风功率预测技术水平分析及改进措施研究
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摘要
风功率预测误差评估对提高含大规模风电系统的安全经济运行具有重要意义。基于山西电网风电功率预测与监视系统,结合常规误差评估统计学指标,提出一种风电预测误差综合评估指标对,该指标既能反映预测方法的整体水平,又能给出预测细节评估。采用该评估方法,并利用山西省风电实测数据进行了分析,结果表明该方法可有效用于风电预测模型的选择及风电场预测工程的验收,进一步验证了该方法的实际应用价值。
Error evaluation of wind power prediction is significance for the safe and economical operation of power systems with large-scale wind power. Based on the forecasting and monitoring system of wind power in Shanxi power grid, and combined with conventional statistical indicators of error evaluation, a comprehensive evaluation indexes of wind power prediction error is shown in this paper. The index can present the overall level of the predicting method, and can show the evaluation in detail. The wind power data is analyzed by this evaluation method, and it is verified that this method can be effectively used for the selection of wind power forecasting model and the acceptance of wind farm prediction project.
Error evaluation of wind power prediction is significance for the safe and economical operation of power systems with large-scale wind power. Based on the forecasting and monitoring system of wind power in Shanxi power grid, and combined with conventional statistical indicators of error evaluation, a comprehensive evaluation indexes of wind power prediction error is shown in this paper. The index can present the overall level of the predicting method, and can show the evaluation in detail. The wind power data is analyzed by this evaluation method, and it is verified that this method can be effectively used for the selection of wind power forecasting model and the acceptance of wind farm prediction project.
引文
[1]张丽英,叶廷路,辛耀中,等.大规模风电接入电网的相关问题及措施[J].中国电机工程学报,2010,30(25):1-9.
[2]Lexiadis M A, Dokopoulo S P,Samanoglou S H,et al. Shortterm forecasting of wind speed and related electrical power[J].Solar Energy,1998,63(1):61-68.
[3]Pinson P, Nielsen H A, Moller J K, et al. Nonparametric probabilistic forecasts of wind power:required properties and evaluation[J]. Wind Engineering,2007,10(6):497-516.
[4]Nan Xiaoqiang, Li Qunzhan, et al. Short-term wind speed syntheses correcting forecasting model and its application[J].International Journal of Electrical Power&Energy Systems,2013(49):264-268.
[5]杨文佳,康重庆,夏清,等.基于预测误差分布特性统计分析的概率性短期负荷预测[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(19):47-52.
[6]Lange M. On the uncertainty of wind power predictions analysis of the forecast accuracy and statistical distribution of errors[J].Journal of Solar Energy Engineering,2005(127):177-184.
[7]Hans B, JoséA D N. Statistical analysis of wind power forecast error[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2008, 23(3):983-991.
[8]国家电网公司.风电功率预测功能规范:Q/GDW 588—2011[S].北京:中国电力出版社,2011.
[2]Lexiadis M A, Dokopoulo S P,Samanoglou S H,et al. Shortterm forecasting of wind speed and related electrical power[J].Solar Energy,1998,63(1):61-68.
[3]Pinson P, Nielsen H A, Moller J K, et al. Nonparametric probabilistic forecasts of wind power:required properties and evaluation[J]. Wind Engineering,2007,10(6):497-516.
[4]Nan Xiaoqiang, Li Qunzhan, et al. Short-term wind speed syntheses correcting forecasting model and its application[J].International Journal of Electrical Power&Energy Systems,2013(49):264-268.
[5]杨文佳,康重庆,夏清,等.基于预测误差分布特性统计分析的概率性短期负荷预测[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(19):47-52.
[6]Lange M. On the uncertainty of wind power predictions analysis of the forecast accuracy and statistical distribution of errors[J].Journal of Solar Energy Engineering,2005(127):177-184.
[7]Hans B, JoséA D N. Statistical analysis of wind power forecast error[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2008, 23(3):983-991.
[8]国家电网公司.风电功率预测功能规范:Q/GDW 588—2011[S].北京:中国电力出版社,2011.