基于可变模糊集理论的溃坝后果综合评价
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摘要
我国大坝数量多,一旦溃坝,将给下游人民生命和财产安全带来不可估量的损害,及时恰当地将大坝风险管理纳入实际应用显得极为迫切。大坝风险后果综合评价作为大坝风险管理中不可或缺的一环,评价过程涉及众多相关性及不确定性因子,主要包括生命损失、经济损失、社会影响和环境影响4个方面。以可变模糊集理论为基础,构建溃坝后果综合评价的评价指标体系及评价等级标准,结合层次分析法确定各评价指标权重,建立了基于可变模糊集理论的溃坝后果综合评价模型,并将该模型应用于江西省5座水库溃坝后果综合评价。结果表明,基于可变模糊集理论建立的综合评价模型所得评价结果全面合理,能够较完善地反映大坝的风险后果,具有操作步骤简单、计算过程严密等特点,实用性良好。
The paper is inclined to offer a comprehensive evaluation method of the risk consequences of the dam failure from the point of view of the dam risk control. As a matter of fact,dam failure sample cases were also quoted to bring about immeasurable loss both of human lives and material properties to the downstream local residence. Therefore,it is of great urgency to incorporate the dam risk management into the practice timely and purposefully in appropriate manners. And,generally speaking,such application evaluation process has to involve a number of correlated uncertainty factors,including the following 4 factors: human and domestic stock life loss,the economic loss,the social andenvironmental sufferings. Seeing the above needs,based on the variable fuzzy set theory in regard to the dynamic variability problems,we have managed to build up evaluation indexes and standards in accordance with the principle of the maximized membership-degree and the 4 kinds of variable parameters based on the variable parameters involving the given problem. In addition,we have also established a comprehensive evaluation mode for the dam failure consequences based on the variable fuzzy mode in association with the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of each evaluation index. The final evaluation results take the level eigenvalues into the corresponding interval ways to determine the evaluation model,which is suitable for the comprehensive evaluation of the consequences of the dam failures of 5 reservoirs in Jiangxi Province. The research demonstrates that the evaluation results we have gained from the integrated evaluation model based on the variable fuzzy set turns out to be objective and reasonable,which can more faithfully reflect the severity of the disaster of the dam collapse and serve as a reference basis for the government control and academic research. At the same time,the evaluation model is also advantageous in simple operation,precise calculation,with clear-cut logic documentation,so that it can be nicely applicable as a novel approach to comprehensive evaluation of the dam damage consequences.
The paper is inclined to offer a comprehensive evaluation method of the risk consequences of the dam failure from the point of view of the dam risk control. As a matter of fact,dam failure sample cases were also quoted to bring about immeasurable loss both of human lives and material properties to the downstream local residence. Therefore,it is of great urgency to incorporate the dam risk management into the practice timely and purposefully in appropriate manners. And,generally speaking,such application evaluation process has to involve a number of correlated uncertainty factors,including the following 4 factors: human and domestic stock life loss,the economic loss,the social andenvironmental sufferings. Seeing the above needs,based on the variable fuzzy set theory in regard to the dynamic variability problems,we have managed to build up evaluation indexes and standards in accordance with the principle of the maximized membership-degree and the 4 kinds of variable parameters based on the variable parameters involving the given problem. In addition,we have also established a comprehensive evaluation mode for the dam failure consequences based on the variable fuzzy mode in association with the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of each evaluation index. The final evaluation results take the level eigenvalues into the corresponding interval ways to determine the evaluation model,which is suitable for the comprehensive evaluation of the consequences of the dam failures of 5 reservoirs in Jiangxi Province. The research demonstrates that the evaluation results we have gained from the integrated evaluation model based on the variable fuzzy set turns out to be objective and reasonable,which can more faithfully reflect the severity of the disaster of the dam collapse and serve as a reference basis for the government control and academic research. At the same time,the evaluation model is also advantageous in simple operation,precise calculation,with clear-cut logic documentation,so that it can be nicely applicable as a novel approach to comprehensive evaluation of the dam damage consequences.
引文
[1] YAN Lei(严磊). Study on operation safety risk analysismethod of dam(大坝运行安全风险分析方法研究)[D]. Tianjin:Tianjin University,2011.
