荆江三口分流变化贡献率及其对三峡水库调度响应
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摘要
为系统评估三峡水库调度对三口分流过程的影响,基于大量的原观数据,依据控制变量思想,通过对比分析及径流还原的方法,定量计算了三峡水库运行前后三口分流量减幅与各单一影响因子的贡献率。结果表明:(1)无论水库调度与否,天然来流都是分流量减少的首要因素。三峡水库运行以来,枝城站2003-2008年与2009-2015年平均径流量分别为4 064、4 128亿m3,远低于水库运行前的4 453亿m3,超过60%的分流量减少都是天然来流偏枯所致。(2)三峡水库优化调度后,随着蓄水时间提前与起蓄水位提高,三口分流量进一步减少。2003-2008年,天然来流、水库调度、河床冲刷在分流量减少过程中贡献率分别为76.19%、10.32%、13.49%;而2009-2015年,三者贡献率分别为66.05%、19.75%、14.20%。
To evaluate the influences of the operation of TGR on the diversion process of the three outlets,this paper investigates systematically the variation process of the runoff at the three outlets based on substantially raw data and principles of variable control.Specifically,by employing the comparative analysis and the calculation method of runoff reduction,it quantifies the changing magnitude of the runoff at the three outlets and also estimates the contribution rate of different factors in different periods after the implementation of TGR's operation.It is demonstrated that(1) inflow difference from Yangtze River is the primary factor causing the runoff reduction of the three outlets.After the operation of TGR,the Yangtze River was in dry years.The annual averaged runoff at Zhicheng Station from 2003-2008 and 2009-2015 are respectively 4 064×108 and 4 128×108 m3,which are significantly smaller than their counterpart before the operation of TGR(4 453×108 m3).Therefore,over 60% of runoff reduction can be attributed to the variation of natural inflow discharge.(2) As the flow is retained by the TGR,as the advance of impounding time and improvement of impounded level,the runoff of the three outlets further reduced.From 2003-2008,the contribution rates of natural flow,reservoir regulation and sediment trapping to the runoff reduction at the three outlets were 76.19%,10.32%,13.49%,while their counterparts after optimal operation of TGR became 60.05%,19.75%,14.20%respectively.
To evaluate the influences of the operation of TGR on the diversion process of the three outlets,this paper investigates systematically the variation process of the runoff at the three outlets based on substantially raw data and principles of variable control.Specifically,by employing the comparative analysis and the calculation method of runoff reduction,it quantifies the changing magnitude of the runoff at the three outlets and also estimates the contribution rate of different factors in different periods after the implementation of TGR's operation.It is demonstrated that(1) inflow difference from Yangtze River is the primary factor causing the runoff reduction of the three outlets.After the operation of TGR,the Yangtze River was in dry years.The annual averaged runoff at Zhicheng Station from 2003-2008 and 2009-2015 are respectively 4 064×108 and 4 128×108 m3,which are significantly smaller than their counterpart before the operation of TGR(4 453×108 m3).Therefore,over 60% of runoff reduction can be attributed to the variation of natural inflow discharge.(2) As the flow is retained by the TGR,as the advance of impounding time and improvement of impounded level,the runoff of the three outlets further reduced.From 2003-2008,the contribution rates of natural flow,reservoir regulation and sediment trapping to the runoff reduction at the three outlets were 76.19%,10.32%,13.49%,while their counterparts after optimal operation of TGR became 60.05%,19.75%,14.20%respectively.
引文
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[15]Dai Z,Chu A,Stive M J F,et al.Impact of the Three Gorges Dam Overruled by an Extreme Climate Hazard[J].Natural Hazards Review,2012,13(4):310-316.
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[17]Ou C,Li J,Zhou Y,et al.Evolution characters of water exchange abilities between Dongting Lake and Yangtze River[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2014,24(4):731-745.
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[22]赖锡军,姜加虎,黄群.三峡工程蓄水对洞庭湖水情的影响格局及其作用机制[J].湖泊科学,2012,24(2):178-184.
[23]Nakayama T,Watanabe M.Role of flood storage ability of lakes in the Changjiang River catchment[J].Global&Planetary Change,2008,63(1):9-22.
[24]Yang S,Zhang J,Xu X.Influence of the Three Gorges Dam on downstream delivery of sediment and its environmental implications,Yangtze River[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2007,34,L10401,doi:10.1029/2007GL029472.
[25]Sun Z,Huang Q,Opp C,et al.Impacts and Implications of Major Changes Caused by the Three Gorges Dam in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River,China[J].Water Resources Management,2012,26(12):3 367-3 378.
[26]何征,万荣荣,戴雪,等.近30年洞庭湖季节性水情变化及其对江湖水量交换变化的响应[J].湖泊科学,2015,27(6):991-996.
[27]朱玲玲,陈剑池,袁晶,等.基于时段控制因子的荆江三口分流变化趋势研究[J].水力发电学报,2015,34(2):103-111.
