基于阈值的地震预警方法在2016年8月24日意大利M_w6.2级地震中的应用
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摘要
介绍了基于阈值的地震预警方法的概念及其计算流程,基于2016年8月24日意大利Mw6.2级地震的近场强震动数据,分析了该方法在此次地震中运用的普适性。结果表明,该方法可以在首个台站触发后开始预测各个台站相应的警报等级、并快速估计地震的潜在破坏区域,每个台站的警报等级以及潜在破坏区域的估计结果比较美国地质调查局(USGS)Shake Map的仪器烈度分布体现出了较强的一致性,这表明了本方法在此次地震中运用的可行性与准确性。
We introduced the concept and process of the threshold-based earthquake early warning method. We analyze the universality of this method using the near-field strong-motion data recorded in the Italy Mw6. 2 earthquake on August 24,2016. Our results indicate that the alert level of each station can be accurately predicted and the extent of the potential damage zone( PDZ) can be rapidly estimated after the first station triggered. The determination of alert level for each station and the estimation of the potential damage zone show reasonably good agreement with the distribution of instrumental intensity of Shake Map from the U. S. Geological Survey( USGS). The feasibility and validity of this method in Italy Mw6. 2 Earthquake on August 24,2016 are demonstrated.
We introduced the concept and process of the threshold-based earthquake early warning method. We analyze the universality of this method using the near-field strong-motion data recorded in the Italy Mw6. 2 earthquake on August 24,2016. Our results indicate that the alert level of each station can be accurately predicted and the extent of the potential damage zone( PDZ) can be rapidly estimated after the first station triggered. The determination of alert level for each station and the estimation of the potential damage zone show reasonably good agreement with the distribution of instrumental intensity of Shake Map from the U. S. Geological Survey( USGS). The feasibility and validity of this method in Italy Mw6. 2 Earthquake on August 24,2016 are demonstrated.
引文
[1]宋晋东.高速铁路运行控制用地震动参数及单台地震预警技术研究[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所,2013.SONG Jindong.Research on seismic ground motion indices for operation control and single station earthquake early warning applied for high-speed railway[D].Harbin:Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,2013.(in Chinese)
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[13]Zhang H C,Jin X,Wei Y X,et al.An earthquake early warning system in Fujian,China[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.2016,106(2):755-765.
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[18]马强.地震预警技术研究及应用[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所,2008.MA Qiang.Study and application on earthquake early warning[D].Harbin:Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration.2008.(in Chinese)
[19]Zollo A,Amoroso O,Lancieri M,et al.A threshold-based earthquake early warning using dense accelerometer networks[J].Geophysical Journal International,2010,183(2):963-974.
[20]Colombelli S,Amoroso O,Zollo A,et al.Test of a threshold-based earthquake early-warning method using Japanese data[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2013,102(3):1266-1275.
[21]Picozzi M,Colombelli S,Zollo A,et al.A threshold-based earthquake early-warning system for offshore events in southern Iberia[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,2015,172(9):2467-2480.
[22]Peng C Y,Yang J S,Chen Y,et al.Application of a threshold-based earthquake early warning method to the Mw6.6 Lushan earthquake,Sichuan,China[J].Seismological Research Letters,2015,86(3):841-847.
[23]宋潇潇,王骞,王亚文,等.2016年8月24日意大利佩鲁贾Mw6.2地震的震情和灾情基本情况介绍[J].国际地震动态,2016(9):1-6.SONG Xiaoxiao,WANG Qian,WANG Yawen,et al.Introduction about the information and the damage of Italy Mw6.2 earthquake on August24,2016.[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2016(9):1-6.(in Chinese)
[24]姜永正,王宏伟,任叶飞,等.2016年8月24日意大利Mw6.2地震近场地震动方向性效应[J].地震学报,2017,39(1):132-142.JIANG Yongzheng,WANG Hongwei,REN Yefei,et al.Rupture dir ectivity effect of near-field ground motions in Italy Mw6.2 earthquake on August 24,2016[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2017,39(1):132-142.(in Chinese)
[25]Luzi L,Hailemikael S,Bindi D,et al.ITACA(Italian Accelerometric Archive):A web portal for the dissemination of Italian strong-motion data[J].Seismological Research Letters,2008,79(5):716-722.
[26]马强,金星,李山有,等.用于地震预警的P波震相到时自动拾取[J].地球物理学报,2013,56(7):2313-2321.MA Qiang,JIN Xing,LI Shanyou,et al.Automatic P-arrival detection for earthquake early warning[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2013,56(7):2313-2321.(in Chinese)
[27]Wu Y M,Kanamori H.Experiment on an onsite early warning method for the Taiwan early warning system[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2005,95(1):347-353.
[28]Nakamura Y.On the urgent earthquake detection and alarm system(Ur EDAS)[C]//Proceedings of 9th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering,1988,Vol.VII:673-678.
[29]Satriano C,Lomax A,Zollo A.Real-time evolutionary earthquake location for seismic early warning[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2008,98(3):1482-1494.
[30]Wessel P,Smith W H F.New,improved version of generic mapping tools released[J].Eos Transactions American Geophysical Union,1998,79(47):579.
[2]Hoshiba M,Kamigaichi O,Saito M,et al.Earthquake early warning starts nationwide in Japan[N].EOS,Transactions,American Geophysical Union,2008,89(8):73-80.