[2] RICHARD B,WAITE R E. Evaluation for a series ofutah power and light hydropower dams,including risk as-sessment:The Owner Perspective[C]//Proceedings of the6th ASDSO Annual Conference. Albuquerque, NewMexico:Association of State Dam Safety Official,1989:1-5.
[3] ANCOLD. Guidelines on assessment of the consequence ofdam failure[M]. Tatura:Australian National CommitteeCommittee on Large Dams,2000.
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[6] WANG Renzhong(王仁钟),LI Lei(李雷),SHENGJinbao(盛金保). On criterion of social and environmen-tal risk of reservoir dams[J]. Journal of Safety and Envi-ronment(安全与环境学报),2006,6(1):8-11.
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[12] SUN Weiwei(孙玮玮),LI Lei(李雷),ZHENGHaoyao(郑昊尧). Dam risk consequences comprehen-sive evaluation model based on the method of gray corre-lation[J]. Yellow River(人民黄河),2012,34(4):102-104.
[13] SUN Weiwei(孙玮玮),LI Lei(李雷). Comprehensivemodel for assessing hazard consequences caused by damfailure based on principal component analysis[J]. Jour-nal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute(长江科学院院报),2010,27(12):22-26.
[14] ZOU Qiang(邹强),ZHOU Jianzhong(周建中),YANGXiaoling(杨小玲),et al. A comprehensive assessmentmodel for severity degree of dam failure impact based onattribute interval recognition theory[J]. Journal of Si-chuan University:Engineering Science Edition(四川大学学报:工程科学版),2011,43(2):45-50.
[15] ZHU S,ZHOU J,XIE M,et al. A hybrid model inte-grated variable fuzzy set theory and set pair analysis forwater quality assessment in Huai River Basin[C]//Pro-ceeding of IEEE International Conference on KnowledgeEngineering and Applications. Washington,D. C.:Insti-tute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2017:251-254.
[16] ARUNRAJ N S,MANDAL S,MAITI J. Modeling un-certainty in risk assessment:an integrated approach withfuzzy set theory and Monte Carlo simulation[J]. AccidentAnalysis&Prevention,2013,55(3):242-255.
[17] WEI Zhaozhen(魏兆珍),FENG Ping(冯平). Analysisof rainfall-runoff evolution characteristics in the LuanheRiver basin based on variable fuzzy set theory[J]. Jour-nal of Hydraulic Engineering(水利学报),2011,42(9):1051-1057.
[18] Ministry of Water Resources of the People’s Republic ofChina(中华人民共和国水利部). SL 258—2000 Safe-ty evaluation guide for reservoir dam(水库大坝安全评价导则)[S]. Beijing:China Water Conservancy andHydropower Press,2000.
[19] Ministry of Water Resources of the People’s Republic ofChina(中华人民共和国水利部). SL XX—2010Guidelines for risk assessment of flood control(Draft forconsultation)(防洪风险评价导则(征求意见稿))[S]. Beijing:China Water Conservancy and Hydropow-er Press,2010.
[20] LI Lei(李雷),WANG Renzhong(王仁钟),SHENGJinbao(盛金宝),et al. Dam risk assessment and riskmanagement(大坝风险评价与风险管理)[M]. Bei-jing:China Water Conservancy and HydropowerPress,2006.
[21] ZADEH L A. Fuzzy sets[J]. Information and Control,1965,8(3):338-353.
[22] CHEN Shouyu(陈守煜). Philosophical basis of system-ic dialectical theory of relative subordinate function[J].Chinese Journal of Systems Science(系统辩证学学报),1996(2):26-29.
[23] CHEN Shouyu(陈守煜). Philosophical foundation ofvariable fuzzy sets theory[J]. Journal of Dalian Univer-sity of Technology:Social Sciences(大连理工大学学报:社会科学版),2005,26(1):53-57.
[24] CHEN Shouyu(陈守煜). System fuzzy decision theoryand its application(系统模糊决策理论与应用)[M].Dalian:Dalian University of Technology Press,1994.
[25] CHEN Shouyu(陈守煜). Variable fuzzy set theory andmodel and its application(可变模糊集理论与模型及其应用)[M]. Dalian:Dalian University of TechnologyPress,2009:1-36.