[28]李义天,郭小虎,唐金武,等.三峡建库后荆江三口分流的变化[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2009,17(1):21-31.
[2]Wang S,Chen Z,Smith D G.Anastomosing river system along the subsiding middle Yangtze River basin,southern China[J].Catena,2005,60(2):147-163.
[3]Du Y,Cai S,Zhang X,et al.Interpretation of the environmental change of Dongting Lake,middle reach of Yangtze River,China,by210Pb measurment and satellite image analysis[J].Geomorphology,2001,41(2):171-181.
[4]Hu Q,Feng S,Guo H,et al.Interactions of the Yangtze river flow and hydrologic processes of the Poyang Lake,China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2007,347(1):90-100.
[5]Wang G,Jiang T,Blender R,et al.Yangtze 1/f discharge variability and the interacting river-lake system[J].Journal of Hydrology,2008,351(1):230-237.
[6]Yin H,Li C.Human impact on floods and flood disasters on the Yangtze River[J].Geomorphology,2001,41(2):105-109.
[7]Bonnet M P,Barroux G,Martinez J M et al.Floodplain hydrology in an Amazon floodplain lake(Lago Grande de Curuaí)[J].Journal of Hydrology,2008,349(1):18-30.
[8]Lesack L F W,Melack J M.Flooding Hydrology and Mixture Dynamics of Lake Water Derived from Multiple Sources in an Amazon Floodplain Lake[J].Water Resources Research,1995,31(2):329-345.
[9]Han J,Sun Z,Li Y.Combined effects of multiple large-scale hydraulic engineering on water stages in the middle Yangtze River[J].Geomorphology,2017,298:31-40.
[10]韩其为.江湖流量分配变化导致长江中游新的洪水形势[J].泥沙研究,1999,(5):1-12.
[11]许全喜,胡功宇,袁晶.近50年来荆江三口分流分沙变化研究[J].泥沙研究,2009,(5):1-8.
[12]李义天,倪晋仁.泥沙输移对长江中游水位抬升的影响[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,1998,(3):5-11.
[13]C J,Li J,Lu D,et al.The hydrological effect between Jingjiang River and Dongting Lake during the initial period of Three Gorges Project operation[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2010,20(5):771-786.
[14]Dai Z,Du J,Li J,et al.Runoff characteristics of the Changjiang River during 2006:Effect of extreme drought and the impounding of the Three Gorges Dam[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35(7):521-539.
[15]Dai Z,Chu A,Stive M J F,et al.Impact of the Three Gorges Dam Overruled by an Extreme Climate Hazard[J].Natural Hazards Review,2012,13(4):310-316.
[16]朱玲玲,许全喜,戴明龙.荆江三口分流变化及三峡水库蓄水影响[J].水科学进展,2016,27(6):822-831.
[17]Ou C,Li J,Zhou Y,et al.Evolution characters of water exchange abilities between Dongting Lake and Yangtze River[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2014,24(4):731-745.
[18]Ou C,Li J,Zhang Z,et al.Effects of the dispatch modes of the Three Gorges Reservoir on the water regimes in the Dongting Lake area in typical years[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2012,22(4):594-608.
[19]赖锡军,姜加虎,黄群.洞庭湖地区水系水动力耦合数值模型[J].海洋与湖沼,2008,39(1):74-81.
[20]Han D,Fang H W,Bai J,et al.A coupled 1-D and 2-D channel network mathematical model used for flow calculations in the middle reaches of the yangtze river[J].Journal of Hydrodynamics,2011,23(4):521-526.
[21]Zhang R,Zhang S H,Xu W,et al.Flow regime of the three outlets on the south bank of Jingjiang River,China:an impact assessment of the Three Gorges Reservoir for 2003-2010[J].Stochastic Environmental Research&Risk Assessment,2015,29(8):2 047-2 060.
[22]赖锡军,姜加虎,黄群.三峡工程蓄水对洞庭湖水情的影响格局及其作用机制[J].湖泊科学,2012,24(2):178-184.
[23]Nakayama T,Watanabe M.Role of flood storage ability of lakes in the Changjiang River catchment[J].Global&Planetary Change,2008,63(1):9-22.
[24]Yang S,Zhang J,Xu X.Influence of the Three Gorges Dam on downstream delivery of sediment and its environmental implications,Yangtze River[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2007,34,L10401,doi:10.1029/2007GL029472.
[25]Sun Z,Huang Q,Opp C,et al.Impacts and Implications of Major Changes Caused by the Three Gorges Dam in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River,China[J].Water Resources Management,2012,26(12):3 367-3 378.
[26]何征,万荣荣,戴雪,等.近30年洞庭湖季节性水情变化及其对江湖水量交换变化的响应[J].湖泊科学,2015,27(6):991-996.
[27]朱玲玲,陈剑池,袁晶,等.基于时段控制因子的荆江三口分流变化趋势研究[J].水力发电学报,2015,34(2):103-111.
[28]李义天,郭小虎,唐金武,等.三峡建库后荆江三口分流的变化[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2009,17(1):21-31.
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