基于ML模型的绿色出行方式选择行为研究
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摘要
为了给绿色出行相关管理政策的制定提供理论依据,在阐述绿色出行定义及其出行方式界定的基础上,结合2009年济南市居民出行调查数据分析绿色出行特征,构建绿色出行方式选择ML(Multinominal Logit)模型,探讨影响居民选择绿色出行方式的主要因素,揭示出行者属性特征与绿色出行方式选择之间的关系,定量分析绿色出行方式在各影响因素条件下的选择概率。研究结果表明:绿色出行方式选择行为受居民年龄、家庭月收入及职业、出行时间、出行费用等因素影响;班车在远距离的通勤出行中占有一定的优势,应积极发展单位班车等形式的集约型绿色交通方式;针对出行时间和出行费用采取相应的城市交通管理措施,可以有效引导绿色出行。
In order to provide a theoretical basis for formulating green travel management policies,based on describing the definition of green travel and its travel mode,the characteristics of green travelwere analyzed combined with the resident travel survey data of Jinan in 2009. The Multinominal LogitModel of green travel mode choice was established. The factors that influenced the residents′ choicesof green travel modes were discussed. The relationship between travelers′ features and their choices ofgreen travel modes were revealed. The choice probabilities of green travel modes in the conditions ofvarious factors were quantitatively analyzed. The results show that resident′s age,family monthly in-come and occupation,travel time,travel cost and other factors have significant impact on whether ornot to choose green travel. Shuttle bus holds some advantages in long distance commuting,and this in-tensive green travel mode should be actively developed. In addition,corresponding urban traffic man-agement measures taken in the light of the travel time and travel cost,can effectively guide the greentravel.
In order to provide a theoretical basis for formulating green travel management policies,based on describing the definition of green travel and its travel mode,the characteristics of green travelwere analyzed combined with the resident travel survey data of Jinan in 2009. The Multinominal LogitModel of green travel mode choice was established. The factors that influenced the residents′ choicesof green travel modes were discussed. The relationship between travelers′ features and their choices ofgreen travel modes were revealed. The choice probabilities of green travel modes in the conditions ofvarious factors were quantitatively analyzed. The results show that resident′s age,family monthly in-come and occupation,travel time,travel cost and other factors have significant impact on whether ornot to choose green travel. Shuttle bus holds some advantages in long distance commuting,and this in-tensive green travel mode should be actively developed. In addition,corresponding urban traffic man-agement measures taken in the light of the travel time and travel cost,can effectively guide the greentravel.
引文
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[2]VALKILA N,SAARI A.Attitude-Behavior Gap in Energy Issues:Case Study of Three Different Finnish Residential Areas[J].Energy for Sustainable Development,2013,17(1):24-34.
[3]许芳,肖前,徐国虎.基于SPSS的城市居民绿色出行方式选择的因子分析[J].中国集体经济,2011(3上):104-105.
[4]寇祁.基于绿色交通理念的居民出行方式选择意向研究——以X市为例[D].石家庄:河北经贸大学,2015.
[5]潘静玉.大中型城市居民绿色出行行为影响研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2014.
[6]崔维军,罗玉.城市居民气候变化风险认知对出行方式选择的影响——基于620位城市居民的调查分析[J].生态经济,2014,30(11):119-123,155.
[7]陈凯,李华晶,郭芬.消费者绿色出行的心理因素分析[J].华东经济管理,2014,28(6):129-134.
[8]马静,柴彦威,刘志林.基于居民出行行为的北京市交通碳排放影响机理[J].地理学报,2011,66(8):1023-1032.
[9]王彧.各年龄段女性出行方式选择的调查[J].科技广场,2011(6):111-113.
[10]BRADSHAW C.Green Transportation Hierarchy:A Guide for Personal and Public Decision-making[EB/OL].(1994-09-02)[2015-11-04].http://vault.sierraclub.org/sprawl/articles/trips.asp.
[11]吴昊灵,袁振洲,田钧方,等.基于绿色交通理念的生态新区交通规划与实践[J].城市发展研究,2014,21(2):106-111.
[12]关宏志.非集计模型:交通行为分析的工具[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2004.
[13]谢秋婷,温旭丽.卫星城居民出行特征及出行方式选择模型研究[J].交通运输研究,2015,1(2):31-35.