[26] HE Fujuan(何福娟),LIU Yongqiang(刘永强). Eval-uating groundwater quality based on dynamic variablefuzzy comprehensive method[J]. Journal of Water Re-sources and Water Engineering(水资源与水工程学报),2017,28(6):38-43.
[27] WANG Yaping(王亚平),YUE Qiang(岳强),RENChenxi(任晨曦),et al. Assessing the health of plainreservoirs using variable fuzzy system:theory and casestudy[J]. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage(灌溉排水学报),2017,36(12):87-94.
[28] LI Peng(李鹏). Research on the safety evaluation of exist-ing building based on variable fuzzy sets theory(基于可变模糊集理论的既有房屋安全评价研究)[D]. Xi’an:Xi’anUniversity of Architecture and Technology,2016.
[29] LI Qi(李奇). Dam risk consequence evaluation modelbased on set pair analysis(基于集对分析的大坝风险后果评价模型研究)[D]. Zhengzhou:Zhengzhou Uni-versity,2017.
[30] LI Lei(李雷),WANG Renzhong(王仁钟),SHENGJinbao(盛金宝). Study on evaluation models of severitydegree of dam failure impact[J]. Journal of Safety andEnvironment(安全与环境学报),2006,6(1):1-4.
[2] RICHARD B,WAITE R E. Evaluation for a series ofutah power and light hydropower dams,including risk as-sessment:The Owner Perspective[C]//Proceedings of the6th ASDSO Annual Conference. Albuquerque, NewMexico:Association of State Dam Safety Official,1989:1-5.
[3] ANCOLD. Guidelines on assessment of the consequence ofdam failure[M]. Tatura:Australian National CommitteeCommittee on Large Dams,2000.
[4] WANG X L,ZHOU Z Y,SUN R R,et al. Fuzzy hierar-chy comprehensive evaluation on dam-break risk analysis[J]. Advanced Materials Research,2011,383/384/385/386/387/388/389/390:2151-2155.
[5] ZHENG H Y,SHENG J B,PENG X H,et al.Earth-rock dam risk consequence’s comprehensive e-valuation under drought condition[J]. Advanced Ma-terials Research, 2012, 518/519/520/521/522/523:4022-4025.
[6] WANG Renzhong(王仁钟),LI Lei(李雷),SHENGJinbao(盛金保). On criterion of social and environmen-tal risk of reservoir dams[J]. Journal of Safety and Envi-ronment(安全与环境学报),2006,6(1):8-11.
[7] XU Jintao(徐金涛). Risk analysis of dam break of plainreservoir based on fuzzy theory(基于模糊理论的平原水库风险分析研究)[D]. Taian:Shandong AgriculturalUniversity,2017.
[8] WU Shengwen(吴胜文),QIN Peng(秦鹏),GAO Jian(高健),et al. Application of entropy weight and set pairanalysis theory to risk assessment of dam operation[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute(长江科学院院报),2016,33(6):36-40.
[9] LI Zongkun(李宗坤),LI Qi(李奇),GE Wei(葛巍),et al. Comprehensive assessment of dam risk conse-quences caused by the dam failure based on the set pairanalysis[J]. Yellow River(人民黄河),2016,38(9):111-114.
[10] SUN Weiwei(孙玮玮),LI Lei(李雷). Comprehensivehazard assessment model for the consequences caused bythe dam failure based on the matter element method[J].Journal of Safety and Environment(安全与环境学报),2009,9(2):173-176.
[11] SUN Weiwei(孙玮玮),LI Lei(李雷). Comprehensivehazard assessment model for consequences caused bydam failure based on fuzzy mathematics method[J].Hydro-Science and Engineering(水利水运工程学报),2010(4):16-20.
[12] SUN Weiwei(孙玮玮),LI Lei(李雷),ZHENGHaoyao(郑昊尧). Dam risk consequences comprehen-sive evaluation model based on the method of gray corre-lation[J]. Yellow River(人民黄河),2012,34(4):102-104.
[13] SUN Weiwei(孙玮玮),LI Lei(李雷). Comprehensivemodel for assessing hazard consequences caused by damfailure based on principal component analysis[J]. Jour-nal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute(长江科学院院报),2010,27(12):22-26.
