基于年时序仿真的增量配电网投资效益评估及敏感性分析
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摘要
新电改政策提出有序放开增量配电业务,鼓励社会资本投资增量配电网。是否具有投资效益是社会资本进行投资决策的关键,目前尚无针对增量配电网项目投资效益的评估计算方法,且分布式电源和负荷的时序波动性以及增量配电网运营模式的多变性给效益评估带来诸多困难。为此,分析了增量配电网的运营模式,建立了增量配电网投资效益评估模型,通过净现值、动态投资回收期、净现值率等指标进行经济性评估。采用年时序仿真法对项目的成本和收益进行详细仿真计算,并针对负荷密度、分布式电源补贴费用、不同类型负荷比例等关键参数进行了敏感性分析。最后,结合算例,分场景讨论分析,验证了所提方法的有效性。
New electricity reform policy puts forward orderly liberalization of incremental power distribution business and encourages social capital to invest in incremental distribution network. Whether it has investment benefits is the key to investment decision-making for social capital. There is currently no method for evaluating the investment benefits of incremental distribution network projects, and the time series fluctuation of distributed power supply and load and the variability of incremental distribution network operation mode bring many difficulties to benefit evaluation. To this end, this paper analyzes the operation mode of incremental distribution network, establishes an evaluation model of incremental distribution network investment benefit, and conducts economic evaluation with indicators such as net present value, dynamic investment recovery period and net present value ratio. Annual time series simulation method is used to simulate and analyze the cost and benefit of the projects, and sensitivity analysis is carried out for key parameters such as load density, distributed power subsidy cost, and different types of load ratio. Finally, combined with examples, discussion and analysis of the scenes are performed to verify effectiveness of the proposed method.
New electricity reform policy puts forward orderly liberalization of incremental power distribution business and encourages social capital to invest in incremental distribution network. Whether it has investment benefits is the key to investment decision-making for social capital. There is currently no method for evaluating the investment benefits of incremental distribution network projects, and the time series fluctuation of distributed power supply and load and the variability of incremental distribution network operation mode bring many difficulties to benefit evaluation. To this end, this paper analyzes the operation mode of incremental distribution network, establishes an evaluation model of incremental distribution network investment benefit, and conducts economic evaluation with indicators such as net present value, dynamic investment recovery period and net present value ratio. Annual time series simulation method is used to simulate and analyze the cost and benefit of the projects, and sensitivity analysis is carried out for key parameters such as load density, distributed power subsidy cost, and different types of load ratio. Finally, combined with examples, discussion and analysis of the scenes are performed to verify effectiveness of the proposed method.
引文
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[2]国家发展改革委,国家能源局.关于规范开展增量配电业务改革试点的通知[Z].2016.
[3]王国权,乔琨,侯荣均,等.配电网投资效益评价及投资项目的优选[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2017,29(12):146-150.Wang Guoquan,Qiao Kun,Hou Rongjun,et al.Evaluation on investment returns of distribution network and optimization of investment projects[J].Journal of Power System and Automation,2017,29(12):146-150(in Chinese).
[4]刘胜利,曹阳,冯跃亮,等.配电网投资效益评价与决策模型研究及应用[J].电力系统保护与控制,2015,43(2):119-125.Liu Shengli,Cao Yang,Feng Yueliang,et al.Research and application of distribution grid investment effectiveness evaluation and decisionmaking model[J].Power system protection and control,2015,43(2):119-125(in Chinese).
[5]李娟,李晓辉,刘树勇,等.基于理想解法和灰色关联度的配电网投资效益评价[J].华东电力,2012,40(1):13-17.Li Juan,Li Xiaohui,Liu Shuyong,et al.Investment benefit evaluation for distribution network based on TOPSIS and grey correlation degree[J].East China Power,2012,40(1):13-17(in Chinese).
[6]陈源,王璐,黄友珍,等.基于多级可拓评价法的配电网规划经济效益评估模型[J].中国电力,2016,49(10):159-164.Chen Yuan,Wang Lu,Huang Youzhen,et al.Economic benefit evaluation model of distribution network planning based on multilevel extension evaluation method[J].China Power,2016,49(10):159-164(in Chinese).
[7]曹阳,黄越辉,袁越,等.基于时序仿真的风光容量配比分层优化算法[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(5):1072-1078.Cao Yang,Huang Yuehui,Yuan Yue,et al.Stratified optimization algorithm for optimal proportion of wind and solar capacity based on time sequence simulation[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(5):1072-1078(in Chinese).
[8]Ela E,O’Malley M.Studying the variability and uncertainty impacts of variable generation at multiple timescales[J].IEEE Transactions on Powers Systems,2012,27(3):1324-1333.
[9]刘纯,曹阳,黄越辉,等.基于时序仿真的风电年计划制定方法[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(11):13-19.Liu Chun,Cao Yang,Huang Yuehui,et al.An annual wind power planning method based on time sequential simulations[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2014,38(11):13-19(in Chinese).
[10]国家发展改革委,财政部,国家能源局.关于2018年光伏发电有关事项的通知发改能源[Z].2018.
[11]国家能源局.分散式风电项目开发建设暂行管理办法[Z].2018.
[12]国家发展改革委,国家能源局.关于开展分布式发电市场化交易试点的通知[Z].2017.
[13]梁浩,张沛,贾宏杰,等.基于概率潮流的未来输电线路经济评估[J].电网技术,2014,38(3):675-680.Liang Hao,Zhang Pei,Jia Hongjie,et al.Economic assessment of future transmission line base on probabilistic power flow[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(3):675-680(in Chinese).
[14]向铁元,文闪闪,胡导福,等.类比在电力负荷预测中的应用[J].电力建设,2009,30(1):99,101.Xiang Tieyuan,Wen Shanshan,Hu Daofu,et al.Application of analogy in power load forecasting[J].Electric Power Construction,2009,30(1):99,101(in Chinese).
[15]刘青,韩康康,徐婷,等.新疆2020年规划电网地磁感应电流的分布规律及敏感性分析[J].电网技术,2017,41(11):3678-3684.Liu Qing,Han Kangkang,Xu Ting,et al.Analysis of distribution regularities and sensitivity of geomagnetically induced currents inplanned Xinjiang 750kV power grid[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(11):3678-3684(in Chinese).
[16]孔祥瑞,李鹏,严正,等.售电侧放开环境下的电力市场压力测试分析[J].电网技术,2016,40(11):3279-3286.Kong Xiangrui,Li Peng,Yan Zheng,et al.Stress testing on electricity market with retail transactions opened[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(11):3279-3286(in Chinese).
[17]上海市发展改革委.上海市发展改革委关于上海电网2017-2019年输配电价有关事项的通知[Z].2017.