基于超网络的线上线下舆情演化模型研究
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摘要
舆情交互存在于现实空间与虚拟空间,为具体研究两空间中舆情的演化,首先分析了舆情在不同空间中传播演化的特点及演化过程中相互间的联系.随后,结合改进的有界信任机制构建基于超网络的线上线下舆情演化模型,并针对该模型提出了包括模型初始化模块、信息传播与交互影响模块与双空间同步模块三部分的仿真系统框架.根据同步方向,提出"现实空间-虚拟空间"和"虚拟空间-现实空间"两种同步率,并通过对比仿真实验研究了同步率与空间速度比对舆情演化的影响.
The interaction of public opinion exists in both the real space and the virtual space. To specifically study the evolution process of public opinion in the two spaces, we first analyzed the characteristics of the evolution of public opinion in different spaces and the link between them in the process of evolution.Then, combined with the improved Hegselmann-Krause(HK) model, the online and offline public opinion evolution model based on the supernetwork was constructed. We also proposed a simulation system framework including initialization module, information propagation and interaction module and synchronization module. According to the direction of synchronization, two kinds of synchronization rate, real space-virtual space and virtual space-real space were proposed. Finally, through simulation experiments, the influence of synchronization ratio and space velocity radio on the evolution of public opinion was discussed.
The interaction of public opinion exists in both the real space and the virtual space. To specifically study the evolution process of public opinion in the two spaces, we first analyzed the characteristics of the evolution of public opinion in different spaces and the link between them in the process of evolution.Then, combined with the improved Hegselmann-Krause(HK) model, the online and offline public opinion evolution model based on the supernetwork was constructed. We also proposed a simulation system framework including initialization module, information propagation and interaction module and synchronization module. According to the direction of synchronization, two kinds of synchronization rate, real space-virtual space and virtual space-real space were proposed. Finally, through simulation experiments, the influence of synchronization ratio and space velocity radio on the evolution of public opinion was discussed.
引文
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[10]田高良,司毅,秦岭,等.网络舆情及其应对与上市公司的信息效率[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018, 38(1):46-66.Tian G L, Si Y, Qin L, et al. Internet public opinions, response and listed firms'information efficiency[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2018, 38(1):46-66.
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[15]沈乾,刘怡君.多层同步网络在舆情仿真研究中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2017,37(1):182-190.Shen Q, Liu Y J. Public opinion simulation research based on multilayer synchronization network[J]. SystemsEngineering—Theory&Practice, 2017, 37(1):182-190.
[16]朱恒民,杨柳,马静,等.基于藕合网络的线上线下互动舆情传播模型研究[J].情报杂志,2016, 35(2):139-144.Zhu H M, Yang L, Ma J, et al. Study on public opinion propagation model based on coupled networks under online to offline interaction[J]. Journal of Intelligence, 2016, 35(2):139-144.
[17]王世雄,潘旭伟,姜毅.基于线上线下互动网络的社会共识涌现研究[J].情报杂志,2017,36(3):67-73.Wang S X, Pan X W, Jiang Y. Emergent social consensus in online-offline interacting networks[J]. Journal of Intelligence, 2017, 36(3):67-73.
[18]段杰明.线上/线下网络模型及其信息传播研究[D].成都:电子科技大学,2016.Duan J M. Research on modeling online/offline network and information spreading[D]. Chengdu:University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, 2016.
[19]李丹丹,马静.双层社会网络上的舆情传播动力学分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2017, 37(10):2672-2679.Li D D, Ma J. Public opinion spreading dynamics in a two-layer social network[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2017, 37(10):2672-2679.
[20] Nagurney A, Dong J. Supernetworks:Decision-making for the information age[M]. Cheltenham:Edward Elgar Publishing, 2002.
[21]张亚楠,何建佳.基于关系HK模型的群体观点演化建模与仿真[J]·计算机工程与应用,2016, 52(22):68-74.Zhang Y N, He J J. Modeling and simulating of group opinion evolution based on relationship HK model[J].Computer Engineering and Applications, 2016, 52(22):68-74.
[22]赵海峰,孙艳秋,Edison TSE.基于有界信任模型的地铁突发事件信息传播[J].系统工程理论与实践,2017, 37(12):3244-3252.Zhao H F, Sun Y Q, Edison TSE. Information diffusion in metro emergency based on bounded confidence model[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2017, 37(12):3244-3252.
[23]李根强,罗艳艳,臧学莲.基于有界信任模型的网络社群舆情观点演化研究[J].情报科学,2017, 35(6):63-68.Li G Q, Luo Y Y, Zang X L. Research on the evolution of public opinion in network community based on bounded trust model[J]. Information Science, 2017, 35(6):63-68.
[24]崔爱香,傅彦.加速增长的HK网络演化模型[J].计算机科学,2015(4):37-39.Cui A X,Fu Y. Accelerated-growth HK network evolution model[J]. Computer Science, 2015(4):37-39.
[25] Fu G, Zhang W, Li Z. Opinion dynamics of modified Hegselmann-Krause model in a group-based population with heterogeneous bounded confidence[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics&Its Applications, 2015, 419(419):558-565.
[26] Su W, Chen G, Hong Y. Noise leads to quasi-consensus of Hegselmann-Krause opinion dynamics[J]. Automatica,2015, 85:448-454.
[2] Galam S. Minority opinion spreading in random geometry[J]. The European Physical Journal B—Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, 2002, 25(4):403-406.
[3] Sznajd-Weron K, Sznajd J. Opinion evolution in closed community[J]. International Journal of Modern Physics C, 2000, 11(6):1157-1165.
