基于长三角扩容准自然实验的区域一体化水污染效应研究
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摘要
长三角一体化政策能否实现经济与环境的"双赢",不仅对探索可复制、可推广的绿色发展新路子至关重要,更决定了长江流域生态保护战略能否顺利实现。为避免区域一体化测度偏误,本文首次从城市群扩容视角出发探究长三角一体化的环境影响。以2003—2015年中国215个地级市面板数据为研究样本,构建2010年长三角扩容的准自然实验,综合利用回归分析法与合成控制法,聚焦于长三角地区重要且严峻的水污染问题,从排放和治理两个角度检验并比较了长三角扩容在整体城市、原位城市和新进城市的水污染效应的共同趋势与区域差异。在此基础上,拓展STIRPAT模型,结合理论推演与实证检验,进一步探究了长三角扩容水污染效应的深层作用机制。研究发现:①整体而言,长三角扩容显著提高了工业废水排放强度,而明显降低了污水集中处理率,在整体长三角城市群带来了负面环境效应,且这种负面环境效应在原位城市要强于新进城市。②就作用机制而言,虽然长期层面城市间经济联系增加有利于实现节能减排,但扩容政策影响下短期内经济联系的增强却带来了负面环境效应;长三角扩容通过产业专业化分工和产业差异化分工显著提高了工业废水排放强度,导致产业分工的环境正外部性无法凸显;虽然环境规制的增强有助于缓解长三角地区水环境压力,但扩容政策却通过放松环境规制加剧了原位城市与新进城市的水污染。长三角一体化应以经济环境双维一体化为目标,扩容政策的制定与实施应充分考虑经济环境协调发展。
Whether the integration of Yangtze River Delta can achieve a win-win situation for both economy and environment is not only of great importance to explore the new path of green development that can be copied and popularized,but also to determine the realization of the ecological protection strategies of the Yangtze River Delta. In order to avoid the measurement bias of regional integration,this paper explored environmental impacts of the integration in the Yangtze River Delta from the perspective of the enlargement of urban agglomeration for the first time. Moreover,this paper took the panel data of 215 cities in China from 2003 to 2015 as samples,and constructed a quasi-natural experiment of the enlargement in the Yangtze River Delta. In addition,it focused on the important and severe water pollution issues of the Yangtze River Delta,comprehensively used regression analysis methods and synthetic control methods,and examined and analyzed the common trends and the regional differences of water pollution effects of the enlargement in whole cities,incumbent cities and new cities from the view of pollution discharge and treatment. On this basis,the STIRPAT model was extended,and the deep mechanisms of water pollution effects of the enlargement were further explored by combining theoretical deduction and empirical test. The results showed that: ①Overall,the enlargement of the Yangtze River Delta significantly increased the intensity of industrial waste water discharge,and obviously reduced the rate of centralized sewage treatment,which brought about the negative environmental effects in whole cities,and such negative environmental effects were stronger in incumbent cities than that in new cities. ②With respect to the mechanisms,the increase of economic connection between cities was conducive to the realization of energy conservation and pollution discharge reduction without considering the impacts of the enlargement.However,taking the influences of the enlargement into account,the rapid strengthening of economic connections in the short term would have negative impacts on water environment. The enlargement of the Yangtze River Delta significantly improved the intensity of industrial waste water discharge through industrial specialization and industrial differentiation,which resulted in the absence of environmental positive externalities of industrial division. Although the enhancement of environmental regulation was helpful to alleviate the pressure of water environment in the Yangtze River Delta,the enlargement intensified the water pollution effects of incumbent cities and new cities by relaxing the environmental regulation. The integration of the Yangtze River Delta should aim at both economic integration and environmental integration. The formulation and implementation of the enlargement should take the coordinated development of economy and environment into full consideration.
Whether the integration of Yangtze River Delta can achieve a win-win situation for both economy and environment is not only of great importance to explore the new path of green development that can be copied and popularized,but also to determine the realization of the ecological protection strategies of the Yangtze River Delta. In order to avoid the measurement bias of regional integration,this paper explored environmental impacts of the integration in the Yangtze River Delta from the perspective of the enlargement of urban agglomeration for the first time. Moreover,this paper took the panel data of 215 cities in China from 2003 to 2015 as samples,and constructed a quasi-natural experiment of the enlargement in the Yangtze River Delta. In addition,it focused on the important and severe water pollution issues of the Yangtze River Delta,comprehensively used regression analysis methods and synthetic control methods,and examined and analyzed the common trends and the regional differences of water pollution effects of the enlargement in whole cities,incumbent cities and new cities from the view of pollution discharge and treatment. On this basis,the STIRPAT model was extended,and the deep mechanisms of water pollution effects of the enlargement were further explored by combining theoretical deduction and empirical test. The results showed that: ①Overall,the enlargement of the Yangtze River Delta significantly increased the intensity of industrial waste water discharge,and obviously reduced the rate of centralized sewage treatment,which brought about the negative environmental effects in whole cities,and such negative environmental effects were stronger in incumbent cities than that in new cities. ②With respect to the mechanisms,the increase of economic connection between cities was conducive to the realization of energy conservation and pollution discharge reduction without considering the impacts of the enlargement.However,taking the influences of the enlargement into account,the rapid strengthening of economic connections in the short term would have negative impacts on water environment. The enlargement of the Yangtze River Delta significantly improved the intensity of industrial waste water discharge through industrial specialization and industrial differentiation,which resulted in the absence of environmental positive externalities of industrial division. Although the enhancement of environmental regulation was helpful to alleviate the pressure of water environment in the Yangtze River Delta,the enlargement intensified the water pollution effects of incumbent cities and new cities by relaxing the environmental regulation. The integration of the Yangtze River Delta should aim at both economic integration and environmental integration. The formulation and implementation of the enlargement should take the coordinated development of economy and environment into full consideration.
