基于“情景-应对”数据的高层官员应急决策行为分析框架
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摘要
为研究突发事件应急处置过程中关键官员的决策行为,充实面向高层官员的决策行为实证研究方法,提出基于"情景-应对"数据的高层官员决策行为分析框架。通过设置情景、决策者、决策过程和决策变量以及变量间的作用关系建立框架运行理论内核,从情景选择到决策样本"生成→采集→处理→分析"各环节搭建框架支持完成高层官员决策行为的研究。通过某高层官员地震应急决策模拟演练实例,验证该分析框架的有效性。研究结果表明:基于"情景-应对"数据的分析框架可实现对高层官员决策行为的实证研究,可优化开发以支持更多元化的研究。
In order to study the decision-making behavior of key officials in the emergency response process,and enrich the empirical research methods of decision-making behavior for the senior officials,an analysis framework for the decision-making behavior of senior officials based on the scenario-response data was put forward. The theoretical core of framework running was established through setting the variables of scenarios,decision makers,decision-making process and decision-making and their interaction relationship,then the framework was built by all links from scenario selection to the generating,collecting,processing and analysis of decision-making samples,so as to support the study on the decision-making behavior of senior officials. Finally,a simulation drill on the emergency decision-making of a certain earthquake was conducted to collect the decision-making samples of senior officials,and a preliminary analysis was completed under the framework to verify the effectiveness of the analysis framework.
In order to study the decision-making behavior of key officials in the emergency response process,and enrich the empirical research methods of decision-making behavior for the senior officials,an analysis framework for the decision-making behavior of senior officials based on the scenario-response data was put forward. The theoretical core of framework running was established through setting the variables of scenarios,decision makers,decision-making process and decision-making and their interaction relationship,then the framework was built by all links from scenario selection to the generating,collecting,processing and analysis of decision-making samples,so as to support the study on the decision-making behavior of senior officials. Finally,a simulation drill on the emergency decision-making of a certain earthquake was conducted to collect the decision-making samples of senior officials,and a preliminary analysis was completed under the framework to verify the effectiveness of the analysis framework.
引文
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[3]李荣志,蔡建淮.领导干部突发事件应急意识的现状调查与分析---基于某省的问卷调查[J].中国行政管理,2013(1):76-79.LI Rongzhi,CAI Jianhuai.The current status and its analysis of the leading cadre emergency consciousness[J].Chinese Public Administration,2013(1):76-79.
[4]张云翌.领导风格对突发事件决策中群体思维的影响研究---团队情绪的中介作用[D].西安:西北工业大学,2016.
[5]李湖生,刘铁民.突发事件应急准备体系研究进展及关键科学问题[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2009,5(6):5-10.LI Husheng,LIU Tiemin.The research progresses and key scientific problems on emergency preparedness system[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2009,5(6):5-10.
[6]刘铁民.应急预案重大突发事件情景构建---基于“情景-任务-能力”应急预案编制技术研究之一[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(4):5-12.LIU Tiemin.Studies on scenes’construction of emergency planning-partⅠof emergency planning technology based on“scenetask-ability”[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2012,8(4):5-12.
[7]刘樑,许欢,李仕明.非常规突发事件应急管理中的情景及情景-应对理论综述研究[J].电子科技大学学报(社会科学版),2013(6):20-24.LIU Liang,XU Huan,LI Shiming.Review on the scenario and scenario-response theory for unconventional emergency management[J].Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(Social Sciences Edition),2013(6):20-24.
[8]赫伯特A.西蒙.管理行为[M].第四版.北京:机械工业出版社,2013:71-88.
[9]江渝.论决策行为的三种分析范式[J].软科学,2005,19(2):11-14.JIANG Yu.Discussion on the three kinds of analysis paradigm of decision behaviors[J].Soft Science,2005,19(2):11-14.
[10]KAHNEMAND,TVERSKY A.Prospect theory:an analysis of decision under risk[J].Econometrica,1979,47(2):263-291.
[11]黄成.行为决策理论及决策行为实证研究方法探讨[J].经济经纬,2006(5):102-105.HUANG Cheng.A Probe into behavior decision-making theory and empirical research method of decision-making behavior[J].Economic Survey,2006(5):102-105.
[12]朱丽叶·M.科宾,安塞尔姆·L.施特劳斯.质性研究的基础:形成扎根理论的程序与方法[M].第三版.重庆:重庆大学出版社,2015.
[13]阿巴斯·塔沙克里,查尔斯·特德莱.混合方法论:定性方法和定量方法的结合[M].重庆:重庆大学出版社,2010.
[14]中国政府网.国家地震应急预案[EB/OL].(2012-09-21)[2018-11-15].http://www.gov.cn/yjgl/2012-09/21/content_223033-7.htm.
[15]首都之窗.北京市地震应急预案(简本)[EB/OL].(2008-06-23)[2018-11-15].http://zfxxgk.beijing.gov.cn/110017/gzdt5-3/2008-12/10/content_177946.shtml.