[4] Sudbury A. The proportion of the population never hearing a rumour[J]. Journal of Applied Probability, 1985,22(2):443-446.
[5] Deffuant G, Neau D, Amblard F. Mixing beliefs among interacting agents[J]. Advances in Complex Systems,2000(3):87-98.
[6] Hegselmann R, Krause U. Opinion dynamics and bounded confidence models, analysis and simulation[J]. Journal of Artificial Societies&Social Simulation, 2002, 5(3):2-34.
[7]王光辉,刘怡君·网络舆论危机事件的蔓延扩散效应研究[J].中国管理科学,2015,23(7):119-126.Wang G H, Liu Y J. Study on spread mechanism and diffusion effect of network public opinion crisis[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2015, 23(7):119-126.
[8]曾润喜,杜换霞,王君泽·网络舆情指标体系、方法与模型比较研究[J].情报杂志,2014, 33(4):96-101.Zeng R X, Du H X, Wang J Z. Comparative study of internet public opinion index system, method and model[J].Journal of Intelligence, 2014, 33(4):96-101.
[9]刘怡君,李倩倩,田儒雅,等·基于超网络的社会舆论形成及应用研究[J].中国科学院院刊,2012, 27(5):560-568.Liu Y J, Li Q Q, Tian R Y, et al. Formation and application of public opinion based on supernetwork analysis[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2012, 27(5):560-568.
[10]田高良,司毅,秦岭,等.网络舆情及其应对与上市公司的信息效率[J].系统工程理论与实践,2018, 38(1):46-66.Tian G L, Si Y, Qin L, et al. Internet public opinions, response and listed firms'information efficiency[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2018, 38(1):46-66.
[11] Zhan X X, Liu C, Zhou G, et al. Mutual feedback between epidemic spreading and information diffusion[J].Computer Science, 2015, 28(10):1278-1280.
[12] Wang W, Tang M, Yang H, et al. Asymmetrically interacting spreading dynamics on complex layered networks[J].Scientific Reports, 2014, 4(7502):5097.
[13] Granell C, G6mez S,Arenas A. Competing spreading processes on multiplex networks:Awareness and epidemics[J]. Physical review E, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics, 2014, 90(1):012808.
[14]于凯,荣莉莉,郭文强,等.基于线上线下网络的舆情传播模型研究[J].管理评论,2015, 27(8):200-212.Yu K, Rong L L, Guo W Q, et al. A model of public opinion dissemination on online-offline networks[J].Management Review, 2015, 27(8):200-212.
[15]沈乾,刘怡君.多层同步网络在舆情仿真研究中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2017,37(1):182-190.Shen Q, Liu Y J. Public opinion simulation research based on multilayer synchronization network[J]. SystemsEngineering—Theory&Practice, 2017, 37(1):182-190.
[16]朱恒民,杨柳,马静,等.基于藕合网络的线上线下互动舆情传播模型研究[J].情报杂志,2016, 35(2):139-144.Zhu H M, Yang L, Ma J, et al. Study on public opinion propagation model based on coupled networks under online to offline interaction[J]. Journal of Intelligence, 2016, 35(2):139-144.
[17]王世雄,潘旭伟,姜毅.基于线上线下互动网络的社会共识涌现研究[J].情报杂志,2017,36(3):67-73.Wang S X, Pan X W, Jiang Y. Emergent social consensus in online-offline interacting networks[J]. Journal of Intelligence, 2017, 36(3):67-73.
[18]段杰明.线上/线下网络模型及其信息传播研究[D].成都:电子科技大学,2016.Duan J M. Research on modeling online/offline network and information spreading[D]. Chengdu:University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, 2016.
[19]李丹丹,马静.双层社会网络上的舆情传播动力学分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2017, 37(10):2672-2679.Li D D, Ma J. Public opinion spreading dynamics in a two-layer social network[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2017, 37(10):2672-2679.
[20] Nagurney A, Dong J. Supernetworks:Decision-making for the information age[M]. Cheltenham:Edward Elgar Publishing, 2002.
[21]张亚楠,何建佳.基于关系HK模型的群体观点演化建模与仿真[J]·计算机工程与应用,2016, 52(22):68-74.Zhang Y N, He J J. Modeling and simulating of group opinion evolution based on relationship HK model[J].Computer Engineering and Applications, 2016, 52(22):68-74.
[22]赵海峰,孙艳秋,Edison TSE.基于有界信任模型的地铁突发事件信息传播[J].系统工程理论与实践,2017, 37(12):3244-3252.Zhao H F, Sun Y Q, Edison TSE. Information diffusion in metro emergency based on bounded confidence model[J]. Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice, 2017, 37(12):3244-3252.
[23]李根强,罗艳艳,臧学莲.基于有界信任模型的网络社群舆情观点演化研究[J].情报科学,2017, 35(6):63-68.Li G Q, Luo Y Y, Zang X L. Research on the evolution of public opinion in network community based on bounded trust model[J]. Information Science, 2017, 35(6):63-68.
[24]崔爱香,傅彦.加速增长的HK网络演化模型[J].计算机科学,2015(4):37-39.Cui A X,Fu Y. Accelerated-growth HK network evolution model[J]. Computer Science, 2015(4):37-39.
[25] Fu G, Zhang W, Li Z. Opinion dynamics of modified Hegselmann-Krause model in a group-based population with heterogeneous bounded confidence[J]. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics&Its Applications, 2015, 419(419):558-565.
[26] Su W, Chen G, Hong Y. Noise leads to quasi-consensus of Hegselmann-Krause opinion dynamics[J]. Automatica,2015, 85:448-454.
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