考虑暂态过程仿真的连锁故障多时域演化模型
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摘要
在分析现有连锁故障演化模型不足的基础上,提出考虑暂态过程仿真的连锁故障多时域演化模型,并对连锁故障路径进行阶段性评估。首先,建立线路过负荷保护模型、发电机电压保护模型、线路状态转移模型和负荷时序波动模型,并按照不同扰动的时域特性对模型进行时域分类;其次,针对连锁故障演化的不同时域过程,分别建立暂态过程的暂态仿真模块,暂态过程向中长期过程过渡的潮流计算模块和中长期过程的稳态仿真模块,形成了连锁故障多时域演化模型;最后,以故障环节为评估对象,对连锁故障进行阶段性评估。用IEEE 39节点系统进行仿真计算,分析表明所建模型能够更加合理地模拟连锁故障演化过程,提高连锁故障演化模型的精确性,并揭示连锁故障的阶段性特征。
Based on the analysis of existing cascading failure evolution model's shortcomings,the multi-timescales cascading failure evolution model is proposed considering transient process simulation.Phrasal evaluation of the cascading failure path is also conducted.First,overload protection of the transmission line,voltage protection of the generator,state transition of the transmission line and time sequence variation of the load are all modeled and categorized based on their timescale characteristics.To deal with the transient process,the medium to the transition process and the medium and long term process from the former to the latter and the the medium and long term process,modules of transient simulation,power flow calculation and steady state simulation are correspondingly established for each of the different time sequences within the cascading failure evolution process,forming the multiple time domain evolution model of cascading failures.Finally,phrasal evaluation of the fault links of the cascading failures is conducted.In this article,simulation and calculation are done using the IEEE 39 bus system.The results verify that the proposed model can not only obtain more reasonable simulation results of the cascading failure evolution process,but also improve the accuracy of the evaluation model of cascading failures and reveal phrasal characteristic of cascading failures.
Based on the analysis of existing cascading failure evolution model's shortcomings,the multi-timescales cascading failure evolution model is proposed considering transient process simulation.Phrasal evaluation of the cascading failure path is also conducted.First,overload protection of the transmission line,voltage protection of the generator,state transition of the transmission line and time sequence variation of the load are all modeled and categorized based on their timescale characteristics.To deal with the transient process,the medium to the transition process and the medium and long term process from the former to the latter and the the medium and long term process,modules of transient simulation,power flow calculation and steady state simulation are correspondingly established for each of the different time sequences within the cascading failure evolution process,forming the multiple time domain evolution model of cascading failures.Finally,phrasal evaluation of the fault links of the cascading failures is conducted.In this article,simulation and calculation are done using the IEEE 39 bus system.The results verify that the proposed model can not only obtain more reasonable simulation results of the cascading failure evolution process,but also improve the accuracy of the evaluation model of cascading failures and reveal phrasal characteristic of cascading failures.
引文
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[18]YAO Rui,HUANG Shaowei,SUN Kai,et al.A multi-timescale quasi-dynamic model for simulation of cascading outages[J].IEEETransactions on Power Systems,2016,31(4):3189-3201.
[19]JAHROMI M E,EHASN M,MEYABADI A F.A dynamic fuzzy interactive approach for DG expansion planning[J].International Journal of Electrical Power&Energy Systems,2012,43(1):1 094-1 105.
[20]许梁,孙涛,徐箭,等.基于函数型非参数回归模型的中长期日负荷曲线预测[J].电力自动化设备,2015,35(7):89-94.
[21]范九伦,裴继红.基于可能性分布的聚类有效性[J].电子学报,1998,26(4):113-115.
[22]史慧杰,葛斐,丁明,等.输电网络运行风险的在线评估[J].电网技术,2005,29(6):43-48.
[23]马超,肖先勇,李长松,等.电网连锁性故障识别和风险评估基本框架与模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(31):99-105.
[24]吴旭,张建华,邱威,等.基于N-k故障的地区电网脆弱性评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2012,32(4):93-99.
[25]滕琳,刘万顺,貟志皓,等.电力系统暂态稳定实时紧急控制的研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2003,23(1):64-69.
[26]薛禹胜,刘强,LEDWICH Gerard,等.关于暂态稳定不确定性分析的评述[J].电力系统自动化,2007,31(14):1-5.
[27]孙元章,程林,刘海涛.基于实时运行状态的电力系统运行可靠性评估[J].电网技术,2005,29(15):6-12.