[3]Kamigaichi O,Saito M,Doi K,et al.Earthquake early warning in Japan:warning the general public and future[J].Seismological Research Letters,2009,80(5):717-726.
[4]Espinosa-Aranda J M,Jimenez A,Ibarrola G,et al.Mexico city seismic alert system[J].Seismological Research Letters,1995,66:42-52.
[5]Espinosa-Aranda J M,Cuellar A,Garcia A,et al.Evolution of the Mexico seismic alert system(SASMEX)[J].Seismological Research Letters,2009,80(5):694-706.
[6]Suarez G,Novelo D,Mansilla E.Performance evaluation of the seismic alert system(SAS)in Mexico city:a seismological and a social perspective[J].Seismological Research Letters,2009,80(5):707-716.
[7]Allen R M,Kanamori H.The protential for earthquake early warning in southern California[J].Science,2003,300:786-789.
[8]Wurman G,Allen R M,Lombard P.Toward earthquake early warning in northern California[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2007,112:B08311.
[9]Hartog J R,Kress V C,Malone S D,et al.Earthquake early warning:Shake Alert in the Pacific Northwest[J].2016,106(4).1875-1886.
[10]Zollo A,Iannaccone G,Lancieri M,et al.Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy:Methodologies and performance evaluation[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2009,36,L00B07.
[11]Picozzi M,Zollo A,Brondi P,et al.Exploring the feasibility of a nationwide earthquake early warning system in Italy[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth,2015,120(4):2446-2465.
[12]Peng H S,Wu Z L,Wu Y M,et al.Developing a prototype earthquake early warning system in the Beijing capital region[J].Seismological Research Letters,2011,82(3):394-403.
[13]Zhang H C,Jin X,Wei Y X,et al.An earthquake early warning system in Fujian,China[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.2016,106(2):755-765.
[14]Wu Y M,Kanamori H.Experiment on an onsite early warning method for the Taiwan early warning system[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2005,95(1):347-353.
[15]Hsiao N C,Wu Y M,Shin T C,et al.Development of earthquake early warning system in Taiwan[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2009,36:L00B02.
[16]Hoshiba M,Ozaki T.Earthquake early warning and tsunami warning of the Japan Meteorological Agency,and their performance in the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake(Mw9.0)[M]//Early Warning for Geological Disasters.2014:1-28.
[17]Kodera Y,Saitou J,Hayashimoto N,et al.Earthquake early warning for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake:performance evaluation of the current system and the next?generation methods of the Japan Meteorological Agency[J].Earth,Planets and Space,2016,68:202.
[18]马强.地震预警技术研究及应用[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所,2008.MA Qiang.Study and application on earthquake early warning[D].Harbin:Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration.2008.(in Chinese)
[19]Zollo A,Amoroso O,Lancieri M,et al.A threshold-based earthquake early warning using dense accelerometer networks[J].Geophysical Journal International,2010,183(2):963-974.
[20]Colombelli S,Amoroso O,Zollo A,et al.Test of a threshold-based earthquake early-warning method using Japanese data[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2013,102(3):1266-1275.
[21]Picozzi M,Colombelli S,Zollo A,et al.A threshold-based earthquake early-warning system for offshore events in southern Iberia[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,2015,172(9):2467-2480.
[22]Peng C Y,Yang J S,Chen Y,et al.Application of a threshold-based earthquake early warning method to the Mw6.6 Lushan earthquake,Sichuan,China[J].Seismological Research Letters,2015,86(3):841-847.
[23]宋潇潇,王骞,王亚文,等.2016年8月24日意大利佩鲁贾Mw6.2地震的震情和灾情基本情况介绍[J].国际地震动态,2016(9):1-6.SONG Xiaoxiao,WANG Qian,WANG Yawen,et al.Introduction about the information and the damage of Italy Mw6.2 earthquake on August24,2016.[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2016(9):1-6.(in Chinese)
[24]姜永正,王宏伟,任叶飞,等.2016年8月24日意大利Mw6.2地震近场地震动方向性效应[J].地震学报,2017,39(1):132-142.JIANG Yongzheng,WANG Hongwei,REN Yefei,et al.Rupture dir ectivity effect of near-field ground motions in Italy Mw6.2 earthquake on August 24,2016[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2017,39(1):132-142.(in Chinese)
[25]Luzi L,Hailemikael S,Bindi D,et al.ITACA(Italian Accelerometric Archive):A web portal for the dissemination of Italian strong-motion data[J].Seismological Research Letters,2008,79(5):716-722.
[26]马强,金星,李山有,等.用于地震预警的P波震相到时自动拾取[J].地球物理学报,2013,56(7):2313-2321.MA Qiang,JIN Xing,LI Shanyou,et al.Automatic P-arrival detection for earthquake early warning[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2013,56(7):2313-2321.(in Chinese)
[27]Wu Y M,Kanamori H.Experiment on an onsite early warning method for the Taiwan early warning system[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2005,95(1):347-353.
[28]Nakamura Y.On the urgent earthquake detection and alarm system(Ur EDAS)[C]//Proceedings of 9th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering,1988,Vol.VII:673-678.
[29]Satriano C,Lomax A,Zollo A.Real-time evolutionary earthquake location for seismic early warning[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2008,98(3):1482-1494.
[30]Wessel P,Smith W H F.New,improved version of generic mapping tools released[J].Eos Transactions American Geophysical Union,1998,79(47):579.
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