[14] ZOU Qiang(邹强),ZHOU Jianzhong(周建中),YANGXiaoling(杨小玲),et al. A comprehensive assessmentmodel for severity degree of dam failure impact based onattribute interval recognition theory[J]. Journal of Si-chuan University:Engineering Science Edition(四川大学学报:工程科学版),2011,43(2):45-50.
[15] ZHU S,ZHOU J,XIE M,et al. A hybrid model inte-grated variable fuzzy set theory and set pair analysis forwater quality assessment in Huai River Basin[C]//Pro-ceeding of IEEE International Conference on KnowledgeEngineering and Applications. Washington,D. C.:Insti-tute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2017:251-254.
[16] ARUNRAJ N S,MANDAL S,MAITI J. Modeling un-certainty in risk assessment:an integrated approach withfuzzy set theory and Monte Carlo simulation[J]. AccidentAnalysis&Prevention,2013,55(3):242-255.
[17] WEI Zhaozhen(魏兆珍),FENG Ping(冯平). Analysisof rainfall-runoff evolution characteristics in the LuanheRiver basin based on variable fuzzy set theory[J]. Jour-nal of Hydraulic Engineering(水利学报),2011,42(9):1051-1057.
[18] Ministry of Water Resources of the People’s Republic ofChina(中华人民共和国水利部). SL 258—2000 Safe-ty evaluation guide for reservoir dam(水库大坝安全评价导则)[S]. Beijing:China Water Conservancy andHydropower Press,2000.
[19] Ministry of Water Resources of the People’s Republic ofChina(中华人民共和国水利部). SL XX—2010Guidelines for risk assessment of flood control(Draft forconsultation)(防洪风险评价导则(征求意见稿))[S]. Beijing:China Water Conservancy and Hydropow-er Press,2010.
[20] LI Lei(李雷),WANG Renzhong(王仁钟),SHENGJinbao(盛金宝),et al. Dam risk assessment and riskmanagement(大坝风险评价与风险管理)[M]. Bei-jing:China Water Conservancy and HydropowerPress,2006.
[21] ZADEH L A. Fuzzy sets[J]. Information and Control,1965,8(3):338-353.
[22] CHEN Shouyu(陈守煜). Philosophical basis of system-ic dialectical theory of relative subordinate function[J].Chinese Journal of Systems Science(系统辩证学学报),1996(2):26-29.
[23] CHEN Shouyu(陈守煜). Philosophical foundation ofvariable fuzzy sets theory[J]. Journal of Dalian Univer-sity of Technology:Social Sciences(大连理工大学学报:社会科学版),2005,26(1):53-57.
[24] CHEN Shouyu(陈守煜). System fuzzy decision theoryand its application(系统模糊决策理论与应用)[M].Dalian:Dalian University of Technology Press,1994.
[25] CHEN Shouyu(陈守煜). Variable fuzzy set theory andmodel and its application(可变模糊集理论与模型及其应用)[M]. Dalian:Dalian University of TechnologyPress,2009:1-36.
[26] HE Fujuan(何福娟),LIU Yongqiang(刘永强). Eval-uating groundwater quality based on dynamic variablefuzzy comprehensive method[J]. Journal of Water Re-sources and Water Engineering(水资源与水工程学报),2017,28(6):38-43.
[27] WANG Yaping(王亚平),YUE Qiang(岳强),RENChenxi(任晨曦),et al. Assessing the health of plainreservoirs using variable fuzzy system:theory and casestudy[J]. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage(灌溉排水学报),2017,36(12):87-94.
[28] LI Peng(李鹏). Research on the safety evaluation of exist-ing building based on variable fuzzy sets theory(基于可变模糊集理论的既有房屋安全评价研究)[D]. Xi’an:Xi’anUniversity of Architecture and Technology,2016.
[29] LI Qi(李奇). Dam risk consequence evaluation modelbased on set pair analysis(基于集对分析的大坝风险后果评价模型研究)[D]. Zhengzhou:Zhengzhou Uni-versity,2017.
[30] LI Lei(李雷),WANG Renzhong(王仁钟),SHENGJinbao(盛金宝). Study on evaluation models of severitydegree of dam failure impact[J]. Journal of Safety andEnvironment(安全与环境学报),2006,6(1):1-4.