引文
[1]国家发展和改革委员会.长江三角洲地区区域规划[R/OL].(2010-06-07)[2018-11-02].http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbghwb/201006/W020140221367550405937.pdf.
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[14]ABADIE A,DIAMOND A,HAINMUELLER J.Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies:estimating the effect of California’s tobacco control program[J].Journal of the American statistical association,2010,105:493-505.
[15]DIETZ T,ROSA E A.Rethinking the environmental impacts of population,affluence,and technology[J].Human ecology review,1994,1(2):277-300.
[16]张宇,蒋殿春.FDI、政府监管与中国水污染——基于产业结构与技术进步分解指标的实证检验[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(2):491-514.
[17]CAINELLI G,FRACASSO A,VITTUCCI MARZETTI G.Spatial agglomeration and productivity in Italy:a panel smooth transition regression approach[J].Papers in regional science,2015,94(S1):S39-S67.
[18]刘小峰,盛昭瀚,金帅.基于适应性管理的水污染控制体系构建——以太湖流域为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(2):73-78.
[19]COMBES P P.Economic structure and local growth:France,1984-1993[J].Journal of urban economics,2000,47(3):329-355.
[20]张远军.城市化与中国省际经济增长:1987-2012——基于贸易开放的视角[J].金融研究,2014(7):49-62.
[2]刘乃全,吴友.长三角扩容能促进区域经济共同增长吗[J].中国工业经济,2017(6):79-97.
[3]BAAS T,BRCKER H.Macroeconomic impact of eastern enlargement on Germany and UK:evidence from a CGE Model[J].Applied economics letters,2010,17(2):125-128.
[4]侯赟慧,刘志彪,岳中刚.长三角区域经济一体化进程的社会网络分析[J].中国软科学,2009(12):90-101.
[5]范剑勇.长三角一体化、地区专业化与制造业空间转移[J].管理世界,2004(11):77-84+96.
[6]张可.区域一体化有利于减排吗?[J].金融研究,2018(1):67-83.
[7]ZHU X,IERLAND E V.The enlargement of the European Union:effects on trade and emissions of greenhouse gases[J].Ecological economics,2006,57(1):1-14.
[8]GMEZ-CALVET R,CONESA D,GMEZ-CALVET A R,et al.Energy efficiency in the European Union:what can be learned from the joint application of directional distance functions and slacks-based measures?[J].Applied energy,2014,132(11):137-154.
[9]CHEN X,HUANG B.Club membership and transboundary pollution:evidence from the European Union enlargement[J].Energy economics,2016,53:230-237.
[10]BAYCAN I O.Air pollution,economic growth,and the European Union enlargement[J].International journal of economics&finance,2013,5(12):121-126.
[11]贺祥民,赖永剑,聂爱云.区域一体化与地区环境污染排放收敛——基于长三角区域一体化的自然实验研究[J].软科学,2016,30(3):41-45.
[12]HAN F,XIE R,LU Y,et al.The effects of urban agglomeration economies on carbon emissions:evidence from Chinese cities[J].Journal of cleaner production,2018,172:1096-1110.
[13]LIU H.Comprehensive carrying capacity of the urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta,China[J].Habitat international,2012,36(4):462-470.
[14]ABADIE A,DIAMOND A,HAINMUELLER J.Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies:estimating the effect of California’s tobacco control program[J].Journal of the American statistical association,2010,105:493-505.
[15]DIETZ T,ROSA E A.Rethinking the environmental impacts of population,affluence,and technology[J].Human ecology review,1994,1(2):277-300.
[16]张宇,蒋殿春.FDI、政府监管与中国水污染——基于产业结构与技术进步分解指标的实证检验[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(2):491-514.
[17]CAINELLI G,FRACASSO A,VITTUCCI MARZETTI G.Spatial agglomeration and productivity in Italy:a panel smooth transition regression approach[J].Papers in regional science,2015,94(S1):S39-S67.
[18]刘小峰,盛昭瀚,金帅.基于适应性管理的水污染控制体系构建——以太湖流域为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(2):73-78.
[19]COMBES P P.Economic structure and local growth:France,1984-1993[J].Journal of urban economics,2000,47(3):329-355.
[20]张远军.城市化与中国省际经济增长:1987-2012——基于贸易开放的视角[J].金融研究,2014(7):49-62.
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