评估原理和方法[J].黑龙江大学工程学报,2012,3(2):1-6,37.
[20] 陈守煜,聂相田,王子茹,等.基于可变集的建筑工程评标原理与方法[J].黑龙江大学工程学报,2013,4(3):1-5.
[21] 薛志春.变化环境对洪水影响及流域防洪预警研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2016.
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