[28]BEZDEK J C.A physical interpretation of fuzzy ISODATA[J].IEEE Transactions on System Man Cybern,1976,06(5):387-390.
[2]汤涌,卜广全,易俊.印度“7.30”“7.31”大停电事故分析及启示[J].中国电机工程学报,2012,32(25):167-174.
[3]DOBSON I,CARRERAS B A,LYNCH V E,et al.An initial model for complex dynamics in electric power system blackouts[C]∥Proceedings of the Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.Hawaii:IEEE,2001:51-55.
[4]曹一家,陈彦如,曹丽华,等.复杂系统理论在电力系统中的应用研究展望[J].中国电机工程学报,2012,32(19):1-9.
[5]丁明,韩平平.加权拓扑模型下的小世界电网脆弱性评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2008,28(10):20-25.
[6]吴文可,文福栓,薛禹胜,等.基于马尔科夫链的电力系统连锁故障预测[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(5):29-37.
[7]丁明,肖遥,张晶晶,等.基于事故链及动态故障树的电网连锁故障风险评估模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(4):821-829.
[8]谭玉东,李欣然,蔡晔,等.基于动态潮流的电网连锁故障模型及关键线路识别[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(3):615-622.
[9]马志远,石立宝,姚良忠,等.电网连锁故障的事故链搜索模型及策略研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(13):3 292-3 302.
[10]于洋,黄民翔,辛焕海,等.基于动态仿真的连锁故障分析[J].电力系统自动化,2008,32(20):15-21.
[11]汤涌,宋新立,刘文焯,等.电力系统全过程动态仿真的数值方法-电力系统全过程动态仿真软件开发之一[J].电网技术,2002,26(9):8-12.
[12]杨海涛,吴国旸,宋新立,等.电力系统安全性[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2016.
[13]蔡运清,汪磊,KIP M,等.广域保护(稳控)技术的现状及展望[J].电网技术,2004,28(8):20-25.
[14]VARAIYA P P,WU F F,BIALEK J W.Smart operation of smart grid:risk-limiting dispatch[J].Proceedings of the IEEE,2011,99(1):40-56.
[15]MARCELO A E,CHEN Yousu,HUANG Zhenyu.Reliability value of fast state estimation on power systems[C].IEEE PESTransimission and Distribution Conference and Exposition,2012:1-6.
[16]MARGARET J E,PAUL D H.A”Random Chemistry”algorithm for identifying collections of multiple contingencies that initiate cascading failure[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2012,27(3):1 698-1 705.
[17]刁塑,刘友波,刘俊勇,等.电力系统连锁故障的多层时序运行演化模型与应用[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(S):82-92.
[18]YAO Rui,HUANG Shaowei,SUN Kai,et al.A multi-timescale quasi-dynamic model for simulation of cascading outages[J].IEEETransactions on Power Systems,2016,31(4):3189-3201.
[19]JAHROMI M E,EHASN M,MEYABADI A F.A dynamic fuzzy interactive approach for DG expansion planning[J].International Journal of Electrical Power&Energy Systems,2012,43(1):1 094-1 105.
[20]许梁,孙涛,徐箭,等.基于函数型非参数回归模型的中长期日负荷曲线预测[J].电力自动化设备,2015,35(7):89-94.
[21]范九伦,裴继红.基于可能性分布的聚类有效性[J].电子学报,1998,26(4):113-115.
[22]史慧杰,葛斐,丁明,等.输电网络运行风险的在线评估[J].电网技术,2005,29(6):43-48.
[23]马超,肖先勇,李长松,等.电网连锁性故障识别和风险评估基本框架与模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(31):99-105.
[24]吴旭,张建华,邱威,等.基于N-k故障的地区电网脆弱性评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2012,32(4):93-99.
[25]滕琳,刘万顺,貟志皓,等.电力系统暂态稳定实时紧急控制的研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2003,23(1):64-69.
[26]薛禹胜,刘强,LEDWICH Gerard,等.关于暂态稳定不确定性分析的评述[J].电力系统自动化,2007,31(14):1-5.
[27]孙元章,程林,刘海涛.基于实时运行状态的电力系统运行可靠性评估[J].电网技术,2005,29(15):6-12.
[28]BEZDEK J C.A physical interpretation of fuzzy ISODATA[J].IEEE Transactions on System Man Cybern,1976,06(5):387-390.
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