时间序列模型在辽西降水量动态预测的应用
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摘要
文中结合时间序列模型,对辽宁西部地区的降水量进行了动态预测。研究结果表明:时间序列模型预测的年降水量和区域实测年降水量之间的相关系数达到0.839 6,在4个季节中,夏季预测的降水量相关度最高,达到0.872 5,冬季预测值和实测值相关性最低,为0.590 3,但也可满足降水量预测精度要求。研究成果对于辽宁西部地区降水量动态预测提供参考价值。
Combined with the time sequence model, the dynamic forecast is made for the precipitation of western Liaoning Province.The study result show that, the correlation coefficient between the forecasting annual precipitation by the time sequence model and the regional measured precipitation reach to 0.839 6. In the four seasons, the highest correlation coefficient of the forecast occurred in summer with the value 0.872 5, and the lowest value occurred in winter with the value 0.590 3, but could meet the precision requirement of the precipitation forecast. The study results could provide reference for dynamic forecast of precipitation in western Liaoning Province.
Combined with the time sequence model, the dynamic forecast is made for the precipitation of western Liaoning Province.The study result show that, the correlation coefficient between the forecasting annual precipitation by the time sequence model and the regional measured precipitation reach to 0.839 6. In the four seasons, the highest correlation coefficient of the forecast occurred in summer with the value 0.872 5, and the lowest value occurred in winter with the value 0.590 3, but could meet the precision requirement of the precipitation forecast. The study results could provide reference for dynamic forecast of precipitation in western Liaoning Province.
引文
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[2]闭祖良,张展羽,朱新国,刘莉.基于RBF神经网络马尔可夫模型的降水量预测[J].节水灌溉,2010(11):1-3+10.
[3]侯泽宇,卢文喜,陈社明.基于小波神经网络方法的降水量预测研究[J].节水灌溉,2013(03):31-34.
[4]郭宝丽.基于灰色神经网络的年降水量组合预测模型研究[D].重庆大学,2014.
[5]刘方,胡彩虹,何鹏飞.基于数理统计方法的降水量预测模型建立及应用[J].气象与环境科学,2014(02):89-93.
[6]孙吉辉.基于人工神经网络模型的降水量预测研究[D].中国海洋大学,2008.
[7]张新民,金彦兆,刘佳莉,李元红.甘肃省水资源时间序列模型及其变化规律研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2003(06):46-49.
[8]李荣峰.水文非线性时间序列分析的自记忆模型研究[D].西安理工大学,2005.
[9]李禄.太子河流域参考作物腾发量估算与预测模型研究[D].沈阳农业大学,2008.
[10]魏琳,徐姝,张治倩.海河流域汛期降水量多尺度分析及预测研究[J].水利规划与设计,2017(10):60-63+86.
[11]王野.葫芦岛市城市化发展对降水时空分布的影响分析[J].水利规划与设计,2018(01):58-60.