灰色拓扑模型在矿井瓦斯涌出量的应用
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摘要
针对GM(1,1)模型在矿井瓦斯涌出量预测的不足,在灰色预测模型基础上引入了拓扑预测,将两者的优点结合起来,建立了矿井瓦斯涌出量预测的灰色拓扑预测模型.继而将该模型应用到采区工作面的瓦斯涌出量预测的分析中.实验结果表明:原始数据的GM(1,1)模型结果与测量值相差很大,且不满足精度要求,而采用灰色拓扑预测模型要求精度达到"很好"级别,预测结果和实测结果波形变化一致,绝对误差为0.2m~3/min,相对误差为3.8%,误差小.实验验证了灰色拓扑模型能够解决传统的GM(1,1)模型对于波动类型数据预测的不足.对于矿井瓦斯管理具有指导意义.
According to GM(1,1) model for prediction of the amount of emission is insufficient in mine,introduces the topological prediction based on the grey prediction model,combine the advantages of both,established grey topology prediction of mine gas emission prediction model.Then,the model is applied to the analysis and prediction of gas emission in coal mining face.The experimental results show that:the original data of the GM(1,1) model results and the measured values vary greatly,and does not meet the requirements of precision,while using the grey topology prediction model requires precision to achieve "better" level,the prediction results and measured results of waveform change is consistent.The absolute error is 0.2m~3/min,the relative error is 3.8%,the error is small.Experimental verification of the grey topological model can solve the problem of the traditional GM(1,1) model for prediction of wave type data deficiency.It has guiding significance for mine management.
According to GM(1,1) model for prediction of the amount of emission is insufficient in mine,introduces the topological prediction based on the grey prediction model,combine the advantages of both,established grey topology prediction of mine gas emission prediction model.Then,the model is applied to the analysis and prediction of gas emission in coal mining face.The experimental results show that:the original data of the GM(1,1) model results and the measured values vary greatly,and does not meet the requirements of precision,while using the grey topology prediction model requires precision to achieve "better" level,the prediction results and measured results of waveform change is consistent.The absolute error is 0.2m~3/min,the relative error is 3.8%,the error is small.Experimental verification of the grey topological model can solve the problem of the traditional GM(1,1) model for prediction of wave type data deficiency.It has guiding significance for mine management.
引文
[1]袁东升.采煤工作面瓦斯涌出量的灰色建模及预测研究[J].焦作工学院学报(自然科学版),2003,22(5).
[2]伍爱友,肖红飞,王从陆等.煤与瓦斯突出控制因素加权灰色关联模型的建立与应用[J].煤炭学报,2005,30(1):58-62.
[3]张子戌,袁崇孚.瓦斯地质数学模型法预测矿井瓦斯涌出量研究[J].煤炭学报,1998,8:368-372.
[4]雷文杰,刘瑞涛,苏国韶.灰色关联优化BP神经网络预测工作面瓦斯涌出量[J].矿业安全与环保,2013,4(5):34-37.
[5]题正义,杨艳国,丁涛.瓦斯涌出量的模糊数学与灰色系统理论的预测[J].辽宁工程技术学报(自然科学版),2000:126-129.
[6]邵良彬.基于粗糙集理论的煤矿瓦斯预测技术[J].煤炭学报,2009,3:371-375.
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[8]伍爱友,田云丽,宋译等.灰色系统理论在矿井瓦斯涌出量预测中的应用[J].煤炭学报,2005,30(5):589-592.
[9]易得生,郭萍.灰色理论与方法[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1992:218-300.
[10]刘思峰,郭天榜,党耀国.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2000:144-150.
[2]伍爱友,肖红飞,王从陆等.煤与瓦斯突出控制因素加权灰色关联模型的建立与应用[J].煤炭学报,2005,30(1):58-62.
[3]张子戌,袁崇孚.瓦斯地质数学模型法预测矿井瓦斯涌出量研究[J].煤炭学报,1998,8:368-372.
[4]雷文杰,刘瑞涛,苏国韶.灰色关联优化BP神经网络预测工作面瓦斯涌出量[J].矿业安全与环保,2013,4(5):34-37.
[5]题正义,杨艳国,丁涛.瓦斯涌出量的模糊数学与灰色系统理论的预测[J].辽宁工程技术学报(自然科学版),2000:126-129.
[6]邵良彬.基于粗糙集理论的煤矿瓦斯预测技术[J].煤炭学报,2009,3:371-375.
[7]邓聚龙.灰预测与灰决策(修订版)[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2002:45-114.
[8]伍爱友,田云丽,宋译等.灰色系统理论在矿井瓦斯涌出量预测中的应用[J].煤炭学报,2005,30(5):589-592.
[9]易得生,郭萍.灰色理论与方法[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1992:218-300.
[10]刘思峰,郭天榜,党耀国.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2000:144-150.